Association of socioeconomic position with health behaviors and mortality

CONTEXT: Previous studies may have underestimated the contribution of health behaviors to social inequalities in mortality because health behaviors were assessed only at the baseline of the study. OBJECTIVE: To examine the role of health behaviors in the association between socioeconomic position and mortality and compare whether their contribution differs when assessed at only 1 point in time with that assessed longitudinally through the follow-up period. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: Established in 1985, the British Whitehall II longitudinal cohort study includes 10 308 civil servants, aged 35 to 55 years, living in London, England. Analyses are based on 9590 men and women followed up for mortality until April 30, 2009. Socioeconomic position was derived from civil service employment grade (high, intermediate, and low) at baseline. Smoking, alcohol consumption, diet, and physical activity were assessed 4 times during the follow-up period. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: All-cause and cause-specific mortality. RESULTS: A total of 654 participants died during the follow-up period. In the analyses adjusted for sex and year of birth, those with the lowest socioeconomic position had 1.60 times higher risk of death from all causes than those with the highest socioeconomic position (a rate difference of 1.94/1000 person-years). This association was attenuated by 42% (95% confidence interval [CI], 21%-94%) when health behaviors assessed at baseline were entered into the model and by 72% (95% CI, 42%-154%) when they were entered as time-dependent covariates. The corresponding attenuations were 29% (95% CI, 11%-54%) and 45% (95% CI, 24%-79%) for cardiovascular mortality and 61% (95% CI, 16%-425%) and 94% (95% CI, 35%-595%) for noncancer and noncardiovascular mortality. The difference between the baseline only and repeated assessments of health behaviors was mostly due to an increased explanatory power of diet (from 7% to 17% for all-cause mortality, respectively), physical activity (from 5% to 21% for all-cause mortality), and alcohol consumption (from 3% to 12% for all-cause mortality). The role of smoking, the strongest mediator in these analyses, did not change when using baseline or repeat assessments (from 32% to 35% for all-cause mortality). CONCLUSION: In a civil service population in London, England, there was an association between socioeconomic position and mortality that was substantially accounted for by adjustment for health behaviors, particularly when the behaviors were assessed repeatedly.

Association between growth and blood pressure during the life course in children and adolescents

Background: Little is known on the relative importance of growth at different periods between birth and adolescence on blood pressure (BP). Objective: To assess the association between birth weight, change in body weight (growth) and BP across the entire span of childhood and adolescence. Methods: School-based surveys were conducted annually between 1998 and 2006 among all children in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th, and 10th year of compulsory school) in the Seychelles, Indian Ocean. Height and weight and BP were measured. Three cohorts of children examined twice were analyzed: 1606 children surveyed at age 5.5 and 9.1, 2557 at age 9.2 and 12.5, and 2065 at age 12.5 and 15.5, respectively. Weights at birth and at one year were extracted from medical files. Weights were expressed as Z-scores and growth was defined as a change in weight Z-scores (corresponding to weight centile crossing). The association between BP (at age 5.5, 9.2, 12.5, and 15.5) and weight at different times was assessed by linear regression. Using results of regression models of BP on all successive weights, life course plots were drawn by plotting regression coefficients against age at which weight was measured. The figure shows a life course plot of systolic BP in boys aged 15.5. Results: Without adjustment for current weight (at the time of BP measurement), birth weight was not associated with current BP, irrespective of age, excepted for girls at age 15.5 for whom a modest positive association was found. When adjusted for current weight, birth weight was negatively and modestly associated with current BP. BP was strongly associated with current weight, irrespective of age. Life course plots showed that BP was strongly associated with growth during the few preceding years but not with growth during earlier years, except for growth during the first year of life which tended to be associated with systolic BP. Conclusions: Our findings suggest that BP during childhood and adolescence is mainly determined by current body weight and recent growth.

Long-term miR-669a therapy alleviates chronic dilated cardiomyopathy in dystrophic mice.

