Spatial predictions of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making.

Considering genetic relatedness among species has long been argued as an important step toward measuring biological diversity more accurately, rather than relying solely on species richness. Some researchers have correlated measures of phylogenetic diversity and species richness across a series of sites and suggest that values of phylogenetic diversity do not differ enough from those of species richness to justify their inclusion in conservation planning. We compared predictions of species richness and 10 measures of phylogenetic diversity by creating distribution models for 168 individual species of a species-rich plant family, the Cape Proteaceae. When we used average amounts of land set aside for conservation to compare areas selected on the basis of species richness with areas selected on the basis of phylogenetic diversity, correlations between species richness and different measures of phylogenetic diversity varied considerably. Correlations between species richness and measures that were based on the length of phylogenetic tree branches and tree shape were weaker than those that were based on tree shape alone. Elevation explained up to 31% of the segregation of species rich versus phylogenetically rich areas. Given these results, the increased availability of molecular data, and the known ecological effect of phylogenetically rich communities, consideration of phylogenetic diversity in conservation decision making may be feasible and informative.

Genetic diversity in widespread species is not congruent with species richness in alpine plant communities.

The Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD) aims at the conservation of all three levels of biodiversity, that is, ecosystems, species and genes. Genetic diversity represents evolutionary potential and is important for ecosystem functioning. Unfortunately, genetic diversity in natural populations is hardly considered in conservation strategies because it is difficult to measure and has been hypothesised to co-vary with species richness. This means that species richness is taken as a surrogate of genetic diversity in conservation planning, though their relationship has not been properly evaluated. We tested whether the genetic and species levels of biodiversity co-vary, using a large-scale and multi-species approach. We chose the high-mountain flora of the Alps and the Carpathians as study systems and demonstrate that species richness and genetic diversity are not correlated. Species richness thus cannot act as a surrogate for genetic diversity. Our results have important consequences for implementing the CBD when designing conservation strategies.

Ecological and land use studies along elevational gradients

Mountain regions and UNESCO Mountain Biosphere Reserves (MBRs) encapsulate broad elevational ranges, cover large gradients of geological, topographical and climatic diversity, and thus host greater biodiversity than the surrounding lowlands. Much of the biological richness in MBRs results from the interaction of climatic contrasts and gravitational forces along elevational gradients. External forces such as atmospheric change and human land use interact with these gradients, and result in distinct landscape patchiness, ie mosaics of land cover types within and across elevational belts. The management of MBRs influences land use and land cover, which affects biodiversity and ecosystem processes, both of which provide goods and services to society. Due to their broad environmental and biological diversity, MBRs are ideally suited for global change research and will be increasingly important in illustrating biodiversity conservation. This article summarizes the ecologically relevant results of an international workshop on elevational gradients that aimed to achieve a synthesis of the major ecosystem and biodiversity conditions and drivers in an altitude context. The workshop developed a core research agenda for MBRs that prioritizes long-term research and changes in land use across a broad elevational range.

Absence of p53 gene mutations in a tumor panel representative of pilocytic astrocytoma diversity using a p53 functional assay.

Although p53-gene mutations occur with significant frequency in diffuse low-grade and high-grade astrocytomas, and are postulated to play an important role in tumorigenesis in these cases, the role of the p53 gene in pilocytic astrocytomas remains unclear. Published data using DNA-based assays for p53-gene analysis in these tumors have shown contradictory results in mutation frequency (0-14%). It is not known whether these heterogeneous results stem from the biological diversity of this tumor group or from technical problems. To re-evaluate p53-gene status in pilocytic tumors, we analyzed 18 tumors chosen to represent the clinical and biological heterogeneity of this tumor type with respect to anatomical location, patient age, gender, ethnic origin (Caucasian or Japanese) and the concomitant occurrence of neurofibromatosis type 1 (NF1). All primary tumors were histologically diagnosed as pilocytic astrocytoma (WHO grade I), except for one anaplastic pilocytic astrocytoma (WHO grade III) which developed in an NF1 patient and recurred as glioblastoma multiforme (WHO grade IV). p53 mutations were detected using an assay in yeast which tests the transcriptional activity of p53 proteins synthesized from tumor mRNA-derived p53-cDNA templates. None of 18 tumors, including 3 NF1-related tumors, showed p53-gene mutations between and including exons 4 and 11. We conclude that p53-gene mutations are extremely rare findings in pilocytic astrocytomas, and are absent even in those exceptional cases in which malignant progression of such tumors has occurred.

