Causal relationship between obesity and vitamin D status: bi-directional Mendelian randomization analysis of multiple cohorts.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is associated with vitamin D deficiency, and both are areas of active public health concern. We explored the causality and direction of the relationship between body mass index (BMI) and 25-hydroxyvitamin D [25(OH)D] using genetic markers as instrumental variables (IVs) in bi-directional Mendelian randomization (MR) analysis. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We used information from 21 adult cohorts (up to 42,024 participants) with 12 BMI-related SNPs (combined in an allelic score) to produce an instrument for BMI and four SNPs associated with 25(OH)D (combined in two allelic scores, separately for genes encoding its synthesis or metabolism) as an instrument for vitamin D. Regression estimates for the IVs (allele scores) were generated within-study and pooled by meta-analysis to generate summary effects. Associations between vitamin D scores and BMI were confirmed in the Genetic Investigation of Anthropometric Traits (GIANT) consortium (n = 123,864). Each 1 kg/m(2) higher BMI was associated with 1.15% lower 25(OH)D (p = 6.52×10⁻²⁷). The BMI allele score was associated both with BMI (p = 6.30×10⁻⁶²) and 25(OH)D (-0.06% [95% CI -0.10 to -0.02], p = 0.004) in the cohorts that underwent meta-analysis. The two vitamin D allele scores were strongly associated with 25(OH)D (p≤8.07×10⁻⁵⁷ for both scores) but not with BMI (synthesis score, p = 0.88; metabolism score, p = 0.08) in the meta-analysis. A 10% higher genetically instrumented BMI was associated with 4.2% lower 25(OH)D concentrations (IV ratio: -4.2 [95% CI -7.1 to -1.3], p = 0.005). No association was seen for genetically instrumented 25(OH)D with BMI, a finding that was confirmed using data from the GIANT consortium (p≥0.57 for both vitamin D scores). CONCLUSIONS: On the basis of a bi-directional genetic approach that limits confounding, our study suggests that a higher BMI leads to lower 25(OH)D, while any effects of lower 25(OH)D increasing BMI are likely to be small. Population level interventions to reduce BMI are expected to decrease the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Analysis of selectin ligands supporting hematologic malignancy cell interactions with their microenvironment : focus on leukemia and multiple myeloma