BACKGROUND: Dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) is a leading cause of chronic morbidity and mortality in muscular dystrophy (MD) patients. Current pharmacological treatments are not yet able to counteract chronic myocardial wastage, thus novel therapies are being intensely explored. MicroRNAs have been implicated as fine regulators of cardiomyopathic progression. Previously, miR-669a downregulation has been linked to the severe DCM progression displayed by Sgcb-null dystrophic mice. However, the impact of long-term overexpression of miR-669a on muscle structure and functionality of the dystrophic heart is yet unknown. METHODS AND RESULTS: Here, we demonstrate that intraventricular delivery of adeno-associated viral (AAV) vectors induces long-term (18 months) miR-669a overexpression and improves survival of Sgcb-null mice. Treated hearts display significant decrease in hypertrophic remodeling, fibrosis, and cardiomyocyte apoptosis. Moreover, miR-669a treatment increases sarcomere organization, reduces ventricular atrial natriuretic peptide (ANP) levels, and ameliorates gene/miRNA profile of DCM markers. Furthermore, long-term miR-669a overexpression significantly reduces adverse remodeling and enhances systolic fractional shortening of the left ventricle in treated dystrophic mice, without significant detrimental consequences on skeletal muscle wastage. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provide the first evidence of long-term beneficial impact of AAV-mediated miRNA therapy in a transgenic model of severe, chronic MD-associated DCM.

Elevated blood pressure prevalence in children did not follow the increase in overweight: results from a school-based study in a rapidly developing country, 1998-2006

Background: Blood pressure (BP) is strongly associated with body weight and there is concern that the pediatric overweight epidemic could lead to an increase in children's mean BP. Objectives: We analyzed BP trends from 1998 to 2006 among children of the Seychelles, a rapidly developing middle-income country in Africa. Methods: Serial school-based surveys of weight, height and BP were conducted yearly between 1998-2006 among all students of the country in four school grades (kindergarten, 4th, 7th and 10th years of compulsory school). We used the CDC criteria to define "overweight" (BMI _95th sex-, and age-specific percentile) and the NHBPEP criteria for "elevated BP" (BP _95th sex-, age-, and height specific percentile). Methods for height, weight, and BP measurements were identical over the study period. The trends in mean BMI and mean systolic/diastolic BP were assessed with linear regression. Results: 27,703 children aged 4-18 years (participation rate: 79%) contributed 43,927 observations on weight, height, and BP. The prevalence of overweight increased from 5.1% in 1998-2000 to 8.1% in 2004-2006 among boys, and from 6.1% to 9.1% among girls, respectively. The prevalence of elevated BP was 8.4% in 1998-2000 and 6.9% in 2004-2006 among boys; 9.8% and 7.8% among girls, respectively. Over the 9-years study period, age-adjusted body mass index (BMI) increased by 0.078 kg/m2/year in boys and by 0.083 kg/m2/year in girls (both sexes, P_0.001). Age- and height-adjusted systolic BP decreased by -0.37 mmHg/year in boys and by -0.34 mmHg/year in girls (both sexes, P_0.001). Diastolic BP did not change in boys (-0.02 mmHg/year, P: 0.40) and slightly increased in girls (0.07 mmHg/year, P: 0.003). These trend estimates were altered modestly upon further adjustment for BMI or if analyses were based on median rather than mean values. Conclusion: Although body weight increased markedly between 1998 and 2006 in this population, systolic BP decreased and diastolic BP changed only marginally. This suggests that population increases in body weight are not necessarily associated with corresponding rises in BP in children.

