Experimental Cournot oligopoly and inequity aversion

This paper explores the role of inequity aversion as an explanation for observed behavior in experimental Cournot oligopolies. We show that inequity aversion can change the nature of the strategic interaction: quantities are strategic substitutes for sufficiently asymmetric output levels but strategic complements otherwise. We find that inequity aversion can explain why: (i) some experiments result in higher than Cournot-Nash production levels while others result in lower, (ii) collusion often occurs with only two players whereas with three or more players market outcomes are very close to Cournot-Nash, and (iii) players often achieve equal profits in asymmetric Cournot oligopoly.

Three essays on the psychology of investment and financial markets

Préface My thesis consists of three essays where I consider equilibrium asset prices and investment strategies when the market is likely to experience crashes and possibly sharp windfalls. Although each part is written as an independent and self contained article, the papers share a common behavioral approach in representing investors preferences regarding to extremal returns. Investors utility is defined over their relative performance rather than over their final wealth position, a method first proposed by Markowitz (1952b) and by Kahneman and Tversky (1979), that I extend to incorporate preferences over extremal outcomes. With the failure of the traditional expected utility models in reproducing the observed stylized features of financial markets, the Prospect theory of Kahneman and Tversky (1979) offered the first significant alternative to the expected utility paradigm by considering that people focus on gains and losses rather than on final positions. Under this setting, Barberis, Huang, and Santos (2000) and McQueen and Vorkink (2004) were able to build a representative agent optimization model which solution reproduced some of the observed risk premium and excess volatility. The research in behavioral finance is relatively new and its potential still to explore. The three essays composing my thesis propose to use and extend this setting to study investors behavior and investment strategies in a market where crashes and sharp windfalls are likely to occur. In the first paper, the preferences of a representative agent, relative to time varying positive and negative extremal thresholds are modelled and estimated. A new utility function that conciliates between expected utility maximization and tail-related performance measures is proposed. The model estimation shows that the representative agent preferences reveals a significant level of crash aversion and lottery-pursuit. Assuming a single risky asset economy the proposed specification is able to reproduce some of the distributional features exhibited by financial return series. The second part proposes and illustrates a preference-based asset allocation model taking into account investors crash aversion. Using the skewed t distribution, optimal allocations are characterized as a resulting tradeoff between the distribution four moments. The specification highlights the preference for odd moments and the aversion for even moments. Qualitatively, optimal portfolios are analyzed in terms of firm characteristics and in a setting that reflects real-time asset allocation, a systematic over-performance is obtained compared to the aggregate stock market. Finally, in my third article, dynamic option-based investment strategies are derived and illustrated for investors presenting downside loss aversion. The problem is solved in closed form when the stock market exhibits stochastic volatility and jumps. The specification of downside loss averse utility functions allows corresponding terminal wealth profiles to be expressed as options on the stochastic discount factor contingent on the loss aversion level. Therefore dynamic strategies reduce to the replicating portfolio using exchange traded and well selected options, and the risky stock.

Activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex signals the accumulation of evidence in a probability learning task.

In an uncertain environment, probabilities are key to predicting future events and making adaptive choices. However, little is known about how humans learn such probabilities and where and how they are encoded in the brain, especially when they concern more than two outcomes. During functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI), young adults learned the probabilities of uncertain stimuli through repetitive sampling. Stimuli represented payoffs and participants had to predict their occurrence to maximize their earnings. Choices indicated loss and risk aversion but unbiased estimation of probabilities. BOLD response in medial prefrontal cortex and angular gyri increased linearly with the probability of the currently observed stimulus, untainted by its value. Connectivity analyses during rest and task revealed that these regions belonged to the default mode network. The activation of past outcomes in memory is evoked as a possible mechanism to explain the engagement of the default mode network in probability learning. A BOLD response relating to value was detected only at decision time, mainly in striatum. It is concluded that activity in inferior parietal and medial prefrontal cortex reflects the amount of evidence accumulated in favor of competing and uncertain outcomes.

