Sedimentology, geochemistry and mineralogy of the Paleocene-Eocene thermal maximum (PETM) : sediment records from Egypt, India and Spain

A gradual increase in Earth's surface temperatures marking the transition from the late Paleocene to early Eocene (55.8±0.2Ma), represents an extraordinary warming event known as Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM). Both marine and continental sedimentary records during this period reveal evidences for the massive injection of isotopically light carbon. The carbon dioxide injection from multiple potential sources may have triggered the global warming. The importance of the PETM studies is due to the fact that the PETM bears some striking resemblances to the human-caused climate change unfolding today. Most notably, the culprit behind it was a massive injection of heat-trapping greenhouse gases into the atmosphere and oceans, comparable in volume to what our persistent burning of fossil fuels could deliver in coming centuries. The exact knowledge of what went on during the PETM could help us to foresee the future climate change. The response of the oceanic and continental environments to the PETM is different. Many factors might control the response of the environments to the PETM such as paleogeography, paleotopography, paleoenvironment, and paleodepth. To better understand the mechanisms triggering PETM events, two different environments were studied: 1) shallow marine to inner shelf environment (Wadi Nukhul, Sinai; and the Dababiya GSSP, Luxor, Egypt), and 2) terrestrial environments (northwestern India lignite mines) representing wetland, and fluvial environments (Esplugafreda, Spain) both highlighting the climatic changes observed in continental conditions. In the marine realm, the PETM is characterized by negative ö13Ccar and ô13Corg excursions and shifts in Ô15N to ~0%o values above the P/E boundary and persisting along the interval suggesting a bloom and high production of atmospheric N2-fixers. Decrease in carbonate contents could be due to dissolution and/or dilution by increasing detrital input. High Ti, K and Zr and decreased Si contents at the P/E boundary indicate high weathering index (CIA), which coincides with significant kaolinite input and suggests intense chemical weathering under humid conditions at the beginning of the PETM. Two anoxic intervals are observed along the PETM. The lower one may be linked to methane released from the continental shelf with no change in the redox proxies, where the upper anoxic to euxinic conditions are revealed by increasing U, Mo, V, Fe and the presence of small size pyrite framboids (2-5fim). Productivity sensitive elements (Cu, Ni, and Cd) show their maximum concentrated within the upper anoxic interval suggesting high productivity in surface water. The obtained data highlight that intense weathering and subsequent nutrient inputs are crucial parameters in the chain of the PETM events, triggering productivity during the recovery phase. In the terrestrial environments, the establishment of wetland conditions and consequence continental climatic shift towards more humid conditions led to migration of modern mammals northward following the extension of the tropical belts. Relative ages of this mammal event based on bio-chemo- and paleomagnetic stratigraphy support a migration path originating from Asia into Europe and North America, followed by later migration from Asia into India and suggests a barrier to migration that is likely linked to the timing of the India-Asia collision. In contrast, at Esplugafereda, northeastern Spain, the terrestrial environment reacted differently. Two significant S13C shifts with the lower one linked to the PETM and the upper corresponding to the Early Eocene Thermal Maximum (ETM2); 180/160 paleothermometry performed on two different soil carbonate nodule reveal a temperature increase of around 8°C during the PETM. The prominent increase in kaolinite content within the PETM is linked to increased runoff and/or weathering of adjacent and coeval soils. These results demonstrate that the PETM coincides globally with extreme climatic fluctuations and that terrestrial environments are very likely to record such climatic changes. - La transition Paléocène-Eocène (55,8±0,2 Ma) est marquée par un réchauffement extraordinaire communément appelé « Paleocene-Eocene