CONTEXTE: Les sélectines sont une famille de trois protéines qui règlent la capture et le roulement des leucocytes et qui initient la cascade d'adhésion. Elles contrôlent également la migration des leucocytes en réponse à un stimulus physiologique ou inflammatoire pour atteindre un organe cible. Le rôle des sélectines et des leurs ligands est bien connu dans l'adhésion des leucocytes normaux à l'endothélium; en revanche, la nature des ligands des sélectines exprimés par les cellules leucémiques et le myélome multiple est peu connue. La récente découverte que la E- et la P-sélectine sont exprimées par les cellules endothéliales et du stroma de la moelle osseuse, nous a incité à examiner leur rôle dans les interactions des cellules malignes avec leur environnement médullaire. RÉSULTATS: Les analyses ont été conduites sur les cellules du sang ou de la moelle osseuse prélevées à des patients atteints de leucémie aiguë ou de myélome multiple et sur des lignées cellulaires. Les ligands des sélectines qui ont été identifiés sur les blastes leucémiques ou les plasmocytes, sont « P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 » (PSGL-1), CD44, CD43 et l'endoglycan (EGC), ainsi que les saccharides fucosylés sLex et CLA. Nous avons vérifié dans des expériences d'adhésion cellulaire effectuées dans des conditions de flux que ces ligands sont fonctionnels, étant porteurs des sucres mentionnés, et qu'ils sont capables de supporter le roulement cellulaire dépendant des sélectines. De plus, nous avons montré que la liaison de ces ligands génère des signaux intracellulaires favorisant la prolifération et la survie des cellules de myélome. CONCLUSION. Les données présentées ici montrent que la E- et la P- sélectine du microenvironnement médullaire interagissent avec les cellules leucémiques et de myélome multiple, et que ces interactions activent des voies de signalisation contrôlant la prolifération et la survie cellulaire. Ces effets protecteurs sont impliqués dans la persistance de clones cellulaires malins résistant aux traitements et peuvent conduire à la récidive de la maladie. L'inhibition de ces interactions pourrait fournir de nouvelles options thérapeutiques pour le traitement de ces maladies de mauvais pronostic. - BACKGROUND: Selectins are a family of glycoproteins involved in the first steps of the adhesion cascade, tethering and rolling, during which leukocytes sense tissue specific signals and commit the cells to enter in a particular organ or inflammation site. While the role of selectins and their ligands is well established in supporting normal leukocyte adhesion to vascular endothelium, our knowledge of selectin ligands in two hematological malignancies, acute leukemia and multiple myeloma, is incomplete. The recent discovery that E- and P- selectin are also expressed on bone marrow (BM) endothelial and stromal cells, prompted us to investigate a potential role in selectin-mediated interaction of malignant cells with its protective BM microenvironment. RESULTS. Using cells obtained from blood or BM of patients affected by acute myeloid or lymphoblastic leukemia, or multiple myeloma, as well as cell lines, we characterized the expression of selectin ligands on blasts and plasma cells and identified P-selectin glycoprotein ligand-1 (PSGL-1), CD44, CD43 and endoglycan (EGC), as well as sLex/CLA determinants. Rolling assays under flow conditions allowed us to verify that these ligands are functional, i.e. correctly glycosylated and able to support selectin-mediated rolling. Moreover, we demonstrated that these ligands trigger proliferation and pro-survival signals upon engagement on myeloma cells. CONCLUSIONS. Data presented here demonstrate that E- and P-selectin in the BM microenvironment interact with leukemia and myeloma cells, and suggest that they have an impact on proliferation and survival of malignant plasma cells. These protective effects may induce drug resistance in malignant clones, leading to disease relapse. Interfering with these interactions could provide new therapeutic options. - Le corps humain dépend du système immunitaire pour sa protection face aux agressions, notamment des bactéries ou des virus, ou face à une dysfonction de l'organisme. Ce système est composé de plusieurs types cellulaires, regroupés sous le nom de leucocytes, qui participent à son fonctionnement. Ces cellules se développent à partir d'une cellule souche hématopo'iétique commune qui réside dans la moelle osseuse. Comme c'est le cas dans les autres tissus, les cellules du système immunitaire peuvent aussi développer des cancers, appelés tumeurs hématopoïétiques ou tumeurs du sang. Bien que ces maladies puissent être traitées avec succès grâce à de fortes doses de chimiothérapies ou à d'autres moyens comme les greffes, les patients connaissent un fort taux de rechute. La raison de ces récidives est la survie d'une partie des cellules malignes dans la moelle osseuse, où elles reçoivent une protection au traitement par le biais de l'interaction avec d'autres cellules. Les sélectines (E-, P- et L-sélectine) régulent l'interaction des leucocytes avec l'endothélium (la paroi des vaisseaux sanguins), d'autres leucocytes et les plaquettes ; ces interactions surviennent quand les leucocytes atteignent un site d'inflammation ou un organe cible. Dans la moelle osseuse, la E- et la P-sélectine se trouvent sur les cellules de l'endothélium et sur les macrophages, qui sont d'autres leucocytes faisant partie du stroma de la moelle. Elles pourraient être impliquées dans la protection des cellules cancéreuses évoquée plus haut. Les molécules d'adhésion avec lesquelles les sélectines s'associent, autrement dit les ligands des sélectines, sont des glycoprotéines. Ces protéines ont besoin de sucres spécifiques pour acquérir une telle capacité d'adhésion. Dans le cadre de cette thèse, nous avons étudié deux types de cellules extraites du sang et de la moelle osseuse des patients atteints d'une leucémie aiguë (les blastes) ou de myélome multiple (les plasmocytes), et leur capacité à se lier aux sélectines. Nous avons démontré une interaction entre ces cellules malignes et la E- et/ou la P-sélectine, à condition que les ligands soient correctement décorés. De plus, lors que les plasmocytes se lient aux sélectines, une cascade de signaux à l'intérieur des cellules stimule leur prolifération et leur survie. L'ensemble de ces résultats permet l'identification de nouvelles cibles thérapeutiques potentielles de ces hémopathies de mauvais pronostic.