Essays in higher moment asset pricing and liquidity risk

This thesis focuses on theoretical asset pricing models and their empirical applications. I aim to investigate the following noteworthy problems: i) if the relationship between asset prices and investors' propensities to gamble and to fear disaster is time varying, ii) if the conflicting evidence for the firm and market level skewness can be explained by downside risk, Hi) if costly learning drives liquidity risk. Moreover, empirical tests support the above assumptions and provide novel findings in asset pricing, investment decisions, and firms' funding liquidity. The first chapter considers a partial equilibrium model where investors have heterogeneous propensities to gamble and fear disaster. Skewness preference represents the desire to gamble, while kurtosis aversion represents fear of extreme returns. Using US data from 1988 to 2012, my model demonstrates that in bad times, risk aversion is higher, more people fear disaster, and fewer people gamble, in contrast to good times. This leads to a new empirical finding: gambling preference has a greater impact on asset prices during market downturns than during booms. The second chapter consists of two essays. The first essay introduces a foramula based on conditional CAPM for decomposing the market skewness. We find that the major market upward and downward movements can be well preadicted by the asymmetric comovement of betas, which is characterized by an indicator called "Systematic Downside Risk" (SDR). We find that SDR can efafectively forecast future stock market movements and we obtain out-of-sample R-squares (compared with a strategy using historical mean) of more than 2.27% with monthly data. The second essay reconciles a well-known empirical fact: aggregating positively skewed firm returns leads to negatively skewed market return. We reconcile this fact through firms' greater response to negative maraket news than positive market news. We also propose several market return predictors, such as downside idiosyncratic skewness. The third chapter studies the funding liquidity risk based on a general equialibrium model which features two agents: one entrepreneur and one external investor. Only the investor needs to acquire information to estimate the unobservable fundamentals driving the economic outputs. The novelty is that information acquisition is more costly in bad times than in good times, i.e. counter-cyclical information cost, as supported by previous empirical evidence. Later we show that liquidity risks are principally driven by costly learning. Résumé Cette thèse présente des modèles théoriques dévaluation des actifs et leurs applications empiriques. Mon objectif est d'étudier les problèmes suivants: la relation entre l'évaluation des actifs et les tendances des investisseurs à parier et à crainadre le désastre varie selon le temps ; les indications contraires pour l'entreprise et l'asymétrie des niveaux de marché peuvent être expliquées par les risques de perte en cas de baisse; l'apprentissage coûteux augmente le risque de liquidité. En outre, des tests empiriques confirment les suppositions ci-dessus et fournissent de nouvelles découvertes en ce qui concerne l'évaluation des actifs, les décisions relatives aux investissements et la liquidité de financement des entreprises. Le premier chapitre examine un modèle d'équilibre où les investisseurs ont des tendances hétérogènes à parier et à craindre le désastre. La préférence asymétrique représente le désir de parier, alors que le kurtosis d'aversion représente la crainte du désastre. En utilisant les données des Etats-Unis de 1988 à 2012, mon modèle démontre que dans les mauvaises périodes, l'aversion du risque est plus grande, plus de gens craignent le désastre et moins de gens parient, conatrairement aux bonnes périodes. Ceci mène à une nouvelle découverte empirique: la préférence relative au pari a un plus grand impact sur les évaluations des actifs durant les ralentissements de marché que durant les booms économiques. Exploitant uniquement cette relation générera un revenu excédentaire annuel de 7,74% qui n'est pas expliqué par les modèles factoriels populaires. Le second chapitre comprend deux essais. Le premier essai introduit une foramule base sur le CAPM conditionnel pour décomposer l'asymétrie du marché. Nous avons découvert que les mouvements de hausses et de baisses majeures du marché peuvent être prédits par les mouvements communs des bêtas. Un inadicateur appelé Systematic Downside Risk, SDR (risque de ralentissement systématique) est créé pour caractériser cette asymétrie dans les mouvements communs des bêtas. Nous avons découvert que le risque de ralentissement systématique peut prévoir les prochains mouvements des marchés boursiers de manière efficace, et nous obtenons des carrés R hors échantillon (comparés avec une stratégie utilisant des moyens historiques) de plus de 2,272% avec des données mensuelles. Un investisseur qui évalue le marché en utilisant le risque de ralentissement systématique aurait obtenu une forte hausse du ratio de 0,206. Le second essai fait cadrer un fait empirique bien connu dans l'asymétrie des niveaux de march et d'entreprise, le total des revenus des entreprises positiveament asymétriques conduit à un revenu de marché négativement asymétrique. Nous décomposons l'asymétrie des revenus du marché au niveau de l'entreprise et faisons cadrer ce fait par une plus grande réaction des entreprises aux nouvelles négatives du marché qu'aux nouvelles positives du marché. Cette décomposition révélé plusieurs variables de revenus de marché efficaces tels que l'asymétrie caractéristique pondérée par la volatilité ainsi que l'asymétrie caractéristique de ralentissement. Le troisième chapitre fournit une nouvelle base théorique pour les problèmes de liquidité qui varient selon le temps au sein d'un environnement de marché incomplet. Nous proposons un modèle d'équilibre général avec deux agents: un entrepreneur et un investisseur externe. Seul l'investisseur a besoin de connaitre le véritable état de l'entreprise, par conséquent, les informations de paiement coutent de l'argent. La nouveauté est que l'acquisition de l'information coute plus cher durant les mauvaises périodes que durant les bonnes périodes, comme cela a été confirmé par de précédentes expériences. Lorsque la récession comamence, l'apprentissage coûteux fait augmenter les primes de liquidité causant un problème d'évaporation de liquidité, comme cela a été aussi confirmé par de précédentes expériences.