Distribution and population genetic variation of cryptic species of the Alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus (Ephemeroptera: Baetidae) in the Central Alps.

BACKGROUND: Many species contain evolutionarily distinct groups that are genetically highly differentiated but morphologically difficult to distinguish (i.e., cryptic species). The presence of cryptic species poses significant challenges for the accurate assessment of biodiversity and, if unrecognized, may lead to erroneous inferences in many fields of biological research and conservation. RESULTS: We tested for cryptic genetic variation within the broadly distributed alpine mayfly Baetis alpinus across several major European drainages in the central Alps. Bayesian clustering and multivariate analyses of nuclear microsatellite loci, combined with phylogenetic analyses of mitochondrial DNA, were used to assess population genetic structure and diversity. We identified two genetically highly differentiated lineages (A and B) that had no obvious differences in regional distribution patterns, and occurred in local sympatry. Furthermore, the two lineages differed in relative abundance, overall levels of genetic diversity as well as patterns of population structure: lineage A was abundant, widely distributed and had a higher level of genetic variation, whereas lineage B was less abundant, more prevalent in spring-fed tributaries than glacier-fed streams and restricted to high elevations. Subsequent morphological analyses revealed that traits previously acknowledged as intraspecific variation of B. alpinus in fact segregated these two lineages. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our findings indicate that even common and apparently ecologically well-studied species may consist of reproductively isolated units, with distinct evolutionary histories and likely different ecology and evolutionary potential. These findings emphasize the need to investigate hidden diversity even in well-known species to allow for appropriate assessment of biological diversity and conservation measures.

Deletion of delta-opioid receptor in mice alters skin differentiation and delays wound healing.

In addition to their well-known antinociceptive action, opioids can modulate non-neuronal functions, such as immune activity and physiology of different cell types. Several findings suggest that the delta-opioid receptor (DOR) and its endogenous ligands (enkephalins) are important players in cell differentiation and proliferation. Here we show the expression of DOR in mouse skin and human skin cultured fibroblasts and keratinocytes using RT-PCR. In DOR knock-out (KO) mice, a phenotype of thinner epidermis and higher expression of cell differentiation marker cytokeratin 10 (CK 10) were observed compared with wild type (WT). Using a burn wound model, significant wound healing delay (about 2 days) and severe epidermal hypertrophy were shown at the wound margin of DOR KO mice. This wound healing delay was further investigated by immunohistochemistry using markers for proliferation, differentiation, re-epithelialization, and dermal repair (CK 6, CK 10, and collagen IV). The levels of all these markers were increased in wounds of KO mice compared with WT. During the wound healing, the epidermal thickness in KO mice augments faster and exceeds that of the WT by day 3. These results suggest an essential role of DOR in skin differentiation, proliferation, and migration, factors that are important for wound healing.

Molecular Proxies for Climate Maladaptation in a Long-Lived Tree (Pinus pinaster Aiton, Pinaceae).