Thermal Maximum » (PETM). Les données géochimiques caractérisant les sédiments marins et continentaux de cette période indiquent que ce réchauffement a été déclenché par une augmentation massive de CO2 lié à la déstabilisation des hydrates de méthane stockés le long des marges océaniques. L'étude des événements PETM constitue donc un bon analogue avec le réchauffement actuel. Le volume de CO2 émis durant le PETM est comparable avec le CO2 lié à l'activité actuelle humaine. La compréhension des causes du réchauffement du PETM peut être cruciale pour prévoir et évaluer les conséquences du réchauffement anthropogénique, en particulier les répercussions d'un tel réchauffement sur les domaines continentaux et océaniques. De nombreux facteurs entrent en ligne de compte dans le cas du PETM, tels que la paléogéographie, la paléotopographie et les paléoenvironnement. Pour mieux comprendre les réponses environnementales aux événements du PETM, 2 types d'environnements ont été choisis : (1) le domaine marin ouvert mais relativement peu profond (Wadi Nukhul. Sinai, Dababiya, Luxor, Egypte), (2) le milieu continental marécageux humide (mines de lignite, Inde) et fluviatile, semi-aride (Esplugafreda, Pyrénées espagnoles). Dans le domaine marin, le PETM est caractérisé par des excursions négatives du ô13Ccar et ô13Corg et un shift persistant des valeurs de 815N à ~ 0 %o indiquant une forte activité des organismes (bactéries) fixant l'azote. La diminution des carbonates observée durant le PETM peut-être due à des phénomènes de dissolution ou une augmentation des apports terrigènes. Des taux élevés en Ti, K et Zr et une diminution des montants de Si, reflétés par des valeurs des indices d'altération (CIA) qui coïncident avec une augmentation significative des apports de kaolinite impliquent une altération chimique accrue, du fait de conditions plus humides au début du PETM. Deux événements anoxiques globaux ont été mis en évidence durant le PETM. Le premier, situé dans la partie inférieur du PETM, serait lié à la libération des hydrates de méthane stockés le long des talus continentaux et ne correspond pas à des variations significatives des éléments sensibles aux changements de conditions redox. Le second est caractérisé par une augmentation des éléments U, Mo, V et Fe et la présence de petit framboids de pyrite dont la taille varie entre 2 et 5pm. Le second épisode anoxique est caractérisé par une forte augmentation des éléments sensibles aux changements de la productivité (Cu, Ni et Co), indiquant une augmentation de la productivité dans les eaux de surface. Les données obtenues mettent en évidence le rôle crucial joué par l'altération et les apports en nutriments qui en découlent. Ces paramètres sont cruciaux pour la succession des événements qui ont conduit au PETM, et plus particulièrement l'augmentation de la productivité dans la phase de récupération. Durant le PETM, le milieu continental est caractérisé par l'établissement de conditions humides qui ont facilité voir provoqué la migration des mammifères modernes qui ont suivi le déplacement de ces ceintures climatiques. L'âge de cette migration est basé sur des arguments chimiostratigraphiques (isotopes stables), biostratigraphiques et paléomagnétiques. Les données bibliographiques ainsi que celles que nous avons récoltées en Inde, montrent que les mammifères modernes ont d'abord migré depuis l'Asie vers l'Europe, puis dans le continent Nord américain. Ces derniers ne sont arrivés en Inde que plus tardivement, suggérant que le temps de leur migration est lié à la collision Inde-Asie. Dans le Nord-Est de l'Espagne (Esplugafreda), la réponse du milieu continental aux événements PETM est assez différente. Comme en Inde, deux excursions signicatives en ô13C ont été observées. La première correspond au PETM et la seconde est corrélée avec l'optimum thermique de l'Eocène précoce (ETM2). Les isotopes stables de l'oxygène mesurés 2 différents types de nodules calcaires provenant de paléosols suggère une augmentation de 10°C pendant le PETM. Une augmentation simultanée des taux de kaolinite indique une intensification de l'altération chimique et/ou de l'érosion de sols adjacents. Ces résultats démontrent que le PETM coïncide globalement avec des variations climatiques extrêmes qui sont très aisément reconnaissables dans les dépôts continentaux.