Mise en oeuvre de protocoles spatiaux pour analyser la modulation de processus cognitifs en fonction de la dimension émotionnelle chez le rongeur

Résumé : Emotion et cognition sont deux termes généralement employés pour désigner des processus psychiques de nature opposée. C'est ainsi que les sciences cognitives se sont longtemps efforcées d'écarter la composante «chaude »des processus «froids »qu'elles visaient, si ce n'est pour montrer l'effet dévastateur de la première sur les seconds. Pourtant, les processus cognitifs (de collecte, maintien et utilisation d'information) et émotioAnels (d'activation subjective, physiologique et comportementale face à ce qui est attractif ou aversif) sont indissociables. Par l'approche neuro-éthologique, à l'interface entre le substrat biologique et les manifestations comportementales, nous nous sommes intéressés à une fonction cognitive essentielle, la fonction mnésique, classiquement exprimée chez le rongeur par l'orientation spatiale. Au niveau du substrat, McDonald et White (1993) ont montré la dissociation de trois systèmes de mémoire, avec les rôles de l'hippocampe, du néostriatum et de l'amygdale dans l'encodage des informations respectivement épisodiques, procédurales et émotionnelles. Nous nous sommes penchés sur l'interaction entre ces systèmes en fonction de la dimension émotionnelle par l'éclairage du comportement. L'état émotionnel de l'animal dépend de plusieurs facteurs, que nous avons tenté de contrôler indirectement en comparant leurs effets sur l'acquisition, dans diverses conditions, de la tâche de Morris (qui nécessite la localisation dans un bassin de la position d'une plate-forme submergée), ainsi que sur le style d'exploration de diverses arènes, ouvertes ou fermées, plus ou moins structurées par la présence de tunnels en plexiglas transparent. Nous avons d'abord exploré le rôle d'un composant du système adrénergique dans le rapport à la difficulté et au stress, à l'aide de souris knock-out pour le récepteur à la noradrénaline a-1 B dans un protocole avec 1 ou 4 points de départ dans un bassin partitionné. Ensuite, nous nous sommes penchés, chez le rat, sur les effets de renforcement intermittent dans différentes conditions expérimentales. Dans ces conditions, nous avons également tenté d'analyser en quoi la situation du but dans un paysage donné pouvait interférer avec les effets de certaines formes de stress. Finalement, nous avons interrogé les conséquences de perturbations passées, y compris le renforcement partiel, sur l'organisation des déplacements sur sol sec. Nos résultats montrent la nécessité, pour les souris cont~ô/es dont l'orientation repose sur l'hippocampe, de pouvoir varier les trajectoires, ce qui favoriserait la constitution d'une carte cognitive. Les souris a->B KO s'avèrent plus sensibles au stress et capables de bénéficier de la condition de route qui permet des réponses simples et automatisées, sous-tendues par l'activité du striatum. Chez les rats en bassin 100% renforcé, l'orientation apparaît basée sur l'hippocampe, relayée par le striatum pour le développement d'approches systématiques et rapides, avec réorientation efficace en nouvelle position par réactivation dépendant de l'hippocampe. A 50% de renforcement, on observe un effet du type de déroulement des sessions, transitoirement atténué par la motivation Lorsque les essais s'enchaînent sans pause intrasession, les latences diminuent régulièrement, ce qui suggère une prise en charge possible par des routines S-R dépendant du striatum. L'organisation des mouvements exploratoires apparaît dépendante du niveau d'insécurité, avec différents profils intermédiaires entre la différentiation maximale et la thigmotaxie, qui peuvent être mis en relation avec différents niveaux d'efficacité de l'hippocampe. Ainsi, notre travail encourage à la prise en compte de la dimension émotionnelle comme modulatrice du traitement d'information, tant en phase d'exploration de l'environnement que d'exploitation des connaissances spatiales. Abstract : Emotion and cognition are terms widely used to refer to opposite mental processes. Hence, cognitive science research has for a long time pushed "hot" components away from "cool" targeted processes, except for assessing devastating effects of the former upon the latter. However, cognitive processes (of information collection, preservation, and utilization) and emotional processes (of subjective, physiological, and behavioral activation roue to attraction or aversion) are inseparable. At the crossing between biological substrate and behavioral expression, we studied a chief cognitive function, memory, classically shown in animals through spatial orientation. At the substrate level, McDonald et White (1993) have shown a dissociation between three memory systems, with the hippocampus, neostriatum, and amygdala, encoding respectively episodic, habit, and emotional information. Through the behavior of laboratory rodents, we targeted the interaction between those systems and the emotional axis. The emotional state of an animal depends on different factors, that we tried to check in a roundabout way by the comparison of their effects on acquisition, in a variety of conditions, of the Morris task (in which the location of a hidden platform in a pool is required), as well as on the exploration profile in different apparatus, open-field and closed mazes, more or less organized by clear Plexiglas tunnels. We first tracked the role, under more or less difficult and stressful conditions, of an adrenergic component, with knock-out mice for the a-1 B receptor in a partitioned water maze with 1 or 4 start positions. With rats, we looked for the consequences of partial reinforcement in the water maze in different experimental conditions. In those conditions, we further analyzed how the situation of the goal in the landscape could interfere with the effect of a given stress. At last, we conducted experiments on solid ground, in an open-field and in radial mazes, in order to analyze the organization of spatial behavior following an aversive life event, such as partial reinforcement training in the water maze. Our results emphasize the reliance of normal mice to be able to vary approach trajectories. One of our leading hypotheses is that such strategies are hippocampus-dependent and are best developed for of a "cognitive map like" representation. Alpha-1 B KO mice appear more sensitive to stress and able to take advantage of the route condition allowing simple and automated responses, most likely striatum based. With rats in 100% reinforced water maze, the orientation strategy is predominantly hippocampus dependent (as illustrated by the impairment induced by lesions of this structure) and becomes progressively striatum dependent for the development of systematic and fast successful approaches. Training towards a new platform position requires a hippocampus based strategy. With a 50% reinforcement rate, we found a clear impairment related to intersession disruption, an effect transitorily minimized by motivation enhancement (cold water). When trials are given without intrasession interruption, latencies consistently diminish, suggesting a possibility for striatum dependent stimulus-response routine to occur. The organization of exploratory movements is shown to depend on the level of subjective security, with different intermediary profiles between maximum differentiation and thigmotaxy, which can be considered in parallel with different efficiency levels of the hippocampus dependent strategies. Thus, our work fosters the consideration of emotion as a cognitive treatment modulator, during spatial exploration as well as spatial learning. It leads to a model in which the predominance of hippocampus based exploration is challenged by training conditions of various nature.

