3 resultados para Anticipation

em Université de Lausanne, Switzerland


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Invasive plants can have different effects of ecosystem functioning and on the provision of ecosystem services, from strongly deleterious impacts to positive effects. The nature and intensity of such effects will depend on the service and ecosystem being considered, but also on features of life strategies of invaders that influence their invasiveness as well as their influence of key processes of receiving ecosystems. To address the combined effect of these various factors we developed a robust and efficient methodological framework that allows to identify areas of possible conflict between ecosystem services and alien invasive plants, considering interactions between landscape invasibility and species invasiveness. Our framework combines the statistical robustness of multi-model inference, efficient techniques to map ecosystem services, and life strategies as a functional link between invasion, functional changes and potential provision of services by invaded ecosystems. The framework was applied to a test region in Portugal, for which we could successfully predict the current patterns of plant invasion, of ecosystem service provision, and finally of probable conflict (expressing concern for negative impacts, and value for positive impacts on services) between alien species richness (total and per plant life strategy) and the potential provision of selected services. Potential conflicts were identified for all combinations of plant strategy and ecosystem service, with an emphasis for those concerning conflicts with carbon sequestration, water regulation and wood production. Lower levels of conflict were obtained between invasive plant strategies and the habitat for biodiversity supporting service. The added value of the proposed framework in the context of landscape management and planning is discussed in perspective of anticipation of conflicts, mitigation of negative impacts, and potentiation of positive effects of plant invasions on ecosystems and their services.

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Hatching is an important niche shift, and embryos in a wide range of taxa can either accelerate or delay this life-history switch in order to avoid stage-specific risks. Such behavior can occur in response to stress itself and to chemical cues that allow anticipation of stress. We studied the genetic organization of this phenotypic plasticity and tested whether there are differences among populations and across environments in order to learn more about the evolutionary potential of stress-induced hatching. As a study species, we chose the brown trout (Salmo trutta; Salmonidae). Gametes were collected from five natural populations (within one river network) and used for full-factorial in vitro fertilizations. The resulting embryos were either directly infected with Pseudomonas fluorescens or were exposed to waterborne cues from P. fluorescens-infected conspecifics. We found that direct inoculation with P. fluorescens increased embryonic mortality and induced hatching in all host populations. Exposure to waterborne cues revealed population-specific responses. We found significant additive genetic variation for hatching time, and genetic variation in trait plasticity. In conclusion, hatching is induced in response to infection and can be affected by waterborne cues of infection, but populations and families differ in their reaction to the latter.

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In the philosophical literature, self-deception is mainly approached through the analysis of paradoxes. Yet, it is agreed that self-deception is motivated by protection from distress. In this paper, we argue, with the help of findings from cognitive neuroscience and psychology, that self-deception is a type of affective coping. First, we criticize the main solutions to the paradoxes of self-deception. We then present a new approach to self-deception. Self-deception, we argue, involves three appraisals of the distressing evidence: (a) appraisal of the strength of evidence as uncertain, (b) low coping potential and (c) negative anticipation along the lines of Damasio's somatic marker hypothesis. At the same time, desire impacts the treatment of flattering evidence via dopamine. Our main proposal is that self-deception involves emotional mechanisms provoking a preference for immediate reward despite possible long-term negative repercussions. In the last part, we use this emotional model to revisit the philosophical paradoxes.