Sedimentary record of the northward flight of India and its collision with Eurasia (Ladakh Himalaya, India)

Stratigraphic and petrographic analysis of the Cretaceous to Eocene Tibetan sedimentary succession has allowed us to reinterpret in detail the sequence of events which led to closure of Neotethys and continental collision in the NW Himalaya. During the Early Cretaceous, the Indian passive margin recorded basaltic magmatic activity. Albian volcanic arenites, probably related to a major extensional tectonic event, are unconformably overlain by an Upper Cretaceous to Paleocene carbonate sequence, with a major quartzarenite episode triggered by the global eustatic sea-level fall at the Cretaceous/Tertiary boundary. At the same time, Neotethyan oceanic crust was being subducted beneath Asia, as testified by calc-alkalic volcanism and forearc basin sedimentation in the Transhimalayan belt. Onset of collision and obduction of the Asian accretionary wedge onto the Indian continental rise was recorded by shoaling of the outer shelf at the Paleocene/Eocene boundary, related to flexural uplift of the passive margin. A few My later, foreland basin volcanic arenites derived from the uplifted Asian subduction complex onlapped onto the Indian continental terrace. All along the Himalaya, marine facies were rapidly replaced by continental redbeds in collisional basins on both sides of the ophiolitic suture. Next, foreland basin sedimentation was interrupted by fold-thrust deformation and final ophiolite emplacement. The observed sequence of events compares favourably with theoretical models of rifted margin to overthrust belt transition and shows that initial phases of continental collision and obduction were completed within 10 to 15 My, with formation of a proto-Himalayan chain by the end of the middle Eocene.

What Price Salvation? The Exchange of Salvation goods between India and the West

Does Weber's notion of salvation goods, along with the connected one of the religious market, apply to the modern history of yoga? The case study chosen here (the yoga of Pattabhi Jois) clearly shows that these notions highlight many aspects of the expansion of yoga into a global market product. However, the notion of salvation goods resists the new hermeneutical situation of encounter and has to be adapted to the present situation of religious "patchwork". The notion of religious market lacks depth to describe the various understandings and appropriations of yoga in precise historical situations. Other aspects of the current global status of yoga may be highlighted by applying the concept of pilgrimage. La notion de bien de salut que nous lègue Max Weber et la notion de marché religieux qui en découle peuvent-elles s'appliquer à l'histoire moderne du yoga? L'étude de cas que nous consacrons au yoga de Pattabhi Jois montre que ces notions éclairent bien certains aspects de l'expansion du yoga en tant que produit d'un marché globalisé. Cependant la notion de bien de salut résiste à une réflexion de type herméneutique sur les processus de rencontres et doit être adaptée à la situation contemporaine, ou` les religions se présentent comme des ensembles composites. La notion de marché religieux ne permet pas d'expliquer les diverses compréhensions et appropriations du yoga dans des situations historiques précises. D'autres aspects de la situation du yoga sont mieux explicités si on prend le concept de pèlerinage comme point de référence.

Geological transect across the Northwestern Himalaya in eastern Ladakh and Lahul (A model for the continental collision of India and Asia)

The detailed geological mapping and structural study of a complete transect across the northwestern Himalaya allow to describe the tectonic evolution of the north Indian continental margin during the Tethys ocean opening and the Himalayan Orogeny. The Late Paleozoic Tethys rifting is associated with several tectonomagmatic events. In Upper Lahul and SE Zanskar, this extensional phase is recorded by Lower Carboniferous synsedimentary transtensional faults, a Lower Permian stratigraphic unconformity, a Lower Permian granitic intrusion and middle Permian basaltic extrusions (Panjal Traps). In eastern Ladakh, a Permian listric normal fault is also related to this phase. The scarcity of synsedimentary faults and the gradual increase of the Permian syn-rift sediment thickness towards the NE suggest a flexural type margin. The collision of India and Asia is characterized by a succession of contrasting orogenic phases. South of the Suture Zone, the initiation of the SW vergent Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe corresponds to an early phase of continental underthrusting. To the S, in Lahul, an opposite underthrusting within the Indian plate is recorded by the NE vergent Tandi Syncline. This structure is associated with the newly defined Shikar Beh Nappe, now partly eroded, which is responsible for the high grade (amphibolite facies) regional metamorphism of South Lahul. The main thrusting of the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe followed the formation of the Shikar Beh Nappe. The Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe developed by ductile shear of the upper part of the subducted Indian continental margin and is responsible for the progressive regional metamorphism of SE Zanskar, reaching amphibolite facies below the frontal part of the nappe, near Sarchu. In Upper Lahul, the frontal parts of the Nyimaling-Tsarap and Shikar Beh nappes are separated by a zone of low grade metamorphic rocks (pumpellyite-actinolite facies to lower greenschist facies). At high structural level, the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe is characterized by imbricate structures, which grade into a large ductile shear zone with depth. The related crustal shortening is about 87 km. The root zone and the frontal part of this nappe have been subsequently affected by two zones of dextral transpression and underthrusting: the Nyimaling Shear Zone and the Sarchu Shear Zone. These shear zones are interpreted as consequences of the counterclockwise rotation of the continental underthrusting direction of India relative to Asia, which occurred some 45 and 36 Ma ago, according to plate tectonic models. Later, a phase of NE vergent `'backfolding'' developed on these two zones of dextral transpression, creating isoclinal folds in SE Zanskar and more open folds in the Nyimaling Dome and in the Indus Molasse sediments. During a late stage of the Himalayan Orogeny, the frontal part of the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe underwent an extension of about 15 km. This phase is represented by two types of structures, responsible for the tectonic unroofing of the amphibolite facies rocks of the Sarchu area: the Sarchu high angle Normal Fault, cutting a first set of low angle normal faults, which have been created by reactivation of older thrust planes related to the Nyimaling-Tsarap Nappe.