Catastrophic medical expenditure risk

Medical expenditure risk can pose a major threat to living standards. We derive decomposable measures of catastrophic medical expenditure risk from reference-dependent utility with loss aversion. We propose a quantile regression based method of estimating risk exposure from cross-section data containing information on the means of financing health payments. We estimate medical expenditure risk in seven Asian countries and find it is highest in Laos and China, and is lowest in Malaysia. Exposure to risk is generally higher for households that have less recourse to self-insurance, lower incomes, wealth and education, and suffer from chronic illness.

Cardenolides in nectar may be more than a consequence of allocation to other plant parts: a phylogenetic study of Asclepias

The primary function of secondary plant metabolites is thought to be defence against herbivores. The frequent occurrence of these same noxious compounds in floral nectar, which functions primarily to attract pollinators, has been seen as paradoxical. Although these compounds may have an adaptive purpose in nectar, they may also occur as a nonadaptive consequence of chemical defence in other plant parts. If nectar chemistry reflects physiological constraints or passive leakage from other tissues, we expect that the identity and relative concentration of nectar cardenolides to be correlated with those of other plant parts; in contrast, discordant distributions of compounds in nectar and other tissues may suggest adaptive roles in nectar. We compared the concentrations and identities of cardenolides in the nectar, leaves and flowers of 12 species from a monophyletic clade of Asclepias. To measure putative toxicity of nectar cardenolides, we then examined the effects of a standard cardenolide (digoxin) on the behaviour of bumblebees, a common generalist pollinator of Asclepias. We found that the average cardenolide concentrations in nectar, leaves and flowers of the 12 Asclepias species were positively correlated as predicted by nonadaptive hypotheses. However, significant differences in the identities and concentrations of individual cardenolides between nectar and leaves suggest that the production or allocation of cardenolides may be independently regulated at each plant part. In addition, cardenolide concentrations in leaves and nectar exhibited no phylogenetic signal. Surprisingly, bumblebees did not demonstrate an aversion to digoxin-rich nectar, which may indicate that nectar cardenolides have little effect on pollination. Although the idea that discordant patterns of secondary metabolites across tissue types may signal adaptive functions is attractive, there is evidence to suggest constraint contributes to nectar secondary chemistry. Further work testing the ecological impacts of such patterns will be critical in determining the functional significance of nectar cardenolides

