From deep seated slope deformation to rock avalanche: Destabilization and transportation models of the Sierre landslide (Switzerland)

Sackung is a widespread post-glacial morphological feature affecting Alpine mountains and creating characteristic geomorphological expression that can be detected from topography. Over long time evolution, internal deformation can lead to the formation of rapidly moving phenomena such as a rock-slide or rock avalanche. In this study, a detailed description of the Sierre rock-avalanche (SW Switzerland) is presented. This convex-shaped postglacial instability is one of the larger rock-avalanche in the Alps, involving more than 1.5 billion m3 with a run-out distance of about 14 km and extremely low Fahrböschung angle. This study presents comprehensive analyses of the structural and geological characteristics leading to the development of the Sierre rock-avalanche. In particular, by combining field observations, digital elevation model analyses and numerical modelling, the strong influence of both ductile and brittle tectonic structures on the failure mechanism and on the failure surface geometry is highlighted. The detection of pre-failure deformation indicates that the development of the rock avalanche corresponds to the last evolutionary stage of a pre-existing deep seated gravitational slope instability. These analyses accompanied by the dating and the characterization of rock avalanche deposits, allow the proposal of a destabilization model that clarifies the different phases leading to the development of the Sierre rock avalanche.

Applying machine learning methods to avalanche forecasting

Avalanche forecasting is a complex process involving the assimilation of multiple data sources to make predictions over varying spatial and temporal resolutions. Numerically assisted forecasting often uses nearest neighbour methods (NN), which are known to have limitations when dealing with high dimensional data. We apply Support Vector Machines to a dataset from Lochaber, Scotland to assess their applicability in avalanche forecasting. Support Vector Machines (SVMs) belong to a family of theoretically based techniques from machine learning and are designed to deal with high dimensional data. Initial experiments showed that SVMs gave results which were comparable with NN for categorical and probabilistic forecasts. Experiments utilising the ability of SVMs to deal with high dimensionality in producing a spatial forecast show promise, but require further work.

Volcanic debris avalanche deposits of the upper Maronne valley (Cantal Volcano, France): evidence for contrasted formation and transport mechanisms

The deposits of two volcanic debris avalanches (VDA I and II) that occur in the upper Maronne valley, northwest sector of Cantal Volcano, France, were studied to establish their mechanisms of formation, transport and deposition. These two volcanic debris avalanches that clearly differ with regard to their structures, textures and extensions, exemplify the wide spectrum of events associated with large-scale sector collapse. VDA I is voluminous (similar to1 km(3) in the upper Maronne valley) and widespread. The deposits comprise two distinct facies: the block facies that forms the intermediate and upper part of the unit and the mixed facies that crops out essentially at the base of the unit. The block facies consists of more or less brecciated lava, block-and-ash-flow breccia and pumice-flow tuff megablocks set in breccias resulting from block disaggregation. Mixing and differential movements are almost absent in this part of the VDA. The mixed facies consists of breccias rich in fine particles that originate from block disagregation, as well as being picked up from the substratum during movement. Mixing and differential movements are predominant in this zone. Analysis of fractures on lava megablocks suggests that shear stress during the initial sliding is the principal cause of fracture. These data strongly indicate that VDA I is purely gravitational and argue for a model in which the initial sliding mass transforms into a flow due to differential in situ fragmentation caused by the shear stress. VDA II is restricted to low-topography areas. Its volume, in the studied area, is about 0.3 km(3). The deposits consist of brecciated, rounded blocks and megablocks set in a fine-grained matrix composed essentially of volcanic glass. This unit is stratified, with a massive layer that contains all the megablocks at the base and in the intermediate part, and in the upper part a normally graded layer that contains only blocks <1 m in size. The different lithologies present are totally mixed. These observations suggest that VDA II may be of the Bezymianny-type and that it underwent a flow transformation from a turbulent to a stratified flow consisting of a basal hyperconcentrated laminar body overlain by a dilute layer. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating sampling strategies and logistic regression methods for modelling complex land cover changes