Translating from India and the Moving Space of Translation (Illustrated by the Works of Ajñeya)

The inadequacies and obsolescence of Eurocentric theories based on a binaryand static worldview have become a staple topic of postcolonial studies, and tosome extent also of translation studies. Nonetheless, the literary texts that arecalled upon in order to show the dynamism and hybridity of (post)modern worksbelong for the most part to the languages of the former colonial powers, especiallyEnglish, and remain inserted in a system that construes literatures interms of opposition. As a consequence, there is outside India a doubly misleadingunderstanding of Indian literatures other than those written in English:firstly, that translations of works in Hindi and in the Indian bhāṣā seem to belacking, if not inexistent, and secondly, that these "minor" literatures - as theyare regularly termed - are still often viewed as being highly dependent on theidea of "tradition," in opposition to the "postmodern" hybridity of the literatureswritten in the "dominant" languages, such as English or French. Againstthese views and supported by the analysis of Ajñeya's works in Hindi togetherwith their English translations, this paper aims to show: 1) that translationsfrom Hindi, which are not in fact non-existent, are mainly carried out in India,and 2) that Ajñeya's works, while representing a significant instance of the effectivehybridity present in Indian literatures, help to illustrate the moving spaceof translation. This demonstration effectively invalidates the above-mentionedoppositional standpoint.

Evolutionary and dispersal history of Eurasian house mice Mus musculus clarified by more extensive geographic sampling of mitochondrial DNA.

We examined the sequence variation of mitochondrial DNA control region and cytochrome b gene of the house mouse (Mus musculus sensu lato) drawn from ca. 200 localities, with 286 new samples drawn primarily from previously unsampled portions of their Eurasian distribution and with the objective of further clarifying evolutionary episodes of this species before and after the onset of human-mediated long-distance dispersals. Phylogenetic analysis of the expanded data detected five equally distinct clades, with geographic ranges of northern Eurasia (musculus, MUS), India and Southeast Asia (castaneus, CAS), Nepal (unspecified, NEP), western Europe (domesticus, DOM) and Yemen (gentilulus). Our results confirm previous suggestions of Southwestern Asia as the likely place of origin of M. musculus and the region of Iran, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and northern India, specifically as the ancestral homeland of CAS. The divergence of the subspecies lineages and of internal sublineage differentiation within CAS were estimated to be 0.37-0.47 and 0.14-0.23 million years ago (mya), respectively, assuming a split of M. musculus and Mus spretus at 1.7 mya. Of the four CAS sublineages detected, only one extends to eastern parts of India, Southeast Asia, Indonesia, Philippines, South China, Northeast China, Primorye, Sakhalin and Japan, implying a dramatic range expansion of CAS out of its homeland during an evolutionary short time, perhaps associated with the spread of agricultural practices. Multiple and non-coincident eastward dispersal events of MUS sublineages to distant geographic areas, such as northern China, Russia and Korea, are inferred, with the possibility of several different routes.