Le droit aux valeurs d'affection : étude sous l'angle de l'article 28 CC

INTRODUCTION : L'affection, et son contraire l'aversion, se manifestent à chaque instant de l'existence. Que ce soit au travers de notre relation avec les membres de notre entourage, les perceptions sonores, visuelles, olfactives qui nous saisissent à tout instant, il est constamment demandé à notre personnalité d'apprécier, de choisir, de rejeter en fonction de nos penchants, sans que ce choix soit nécessairement explicable ou justifiable par des arguments que chacun pourrait comprendre. L'affection, en tant qu'émanation de la personnalité, est-elle juridiquement protégée ? La question semble saugrenue mais il suffit de penser à la protection de la relation avec ses proches que la jurisprudence a bâtie sur la base de l'article 28 CC pour se rendre compte que l'affection est à l'évidence protégée en tant que composante de la personnalité. Mais où s'arrête-t-elle ? S'il est acquis qu'elle protège une relation entre deux êtres, peut-elle porter sur un objet ayant appartenu à un proche, par exemple une montre héritée d'un parent décédé ? Une réaction instinctive nous incite à répondre par l'affirmative; nous entendons cependant démontrer que cette protection trouve aussi des fondements juridiques, et qu'elle a des conséquences légales; ainsi en va-t-il si la montre est endommagée par un tiers : doit-on alors se limiter au remboursement de la valeur vénale, en compensant uniquement le dommage matériel, ou le titulaire du droit à l'affection peut-il réclamer, en sus de la valeur vénale, le dédommagement du tort moral ? Et si la montre est en main d'un tiers, comment aménager le rapport de deux personnes légitimées à invoquer un lien sur un objet, l'une en vertu de son droit de propriété, l'autre en vertu de son sentiment affectif ? La protection ne s'arrête certainement pas aux objets qui rappellent le souvenir d'un être proche. D'autres objets, tels un arbre planté à sa naissance, un objet qui matérialise un événement personnel important, sont aussi susceptibles d'être l'objet d'un lien affectif. Bien qu'ils n'aient pas, en raison de l'absence de lien préalable avec un être physique, de substrat duquel tirer la justification juridique de la protection, nous démontrerons que ce lien affectif est également protégé. Et, enfin, peut-on, à notre époque, parler d'affection sans évoquer les animaux ? Quelles sont les règles applicables au statut de l'animal depuis que le législateur a décidé qu'il n'est plus une chose ? Voilà une troisième catégorie de valeurs d'affection qui nous occupera et dont nous étudierons le régime particulier de protection depuis la récente modification du Code civil suisse. L'étude de la protection des valeurs d'affection a ceci de particulier qu'elle était au début du siècle souvent citée dans le catalogue des droits de la personnalité, notamment lorsque les auteurs commentaient ce nouvel article 28 CC que l'on disait si novateur. Cet ouvrage entend déterminer ce qu'il reste aujourd'hui de cette doctrine si prompte à voir dans l'article 28 CC ce qu'il n'est peut-être plus vraiment actuellement, c'est-à-dire un puissant vecteur du développement des conceptions juridiques et de l'évolution de la protection de la personnalité. L'on entend souvent que la tendance sociale est à l'individualisme, à la précarisation des rapports humains et à l'anonymisation de la société. Le renouveau du débat sur la protection des valeurs d'affection, notamment par la modification législative touchant le statut de l'animal, est la manifestation du besoin social de protéger les liens affectifs portant sur un objet, que ce soit une alliance, un arbre planté à sa naissance, ou un animal de compagnie. Après l'analyse des sources de la protection des valeurs d'affection, nous examinerons quelles peuvent être les conséquences légales de cette protection s'agissant de la réparation du tort moral, et au niveau de la résolution de conflits de droit qui peuvent surgir entre le titulaire du droit à la valeur d'affection et le tiers propriétaire. Il s'agira également de déterminer si la récente modification législative sur le statut de l'animal apporte des solutions nouvelles à ces questions.