The role of land cover change as a significant component of global change has become increasingly recognized in recent decades. Large databases measuring land cover change, and the data which can potentially be used to explain the observed changes, are also becoming more commonly available. When developing statistical models to investigate observed changes, it is important to be aware that the chosen sampling strategy and modelling techniques can influence results. We present a comparison of three sampling strategies and two forms of grouped logistic regression models (multinomial and ordinal) in the investigation of patterns of successional change after agricultural land abandonment in Switzerland. Results indicated that both ordinal and nominal transitional change occurs in the landscape and that the use of different sampling regimes and modelling techniques as investigative tools yield different results. Synthesis and applications. Our multimodel inference identified successfully a set of consistently selected indicators of land cover change, which can be used to predict further change, including annual average temperature, the number of already overgrown neighbouring areas of land and distance to historically destructive avalanche sites. This allows for more reliable decision making and planning with respect to landscape management. Although both model approaches gave similar results, ordinal regression yielded more parsimonious models that identified the important predictors of land cover change more efficiently. Thus, this approach is favourable where land cover change pattern can be interpreted as an ordinal process. Otherwise, multinomial logistic regression is a viable alternative.

Stratigraphic significance of siliceous microfossils collected during Nautiperc dives (Off Peru, 5°-6° S)

The geological evolution of the northern Peru convergent margin can be traced using samples collected during deep-sea dives of the submersible Nautile. In the Paita area (5 degrees-6 degrees S), the sedimentary sequence was intensively sampled along the main scarp of the middle slope area. It consists of Upper Miocene (7-9 Ma) to Pleistocene siltstone, sandstone and rare dolostone. The age distribution of these samples is the basis for a new geologic interpretation of the multichannel seismic line CDP3. Siliceous microfossils (both diatoms and radiolarians) show influence of both cold and temperate waters (local species mixed with upwelling ones). Diatom assemblages studied from the NP1-13 and NP1-15 dives bear a strong resemblance to assemblages from the Pisco Formation of southern Peru. Micropaleontological data from siliceous microfossils, provide evidence for two main unconformities, one is at the base of the Quaternary sequence and the other corresponds to a hiatus of 1 Myr, separating the Upper Miocene (7-8 Ma) sediments from uppermost Miocene (5-6 Ma) sediments. During the past 400 kyr, a wide rollover fold developed in the middle slope area associated with a major seaward dipping detachment fault. A catastrophic debris avalanche occurred as the result of an oversteepening of the landward flank of the rollover fold. The gravity failure of the slope, recognized by SeaBEAM and hydrosweep mapping, displaced enough material to produce a destructive tsunami which occurred 13.8 +/- 2.7 kyr ago.

Ecologie industrielle de l'aluminium, flux de matières et d'énergie : réalités et enjeux du recyclage