Structural and metamorphic evolution of the northern Himachal Himalaya, NW India - (Spiti-eastern Lahul-Parvati valley traverse)

The Himalayan orogen is the result of the collision between the Indian and Asian continents that began 55-50 Ma ago, causing intracontinental thrusting and nappe formation. Detailed mapping as well as structural and microfabric analyses on a traverse from the Tethyan Himalaya southwestward through the High Himalayan Crystalline and the Main Central Thrust zone (MCT zone) to the Lesser Himalayan Sequence in the Spiti-eastern Lahul-Parvati valley area reveal eight main phases of deformation, a series of late stage phases and five stages of metamorphic crystallization. This sequence of events is integrated into a reconstruction of the tectonometamorphic evolution of the Himalayan orogen in northern Himachal Pradesh. The oldest phase D-1 is preserved as relies in the High Himalayan Crystalline. Its deformational conditions are poorly known, but the metamorphic evolution is well documented by a prograde metamorphism reaching peak conditions within the upper amphibolite facies. This indicates that D-1 was an important tectonometamorphic event including considerable crustal thickening. The structural, metamorphic and sedimentary record suggest that D-1 most probably represents an early stage of continental collision. The first event clearly attributed to the collision between India and Asia is documented by two converging nappe systems, the NE-verging Shikar Beh Nappe and the SW-verging north Himalayan nappes. The D-2 Shikar Beh Nappe is characterized by isoclinal folding and top-to-the NE shearing, representing the main deformation in the High Himalayan Crystalline. D-2 also caused the main metamorphism in the High Himalayan Crystalline that was of a Barrovian-type, reaching upper amphibolite facies peak conditions. The Shikar Beh Nappe is interpreted to have formed within the Indian crust SW of the subduction zone. Simultaneously with NE-directed nappe formation, incipient subduction of India below Asia caused stacking of the SW-verging north Himalayan Nappes, that were thrust from the northern edge of the subducted continent toward the front of the Shikar Beh Nappe. As a result, the SW-verging folds of the D-3 Main Fold Zone formed in the Tethyan Himalaya below the front of the north Himalayan nappes. D-3 represents the main deformation in the Tethyan Himalaya, associated with a greenschist facies metamorphism. Folding within the Main Fold Zone subsequently propagated toward SW into the High Himalayan Crystalline, where it overprinted the preexisting D-2 structures. After subduction at the base of the north Himalayan nappes, the subduction zone stepped to the base of the High Himalayan Crystalline, where D-3 folds were crosscut by SW-directed D-4 thrusting. During D-4, the Crystalline Nappe, comprising the Main Fold Zone and relies of the Shikar Beh Nappe was thrust toward SW over the Lesser Himalayan Sequence along the 4 to 5 kms thick Main Central Thrust zone. Thrusting was related to a retrograde greenschist facies overprint at the base of the Crystalline Nappe and to pro-grade greenschist facies conditions in the Lesser Himalayan Sequence. Simultaneously with thrusting at the base of the Crystalline Nappe, higher crustal levels were affected by NE-directed D-5 normal extensional shearing and by dextral strike-slip motion, indicating that the high-grade metamorphic Crystalline Nappe was extruded between the low-grade metamorphic Lesser Himalayan Sequence at the base and the north Himalayan nappes at the top. The upper boundary of the Crystalline Nappe is not clearly delimited and passes gradually into the low-grade rocks at the front of the north Himalayan nappes. Extrusion of the Crystalline Nappe was followed by the phase D-6, characterized by large-scale, upright to steeply inclined, NE-verging folds and by another series of normal and extensional structures D-7+D-8 that may be related to ongoing extrusion of the Crystalline Nappe. The late stage evolution is represented by the phases D-A and D-B that indicate shortening parallel to the axis of the mountain chain and by D-C that is interpreted to account for the formation of large-scale domes with NNW-SSE-trending axes, an example of which is exposed in the Larji-Kullu-Rampur tectonic window.