The cells and peripheral representation of sodium taste in mice.

Salt taste in mammals can trigger two divergent behavioural responses. In general, concentrated saline solutions elicit robust behavioural aversion, whereas low concentrations of NaCl are typically attractive, particularly after sodium depletion. Notably, the attractive salt pathway is selectively responsive to sodium and inhibited by amiloride, whereas the aversive one functions as a non-selective detector for a wide range of salts. Because amiloride is a potent inhibitor of the epithelial sodium channel (ENaC), ENaC has been proposed to function as a component of the salt-taste-receptor system. Previously, we showed that four of the five basic taste qualities-sweet, sour, bitter and umami-are mediated by separate taste-receptor cells (TRCs) each tuned to a single taste modality, and wired to elicit stereotypical behavioural responses. Here we show that sodium sensing is also mediated by a dedicated population of TRCs. These taste cells express the epithelial sodium channel ENaC, and mediate behavioural attraction to NaCl. We genetically engineered mice lacking ENaCalpha in TRCs, and produced animals exhibiting a complete loss of salt attraction and sodium taste responses. Together, these studies substantiate independent cellular substrates for all five basic taste qualities, and validate the essential role of ENaC for sodium taste in mice.

Choosy moral punishers.

The punishment of social misconduct is a powerful mechanism for stabilizing high levels of cooperation among unrelated individuals. It is regularly assumed that humans have a universal disposition to punish social norm violators, which is sometimes labelled "universal structure of human morality" or "pure aversion to social betrayal". Here we present evidence that, contrary to this hypothesis, the propensity to punish a moral norm violator varies among participants with different career trajectories. In anonymous real-life conditions, future teachers punished a talented but immoral young violinist: they voted against her in an important music competition when they had been informed of her previous blatant misconduct toward fellow violin students. In contrast, future police officers and high school students did not punish. This variation among socio-professional categories indicates that the punishment of norm violators is not entirely explained by an aversion to social betrayal. We suggest that context specificity plays an important role in normative behaviour; people seem inclined to enforce social norms only in situations that are familiar, relevant for their social category, and possibly strategically advantageous.

Keeping the Vermin Out: Perceived Disease Threat and Ideological Orientations as Predictors of Exclusionary Immigration Attitudes

Integrating evolutionary and social representations theories, the current study examines the relationship between perceived disease threat and exclusionary immigration attitudes in the context of a potential avian influenza pandemic. This large-scale disease provides a realistic context for investigating the link between disease threat and immigration attitudes. The main aim of this cross-sectional study (N=412) was to explore mechanisms through which perceived chronic and contextual disease threats operate on immigration attitudes. Structural equation models show that the relationship between chronic disease threat (germ aversion) and exclusionary immigration attitudes (assimiliationist immigration criteria, health-based immigration criteria and desire to reduce the proportion of foreigners) was mediated by ideological and normative beliefs (social dominance orientation, belief in a dangerous world), but not by contextual disease threat (appraisal of avian influenza pandemic threat). Contextual disease threat only predicted support for health-based immigration criteria. The conditions under which real-life disease threats influence intergroup attitudes are scrutinized. Convergence and dissimilarity of evolutionary and social representational approaches in accounting for the link between disease threat and immigration attitudes are discussed.