Dans les dernières années du 20ème siècle, l'aluminium a fait l'objet de beaucoup de communications outrancières et divergentes cautionnées par des scientifiques et des organismes faisant autorité. En 1986, la société PECHINEY le décrète perpétuel tel le mouvement « L'aluminium est éternel. Il est recyclable indéfiniment sans que ses propriétés soient altérées », ce qui nous avait alors irrité. Peu de temps après, en 1990, une communication tout aussi outrancière et irritante d'une grande organisation environnementale, le World Wild Fund, décrète que « le recyclage de l'aluminium est la pire menace pour l'environnement. Il doit être abandonné ». C'est ensuite à partir de la fin des années 1990, l'explosion des publications relatives au développement durable, le bien mal nommé. Au développement, synonyme de croissance obligatoire, nous préférons société ou organisation humaine et à durable, mauvaise traduction de l'anglais « sustainable », nous préférons supportable : idéalement, nous aurions souhaité parler de société durable, mais, pour être compris de tous, nous nous sommes limités à parler dorénavant de développement supportable. Pour l'essentiel, ces publications reconnaissent les très graves défauts de la métallurgie extractive de l'aluminium à partir du minerai et aussi les mérites extraordinaires du recyclage de l'aluminium puisqu'il représente moins de 10% de la consommation d'énergie de la métallurgie extractive à partir du minerai (on verra que c'est aussi moins de 10% de la pollution et du capital). C'est précisément sur le recyclage que se fondent les campagnes de promotion de l'emballage boisson, en Suisse en particulier. Cependant, les données concernant le recyclage de l'aluminium publiées par l'industrie de l'aluminium reflètent seulement en partie ces mérites. Dans les années 1970, les taux de croissance de la production recyclée sont devenus plus élevés que ceux de la production électrolytique. Par contre, les taux de recyclage, établis à indicateur identique, sont unanimement tous médiocres comparativement à d'autres matériaux tels le cuivre et le fer. Composante de l'industrie de l'aluminium, le recyclage bénéficie d'une image favorable auprès du grand public, démontrant le succès des campagnes de communication. A l'inverse, à l'intérieur de l'industrie de l'aluminium, c'est une image dévalorisée. Les opinions émises par tous les acteurs, commerçants, techniciens, dirigeants, encore recueillies pendant ce travail, sont les suivantes : métier de chiffonnier, métier misérable, métier peu technique mais très difficile (un recycleur 15 d'aluminium n'a-t-il pas dit que son métier était un métier d'homme alors que celui du recycleur de cuivre était un jeu d'enfant). A notre avis ces opinions appartiennent à un passé révolu qu'elles retraduisent cependant fidèlement car le recyclage est aujourd'hui reconnu comme une contribution majeure au développement supportable de l'aluminium. C'est bien pour cette raison que, en 2000, l'industrie de l'aluminium mondiale a décidé d'abandonner le qualificatif « secondaire » jusque là utilisé pour désigner le métal recyclé. C'est en raison de toutes ces données discordantes et parfois contradictoires qu'a débuté ce travail encouragé par de nombreuses personnalités. Notre engagement a été incontestablement facilité par notre connaissance des savoirs indispensables (métallurgie, économie, statistiques) et surtout notre expérience acquise au cours d'une vie professionnelle menée à l'échelle mondiale dans (recherche et développement, production), pour (recherche, développement, marketing, stratégie) et autour (marketing, stratégie de produits connexes, les ferro-alliages, et concurrents, le fer) de l'industrie de l'aluminium. Notre objectif est de faire la vérité sur le recyclage de l'aluminium, un matériau qui a très largement contribué à faire le 20ème siècle, grâce à une revue critique embrassant tous les aspects de cette activité méconnue ; ainsi il n'y a pas d'histoire du recyclage de l'aluminium alors qu'il est plus que centenaire. Plus qu'une simple compilation, cette revue critique a été conduite comme une enquête scientifique, technique, économique, historique, socio-écologique faisant ressortir les faits principaux ayant marqué l'évolution du recyclage de l'aluminium. Elle conclut sur l'état réel du recyclage, qui se révèle globalement satisfaisant avec ses forces et ses faiblesses, et au-delà du recyclage sur l'adéquation de l'aluminium au développement supportable, adéquation largement insuffisante. C'est pourquoi, elle suggère les thèmes d'études intéressant tous ceux scientifiques, techniciens, historiens, économistes, juristes concernés par une industrie très représentative de notre monde en devenir, un monde où la place de l'aluminium dépendra de son aptitude à satisfaire les critères du développement supportable. ABSTRACT Owing to recycling, the aluminium industry's global energetic and environmental prints are much lower than its ore extractive metallurgy's ones. Likewise, recycling will allow the complete use of the expected avalanche of old scraps, consequently to the dramatic explosion of aluminium consumption since the 50's. The recycling state is characterized by: i) raw materials split in two groups :one, the new scrap, internal and prompt, proportional to semi-finished and finished products quantities, exhibits a fairly good and regular quality. The other, the old scrap, proportional to the finished products arrivïng at their end-of--life, about 22 years later on an average, exhibits a variable quality depending on the collect mode. ii) a poor recycling rate, near by that of steel. The aluminium industry generates too much new internal scrap and doesn't collect all the availa~e old scrap. About 50% of it is not recycled (when steel is recycling about 70% of the old scrap flow). iii) recycling techniques, all based on melting, are well handled in spite of aluminium atiiníty to oxygen and the practical impossibility to purify aluminium from any impurity. Sorting and first collect are critical issues before melting. iv) products and markets of recycled aluminium :New scraps have still been recycled in the production lines from where there are coming (closed loop). Old scraps, mainly those mixed, have been first recycled in different production lines (open loop) :steel deoxidation products followed during the 30's, with the development of the foundry alloys, by foundry pieces of which the main market is the automotive industry. During the 80's, the commercial development of the beverage can in North America has permitted the first old scrap recycling closed loop which is developing. v) an economy with low and erratic margins because the electrolytic aluminium quotation fixes scrap purchasing price and recycled aluminium selling price. vi) an industrial organisation historically based on the scrap group and the loop mode. New scrap is recycled either by the transformation industry itself or by the recycling industry, the remelter, old scrap by the refiner, the other component of the recycling industry. The big companies, the "majors" are often involved in the closed loop recycling and very seldom in the open loop one. To-day, aluminium industry's global energetic and environmental prints are too unbeara~ e and the sustainaЫe development criteria are not fully met. Critical issues for the aluminium industry are to better produce, to better consume and to better recycle in order to become a real sustainaЫe development industry. Specific issues to recycling are a very efficient recycling industry, a "sustainaЫe development" economy, a complete old scrap collect favouring the closed loop. Also, indirectly connected to the recycling, are a very efficient transformation industry generating much less new scrap and a finished products industry delivering only products fulfilling sustainaЫe development criteria.