Serum Leptin Concentration, Body Mass Index and Incident Heart Failure: The Health, Aging, and Body Composition Study

Background: Leptin is produced primarily by adipocytes. Although originally associated with the central regulation of satiety and energy metabolism, increasing evidence indicates that leptin may be an important factor for congestive heart faire (CHF). In the study, we aimed to test the hypothesis that leptin may influence CHF pathophysiology via a pathway of increasing body mass index (BMI). Methods: We studied 2,389 elderly participants aged 70 and older (M; 1161, F: 1228) without CHF and with serum leptin measures at the Health Aging, and Body Composition study. We analyzed the association between serum leptin level and risk of incident CHF using Cox hazard proportional regression models. Elevated leptin level was defined as more than the highest quartile (Q4) of leptin distribution in the total sample for each gender. Adjusted-covariates included demographic, behavior, lipid and inflammation variables (partially-adjusted models), and further included BMI (fully-adjusted models). Results: In a mean 9-year follow-up, 316 participants (13.2%) developed CHF. The partially-adjusted models indicated that men and women with elevated serum leptin levels (>=9.89 ng/ml in men and >=25 ng/ml in women) had significantly higher risks of developing CHF than those with leptin level of less than Q4. The adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) for incident CHF was 1.49 (1.04 -2.13) in men and 1.71 (1.12 -2.58) in women. However, these associations became non-significant after adjustment for including BMI for each gender. The fully-adjusted hazard ratios (95%CI) were 1.43 (0.94 -2.18) in men and 1.24 (0.77-1.99) in women. Conclusion: Subjects with elevated leptin levels have a higher risk of CHF. The study supports the hypothesis that the influence of leptin level on risk of CHF may be through a pathway related to increasing BMI.

Traitement pharmacologique de la schizophrénie: évaluation comparative de la qualité des recommandations de pratique clinique [Comparative evaluation of clinical practice guidelines for the treatment of schizophrenia]

INTRODUCTION: Many clinical practice guidelines (CPG) have been published in reply to the development of the concept of "evidence-based medicine" (EBM) and as a solution to the difficulty of synthesizing and selecting relevant medical literature. Taking into account the expansion of new CPG, the question of choice arises: which CPG to consider in a given clinical situation? It is of primary importance to evaluate the quality of the CPG, but until recently, there has been no standardized tool of evaluation or comparison of the quality of the CPG. An instrument of evaluation of the quality of the CPG, called "AGREE" for appraisal of guidelines for research and evaluation was validated in 2002. AIM OF THE STUDY: The six principal CPG concerning the treatment of schizophrenia are compared with the help of the "AGREE" instrument: (1) "the Agence nationale pour le développement de l'évaluation médicale (ANDEM) recommendations"; (2) "The American Psychiatric Association (APA) practice guideline for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia"; (3) "The quick reference guide of APA practice guideline for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia"; (4) "The schizophrenia patient outcomes research team (PORT) treatment recommendations"; (5) "The Texas medication algorithm project (T-MAP)" and (6) "The expert consensus guideline for the treatment of schizophrenia". RESULTS: The results of our study were then compared with those of a similar investigation published in 2005, structured on 24 CPG tackling the treatment of schizophrenia. The "AGREE" tool was also used by two investigators in their study. In general, the scores of the two studies differed little and the two global evaluations of the CPG converged; however, each of the six CPG is perfectible. DISCUSSION: The rigour of elaboration of the six CPG was in general average. The consideration of the opinion of potential users was incomplete, and an effort made in the presentation of the recommendations would facilitate their clinical use. Moreover, there was little consideration by the authors regarding the applicability of the recommendations. CONCLUSION: Globally, two CPG are considered as strongly recommended: "the quick reference guide of the APA practice guideline for the treatment of patients with schizophrenia" and "the T-MAP".