Understanding adaptive genetic responses to climate change is a main challenge for preserving biological diversity. Successful predictive models for climate-driven range shifts of species depend on the integration of information on adaptation, including that derived from genomic studies. Long-lived forest trees can experience substantial environmental change across generations, which results in a much more prominent adaptation lag than in annual species. Here, we show that candidate-gene SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) can be used as predictors of maladaptation to climate in maritime pine (Pinus pinaster Aiton), an outcrossing long-lived keystone tree. A set of 18 SNPs potentially associated with climate, 5 of them involving amino acid-changing variants, were retained after performing logistic regression, latent factor mixed models, and Bayesian analyses of SNP-climate correlations. These relationships identified temperature as an important adaptive driver in maritime pine and highlighted that selective forces are operating differentially in geographically discrete gene pools. The frequency of the locally advantageous alleles at these selected loci was strongly correlated with survival in a common garden under extreme (hot and dry) climate conditions, which suggests that candidate-gene SNPs can be used to forecast the likely destiny of natural forest ecosystems under climate change scenarios. Differential levels of forest decline are anticipated for distinct maritime pine gene pools. Geographically defined molecular proxies for climate adaptation will thus critically enhance the predictive power of range-shift models and help establish mitigation measures for long-lived keystone forest trees in the face of impending climate change.

Functionally and phylogenetically diverse plant communities key to soil biota

Recent studies assessing the role of biological diversity for ecosystem functioning indicate that the diversity of functional traits and the evolutionary history of species in a community, not the number of taxonomic units, ultimately drives the biodiversity-ecosystem-function relationship. Here, we simultaneously assessed the importance of plant functional trait and phylogenetic diversity as predictors of major trophic groups of soil biota (abundance and diversity), six years from the onset of a grassland biodiversity experiment. Plant functional and phylogenetic diversity were generally better predictors of soil biota than the traditionally used species or functional group richness. Functional diversity was a reliable predictor for most biota, with the exception of soil microorganisms, which were better predicted by phylogenetic diversity. These results provide empirical support for the idea that the diversity of plant functional traits and the diversity of evolutionary lineages in a community are important for maintaining higher abundances and diversity of soil communities.

The future of terrestrial mammals in the Mediterranean basin under climate change.

The Mediterranean basin is considered a hotspot of biological diversity with a long history of modification of natural ecosystems by human activities, and is one of the regions that will face extensive changes in climate. For 181 terrestrial mammals (68% of all Mediterranean mammals), we used an ensemble forecasting approach to model the future (approx. 2100) potential distribution under climate change considering five climate change model outputs for two climate scenarios. Overall, a substantial number of Mediterranean mammals will be severely threatened by future climate change, particularly endemic species. Moreover, we found important changes in potential species richness owing to climate change, with some areas (e.g. montane region in central Italy) gaining species, while most of the region will be losing species (mainly Spain and North Africa). Existing protected areas (PAs) will probably be strongly influenced by climate change, with most PAs in Africa, the Middle East and Spain losing a substantial number of species, and those PAs gaining species (e.g. central Italy and southern France) will experience a substantial shift in species composition.

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The contribution of biodiversity and ecosystem services to our health care needs is significant, both for the development of modern pharmaceuticals (Chivian and Bernstein 2008; Newmann and Cragg 2007; see also chapter on contribution of biodiversity to pharmaceuticals in this volume) and for their uses in traditional medicine (WHO 2013). Long before the rise of pharmaceutical development, societies have been drawing on their traditional knowledge, skills and customary practices, using various resources provided to them by nature to prevent, diagnose and treat health problems. Today, these practices continue to inform health-care delivery at the level of local communities in many places around the world (WHO 2013). In socioecological contexts such as these, several resources used for food, cultural and spiritual purposes are also used as medicines (Unnikrishnan and Suneetha 2012). Traditional medicine practices provide more than health care to these communities; they are considered a way of life and are founded on endogenous strengths, including knowledge, skills and capabilities.