Ombres et lumières de l'accès public a la défibrillation [Public access defibrillation]

La stratégie d'accès public à la défibrillation (APD) comprend l'installation de défibrillateurs automatiques externes (DAE) dans les lieux publics et l'entraînement de sauveteurs non professionnels à la réanimation cardio pulmonaire et à la défibrillation (RCP-D). Cette approche est recommandée pour le traitement des arrêts cardiaques (ACR) dans les lieux publics. Beaucoup d'études d'observation, mais peu d'études randomisées s'intéressant à cette approche ont été publiées. Cet article résume les différentes approches proposées dans le cadre d'APD. A notre avis, l'installation de DAE dans des lieux publics ou le choix d'une stratégie alternative doivent être précédés d'une étude de la démographie locale des ACR et de l'entraînement du plus grand nombre possible de laïcs à la reconnaissance des signes précurseurs d'ACR et au massage cardiaque externe. Placement of automated external defibrillators (AED) in public facilities and training of the lay persons in basic life support-defibrillation (BLS-D) was recommended by the American Heart Association for the treatment of out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA). Immediate use of AED result in increase of survival to hospital discharge. Many observation and much less randomized trials describe clinical efficacy of this approach. However, "negative" trials have also been published and some recent data suggest that public access defibrillation (PAD) will have a minimal impact on population survival. In this article various PAD strategies were briefly reviewed. In our opinion installation of AED in public places should be based on the long-term study of local OHCA demography and preceded by widespread BLS training of lay population.

Remodelage des canaux potassiques dépendants de l'ATP lors de l'hypertrophie et de l'insuffisance cardiaque