Facteurs endogènes et exogènes influençant l'écriture manuelle chez l'enfant

Introduction L'écriture manuelle fluide et automatisée constitue, avec la lecture, les fondements au développement des compétences scolaires. En effet, l'enfant peut développer le langage écrit avec l'acquisition de l'écriture, il a besoin d'une écriture manuelle automatisée lors d'évaluations scolaires écrites. De plus, la sollicitation de l'écriture manuelle augmente au cours de la scolarité, que ce soit au niveau de l'endurance, de la vitesse ou de la qualité. L'acquisition de l'écriture requiert des processus cognitifs, linguistiques et perceptivomoteurs, définis en tant que facteurs internes ou endogènes (Beeson et al., 2003) et résulte d'une démarche d'enseignement et d'un processus d'apprentissage constituant des facteurs externes ou exogènes. Les perturbations de l'acquisition de l'écriture sont nommées de différentes manières dans la littérature scientifique. Les chercheurs anglo-saxons convoquent la notion de faible écriture manuelle (poor handwriting), de troubles grapho-moteurs ou de difficultés d'écriture (Weintraub & Graham, 2000 ; Jongmans, Smits-Engelsman, & Schoemaker, 2003 ; Volman, van Schendel, &Jongmans, 2006) qui se caractérisent par une absence de régularité du tracé et/ ou de l'espace entre les mots, par des lettres ambiguës (Rosenblum, Weiss, & Parush, 2006). Les auteurs francophones, le plus souvent de formation médicale (Gubbay & de Klerk, 1995 ; Mazeau, 2005), utilisent plus fréquemment le diagnostic de dysgraphie qui renvoie à des difficultés d'assemblage de ronds et de traits pour former une lettre perturbant ainsi l'apprentissage de l'écriture (Mazeau, 2005). Selon Mazeau, la dysgraphie fait partie des troubles d'apprentissage. Les conséquences d'une faible écriture manuelle sont multiples. Si l'écriture n'est pas automatisée, l'enfant est placé dans une situation de double tâche nécessitant une attention focalisée à la fois sur l'acte d'écrire et sur le raisonnement nécessaire pour réaliser les exigences d'une tâche scolaire (Berningér et al., 1997). Si l'enfant se concentre sur la formation des lettres et le contrôle des mouvements, le raisonnement nécessaire à l'application de règles de grammaire et d'orthographe est perturbé tout comme la qualité des idées lors d'une composition. L'enfant présentant une écriture lente ne parviendra pas à finaliser son travail dans les situations de tests. Les difficultés d'écriture manuelle constituent un facteur de prédiction des troubles d'apprentissage (Harvey & Henderson, 1997 ; Simner, 1982) et elles sont fréquemment citées parmi les causes de la littératie. Car, comme le relèvent Berninger, Mizokawa et Bragg (1991), l'enfant présentant des difficultés d'écriture manuelle aura tendance à éviter toute activité d'écriture renforçant ainsi l'écart avec ses pairs dans ce domaine. Si ces comportements d'évitement se situent dans la période d'apprentissage de l'écriture, ils perturberont la mémorisation des lettres. En effet, la mémorisation des lettres est meilleure lorsque l'apprentissage se fait en situation d'écriture manuelle qu'en situation de lecture uniquement (Longcamp, Boucard, Guilhodes, & Velay, 2006). Par ailleurs, les épreuves dont la qualité de l'écriture est faible font l'objet d'évaluation moins favorable que celles dont l'écriture est plus facilement lisible. Les enseignants/es seraient alors moins persévérants/es dans leur lecture et plus sévères lors de la notation d'une rédaction. Ils, elles développeraient une faible perception des compétences en composition lorsqu'ils, elles sont confrontés/es à une épreuve dont la qualité est peu fluide et peu lisible (Alston & Taylor, 1987). L'identification des difficultés d'écriture peut se fairé de différentes manières (Kozatiek & Powell, 2002 ; Simons & Thijs, 2006 ). D'une part, l'appréciation de la qualité et de la vitesse d'écriture manuelle peut être subjective avec l'avis de l'enseignant et, d'autre part, objective avec l'utilisation de tests standardisés comportant des critères permettant de mesurer la vitesse et la qualité de l'écriture. Les conditions de passation des évaluations peuvent varier (copie, dictée ou composition) et influencer la vitesse et la qualité de l'écriture. La vitesse est moindre et la taille des lettres est inférieure en situation de composition qu'en situation de copie tandis que la régularité du tracé est plus stable en situation de copie que lors d'une composition. Si le dépistage et l'identification des difficultés d'écriture contribuent à la prévention de risques ultérieurs tels que de faibles compétence en littératie, la compréhension des causes de ces difficultés permettra le développement de moyens de remédiation de ces difficultés. Dans la littérature scientifique traitant de cette problématique, des facteurs endogènes ou exogènes peuvent être identifiés. Les facteurs endogènes regroupent autant la maturation développementale et le genre que les fonctions sensorimotrices telles que les dextérités manuelle et digitale, l'intégration visuomotrice, la visuoperception, l'attention visuelle et les fonctions cognitives. En outre, les troubles du développement tels qu'un trouble du langage, un déficit de l'attention ou un Trouble de l'acquisition de la coordination (TAC) (DSM-IV) (American Psychiatric Association, 2003) peuvent perturber l'acquisition de l'écriture. Les facteurs exogènes correspondent soit aux facteurs environnementaux tels que la position