Conservation genetics and population monitoring of the Alpine Salamander (Salamandra Atra) :

SUMMARYIn the context of the biodiversity crisis, amphibians are experiencing the most severe worldwide decline of all vertebrates and are in urgent need of better management. Efficient conservation strategies rely on sound knowledge of the species biology and of the genetic and demographic processes that might impair their welfare. Nonetheless, these processes are poorly understood in amphibians. Delineating population boundaries remains consequently problematic for these species, while it is of critical importance to define adequate management units for conservation. In this study, our attention focused on the alpine salamander (Salamandra atra), a species that deserves much interest in terms of both conservation biology and evolution. This endemic alpine species shows peculiar life-history traits (viviparity, reduced activity period, slow maturation) and has a slow population turnover, which might be problematic for its persistence in a changing environment. Due to its elusive behaviour (individuals spend most of their time underground and are unavailable for sampling), dynamic processes of gene and individuals were poorly understood for that species. Consequently, its conservation status could hardly be reliably assessed. Similarly the fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra) also poses special challenges for conservation, as no clear demarcation of geographical populations exists and dispersal patterns are poorly known. Through a phylogeographic analysis, we first studied the evolutionary history of the alpine salamander to better document the distribution of the genetic diversity along its geographical range. This study highlighted the presence of multiple divergent lineages in Italy together with a clear genetic divergence between populations from Northern and Dinaric Alps. These signs of cryptic genetic differentiation, which are not accounted for by the current taxonomy of the species, should not be neglected for further definition of conservation units. In addition, our data supported glacial survival of the species in northern peripheral glacial réfugia and nunataks, a pattern rarely documented for long-lived species. Then, we evaluated the level of gene flow between populations at the local scale and tested for asymmetries in male versus female dispersal using both field-based (mark-recapture) and genetic approaches. This study revealed high level of gene flow between populations, which stems mainly from male dispersal. This corroborated the idea that salamanders are much better dispersers than hitherto thought and provided a well- supported example of male-biased dispersal in amphibians. In a third step, based on a mark- recapture survey, we addressed the problem of sampling unavailability in alpine salamanders and evaluated its impact on two monitoring methods. We showed that about three quarters of individuals were unavailable for sampling during sampling sessions, a proportion that can vary with climatic conditions. If not taken into account, these complexities would result in false assumptions on population trends and misdirect conservation efforts. Finally, regarding the daunting task of delineating management units, our attention was drawn on the fire salamander. We conducted a local population genetic study that revealed high levels of gene flow among sampling sites. Management units for this species should consequently be large. Interestingly, despite the presence of several landscape features often reported to act as barriers, genetic breaks occurred at unexpected places. This suggests that landscape features may rather have idiosyncratic effects on population structure. In conclusion, this work brought new insights on both genetic and demographic processes occurring in salamanders. The results suggest that some biological paradigms should be taken with caution when particular species are in focus. Species- specific studies remain thus fundamental for a better understanding of species evolution and conservation, particularly in the context of current global changes.RESUMEDans le contexte de la crise de la biodiversité actuelle, les amphibiens subissent le déclin le plus important de tous les vertébrés et ont urgemment besoin d'une meilleure protection. L'établissement de stratégies de conservation efficaces repose sur des connaissances solides de la biologie des espèces et des processus génétiques et démographiques pouvant menacer leur survie. Ces processus sont néanmoins encore peu étudiés chez les amphibiens.Dans cette étude, notre attention s'est portée sur la salamandre noire (Salamandra atra), une espèce endémique des Alpes dont les traits d'histoire de vie atypiques (viviparité, phase d'activité réduite, lent turnover des populations) pourraient la rendre très vulnérable face aux changements environnementaux. Par ailleurs, en raison de son comportement cryptique (les individus passent la plupart de leur temps sous terre) la dynamique des gènes et des individus est mal comprise chez cette espèce. Il est donc difficile d'évaluer son statut de conservation de manière fiable. La salamandre tachetée {Salamandra salamandra), pour qui il n'existe aucune démarcation géographique apparente des populations, pose également des problèmes en termes de gestion. Dans un premier temps, nous avons étudié l'histoire évolutive de la salamandre noire afin de mieux décrire la distribution de sa diversité génétique au sein de son aire géographique. Cela a permis de mettre en évidence la présence de multiples lignées en Italie, ainsi qu'une nette divergence entre les populations du nord des Alpes et des Alpes dinariques. Ces résultats seront à prendre en compte lorsqu'il s'agira de définir des unités de conservation pour cette espèce. D'autre part, nos données soutiennent l'hypothèse d'une survie glaciaire dans des refuges nordiques périglaciaires ou dans des nunataks, fait rarement documenté pour une espèce longévive. Nous avons ensuite évalué la différentiation génétique des populations à l'échelle locale, ce qui a révélé d'important flux de gènes, ainsi qu'une asymétrie de dispersion en faveur des mâles. Ces résultats corroborent l'idée que les amphibiens dispersent mieux que ce que l'on pensait, et fournissent un exemple robuste de dispersion biaisée en faveur des mâles chez les amphibiens. Nous avons ensuite abordé le problème de Γ inaccessibilité des individus à la capture. Nous avons montré qu'environ trois quarts des individus sont inaccessibles lors des échantillonnages, une proportion qui peut varier en fonction des conditions climatiques. Ignoré, ce processus pourrait entraîner une mauvaise interprétation des fluctuations de populations ainsi qu'une mauvaise allocation des efforts de conservation. Concernant la définition d'unités de gestion pour la salamandre tachetée, nous avons pu mettre en évidence un flux de gènes important entre les sites échantillonnés. Les unités de gestion pour cette espèce devraient donc être étendues. Etonnamment, malgré la présence de nombreuses barrières potentielles au flux de gènes, les démarcations génétiques sont apparues à des endroits inattendus. En conclusion, ce travail a apporté une meilleure compréhension des processus génétiques et démographiques en action chez les salamandres. Les résultats suggèrent que certains paradigmes biologiques devraient être considérés avec précaution quand il s'agit de les appliquer à des espèces particulières. Les études spécifiques demeurent donc fondamentales pour une meilleure compréhension de l'évolution des espèces et leur conservation, tout particulièrement dans le contexte des changements globaux actuels.

