Scores to predict major bleeding risk during oral anticoagulation therapy: a prospective validation study.

BACKGROUND: Clinical scores may help physicians to better assess the individual risk/benefit of oral anticoagulant therapy. We aimed to externally validate and compare the prognostic performance of 7 clinical prediction scores for major bleeding events during oral anticoagulation therapy. METHODS: We followed 515 adult patients taking oral anticoagulants to measure the first major bleeding event over a 12-month follow-up period. The performance of each score to predict the risk of major bleeding and the physician's subjective assessment of bleeding risk were compared with the C statistic. RESULTS: The cumulative incidence of a first major bleeding event during follow-up was 6.8% (35/515). According to the 7 scoring systems, the proportions of major bleeding ranged from 3.0% to 5.7% for low-risk, 6.7% to 9.9% for intermediate-risk, and 7.4% to 15.4% for high-risk patients. The overall predictive accuracy of the scores was poor, with the C statistic ranging from 0.54 to 0.61 and not significantly different from each other (P=.84). Only the Anticoagulation and Risk Factors in Atrial Fibrillation score performed slightly better than would be expected by chance (C statistic, 0.61; 95% confidence interval, 0.52-0.70). The performance of the scores was not statistically better than physicians' subjective risk assessments (C statistic, 0.55; P=.94). CONCLUSION: The performance of 7 clinical scoring systems in predicting major bleeding events in patients receiving oral anticoagulation therapy was poor and not better than physicians' subjective assessments.

TRPM1 is mutated in patients with autosomal-recessive complete congenital stationary night blindness.

Night vision requires signaling from rod photoreceptors to adjacent bipolar cells in the retina. Mutations in the genes NYX and GRM6, expressed in ON bipolar cells, lead to a disruption of the ON bipolar cell response. This dysfunction is present in patients with complete X-linked and autosomal-recessive congenital stationary night blindness (CSNB) and can be assessed by standard full-field electroretinography (ERG), showing severely reduced rod b-wave amplitude and slightly altered cone responses. Although many cases of complete CSNB (cCSNB) are caused by mutations in NYX and GRM6, in approximately 60% of the patients the gene defect remains unknown. Animal models of human diseases are a good source for candidate genes, and we noted that a cCSNB phenotype present in homozygous Appaloosa horses is associated with downregulation of TRPM1. TRPM1, belonging to the family of transient receptor potential channels, is expressed in ON bipolar cells and therefore qualifies as an excellent candidate. Indeed, mutation analysis of 38 patients with CSNB identified ten unrelated cCSNB patients with 14 different mutations in this gene. The mutation spectrum comprises missense, splice-site, deletion, and nonsense mutations. We propose that the cCSNB phenotype in these patients is due to the absence of functional TRPM1 in retinal ON bipolar cells.