Late Early Triassic climate change: Insights from carbonate carbon isotopes, sedimentary evolution and ammonoid paleobiogeography

The late Early Triassic sedimentary-facies evolution and carbonate carbon-isotope marine record (delta(13)C(carb)) of ammonoid-rich, outer platform settings show striking similarities between the South ChinaBlock (SCB) and the widely distant Northern Indian Margin (NIM). The studied sections are located within the Triassic Tethys Himalayan belt (Losar section, Himachal Pradesh, India) and the Nanpanjiang Basin in the South China Block (Jinya section, Guangxi Province), respectively. Carbon isotopes from the studied sections confirm the previously observed carbon cycle perturbations at a time of major paleoceanographic changes in the wake of the end-Permian biotic crisis. This study documents the coincidence between a sharp increase in the carbon isotope composition and the worldwide ammonoid evolutionary turnover (extinction followed by a radiation) occurring around the Smithian-Spathian boundary. Based on recent modeling studies on ammonoid paleobiogeography and taxonomic diversity, we demonstrate that the late Early Triassic (Smithian and Spathian) was a time of a major climate change. More precisely, the end Smithian climate can be characterized by a warm and equable climate underlined by a flat, pole-to-equator, sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, while the steep Spathian SST gradient suggests latitudinally differentiated climatic conditions. Moreover, sedimentary evidence suggests a transition from a humid and hot climate during the Smithian to a dryer climate from the Spathian onwards. By analogy with comparable carbon isotope perturbations in the Late Devonian, Jurassic and Cretaceous we propose that high atmospheric CO(2) levels could have been responsible for the observed carbon cycle disturbance at the Smithian-Spathian boundary. We suggest that the end Smithian ammonoid extinction has been essentially caused by a warm and equable climate related to an increased CO(2) flux possibly originating from a short eruptive event of the Siberian igneous province. This increase in atmospheric CO(2) concentrations could have additionally reduced the marine calcium carbonate oversaturation and weakened the calcification potential of marine organisms, including ammonoids, in late Smithian oceans. (c) 2006 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Looking for orders of magnitude : five essays in trade and the environment and economic geography