Origin and outcome of multiple pregnancies in Bern, Switzerland, 1995-2006 and the current proposal of the Swiss parliament to revise the Swiss law of reproductive medicine: Switzerland quo vadis?

INTRODUCTION: Infertility treatments are a major source of the increase in multiple pregnancies (MPs). AIMS: The aims of the present study were (1.) to investigate the origin and maternal/neonatal outcomes of MP and (2.) to review the different measures that can be adopted to reduce these serious complications. METHODS: The study included all women with multiple births between 1 January 1995 and 31 December 2006 at the University Hospital of Bern, Switzerland. The outcomes associated with the various origins of MP (natural conception, ovarian stimulation [OS] ‒ in-vitro fertilisation [IVF-ICSI]) were analysed using a multinomial logistic regression model. An analysis of the Swiss law on reproductive medicine and its current proposed revision, as well as a literature review using Pubmed, was carried out. RESULTS: A total of 592 MP were registered, 91% (n = 537) resulted in live births. There was significantly more neonatal/maternal morbidity in MP after OS compared with natural conception and even with the IVF-ICSI group. With a policy of elective single embryo transfer (eSET), twin rates after IVF-ICSI can be reduced to <5% and triplets to <1%. CONCLUSIONS: After OS, more triplets are found and the outcome of MP is worse. MP is known to be associated with morbidity, mortality, and economic and social risks. To counteract these complications (1.) better training for physicians performing OS should be encouraged and (2.) the Swiss law on reproductive medicine needs to be changed, with the introduction of eSET policies. This would lead to a dramatic decrease in neonatal and maternal morbidity/mortality as well as significant cost reductions for the Swiss healthcare system.

Achievement of at least very good partial response is a simple and robust prognostic factor in patients with multiple myeloma treated with high-dose therapy: long-term analysis of the IFM 99-02 and 99-04 Trials.

PURPOSE: The prognostic impact of complete response (CR) achievement in multiple myeloma (MM) has been shown mostly in the context of autologous stem-cell transplantation. Other levels of response have been defined because, even with high-dose therapy, CR is a relatively rare event. The purpose of this study was to analyze the prognostic impact of very good partial response (VGPR) in patients treated with high-dose therapy. PATIENTS AND METHODS: All patients were included in the Intergroupe Francophone du Myelome 99-02 and 99-04 trials and treated with vincristine, doxorubicin, and dexamethasone (VAD) induction therapy followed by double autologous stem-cell transplantation (ASCT). Best post-ASCT response assessment was available for 802 patients. RESULTS: With a median follow-up of 67 months, median event-free survival (EFS) and 5-year EFS were 42 months and 34%, respectively, for 405 patients who achieved at least VGPR after ASCT versus 32 months and 26% in 288 patients who achieved only partial remission (P = .005). Five-year overall survival (OS) was significantly superior in patients achieving at least VGPR (74% v 61% P = .0017). In multivariate analysis, achievement of less than VGPR was an independent factor predicting shorter EFS and OS. Response to VAD had no impact on EFS and OS. The impact of VGPR achievement on EFS and OS was significant in patients with International Staging System stages 2 to 3 and for patients with poor-risk cytogenetics t(4;14) or del(17p). CONCLUSION: In the context of ASCT, achievement of at least VGPR is a simple prognostic factor that has importance in intermediate and high-risk MM and can be informative in more patients than CR.

Regression analysis of spatial data.

Many of the most interesting questions ecologists ask lead to analyses of spatial data. Yet, perhaps confused by the large number of statistical models and fitting methods available, many ecologists seem to believe this is best left to specialists. Here, we describe the issues that need consideration when analysing spatial data and illustrate these using simulation studies. Our comparative analysis involves using methods including generalized least squares, spatial filters, wavelet revised models, conditional autoregressive models and generalized additive mixed models to estimate regression coefficients from synthetic but realistic data sets, including some which violate standard regression assumptions. We assess the performance of each method using two measures and using statistical error rates for model selection. Methods that performed well included generalized least squares family of models and a Bayesian implementation of the conditional auto-regressive model. Ordinary least squares also performed adequately in the absence of model selection, but had poorly controlled Type I error rates and so did not show the improvements in performance under model selection when using the above methods. Removing large-scale spatial trends in the response led to poor performance. These are empirical results; hence extrapolation of these findings to other situations should be performed cautiously. Nevertheless, our simulation-based approach provides much stronger evidence for comparative analysis than assessments based on single or small numbers of data sets, and should be considered a necessary foundation for statements of this type in future.