Behavioural queueing : cellular automata and a laboratory experiment

Dans cette thèse, nous étudions les aspects comportementaux d'agents qui interagissent dans des systèmes de files d'attente à l'aide de modèles de simulation et de méthodologies expérimentales. Chaque période les clients doivent choisir un prestataire de servivce. L'objectif est d'analyser l'impact des décisions des clients et des prestataires sur la formation des files d'attente. Dans un premier cas nous considérons des clients ayant un certain degré d'aversion au risque. Sur la base de leur perception de l'attente moyenne et de la variabilité de cette attente, ils forment une estimation de la limite supérieure de l'attente chez chacun des prestataires. Chaque période, ils choisissent le prestataire pour lequel cette estimation est la plus basse. Nos résultats indiquent qu'il n'y a pas de relation monotone entre le degré d'aversion au risque et la performance globale. En effet, une population de clients ayant un degré d'aversion au risque intermédiaire encoure généralement une attente moyenne plus élevée qu'une population d'agents indifférents au risque ou très averses au risque. Ensuite, nous incorporons les décisions des prestataires en leur permettant d'ajuster leur capacité de service sur la base de leur perception de la fréquence moyenne d'arrivées. Les résultats montrent que le comportement des clients et les décisions des prestataires présentent une forte "dépendance au sentier". En outre, nous montrons que les décisions des prestataires font converger l'attente moyenne pondérée vers l'attente de référence du marché. Finalement, une expérience de laboratoire dans laquelle des sujets jouent le rôle de prestataire de service nous a permis de conclure que les délais d'installation et de démantèlement de capacité affectent de manière significative la performance et les décisions des sujets. En particulier, les décisions du prestataire, sont influencées par ses commandes en carnet, sa capacité de service actuellement disponible et les décisions d'ajustement de capacité qu'il a prises, mais pas encore implémentées. - Queuing is a fact of life that we witness daily. We all have had the experience of waiting in line for some reason and we also know that it is an annoying situation. As the adage says "time is money"; this is perhaps the best way of stating what queuing problems mean for customers. Human beings are not very tolerant, but they are even less so when having to wait in line for service. Banks, roads, post offices and restaurants are just some examples where people must wait for service. Studies of queuing phenomena have typically addressed the optimisation of performance measures (e.g. average waiting time, queue length and server utilisation rates) and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. The individual behaviour of the agents involved in queueing systems and their decision making process have received little attention. Although this work has been useful to improve the efficiency of many queueing systems, or to design new processes in social and physical systems, it has only provided us with a limited ability to explain the behaviour observed in many real queues. In this dissertation we differ from this traditional research by analysing how the agents involved in the system make decisions instead of focusing on optimising performance measures or analysing an equilibrium solution. This dissertation builds on and extends the framework proposed by van Ackere and Larsen (2004) and van Ackere et al. (2010). We focus on studying behavioural aspects in queueing systems and incorporate this still underdeveloped framework into the operations management field. In the first chapter of this thesis we provide a general introduction to the area, as well as an overview of the results. In Chapters 2 and 3, we use Cellular Automata (CA) to model service systems where captive interacting customers must decide each period which facility to join for service. They base this decision on their expectations of sojourn times. Each period, customers use new information (their most recent experience and that of their best performing neighbour) to form expectations of sojourn time at the different facilities. Customers update their expectations using an adaptive expectations process to combine their memory and their new information. We label "conservative" those customers who give more weight to their memory than to the xiv Summary new information. In contrast, when they give more weight to new information, we call them "reactive". In Chapter 2, we consider customers with different degree of risk-aversion who take into account uncertainty. They choose which facility to join based on an estimated upper-bound of the sojourn time which they compute using their perceptions of the average sojourn time and the level of uncertainty. We assume the same exogenous service capacity for all facilities, which remains constant throughout. We first analyse the collective behaviour generated by the customers' decisions. We show that the system achieves low weighted average sojourn times when the collective behaviour results in neighbourhoods of customers loyal to a facility and the customers are approximately equally split among all facilities. The lowest weighted average sojourn time is achieved when exactly the same number of customers patronises each facility, implying that they do not wish to switch facility. In this case, the system has achieved the Nash equilibrium. We show that there is a non-monotonic relationship between the degree of risk-aversion and system performance. Customers with an intermediate degree of riskaversion typically achieve higher sojourn times; in particular they rarely achieve the Nash equilibrium. Risk-neutral customers have the highest probability of achieving the Nash Equilibrium. Chapter 3 considers a service system similar to the previous one but with risk-neutral customers, and relaxes the assumption of exogenous service rates. In this sense, we model a queueing system with endogenous service rates by enabling managers to adjust the service capacity of the facilities. We assume that managers do so based on their perceptions of the arrival rates and use the same principle of adaptive expectations to model these perceptions. We consider service systems in which the managers' decisions take time to be implemented. Managers are characterised by a profile which is determined by the speed at which they update their perceptions, the speed at which they take decisions, and how coherent they are when accounting for their previous decisions still to be implemented when taking their next decision. We find that the managers' decisions exhibit a strong path-dependence: owing to the initial conditions of the model, the facilities of managers with identical profiles can evolve completely differently. In some cases the system becomes "locked-in" into a monopoly or duopoly situation. The competition between managers causes the weighted average sojourn time of the system to converge to the exogenous benchmark value which they use to estimate their desired capacity. Concerning the managers' profile, we found that the more conservative Summary xv a manager is regarding new information, the larger the market share his facility achieves. Additionally, the faster he takes decisions, the higher the probability that he achieves a monopoly position. In Chapter 4 we consider a one-server queueing system with non-captive customers. We carry out an experiment aimed at analysing the way human subjects, taking on the role of the manager, take decisions in a laboratory regarding the capacity of a service facility. We adapt the model proposed by van Ackere et al (2010). This model relaxes the assumption of a captive market and allows current customers to decide whether or not to use the facility. Additionally the facility also has potential customers who currently do not patronise it, but might consider doing so in the future. We identify three groups of subjects whose decisions cause similar behavioural patterns. These groups are labelled: gradual investors, lumpy investors, and random investor. Using an autocorrelation analysis of the subjects' decisions, we illustrate that these decisions are positively correlated to the decisions taken one period early. Subsequently we formulate a heuristic to model the decision rule considered by subjects in the laboratory. We found that this decision rule fits very well for those subjects who gradually adjust capacity, but it does not capture the behaviour of the subjects of the other two groups. In Chapter 5 we summarise the results and provide suggestions for further work. Our main contribution is the use of simulation and experimental methodologies to explain the collective behaviour generated by customers' and managers' decisions in queueing systems as well as the analysis of the individual behaviour of these agents. In this way, we differ from the typical literature related to queueing systems which focuses on optimising performance measures and the analysis of equilibrium solutions. Our work can be seen as a first step towards understanding the interaction between customer behaviour and the capacity adjustment process in queueing systems. This framework is still in its early stages and accordingly there is a large potential for further work that spans several research topics. Interesting extensions to this work include incorporating other characteristics of queueing systems which affect the customers' experience (e.g. balking, reneging and jockeying); providing customers and managers with additional information to take their decisions (e.g. service price, quality, customers' profile); analysing different decision rules and studying other characteristics which determine the profile of customers and managers.

