Thermal niches are more conserved at cold than warm limits in arctic-alpine plant species

Aim Understanding the stability of realised niches is crucial for predicting the responses of species to climate change. One approach is to evaluate the niche differences of populations of the same species that occupy regions that are geographically disconnected. Here, we assess niche conservatism along thermal gradients for 26 plant species with a disjunct distribution between the Alps and the Arctic. Location European Alps and Norwegian Finnmark. Methods We collected a comprehensive dataset of 26 arctic-alpine plant occurrences in two regions. We assessed niche conservatism through a multi-species comparison and analysed species rankings at cold and warm thermal limits along two distinct gradients corresponding to (1) air temperatures at 2 meters above ground level and (2) elevation distances to the treeline (TLD) for the two regions. We assessed whether observed relationships were close to those predicted under thermal limit conservatism. Results We found a weak similarity in species ranking at the warm thermal limits. The range of warm thermal limits for the 26 species was much larger in the Alps than in Finnmark. We found a stronger similarity in species ranking and correspondence at the cold thermal limit along the gradients of 2-m temperature and TLD. Yet, along the 2-m temperature gradient, the cold thermal limits of species in the Alps were lower on average than those in Finnmark. Main conclusion We found low conservatism of the warm thermal limits but a stronger conservatism of the cold thermal limits. We suggest that biotic interactions at the warm thermal limit likely modulate species responses more strongly than at the cold limit. The differing biotic context between the two regions is likely responsible for the observed differences in realised niches.

Arctic warming will promote Atlantic-Pacific fish interchange

Throughout much of the Quaternary Period, inhospitable environmental conditions above the Arctic Circle have been a formidable barrier separating most marine organisms in the North Atlantic from those in the North Pacific(1,2). Rapid warming has begun to lift this barrier(3), potentially facilitating the interchange of marine biota between the two seas(4). Here, we forecast the potential northward progression of 515 fish species following climate change, and report the rate of potential species interchange between the Atlantic and the Pacific via the Northwest Passage and the Northeast Passage. For this, we projected niche-based models under climate change scenarios and simulated the spread of species through the passages when climatic conditions became suitable. Results reveal a complex range of responses during this century, and accelerated interchange after 2050. By 2100 up to 41 species could enter the Pacific and 44 species could enter the Atlantic, via one or both passages. Consistent with historical and recent biodiversity interchanges(5,6), this exchange of fish species may trigger changes for biodiversity and food webs in the North Atlantic and North Pacific, with ecological and economic consequences to ecosystems that at present contribute 39% to global marine fish landings.

Suitability, success and sinks: how do predictions of nesting distributions relate to fitness parameters in high arctic waders?

AimAlthough habitat suitability maps derived from species distribution models (SDMs) are often assumed to highlight locations that can sustain healthy populations over time, the relationship between suitability scores and fitness parameters has rarely been tested thoroughly. LocationZackenberg Valley, north-east Greenland. MethodsUsing 14years of data (1997-2010) representing three wader species (dunlin Calidris alpina, sanderling Calidris alba and ruddy turnstone Arenaria interpres), we tested the relationships between modelled suitability and fitness parameters at nesting locations. ResultsAmong the three species examined, only the ruddy turnstone exhibited significant relationships between suitability and nest success, but over time rather than space. During years with extensive snow cover in the landscape, the nesting sites of ruddy turnstone occurred in different habitats than were typically used across years. Moreover, in years with extensive snow cover, the ruddy turnstone initiated nests later and suffered from higher egg predation rates. Main conclusionOur results suggest that SDMs derived from species occurrences that include years of low reproductive success may over-estimate the potential suitable habitat in the landscape. Whenever possible, variation in reproductive success should be considered when building models to inform species' response to environmental change. species' response to environmental change.

How does the body-scale model affect back-calculated growth: the example of arctic charr Salvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland)

When back-calculating fish length from scale measurements, the choice of the body-scale relationship is a fundamental step. Using data from the arctic charrSalvelinus alpinus (L.) of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) we show the need for a curvilinear model, on both statistical and biological grounds. From several 2-parameters models, the log-linear relationship appears to provide the best fit. A 3-parameters, Bertalanffy model did not improve the fit. We show moreover that using the proportional model would lead to important misinterpretations of the data.

Contrasting diffusion of Quaternary gene pools across Europe: the case of the arctic-alpine Gentiana nivalis L. (Gentianaceae).