Global phylogenomic analysis of nonencapsulated Streptococcus pneumoniae reveals a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages.

The surrounding capsule of Streptococcus pneumoniae has been identified as a major virulence factor and is targeted by pneumococcal conjugate vaccines (PCV). However, nonencapsulated S. pneumoniae (non-Ec-Sp) have also been isolated globally, mainly in carriage studies. It is unknown if non-Ec-Sp evolve sporadically, if they have high antibiotic nonsusceptiblity rates and a unique, specific gene content. Here, whole-genome sequencing of 131 non-Ec-Sp isolates sourced from 17 different locations around the world was performed. Results revealed a deep-branching classic lineage that is distinct from multiple sporadic lineages. The sporadic lineages clustered with a previously sequenced, global collection of encapsulated S. pneumoniae (Ec-Sp) isolates while the classic lineage is comprised mainly of the frequently identified multilocus sequences types (STs) ST344 (n = 39) and ST448 (n = 40). All ST344 and nine ST448 isolates had high nonsusceptiblity rates to β-lactams and other antimicrobials. Analysis of the accessory genome reveals that the classic non-Ec-Sp contained an increased number of mobile elements, than Ec-Sp and sporadic non-Ec-Sp. Performing adherence assays to human epithelial cells for selected classic and sporadic non-Ec-Sp revealed that the presence of a integrative conjugative element (ICE) results in increased adherence to human epithelial cells (P = 0.005). In contrast, sporadic non-Ec-Sp lacking the ICE had greater growth in vitro possibly resulting in improved fitness. In conclusion, non-Ec-Sp isolates from the classic lineage have evolved separately. They have spread globally, are well adapted to nasopharyngeal carriage and are able to coexist with Ec-Sp. Due to continued use of PCV, non-Ec-Sp may become more prevalent.

Advanced geostatistical and machine-learning models for spatial data analysis of radioactively contaminated regions

Radioactive soil-contamination mapping and risk assessment is a vital issue for decision makers. Traditional approaches for mapping the spatial concentration of radionuclides employ various regression-based models, which usually provide a single-value prediction realization accompanied (in some cases) by estimation error. Such approaches do not provide the capability for rigorous uncertainty quantification or probabilistic mapping. Machine learning is a recent and fast-developing approach based on learning patterns and information from data. Artificial neural networks for prediction mapping have been especially powerful in combination with spatial statistics. A data-driven approach provides the opportunity to integrate additional relevant information about spatial phenomena into a prediction model for more accurate spatial estimates and associated uncertainty. Machine-learning algorithms can also be used for a wider spectrum of problems than before: classification, probability density estimation, and so forth. Stochastic simulations are used to model spatial variability and uncertainty. Unlike regression models, they provide multiple realizations of a particular spatial pattern that allow uncertainty and risk quantification. This paper reviews the most recent methods of spatial data analysis, prediction, and risk mapping, based on machine learning and stochastic simulations in comparison with more traditional regression models. The radioactive fallout from the Chernobyl Nuclear Power Plant accident is used to illustrate the application of the models for prediction and classification problems. This fallout is a unique case study that provides the challenging task of analyzing huge amounts of data ('hard' direct measurements, as well as supplementary information and expert estimates) and solving particular decision-oriented problems.

Pseudoachondroplasia and multiple epiphyseal dysplasia: a 7-year comprehensive analysis of the known disease genes identify novel and recurrent mutations and provides an accurate assessment of their relative contribution.