de l'enfant ou l'outil scripteur utilisé, soit aux modalités et à la durée de l'enseignement de l'écriture. En effet, la durée de l'enseignement de l'écriture et les modalités pédagogiques contribuent à marquer les différences interindividuelles pour la qualité et pour la vitesse de l'écriture. Actuellement, l'enseignement de l'écriture est, dans la plupart des programmes scolaires, intégré dans le cadre d'autres cours et ne fait pas l'objet d'un enseignement spécifique. Cette pratique entraîné un auto-apprentissage de la part de l'enfant et, par conséquent, un apprentissage implicite de l'écriture alors que les bénéfices d'un enseignement explicite ont été largement mis en évidence par Willingham et Goedert-Eschmann (1999). En effet, ces auteurs ont montré qu'un enseignement explicite favorise l'acquisition, la performance et le transfert d'apprentissage de manière plus importante que l'apprentissage implicite. Paradoxalement, alors que l'enseignement de l'écriture tend à être délaissé dans les programmes scolaires, les études mettant en évidence l'efficacité de l'enseignement de l'écriture (Berninger et al., 1997 ; Jongmans, Linthorst-Bakker, Westenberg & SmitsEngelsman et al., 2003 ; Schoemaker, Niemeijer, Reynders, & Smits-Engelsman , 2003) sont nombreuses. Leurs résultats montrent que l'enseignement d'une seule catégorie d'écriture (liée ou scripte) est plus efficace que l'enseignement de deux catégories d'écriture scripte en début d'apprentissage et écriture liée dans un second temps. Un enseignement régulier et intensif consacré à l'écriture au début de la scolarité va permettre une acquisition plus rapide de l'écriture et de la lecture (Graham & Weintraub, 1996 ; Denton, Cope & Moser, 2006). Selon Berninger, Abbot, Abbot, Graham et Richards (2002), la lecture et l'écriture devraient faire l'objet d'un enseignement coordonné et harmonisé. L'enseignement de l'écriture favorisant les liens avec les contextes d'utilisation de l'écriture montre une efficacité plus grande que lorsqu'il est déconnecté de son contexte (Denton, Cope, & Moser, 2006). L'enjeu d'une automatisation de l'écriture de qualité est important et relève d'une priorité afin de permettre aux enfants de développer de manière optimale leurs compétences académiques. Lorsque des troubles d'écriture sont constatés, l'identification des causes liées à ces difficultés tout comme une prise en charge spécifique faciliteront l'acquisition de cette compétence fondamentale (Berninger et al., 1997). Dans ces perspectives, cette thèse vise à identifier les facteurs endogènes et les facteurs exogènes intervenant dans l'écriture manuelle, que ce soit au niveau de la qualité ou de la vitesse de l'écriture. Au niveau théorique, elle développe l'étai des connaissances dans le domaine de l'écriture en neuropsychologie, en neurosciences et en sciences du mouvement humain. Elle présente, dans une perspective développementale, les modèles de l'apprentissage de l'écriture ainsi que les étapes d'acquisition de l'écriture tout en considérant les différences liées au genre. Ensuite, la description des difficultés d'écriture manuelle précède les moyens d'évaluation de l'écriture. Un chapitre est consacré aux fonctions perceptivomotrices et cognitives influençant l'écriture. Puis, comme les difficultés d'acquisition de l'écriture manuelle font partie du TAC, ce trouble est développé dans le chapitre 5. Enfin, les facteurs exogènes sont présentés dans le chapitre 6, ils comprennent les conditions environnementales (position de l'enfant, types de papiers, types d'outils scripteurs) ainsi que les dimensions d'un programme d'enseignement de l'écriture manuelle. Les effets des programmes de remédiation ou d'enseignement intensif de l'écriture sont traités en dernière partie du chapitre 6. Cette thèse est composée d'une partie de recherche fondamentale et d'une partie de recherche appliquée. La recherche fondamentale, qui comprend deux étapes d'investigation (Etudes 1 et 2), a pour objectifs d'identifier les facteurs endogènes prédictifs d'une écriture manuelle non performante (dextérités digitale et manuelle, intégration visuomotrice ou visuoperception) et d'investiguer les relations entre la lecture, l'attention visuelle, la mémoire audtive et l'écriture manuelle. De plus, elle déterminera la prévalence du TAC parmi les enfants présentant une faible écriture manuelle. La recherche appliquée comporte deux expérimentations. La première expérience a pour but de mesurer les effets d'un programme d'enseignement de l'écriture introduit en fin de deuxième année primaire visant à permettre aux enfants les plus faibles dans le domaine de l'écriture d'améliorer leurs performances. La seconde expérience analyse les effets d'un programme d'enseignement intensif de l'écriture manuelle qui s'est déroulé au début de la première année de scolarité obligatoire. L'acquisition de l'écriture est complexe tant au niveau du contróle moteur que du codage phonème -graphème ou de l'attention. L'écriture manuelle, en tant que compétence de base dans le développement des acquisitions scolaires, demeure tout au long de la scolarité et de la vie professionnelle, une compétence incontournable malgré le développement des nouvelles technologies. Remplir un formulaire, prendre des notes dans une séance ou à un cours, signer des documents, consigner des notes dans des dossiers, utiliser des écrans tactiles constituent des activités nécessitant une écriture manuelle fonctionnelle.