The fate of European arctic-alpine species during Pleistocene climatic oscillations still remains debated. Did these cold-adapted species invade much of the continental steppe or did they remain restricted to warmer slopes of inner mountain massifs? To examine this question, we investigated the phylogeography of Gentiana nivalis, a typical European arctic-alpine plant species. Genome fingerprinting analyses revealed that four genetic pools are actually unevenly distributed across the continent. One cluster covers almost all mountain massifs as well as northern areas, and thus coincides with a scenario of past distribution covering a large part of the European glacial steppe. In contrast, the three other lineages are strongly restricted spatially to western, central, and eastern Alps, respectively, thus arguing towards a scenario of in situ glacial survival. The coexistence of lineages with such contrasting demographic histories in Europe challenges our classical view of refugia and corroborates several hypotheses of biogeographers from the twentieth century.

Lower Triassic bryozoan beds from Ellesmere Island, High Arctic, Canada

In the Sverdrup Basin (Canadian Arctic), the Lower Triassic Blind Fiord Formation, comprising siltstone and shale, overlies various Middle to Late Permian (post-Wordian) sedimentary units. This formation is subdivided into three members: the Confederation Point, Smith Creek and Svartfjeld members of, respectively, Griesbachian-Dienerian, Smithian-Spathian and Spathian ages. Lower Triassic bryozoan beds are known from many sections of Ellesmere Island, but have never been studied in detail. During the Early Triassic biotic recovery interval, immediately following the Permian/Triassic extinction event, only one new bryozoan genus evolved in the Boreal region: Arcticopora. The first lower Triassic bryozoan bed appears in the upper part of the Confederation Point Member, and is dated as late Dienerian. Succeeding bryozoan levels occur in the upper Smith Creek Member, and are late Smithian-early Spathian in age. Bryozoan beds occupy a similar stratigraphic position in Spitsbergen. There, they occur scattered in silt to coarse sandstone beds, but also in bryozoan-dominated packstone beds resembling the packstone units in the uppermost part of the Confederation Point Member of Ellesmere Island. Previously, bryozoan-rich beds of Triassic age have not been reported, and the present work fills an important time gap in the bryozoan carbonate database

High connectivity in a long-lived High-Arctic seabird, the ivory gull Pagophila eburnea

Species may cope with rapid habitat changes by distribution shifts or adaptation to new conditions. A common feature of these responses is that they depend on how the process of dispersal connects populations, both demographically and genetically. We analyzed the genetic structure of a near-threatened high-Arctic seabird, the ivory gull (Pagophila eburnea) in order to infer the connectivity among gull colonies. We analyzed 343 individuals sampled from 16 localities across the circumpolar breeding range of ivory gulls, from northern Russia to the Canadian Arctic. To explore the roles of natal and breeding dispersal, we developed a population genetic model to relate dispersal behavior to the observed genetic structure of worldwide ivory gull populations. Our key finding is the striking genetic homogeneity of ivory gulls across their entire distribution range. The lack of population genetic structure found among colonies, in tandem with independent evidence of movement among colonies, suggests that ongoing effective dispersal is occurring across the Arctic Region. Our results contradict the dispersal patterns generally observed in seabirds where species movement capabilities are often not indicative of dispersal patterns. Model predictions show how natal and breeding dispersal may combine to shape the genetic homogeneity among ivory gull colonies separated by up to 2800 km. Although field data will be key to determine the role of dispersal for the demography of local colonies and refine the respective impacts of natal versus breeding dispersal, conservation planning needs to consider ivory gulls as a genetically homogeneous, Arctic-wide metapopulation effectively connected through dispersal.

Past climate-driven range shifts and population genetic diversity in arctic plants

AimHigh intra-specific genetic diversity is necessary for species adaptation to novel environments under climate change, but species tracking suitable conditions are losing alleles through successive founder events during range shift. Here, we investigated the relationship between range shift since the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) and extant population genetic diversity across multiple plant species to understand variability in species responses. LocationThe circumpolar Arctic and northern temperate alpine ranges. MethodsWe estimated the climatic niches of 30 cold-adapted plant species using range maps coupled with species distribution models and hindcasted species suitable areas to reconstructions of the mid-Holocene and LGM climates. We computed the species-specific migration distances from the species glacial refugia to their current distribution and correlated distances to extant genetic diversity in 1295 populations. Differential responses among species were related to life-history traits. ResultsWe found a negative association between inferred migration distances from refugia and genetic diversities in 25 species, but only 11 had statistically significant negative slopes. The relationships between inferred distance and population genetic diversity were steeper for insect-pollinated species than wind-pollinated species, but the difference among pollination system was marginally independent from phylogenetic autocorrelation. Main conclusionThe relationships between inferred migration distances and genetic diversities in 11 species, independent from current isolation, indicate that past range shifts were associated with a genetic bottleneck effect with an average of 21% loss of genetic diversity per 1000km(-1). In contrast, the absence of relationship in many species also indicates that the response is species specific and may be modulated by plant pollination strategies or result from more complex historical contingencies than those modelled here.