Pseudoachondroplasia (PSACH) and multiple epiphyseal dysplasia (MED) are relatively common skeletal dysplasias resulting in short-limbed dwarfism, joint pain, and stiffness. PSACH and the largest proportion of autosomal dominant MED (AD-MED) results from mutations in cartilage oligomeric matrix protein (COMP); however, AD-MED is genetically heterogenous and can also result from mutations in matrilin-3 (MATN3) and type IX collagen (COL9A1, COL9A2, and COL9A3). In contrast, autosomal recessive MED (rMED) appears to result exclusively from mutations in sulphate transporter solute carrier family 26 (SLC26A2). The diagnosis of PSACH and MED can be difficult for the nonexpert due to various complications and similarities with other related diseases and often mutation analysis is requested to either confirm or exclude the diagnosis. Since 2003, the European Skeletal Dysplasia Network (ESDN) has used an on-line review system to efficiently diagnose cases referred to the network prior to mutation analysis. In this study, we present the molecular findings in 130 patients referred to ESDN, which includes the identification of novel and recurrent mutations in over 100 patients. Furthermore, this study provides the first indication of the relative contribution of each gene and confirms that they account for the majority of PSACH and MED.

Preoperative nutritional screening by the specialist instead of the nutritional risk score might prevent excess nutrition: a multivariate analysis of nutritional risk factors.

BACKGROUND: The aim of the current study was to assess whether widely used nutritional parameters are correlated with the nutritional risk score (NRS-2002) to identify postoperative morbidity and to evaluate the role of nutritionists in nutritional assessment. METHODS: A randomized trial on preoperative nutritional interventions (NCT00512213) provided the study cohort of 152 patients at nutritional risk (NRS-2002 ≥3) with a comprehensive phenotyping including diverse nutritional parameters (n=17), elaborated by nutritional specialists, and potential demographic and surgical (n=5) confounders. Risk factors for overall, severe (Dindo-Clavien 3-5) and infectious complications were identified by univariate analysis; parameters with P<0.20 were then entered in a multiple logistic regression model. RESULTS: Final analysis included 140 patients with complete datasets. Of these, 61 patients (43.6%) were overweight, and 72 patients (51.4%) experienced at least one complication of any degree of severity. Univariate analysis identified a correlation between few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=4.94; 95% CI: 1.47-16.56, p=0.01) and overall complications. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less overall complications compared to the not malnourished (OR=0.47; 95% CI: 0.22-0.97, p=0.043). Severe postoperative complications occurred more often in patients with low lean body mass (OR=1.06; 95% CI: 1-1.12, p=0.028). Few (≤3) active co-morbidities (OR=8.8; 95% CI: 1.12-68.99, p=0.008) were related with postoperative infections. Patients screened as being malnourished by nutritional specialists presented less infectious complications (OR=0.28; 95% CI: 0.1-0.78), p=0.014) as compared to the not malnourished. Multivariate analysis identified few co-morbidities (OR=6.33; 95% CI: 1.75-22.84, p=0.005), low weight loss (OR=1.08; 95% CI: 1.02-1.14, p=0.006) and low hemoglobin concentration (OR=2.84; 95% CI: 1.22-6.59, p=0.021) as independent risk factors for overall postoperative complications. Compliance with nutritional supplements (OR=0.37; 95% CI: 0.14-0.97, p=0.041) and supplementation of malnourished patients as assessed by nutritional specialists (OR=0.24; 95% CI: 0.08-0.69, p=0.009) were independently associated with decreased infectious complications. CONCLUSIONS: Nutritional support based upon NRS-2002 screening might result in overnutrition, with potentially deleterious clinical consequences. We emphasize the importance of detailed assessment of the nutritional status by a dedicated specialist before deciding on early nutritional intervention for patients with an initial NRS-2002 score of ≥3.

Mediterranean diet and risk of endometrial cancer: a pooled analysis of three italian case-control studies.

BACKGROUND: Some components of the Mediterranean diet have favourable effects on endometrial cancer, and the Mediterranean diet as a whole has been shown to have a beneficial role on various neoplasms. METHODS: We analysed this issue pooling data from three case-control studies carried out between 1983 and 2006 in various Italian areas and in the Swiss Canton of Vaud. Cases were 1411 women with incident, histologically confirmed endometrial cancer, and controls were 3668 patients in hospital for acute diseases. We measured the adherence to the Mediterranean diet using a Mediterranean Diet Score (MDS), based on the nine dietary components characteristics of this diet, that is, high intake of vegetables, fruits/nuts, cereals, legumes, fish; low intake of dairy products and meat; high monounsaturated to saturated fatty acid ratio; and moderate alcohol intake. We estimated the odds ratios (OR) and the corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CI) for increasing levels of the MDS (varying from 0, no adherence, to 9, maximum adherence) using multiple logistic regression models, adjusted for major confounding factors. RESULTS: The adjusted OR for a 6-9 components of the MDS (high adherence) compared with 0-3 (low adherence) was 0.43 (95% CI 0.34-0.56). The OR for an increment of one component of MDS diet was 0.84 (95% CI 0.80-0.88). The association was consistent in strata of various covariates, although somewhat stronger in older women, in never oral contraceptive users and in hormone-replacement therapy users. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides evidence for a beneficial role of the Mediterranean diet on endometrial cancer risk, suggesting a favourable effect of a combination of foods rich in antioxidants, fibres, phytochemicals, and unsaturated fatty acids.