Conservation phylogeography: does historical diversity contribute to regional vulnerability in European tree frogs (Hyla arborea)?

Documenting and preserving the genetic diversity of populations, which conditions their long-term survival, have become a major issue in conservation biology. The loss of diversity often documented in declining populations is usually assumed to result from human disturbances; however, historical biogeographic events, otherwise known to strongly impact diversity, are rarely considered in this context. We apply a multilocus phylogeographic study to investigate the late-Quaternary history of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) with declining populations in the northern and western part of its distribution range. Mitochondrial and nuclear polymorphisms reveal high genetic diversity in the Balkan Peninsula, with a spatial structure moulded by the last glaciations. While two of the main refugial lineages remained limited to the Balkans (Adriatic coast, southern Balkans), a third one expanded to recolonize Northern and Western Europe, loosing much of its diversity in the process. Our findings show that mobile and a priori homogeneous taxa may also display substructure within glacial refugia ('refugia within refugia') and emphasize the importance of the Balkans as a major European biodiversity centre. Moreover, the distribution of diversity roughly coincides with regional conservation situations, consistent with the idea that historically impoverished genetic diversity may interact with anthropogenic disturbances, and increase the vulnerability of populations. Phylogeographic models seem important to fully appreciate the risks of local declines and inform conservation strategies.

Using environmental niche modeling to understand biological invasions in a changing world

