Climate change, anthropogenic disturbance and the northward range expansion of Lactuca serriola (Asteraceae)

The distribution range of Lactuca serriola, a species native to the summer-dry mediterranean climate, has expanded northwards during the last 250 years. This paper assesses the influence of climate on the range expansion of this species and highlights the importance of anthropogenic disturbance to its spread. Location Central and Northern Europe. Methods Data on the geographic distribution of L. serriola were assembled through a literature search as well as through floristic and herbarium surveys. Maps of the spread of L. serriola in Central and Northern Europe were prepared based on herbarium data. The spread was assessed more precisely in Germany, Austria and Great Britain by pooling herbarium and literature data. We modelled the bioclimatic niche of the species using occurrence and climatic data covering the last century to generate projections of suitable habitats under the climatic conditions of five time periods. We tested whether the observed distribution of L. serriola could be explained for each time period, assuming that the climatic niche of the species was conserved across time. Results The species has spread northwards since the beginning of the 19th century. We show that climate warming in Europe increased the number of sites suitable for the species at northern latitudes. Until the late 1970s, the distribution of the species corresponded to the climatically suitable sites available. For the last two decades, however, we could not show any significant relationship between the increase in suitable sites and the distributional range change of L. serriola. However, we highlight potential areas the species could spread to in the future (Great Britain, southern Scandinavia and the Swedish coast). It is predominantly non-climatic influences of global change that have contributed to its rapid spread. Main conclusions The observation that colonizing species are not filling their climatically suitable range might imply that, potentially, other ruderal species could expand far beyond their current range. Our work highlights the importance of historical floristic and herbarium data for understanding the expansion of a species. Such historical distributional data can provide valuable information for those planning the management of contemporary environmental problems, such as species responses to environmental change.

Genetic and karyotypic structure in the shrews of the Sorex araneus group: are they independent?

The species of the common shrew (Sorex araneus) group are morphologically very similar but exhibit high levels of karyotypic variation. Here we used genetic variation at 10 microsatellite markers in a data set of 212 individuals mostly sampled in the western Alps and composed of five karyotypic taxa (Sorex coronatus, Sorex antinorii and the S. araneus chromosome races Cordon, Bretolet and Vaud) to investigate the concordance between genetic and karyotypic structure. Bayesian analysis confirmed the taxonomic status of the three sampled species since individuals consistently grouped according to their taxonomical status. However, introgression can still be detected between S. antinorii and the race Cordon of S. araneus. This observation is consistent with the expected low karyotypic complexity of hybrids between these two taxa. Geographically based cryptic substructure was discovered within S. antinorii, a pattern consistent with the different postglaciation recolonization routes of this species. Additionally, we detected two genetic groups within S. araneus notwithstanding the presence of three chromosome races. This pattern can be explained by the probable hybrid status of the Bretolet race but also suggests a relatively low impact of chromosomal differences on genetic structure compared to historical factors. Finally, we propose that the current data set (available at http://www.unil.ch/dee/page7010_en.html#1) could be used as a reference by those wanting to identify Sorex individuals sampled in the western Alps.