Glutamine and antioxidants in the critically ill patient: a post hoc analysis of a large-scale randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: The recent large randomized controlled trial of glutamine and antioxidant supplementation suggested that high-dose glutamine is associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients with multiorgan failure. The objectives of the present analyses were to reevaluate the effect of supplementation after controlling for baseline covariates and to identify potentially important subgroup effects. MATERIALS AND METHODS: This study was a post hoc analysis of a prospective factorial 2 × 2 randomized trial conducted in 40 intensive care units in North America and Europe. In total, 1223 mechanically ventilated adult patients with multiorgan failure were randomized to receive glutamine, antioxidants, both glutamine and antioxidants, or placebo administered separate from artificial nutrition. We compared each of the 3 active treatment arms (glutamine alone, antioxidants alone, and glutamine + antioxidants) with placebo on 28-day mortality. Post hoc, treatment effects were examined within subgroups defined by baseline patient characteristics. Logistic regression was used to estimate treatment effects within subgroups after adjustment for baseline covariates and to identify treatment-by-subgroup interactions (effect modification). RESULTS: The 28-day mortality rates in the placebo, glutamine, antioxidant, and combination arms were 25%, 32%, 29%, and 33%, respectively. After adjusting for prespecified baseline covariates, the adjusted odds ratio of 28-day mortality vs placebo was 1.5 (95% confidence interval, 1.0-2.1, P = .05), 1.2 (0.8-1.8, P = .40), and 1.4 (0.9-2.0, P = .09) for glutamine, antioxidant, and glutamine plus antioxidant arms, respectively. In the post hoc subgroup analysis, both glutamine and antioxidants appeared most harmful in patients with baseline renal dysfunction. No subgroups suggested reduced mortality with supplements. CONCLUSIONS: After adjustment for baseline covariates, early provision of high-dose glutamine administered separately from artificial nutrition was not beneficial and may be associated with increased mortality in critically ill patients with multiorgan failure. For both glutamine and antioxidants, the greatest potential for harm was observed in patients with multiorgan failure that included renal dysfunction upon study enrollment.

Systematic analysis of factors associated with progression and regression of ulcerative colitis in 918 patients.

BACKGROUND: Studies that systematically assess change in ulcerative colitis (UC) extent over time in adult patients are scarce. AIM: To assess changes in disease extent over time and to evaluate clinical parameters associated with this change. METHODS: Data from the Swiss IBD cohort study were analysed. We used logistic regression modelling to identify factors associated with a change in disease extent. RESULTS: A total of 918 UC patients (45.3% females) were included. At diagnosis, UC patients presented with the following disease extent: proctitis [199 patients (21.7%)], left-sided colitis [338 patients (36.8%)] and extensive colitis/pancolitis [381 (41.5%)]. During a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, progression and regression was documented in 145 patients (15.8%) and 149 patients (16.2%) respectively. In addition, 624 patients (68.0%) had a stable disease extent. The following factors were identified to be associated with disease progression: treatment with systemic glucocorticoids [odds ratio (OR) 1.704, P = 0.025] and calcineurin inhibitors (OR: 2.716, P = 0.005). No specific factors were found to be associated with disease regression. CONCLUSIONS: Over a median disease duration of 9 [4-16] years, about two-thirds of UC patients maintained the initial disease extent; the remaining one-third had experienced either progression or regression of the disease extent.

Prediction of multiple infections after severe burn trauma: a prospective cohort study.