L'activité humaine affecte particulièrement la biodiversité, qui décline à une vitesse préoccupante. Parmi les facteurs réduisant la biodiversité, on trouve les espèces envahissantes. Symptomatiques d'un monde globalisé où l'échange se fait à l'échelle de la planète, certaines espèces, animales ou végétales, sont introduites, volontairement ou accidentellement par l'activité humaine (par exemple lors des échanges commerciaux ou par les voyageurs). Ainsi, ces espèces atteignent des régions qu'elles n'auraient jamais pu coloniser naturellement. Une fois introduites, l'absence de compétiteur peut les rendre particulièrement nuisibles. Ces nuisances sont plus ou moins directes, allant de problèmes sanitaires (p. ex. les piqûres très aigües des fourmis de feu, originaires d'Amérique du Sud et colonisant à une vitesse fulgurante les USA, l'Australie ou la Chine) à des nuisances sur la biodiversité (p. ex. les ravages de la perche du Nil sur la diversité unique des poissons Cichlidés du Lac Victoria). Il est donc important de pouvoir prévenir de telles introductions. De plus, pour le biologiste, ces espèces représentent une rare occasion de pouvoir comprendre les mécanismes évolutifs et écologiques qui expliquent le succès des envahissantes dans un monde où les équilibres sont bouleversés. Les modèles de niche environnementale sont un outil particulièrement utile dans le cadre de cette problématique. En reliant des observations d'espèces aux conditions environnementales où elles se trouvent, ils peuvent prédire la distribution potentielle des envahissantes, permettant d'anticiper et de mieux limiter leur impact. Toutefois, ils reposent sur des hypothèses pas évidentes à démontrer. L'une d'entre elle étant que la niche d'une espèce reste constante dans le temps, et dans l'espace. Le premier objectif de mon travail est de comparer si la niche d'une espèce envahissante diffère entre sa distribution d'origine native et celle d'origine introduite. En étudiant 50 espèces de plantes et 168 espèces de Mammifères, je démontre que c'est le cas et que par corolaire, il est possible de prédire leurs distributions. La deuxième partie de mon travail consiste à comprendre quelles seront les interactions entre le changement climatiques et les envahissantes, afin d'estimer leur impact sous un climat réchauffé. En étudiant la distribution de 49 espèces de plantes envahissantes, je démontre que les montagnes, régions relativement préservée par ce problème, deviendront bien plus exposées aux risques d'invasions biologiques. J'expose aussi comment les interactions entre l'activité humaine, le réchauffement climatique et les espèces envahissantes menacent la vigne sauvage en Europe et propose des zones géographiques particulièrement adaptée pour sa conservation. Enfin, à une échelle beaucoup plus locale, je montre qu'il est possible d'utiliser ces modèles de niches le long d'une rivière à une échelle extrêmement fine (1 mètre), potentiellement utile pour rationnaliser des mesures de conservations sur le terrain. - Biodiversity is significantly negatively affected by human activity. Invasive species are one of the most important factors causing biodiversity's decline. Intimately linked to the era of global trade, some plant or animal species can be accidentally or casually introduced with human activity (e.g. trade or travel). In this way, these species reach areas they could never reach through natural dispersal. Once naturalized, the lack of competitors can make these species highly noxious. Their effect is more or less direct, from sanitary problems (e.g. the harmful sting of Fire Ants, originating from South America and now spreading throughout USA, China and Australia) or can affect biodiversity (e.g. the Nile perch, devastating the one of the richest hotspot of Cichlid fishes diversity in Lake Victoria). It is thus important to prevent such harmful introductions. Moreover, invasive species represent for biologists one of the rare occasions to understand the evolutionary and ecological mechanisms behind the success of invaders in a world where natural equilibrium is already disturbed. Environmental niche models are particularly useful to tackle this problematic. By relating species observation to the environmental conditions where they occur, they can predict the potential distribution of invasive species, allowing a better anticipation and thus limiting their impact. However, they rely on strong assumption, one of the most important being that the modeled niche remains constant through space and time. The first aim of my thesis is to quantify the difference between the native and the invaded niche. By investigating 50 plant and 168 mammal species, I show that the niche is at least partially conserved, supporting for reliable predictions of invasive' s potential distributions. The second aim of my thesis is to understand the possible interactions between climate change and invasive species, such as to assess their impact under a warmer climate. By studying 49 invasive plant species, I show that mountain areas, which were relatively preserved, will become more suitable for biological invasions. Additionally, I show how interactions between human activity, global warming and invasive species are threatening the wild grapevine in Europe and propose geographical areas particularly adapted for conservation measures. Finally, at a much finer scale where conservation plannings ultimately take place, I show that it is possible to model the niche at very high resolution (1 meter) in an alluvial area allowing better prioritizations for conservation.

