Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

Uptake of new treatment strategies for deep vein thrombosis: an international audit.

OBJECTIVE: Study of the uptake of new medical technologies provides useful information on the transfer of published evidence into usual practice. We conducted an audit of selected hospitals in three countries (Canada, France, and Switzerland) to identify clinical predictors of low-molecular-weight (LMW) heparin use and outpatient treatment, and to compare the pace of uptake of these new therapeutic approaches across hospitals. DESIGN: Historical review of medical records. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: We reviewed the medical records of 3043 patients diagnosed with deep vein thrombosis (DVT) in five Canadian, two French, and two Swiss teaching hospitals from 1994 to 1998. Measures. We explored independent clinical variables associated with LMW heparin use and outpatient treatment, and determined crude and adjusted rates of LMW heparin use and outpatient treatment across hospitals. RESULTS: For the years studied, the overall rates of LMW heparin use and outpatient treatment in the study sample were 34.1 and 15.8%, respectively, with higher rates of use in later years. Many comorbidities were negatively associated with outpatient treatment, and risk-adjusted rates of use of these new approaches varied significantly across hospitals. CONCLUSION: There has been a relatively rapid uptake of LMW heparins and outpatient treatment for DVT in their early years of availability, but the pace of uptake has varied considerably across hospitals and countries.

Guidelines for the clinical management of atrial fibrillation: a practical perspective.

Since the management of atrial fibrillation may be difficult in the individual patient, our purpose was to develop simple clinical recommendations to help the general internist manage this common clinical problem. Systematic review of the literature with evaluation of data-related evidence and framing of graded recommendations. Atrial fibrillation affects some 1% of the population in Western countries and is linked to a significant increase in morbidity and mortality. The management of atrial fibrillation requires individualised evaluation of the risks and benefits of therapeutic modalities, relying whenever possible on simple and validated tools. The two main points requiring a decision in clinical management are 1) whether or not to implement thromboembolic prevention therapy, and 2) whether preference should be given to a "rate control" or "rhythm control" strategy. Thromboembolic prophylaxis should be prescribed after individualised risk assessment: for patients at risk, oral anticoagulation with warfarin decreases the rate of embolic complications by 60% and aspirin by 20%, at the expense of an increased incidence of haemorrhagic complications. "Rate control" and "rhythm control" strategies are probably equivalent, and the choice should also be made on an individualised basis. To assist the physician in making his choices for the care of an atrial fibrillation patient we propose specific tables and algorithms, with graded recommendations. On the evidence of data from the literature we propose simple algorithms and tables for the clinical management of atrial fibrillation in the individual patient.

Outpatient treatment of pulmonary embolism.

Pulmonary embolism (PE) is traditionally treated in hospital. Growing evidence from non randomized prospective studies suggests that a substantial proportion of patients with non-massive PE might be safely treated in the outpatient setting using low molecular weight heparins. Based on this evidence, professional societies started to recommend outpatient care for selected patients with non-massive PE. Despite these recommendations, outpatient treatment of non-massive PE appears to be uncommon in clinical practice. The major barriers to PE outpatient care are, firstly, the uncertainty as how to identify low risk patients with PE who are candidates for outpatient care and secondly the lack of high quality evidence from randomized trials demonstrating the safety of PE outpatient care compared to traditional inpatient management. Also, although clinical prognostic models, echocardiography and cardiac biomarkers accurately identify low risk patients with PE in prospective studies, the benefit of risk stratification strategies based on these instruments should be demonstrated in prospective management studies and clinical trials before they can be implemented as decision aids to guide PE outpatient treatment. Before high quality evidence documenting the safety of an outpatient treatment approach is published, outpatient management of non-massive PE cannot be generally recommended.

Atrial assist device, a new alternative to lifelong anticoagulation?

OBJECTIVE: Atrial fibrillation is a very common heart arrhythmia, associated with a five-fold increase in the risk of embolic strokes. Treatment strategies encompass palliative drugs or surgical procedures all of which can restore sinus rhythm. Unfortunately, atria often fail to recover their mechanical function and patients therefore require lifelong anticoagulation therapy. A motorless volume displacing device (Atripump) based on artificial muscle technology, positioned on the external surface of atrium could avoid the need of oral anticoagulation and its haemorrhagic complications. An animal study was conducted in order to assess the haemodynamic effects that such a pump could provide. METHODS: Atripump is a dome-shape siliconecoated nitinol actuator sewn on the external surface of the atrium. It is driven by a pacemaker-like control unit. Five non-anticoagulated sheep were selected for this experiment. The right atrium was surgically exposed, the device sutured and connected. Haemodynamic parameters and intracardiac ultrasound (ICUS) data were recorded in each animal and under three conditions; baseline; atrial fibrillation (AF); atripump assisted AF (aaAF). RESULTS: In two animals, after 20 min of AF, small thrombi appeared in the right atrial appendix and were washed out once the pump was turned on. Assistance also enhanced atrial ejection fraction. 31% baseline; 5% during AF; 20% under aaAF. Right atrial systolic surfaces (cm2) were; 5.2 +/- 0.3 baseline; 6.2 +/- 0.1 AF; 5.4 +/- 0.3 aaAF. CONCLUSION: This compact and reliable pump seems to restore the atrial "kick" and prevents embolic events. It could avoid long-term anticoagulation therapy and open new hopes in the care of end-stage heart failure.