General Summary Although the chapters of this thesis address a variety of issues, the principal aim is common: test economic ideas in an international economic context. The intention has been to supply empirical findings using the largest suitable data sets and making use of the most appropriate empirical techniques. This thesis can roughly be divided into two parts: the first one, corresponding to the first two chapters, investigates the link between trade and the environment, the second one, the last three chapters, is related to economic geography issues. Environmental problems are omnipresent in the daily press nowadays and one of the arguments put forward is that globalisation causes severe environmental problems through the reallocation of investments and production to countries with less stringent environmental regulations. A measure of the amplitude of this undesirable effect is provided in the first part. The third and the fourth chapters explore the productivity effects of agglomeration. The computed spillover effects between different sectors indicate how cluster-formation might be productivity enhancing. The last chapter is not about how to better understand the world but how to measure it and it was just a great pleasure to work on it. "The Economist" writes every week about the impressive population and economic growth observed in China and India, and everybody agrees that the world's center of gravity has shifted. But by how much and how fast did it shift? An answer is given in the last part, which proposes a global measure for the location of world production and allows to visualize our results in Google Earth. A short summary of each of the five chapters is provided below. The first chapter, entitled "Unraveling the World-Wide Pollution-Haven Effect" investigates the relative strength of the pollution haven effect (PH, comparative advantage in dirty products due to differences in environmental regulation) and the factor endowment effect (FE, comparative advantage in dirty, capital intensive products due to differences in endowments). We compute the pollution content of imports using the IPPS coefficients (for three pollutants, namely biological oxygen demand, sulphur dioxide and toxic pollution intensity for all manufacturing sectors) provided by the World Bank and use a gravity-type framework to isolate the two above mentioned effects. Our study covers 48 countries that can be classified into 29 Southern and 19 Northern countries and uses the lead content of gasoline as proxy for environmental stringency. For North-South trade we find significant PH and FE effects going in the expected, opposite directions and being of similar magnitude. However, when looking at world trade, the effects become very small because of the high North-North trade share, where we have no a priori expectations about the signs of these effects. Therefore popular fears about the trade effects of differences in environmental regulations might by exaggerated. The second chapter is entitled "Is trade bad for the Environment? Decomposing worldwide SO2 emissions, 1990-2000". First we construct a novel and large database containing reasonable estimates of SO2 emission intensities per unit labor that vary across countries, periods and manufacturing sectors. Then we use these original data (covering 31 developed and 31 developing countries) to decompose the worldwide SO2 emissions into the three well known dynamic effects (scale, technique and composition effect). We find that the positive scale (+9,5%) and the negative technique (-12.5%) effect are the main driving forces of emission changes. Composition effects between countries and sectors are smaller, both negative and of similar magnitude (-3.5% each). Given that trade matters via the composition effects this means that trade reduces total emissions. We next construct, in a first experiment, a hypothetical world where no trade happens, i.e. each country produces its imports at home and does no longer produce its exports. The difference between the actual and this no-trade world allows us (under the omission of price effects) to compute a static first-order trade effect. The latter now increases total world emissions because it allows, on average, dirty countries to specialize in dirty products. However, this effect is smaller (3.5%) in 2000 than in 1990 (10%), in line with the negative dynamic composition effect identified in the previous exercise. We then propose a second experiment, comparing effective emissions with the maximum or minimum possible level of SO2 emissions. These hypothetical levels of emissions are obtained by reallocating labour accordingly across sectors within each country (under the country-employment and the world industry-production constraints). Using linear programming techniques, we show that emissions are reduced by 90% with respect to the worst case, but that they could still be reduced further by another 80% if emissions were to be minimized. The findings from this chapter go together with those from chapter one in the sense that trade-induced composition effect do not seem to be the main source of pollution, at least in the recent past. Going now to the economic geography part of this thesis, the third chapter, entitled "A Dynamic Model with Sectoral Agglomeration Effects" consists of a short note that derives the theoretical model estimated in the fourth chapter. The derivation is directly based on the multi-regional framework by Ciccone (2002) but extends it in order to include sectoral disaggregation and a temporal dimension. This allows us formally to write present productivity as a function of past productivity and other contemporaneous and past control variables. The fourth chapter entitled "Sectoral Agglomeration Effects in a Panel of European Regions" takes the final equation derived in chapter three to the data. We investigate the empirical link between density and labour productivity based on regional data (245 NUTS-2 regions over the period 1980-2003). Using dynamic panel techniques allows us to control for the possible endogeneity of density and for region specific effects. We find a positive long run elasticity of density with respect to labour productivity of about 13%. When using data at the sectoral level it seems that positive cross-sector and negative own-sector externalities are present in manufacturing while financial services display strong positive own-sector effects. The fifth and last chapter entitled "Is the World's Economic Center of Gravity Already in Asia?" computes the world economic, demographic and geographic center of gravity for 1975-2004 and compares them. Based on data for the largest cities in the world and using the physical concept of center of mass, we find that the world's economic center of gravity is still located in Europe, even though there is a clear shift towards Asia. To sum up, this thesis makes three main contributions. First, it provides new estimates of orders of magnitudes for the role of trade in the globalisation and environment debate. Second, it computes reliable and disaggregated elasticities for the effect of density on labour productivity in European regions. Third, it allows us, in a geometrically rigorous way, to track the path of the world's economic center of gravity.