Predicting potential distribution of the jaguar (Panthera onca) in Mexico: identification of priority areas for conservation

Aim The jaguar, Panthera onca, is a species of global conservation concern. In Mexico, the northernmost part of its distribution range, its conservation status, is particularly critical, while its potential and actual distribution is poorly known. We propose an ensemble model (EM) of the potential distribution for the jaguar in Mexico and identify the priority areas for conservation.Location Mexico.Methods We generated our EM based on three presence-only methods (Ecological Niche Factor Analysis, Mahalanobis distance, Maxent) and considering environmental, biological and anthropogenic factors. We used this model to evaluate the efficacy of the existing Mexican protected areas (PAs), to evaluate the adequacy of the jaguar conservation units (JCUs) and to propose new areas that should be considered for conservation and management of the species in Mexico.Results Our results outline that 16% of Mexico (c. 312,000 km2) can be considered as suitable for the presence of the jaguar. Furthermore, 13% of the suitable areas are included in existing PAs and 14% are included in JCUs (Sanderson et al., 2002).Main conclusions Clearly much more should be carried out to establish a proactive conservation strategy. Based on our results, we propose here new jaguar conservation and management areas that are important for a nationwide conservation blueprint.

Niche, distribution and global change : modeling insights into biogeography and conservation biology Olivier Broennimann