OBJECTIVE: To develop predictive models for early triage of burn patients based on hypersusceptibility to repeated infections. BACKGROUND: Infection remains a major cause of mortality and morbidity after severe trauma, demanding new strategies to combat infections. Models for infection prediction are lacking. METHODS: Secondary analysis of 459 burn patients (≥16 years old) with 20% or more total body surface area burns recruited from 6 US burn centers. We compared blood transcriptomes with a 180-hour cutoff on the injury-to-transcriptome interval of 47 patients (≤1 infection episode) to those of 66 hypersusceptible patients [multiple (≥2) infection episodes (MIE)]. We used LASSO regression to select biomarkers and multivariate logistic regression to built models, accuracy of which were assessed by area under receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) and cross-validation. RESULTS: Three predictive models were developed using covariates of (1) clinical characteristics; (2) expression profiles of 14 genomic probes; (3) combining (1) and (2). The genomic and clinical models were highly predictive of MIE status [AUROCGenomic = 0.946 (95% CI: 0.906-0.986); AUROCClinical = 0.864 (CI: 0.794-0.933); AUROCGenomic/AUROCClinical P = 0.044]. Combined model has an increased AUROCCombined of 0.967 (CI: 0.940-0.993) compared with the individual models (AUROCCombined/AUROCClinical P = 0.0069). Hypersusceptible patients show early alterations in immune-related signaling pathways, epigenetic modulation, and chromatin remodeling. CONCLUSIONS: Early triage of burn patients more susceptible to infections can be made using clinical characteristics and/or genomic signatures. Genomic signature suggests new insights into the pathophysiology of hypersusceptibility to infection may lead to novel potential therapeutic or prophylactic targets.

Gamma Knife Surgery versus Linac for Brain Metastasis: Which Technique for Which Patient? Analysis of an Historical Cohort of 63 Consecutive Patients Harboring 130 Lesions

Objectives: We present the retrospective analysis of a single-institution experience for radiosurgery (RS) in brain metastasis (BM) with Gamma Knife (GK) and Linac. Methods: From July 2010 to July 2012, 28 patients (with 83 lesions) had RS with GK and 35 patients (with 47 lesions) with Linac. The primary outcome was the local progression-free survival (LPFS). The secondary outcome was the overall survival (OS). Apart a standard statistical analysis, we included a Cox regression model with shared frailty, to modulate the within-patient correlation (preliminary evaluation showed a significant frailty effect, meaning that the correlation within patient could be ignored). Results: The mean follow-up period was 11.7 months (median 7.9, 1.7-22.7) for GK and 18.1 (median 17, 7.5-28.7) for Linac. The median number of lesions per patient was 2.5 (1-9) in GK compared with 1 (1-3) in Linac. There were more radioresistant lesions (melanoma) and more lesions located in functional areas for the GK group. The median dose was 24 Gy (GK) compared with 20 Gy (Linac). The LPFS actuarial rate was as follows: for GK at 3, 6, 9, 12, and 17 months: 96.96, 96.96, 96.96, 88.1, and 81.5%, and remained stable till 32 months; for Linac at 3, 6, 12, 17, 24, and 33 months, it was 91.5, 91.5, 91.5, 79.9, 55.5, and 17.1%, respectively (p = 0.03, chi-square test). After the Cox regression analysis with shared frailty, the p-value was not statistically significant between groups. The median overall survival was 9.7 months for GK and 23.6 months for Linac group. Uni- and multivariate analysis showed a lower GPA score and noncontrolled systemic status were associated with lower OS. Cox regression analysis adjusting for these two parameters showed comparable OS rate. Conclusions: In this comparative report between GK and Linac, preliminary analysis showed that more difficult cases are treated by GK, with patients harboring more lesions, radioresistant tumors, and highly functional located. The groups look, in this sense, very heterogeneous at baseline. After a Cox frailty model, the LPFS rates seemed very similar (p < 0.05). The OS was similar, after adjusting for systemic status and GPA score (p < 0.05). The technical reasons for choosing GK instead of Linac were the anatomical location related to highly functional areas, histology, technical limitations of Linac movements, especially lower posterior fossa locations, or closeness of multiple lesions to highly functional areas optimal dosimetry with Linac