Three essays in international finance

Executive Summary The first essay of this dissertation investigates whether greater exchange rate uncertainty (i.e., variation over time in the exchange rate) fosters or depresses the foreign investment of multinational firms. In addition to the direct capital financing it supplies, foreign investment can be a source of valuable technology and know-how, which can have substantial positive effects on a host country's economic growth. Thus, it is critically important for policy makers and central bankers, among others, to understand how multinationals base their investment decisions on the characteristics of foreign exchange markets. In this essay, I first develop a theoretical framework to improve our knowledge regarding how the aggregate level of foreign investment responds to exchange rate uncertainty when an economy consists of many firms, each of which is making decisions. The analysis predicts a U-shaped effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the total level of foreign investment of the economy. That is, the effect is negative for low levels of uncertainty and positive for higher levels of uncertainty. This pattern emerges because the relationship between exchange rate volatility and 'the probability of investment is negative for firms with low productivity at home (i.e., firms that find it profitable to invest abroad) and the relationship is positive for firms with high productivity at home (i.e., firms that prefer exporting their product). This finding stands in sharp contrast to predictions in the existing literature that consider a single firm's decision to invest in a unique project. The main contribution of this research is to show that the aggregation over many firms produces a U-shaped pattern between exchange rate uncertainty and the probability of investment. Using data from industrialized countries for the period of 1982-2002, this essay offers a comprehensive empirical analysis that provides evidence in support of the theoretical prediction. In the second essay, I aim to explain the time variation in sovereign credit risk, which captures the risk that a government may be unable to repay its debt. The importance of correctly evaluating such a risk is illustrated by the central role of sovereign debt in previous international lending crises. In addition, sovereign debt is the largest asset class in emerging markets. In this essay, I provide a pricing formula for the evaluation of sovereign credit risk in which the decision to default on sovereign debt is made by the government. The pricing formula explains the variation across time in daily credit spreads - a widely used measure of credit risk - to a degree not offered by existing theoretical and empirical models. I use information on a country's stock market to compute the prevailing sovereign credit spread in that country. The pricing formula explains a substantial fraction of the time variation in daily credit spread changes for Brazil, Mexico, Peru, and Russia for the 1998-2008 period, particularly during the recent subprime crisis. I also show that when a government incentive to default is allowed to depend on current economic conditions, one can best explain the level of credit spreads, especially during the recent period of financial distress. In the third essay, I show that the risk of sovereign default abroad can produce adverse consequences for the U.S. equity market through a decrease in returns and an increase in volatility. The risk of sovereign default, which is no longer limited to emerging economies, has recently become a major concern for financial markets. While sovereign debt plays an increasing role in today's financial environment, the effects of sovereign credit risk on the U.S. financial markets have been largely ignored in the literature. In this essay, I develop a theoretical framework that explores how the risk of sovereign default abroad helps explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns. The intuition for this effect is that negative economic shocks deteriorate the fiscal situation of foreign governments, thereby increasing the risk of a sovereign default that would trigger a local contraction in economic growth. The increased risk of an economic slowdown abroad amplifies the direct effect of these shocks on the level and the volatility of equity returns in the U.S. through two channels. The first channel involves a decrease in the future earnings of U.S. exporters resulting from unfavorable adjustments to the exchange rate. The second channel involves investors' incentives to rebalance their portfolios toward safer assets, which depresses U.S. equity prices. An empirical estimation of the model with monthly data for the 1994-2008 period provides evidence that the risk of sovereign default abroad generates a strong leverage effect during economic downturns, which helps to substantially explain the level and the volatility of U.S. equity returns.

Tethyan margins in space and time

Rifting processes, leading to sea-floor spreading, are characterized by a sequence of events: transtensive phase of extension with syn-rift volcanism; simple shear extension accompanied by lithospheric thinning and asthenospheric up-welling and thermal uplift of the rift shoulder and asymmetric volcanism. The simple shear model of extension leads to an asymmetric model of passive margin: a lower plate tilted block margin and an upper plate flexural, ramp-like margin- Both will be affected by thermal contraction and subsidence, starting soon after sea-floor spreading. Based on these actualistic models Tethyan margins are classified as one type or the other. Their evolution from the first transtensional phase of extension to the passive margin stage are analyzed. Four main rifting events are recognized in the Tethyan realm: an episode of lower Paleozoic events leading to the formation of the Paleotethys; a Late Paleozoic event leading to the opening of the Permotethys and East Mediterranean basin: an early Mesozoic event leading to the opening of the Pindos Neotethys and a Jurassic event related to the opening of the Alpine/Atlantic Neotethys. Type margins are given as example of each rifting event: -Northern Iran (Alborz) as a type area for the Late Ordovician to Silurian rifting of Paleotethys. -Northern India and Oman for the Late Carboniferous to early Permian rifting of Permotethys. -The East Mediterranean (Levant, Tunisia) as a Late Carboniferous rifting event. -The Neotethyan rifting phases are separated in two types: an eastern Pindos system found in Turkey and Greece is genetically linked to the Permotethys with a sea-floor spreading delayed until middle Triassic: a western Alpine system directly linked to the opening of the central Atlantic is characterized by a Late Triassic transtensive phase, an early to Middle Liassic break-away phase and. following sea-floor spreading, a thermal subsidence phase starting in Dogger. Problems related to the closure of the Paleozoic oceanic domains are reviewed. A Late Permian, early Triassic phase of `'docking'' between an European accretionary prism (Chios) and a Paleotethyan margin is supported by recent findings in the Mediterranean area. Back-arc rifting within the European active margin led to the formation of marginal seas during Permian and Triassic times and will contribute to the closure of the Paleozoic oceans.