RESUME Les évidences montrant que les changements globaux affectent la biodiversité s'accumulent. Les facteurs les plus influant dans ce processus sont les changements et destructions d'habitat, l'expansion des espèces envahissantes et l'impact des changements climatiques. Une évaluation pertinente de la réponse des espèces face à ces changements est essentielle pour proposer des mesures permettant de réduire le déclin actuel de la biodiversité. La modélisation de la répartition d'espèces basée sur la niche (NBM) est l'un des rares outils permettant cette évaluation. Néanmoins, leur application dans le contexte des changements globaux repose sur des hypothèses restrictives et demande une interprétation critique. Ce travail présente une série d'études de cas investiguant les possibilités et limitations de cette approche pour prédire l'impact des changements globaux. Deux études traitant des menaces sur les espèces rares et en danger d'extinction sont présentées. Les caractéristiques éco-géographiques de 118 plantes avec un haut degré de priorité de conservation sont revues. La prévalence des types de rareté sont analysées en relation avec leur risque d'extinction UICN. La revue souligne l'importance de la conservation à l'échelle régionale. Une évaluation de la rareté à échelle globale peut être trompeuse pour certaine espèces car elle ne tient pas en compte des différents degrés de rareté que présente une espèce à différentes échelles spatiales. La deuxième étude test une approche pour améliorer l'échantillonnage d'espèces rares en incluant des phases itératives de modélisation et d'échantillonnage sur le terrain. L'application de l'approche en biologie de la conservation (illustrée ici par le cas du chardon bleu, Eryngium alpinum), permettrait de réduire le temps et les coûts d'échantillonnage. Deux études sur l'impact des changements climatiques sur la faune et la flore africaine sont présentées. La première étude évalue la sensibilité de 227 mammifères africains face aux climatiques d'ici 2050. Elle montre qu'un nombre important d'espèces pourrait être bientôt en danger d'extinction et que les parcs nationaux africains (principalement ceux situé en milieux xériques) pourraient ne pas remplir leur mandat de protection de la biodiversité dans le futur. La seconde étude modélise l'aire de répartition en 2050 de 975 espèces de plantes endémiques du sud de l'Afrique. L'étude propose l'inclusion de méthodes améliorant la prédiction des risques liés aux changements climatiques. Elle propose également une méthode pour estimer a priori la sensibilité d'une espèce aux changements climatiques à partir de ses propriétés écologiques et des caractéristiques de son aire de répartition. Trois études illustrent l'utilisation des modèles dans l'étude des invasions biologiques. Une première étude relate l'expansion de la laitue sáuvage (Lactuca serriola) vers le nord de l'Europe en lien avec les changements du climat depuis 250 ans. La deuxième étude analyse le potentiel d'invasion de la centaurée tachetée (Centaures maculosa), une mauvaise herbe importée en Amérique du nord vers 1890. L'étude apporte la preuve qu'une espèce envahissante peut occuper une niche climatique différente après introduction sur un autre continent. Les modèles basés sur l'aire native prédisent de manière incorrecte l'entier de l'aire envahie mais permettent de prévoir les aires d'introductions potentielles. Une méthode alternative, incluant la calibration du modèle à partir des deux aires où l'espèce est présente, est proposée pour améliorer les prédictions de l'invasion en Amérique du nord. Je présente finalement une revue de la littérature sur la dynamique de la niche écologique dans le temps et l'espace. Elle synthétise les récents développements théoriques concernant le conservatisme de la niche et propose des solutions pour améliorer la pertinence des prédictions d'impact des changements climatiques et des invasions biologiques. SUMMARY Evidences are accumulating that biodiversity is facing the effects of global change. The most influential drivers of change in ecosystems are land-use change, alien species invasions and climate change impacts. Accurate projections of species' responses to these changes are needed to propose mitigation measures to slow down the on-going erosion of biodiversity. Niche-based models (NBM) currently represent one of the only tools for such projections. However, their application in the context of global changes relies on restrictive assumptions, calling for cautious interpretations. In this thesis I aim to assess the effectiveness and shortcomings of niche-based models for the study of global change impacts on biodiversity through the investigation of specific, unsolved limitations and suggestion of new approaches. Two studies investigating threats to rare and endangered plants are presented. I review the ecogeographic characteristic of 118 endangered plants with high conservation priority in Switzerland. The prevalence of rarity types among plant species is analyzed in relation to IUCN extinction risks. The review underlines the importance of regional vs. global conservation and shows that a global assessment of rarity might be misleading for some species because it can fail to account for different degrees of rarity at a variety of spatial scales. The second study tests a modeling framework including iterative steps of modeling and field surveys to improve the sampling of rare species. The approach is illustrated with a rare alpine plant, Eryngium alpinum and shows promise for complementing conservation practices and reducing sampling costs. Two studies illustrate the impacts of climate change on African taxa. The first one assesses the sensitivity of 277 mammals at African scale to climate change by 2050 in terms of species richness and turnover. It shows that a substantial number of species could be critically endangered in the future. National parks situated in xeric ecosystems are not expected to meet their mandate of protecting current species diversity in the future. The second study model the distribution in 2050 of 975 endemic plant species in southern Africa. The study proposes the inclusion of new methodological insights improving the accuracy and ecological realism of predictions of global changes studies. It also investigates the possibility to estimate a priori the sensitivity of a species to climate change from the geographical distribution and ecological proprieties of the species. Three studies illustrate the application of NBM in the study of biological invasions. The first one investigates the Northwards expansion of Lactuca serriola L. in Europe during the last 250 years in relation with climate changes. In the last two decades, the species could not track climate change due to non climatic influences. A second study analyses the potential invasion extent of spotted knapweed, a European weed first introduced into North America in the 1890s. The study provides one of the first empirical evidence that an invasive species can occupy climatically distinct niche spaces following its introduction into a new area. Models fail to predict the current full extent of the invasion, but correctly predict areas of introduction. An alternative approach, involving the calibration of models with pooled data from both ranges, is proposed to improve predictions of the extent of invasion on models based solely on the native range. I finally present a review on the dynamic nature of ecological niches in space and time. It synthesizes the recent theoretical developments to the niche conservatism issues and proposes solutions to improve confidence in NBM predictions of the impacts of climate change and species invasions on species distributions.