RESUME :Introduction. Les maladies cardiovasculaires représentent la première cause de mortalité dans les pays développés et l'insuffisance cardiaque (IC) est la plus fréquente. Suite à un infarctus, le coeur des patients subit un remodelage ventriculaire pouvant évoluer vers un état d'IC. L'IC se définit comme un état dans lequel le coeur n'est plus capable d'approvisionner suffisamment les organes et cet état s'accompagne souvent de troubles du rythme cardiaque. Le remodelage ventriculaire touche de nombreux gènes codant à la fois pour les voies métaboliques et pour des canaux ioniques favorisant ainsi l'apparition des arythmies responsables de la mort subite des patients atteints d'IC. Comprendre ce passage entre remodelage et IC est crucial afin de pouvoir un jour prévenir l'IC et les complications médicales qui l'accompagnent. Nous nous sommes intéressés aux canaux potassiques dépendants de l'ATP (KATP) car ces canaux ont la capacité de coupler le métabolisme de la cellule à son activité électrique. En effet, les canaux KATP s'ouvrent quand la charge énergétique (rapport ATP/ ADP) de la cellule chute. Dans les cardiomyocytes, l'ouverture des KATP induit une hyperpolarisation de la membrane cellulaire ce qui diminue indirectement la surcharge calcique et de ce fait préserve la cellule. Les canaux KATp sont formés de 4 sous-unités Kir6.x (Kir6.1 ou Kir6.2) formant le pore du canal associées à 4 sous-unités régulatrices SUR. Les propriétés électrophysiologiques ainsi que la sensibilité pharmacologique des canaux KATP dépendent de leur composition et seuls les canaux KATP formés par la sous-unité Kirô.l sont activés par le diazoxyde.Méthodes et résultats. Nous avons d'abord montré dans un modèle in vivo d'IC chez le rat adulte que les sous-unités Kir6.1 et SUR sont surexprimées dans ces conditions pathologiques. Par ailleurs, les cardiomyocytes issus des coeurs infarcis deviennent sensibles au diazoxyde reflétant la surexpression de Kir6.1. Les potentiels d'action qui sont prolongés dans l'IC et qui sont à l'origine d'arythmies majeures sont normalisés par l'ouverture des canaux KATp induite par le diazoxyde. Ainsi, l'ouverture pharmacologique des canaux KATp contribuerait à la cardio-protection. Dans une seconde partie, nous avons déterminé quels étaient les facteurs de transcription responsables de ce changement d'expression des sous-unités formant les KATP. Dans notre modèle, nous avons pu montrer que la surexpression de Kirô.l est due aux facteurs de transcription Fox03 et FoxF2 qui est aussi responsable de la surexpression des sous-unités SUR. Dans la dernière partie de ce travail, nous avons mis au point un modèle d'IC in vitro en cultivant les cardiomyocytes de rats adultes en présence d'angiotensine II (Angll) ou de TNFa. Ce modèle expérimental nous a non seulement permis de mettre en relation l'importance de L'AnglI et du TNFa sur le remodelage des canaux KATP mais aussi de développer un modèle in vitro présentant les mêmes caractéristiques que le modèle in vivo concernant le remodelage des KATP lors de l'IC. Ce dernier modèle expérimental ouvre des perspectives afin de mieux caractériser les voies de signalisation impliquées dans le remodelage des canaux KATp lors de l'IC.Conclusion. Les canaux KATp subissent un remodelage lors de l'IC et les résultats obtenus montrent le potentiel cardio-protecteur de ces canaux.ABSTRACT :Background and aim. Cardiovascular disease is the leading cause of death in developed countries and heart failure (HF) is the most common. Following myocardial infarction, the heart of the patient undergoes ventricular remodeling which may evolve toward a state of HF. HF is defined as a state in which heart is unable to supply enough blood to organs and this state is often accompanied by cardiac arrhythmias. Ventricular remodeling involves many genes coding for both metabolic enzymes and ion channels. Changes in ion channel expression can promote arrhythmias responsible for sudden death in patients with HF. A better understanding of the transition between remodeling and HF is crucial in order to prevent the complications associated to HF We were interested in ATP-dependent potassium channels (KATp) because they couple cell metabolism to electrical activity of the cell. Indeed, KATP channels open when the energy charge (ratio of ATP / ADP) of the cell collapses. In cardiomyocytes, the opening of KATP channels induces hyper- polanzation of the cell membrane which reduces calcium overload and thereby protects the cell. KATp channels are composed by 4 Kir6.x subumts (Kir6.1 or Kir6.2) forming the pore channel associated with 4 regulatory subunits SUR. The electrophysiological properties as well as pharmacological sensitivity of KATp channels depend on their composition and only KATP channels formed by Kir6.1 subunit are activated by diazoxide.Methods and results. Firstly, using an in vivo model of HF in adult rats, we showed that Kir6.1 and SUR subunits are overexpressed in HF. In addition, cardiomyocytes from post-infarction hearts became sensitive to diazoxide reflecting the overexpression of the Kir6.1 subunit. The opening of KATP by diazoxide tended to reduce the action potential duration (APD) which is extended in HF. This increase in APD is known to be a major source of arrhythmias during HF. Therefore, the opening of KATP channels by diazoxide would be cardio-protective. Secondly, we wanted to determine which transcription factors were responsible for this KATP remodeling. In our model of HF, we showed that overexpression of Kir6.1 is due to the transcription factors Fox03 and FOXF2 which is also responsible for SUR subunits overexpression. Thirdly, we developed an in vitro model of HF by cultivation of adult rat cardiomyocytes in the presence of angiotensin II (Angll) or TNFa. This model is very interesting not only because it underlines the importance of Angll and TNFa in KATp remodeling but also because this in vitro model presents the same KATP remodeling as the in vivo model of HF. These findings show that our in vitro model of HF opens up many possibilities to investigate more precisely the signaling pathways involved in remodeling of the KATP channels in HF.Conclusion. KATP channels undergo remodeling during HF and our results show the cardio¬protective potential of KATP channels in this disease.