Collective symbolic coping with disease threat and othering: A case study of avian influenza

Much research studies how individuals cope with disease threat by blaming out-groups and protecting the in-group. The model of collective symbolic coping (CSC) describes four stages by which representations of a threatening event are elaborated in the mass media: awareness, divergence, convergence, and normalization. We used the CSC model to predict when symbolic in-group protection (othering) would occur in the case of the avian influenza (AI) outbreak. Two studies documented CSC stages and showed that othering occurred during the divergence stage, characterized by an uncertain symbolic environment. Study 1 analysed media coverage of AI over time, documenting CSC stages of awareness and divergence. In Study 2, a two-wave repeated cross-sectional survey was conducted just after the divergence stage and a year later. Othering was measured by the number of foreign countries erroneously ticked by participants as having human victims. Individual differences in germ aversion and social dominance orientation interacted to predict othering during the divergence stage but not a year later. Implications for research on CSC and symbolic in-group protection strategies resulting from disease threat are discussed.

Multiple sclerosis decreases explicit counterfactual processing and risk taking in decision making.

INTRODUCTION: Deficits in decision making (DM) are commonly associated with prefrontal cortical damage, but may occur with multiple sclerosis (MS). There are no data concerning the impact of MS on tasks evaluating DM under explicit risk, where different emotional and cognitive components can be distinguished. METHODS: We assessed 72 relapsing-remitting MS (RRMS) patients with mild to moderate disease and 38 healthy controls in two DM tasks involving risk with explicit rules: (1) The Wheel of Fortune (WOF), which probes the anticipated affects of decisions outcomes on future choices; and (2) The Cambridge Gamble Task (CGT) which measures risk taking. Participants also underwent a neuropsychological and emotional assessment, and skin conductance responses (SCRs) were recorded. RESULTS: In the WOF, RRMS patients showed deficits in integrating positive counterfactual information (p<0.005) and greater risk aversion (p<0.001). They reported less negative affect than controls (disappointment: p = 0.007; regret: p = 0.01), although their implicit emotional reactions as measured by post-choice SCRs did not differ. In the CGT, RRMS patients differed from controls in quality of DM (p = 0.01) and deliberation time (p = 0.0002), the latter difference being correlated with attention scores. Such changes did not result in overall decreases in performance (total gains). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of DM under risk was modified by MS in both tasks. The reduction in the expression of disappointment coexisted with an increased risk aversion in the WOF and alexithymia features. These concomitant emotional alterations may have implications for better understanding the components of explicit DM and for the clinical support of MS patients.

Safety Traps

Fear of risk provides a rationale for protracted economic downturns. We develop a real business cycle model where investors with decreasing relative risk aversion choose between a risky and a safe technology that exhibit decreasing returns. Because of a feedback effect from the interest rate to risk aversion, two equilibria can emerge: a standard equilibrium and a "safe" one in which investors invest in safer assets. We refer to the dynamics of this second equilibrium as a safety trap because it is self-reinforcing as investors accumulate more wealth and show it to be consistent with Japan's lost decade.