Analysis of past and future dam formation and failure in the Santa Cruz River (San Juan province, Argentina)

Around 11.5 * 106 m3 of rock detached from the eastern slope of the Santa Cruz valley (San Juan province, Argentina) in the first fortnight of January 2005. The rockslide?debris avalanche blocked the course, resulting in the development of a lake with maximum length of around 3.5 km. The increase in the inflow rate from 47,000?74,000 m3/d between April and October to 304,000 m3/d between late October and the first fortnight of November, accelerated the growing rate of the lake. On 12 November 2005 the dam failed, releasing 24.6 * 106 m3 of water. The resulting outburst flood caused damages mainly on infrastructure, and affected the facilities of a hydropower dam which was under construction 250 km downstream from the source area. In this work we describe causes and consequences of the natural dam formation and failure, and we dynamically model the 2005 rockslide?debris avalanche with DAN3D. Additionally, as a volume ~ 24 * 106 m3of rocks still remain unstable in the slope, we use the results of the back analysis to forecast the formation of a future natural dam. We analyzed two potential scenarios: a partial slope failure of 6.5 * 106 m3 and a worst case where all the unstable volume remaining in the slope fails. The spreading of those potential events shows that a new blockage of the Santa Cruz River is likely to occur. According to their modeled morphometry and the contributing watershed upstream the blockage area, as the one of 2005, the dams would also be unstable. This study shows the importance of back and forward analysis that can be carried out to obtain critical information for land use planning, hazards mitigation, and emergency management.

Fragmentation energy in rock avalanches

La fragmentation est un des mécanismes opérant lors d'avalanche rocheuses. La quantification de l'énergie associée à ce mécanisme permettrait d'apprécier l'influence de celui-ci sur la phase post-rupture d'une avalanche rocheuse. Dans cet article, les distributions des tailles des blocs du massif rocheux et des débris sont présentées et comparées pour neuf cas d'avalanches rocheuses : cinq dans les montagnes Rocheuses canadiennes et quatre dans les Alpes européennes. Des degrés de fragmentation ont pu être estimés. Pour évaluer l'énergie de fragmentation, deux méthodes on été examinées : l'une est basée sur l'énergie de concassage et l'autre est basée sur l'énergie de sautage utilisée dans le domaine minier. Les résultats obtenus portent à croire qu'il y aurait une relation entre l'indice de réduction de taille (Rr = D50/d50) et l'énergie potentielle par unité de volume, normalisée par la résistance au double poinçonnement (?HG/?c). Les énergies de fragmentation calculées pour les neuf cas étudiés donne en moyenne 20 % de l'énergie potentielle. Une relation empirique entre Rr et ?HG/?c est proposée, et est par la suite utilisée pour définir un indice de désintégration (ID). Cet indice reflète la physique du processus de désintégration puisqu'il considère que l'indice de réduction de taille est fonction de l'énergie dissipée et de la résistance de la roche. Ces facteurs connus depuis longtemps n'avaient jamais été présentés d'une façon cohérente pour des cas d'avalanches rocheuses.Mots clés : avalanches rocheuses, désintégration, énergie de fragmentation, Rocheuses canadiennes, Alpes européennes.

Experiments on substratum roughness, grainsize and volume influence on the motion and spreading of rock avalanches

The main objective of the research is to link granular physics with the modelling of rock avalanches. Laboratory experiments consist to find a convenient granular material, i.e. grainsize and physical behaviour, and testing it on simple slope geometry. When the appropriate sliding material is selected, we attempted to model the debris avalanche and the spreading on a slope with different substratum to understand the relationship between the volume and the reach angle, i.e. angle of the line joining the top of the scar and the end of the deposit. For a better understanding of the mass spreading, the deposits are scanned with a laser scanner. Datasets are compared to see how the grain size and volume influence a debris avalanche. The relationship between the roughness and grainsize of the substratum shows that the spreading of the sliding mass is increased when the roughness of the substratum starts to be equivalent or greater than the grainsize of the flowing mass. The runout distance displays a more complex relationship, because a long runout distance implies that grains are less spread. This means that if the substratum is too rough the distance diminishes, as well if it is too smooth because the effect on the apparent friction decreases. Up to now our findings do not permit to validate any previous model (Melosh, 1987; Bagnold 1956).