Clinical characteristics and outcome of infective endocarditis involving implantable cardiac devices.

CONTEXT: Infection of implantable cardiac devices is an emerging disease with significant morbidity, mortality, and health care costs. OBJECTIVES: To describe the clinical characteristics and outcome of cardiac device infective endocarditis (CDIE) with attention to its health care association and to evaluate the association between device removal during index hospitalization and outcome. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PATIENTS: Prospective cohort study using data from the International Collaboration on Endocarditis-Prospective Cohort Study (ICE-PCS), conducted June 2000 through August 2006 in 61 centers in 28 countries. Patients were hospitalized adults with definite endocarditis as defined by modified Duke endocarditis criteria. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: In-hospital and 1-year mortality. RESULTS: CDIE was diagnosed in 177 (6.4% [95% CI, 5.5%-7.4%]) of a total cohort of 2760 patients with definite infective endocarditis. The clinical profile of CDIE included advanced patient age (median, 71.2 years [interquartile range, 59.8-77.6]); causation by staphylococci (62 [35.0% {95% CI, 28.0%-42.5%}] Staphylococcus aureus and 56 [31.6% {95% CI, 24.9%-39.0%}] coagulase-negative staphylococci); and a high prevalence of health care-associated infection (81 [45.8% {95% CI, 38.3%-53.4%}]). There was coexisting valve involvement in 66 (37.3% [95% CI, 30.2%-44.9%]) patients, predominantly tricuspid valve infection (43/177 [24.3%]), with associated higher mortality. In-hospital and 1-year mortality rates were 14.7% (26/177 [95% CI, 9.8%-20.8%]) and 23.2% (41/177 [95% CI, 17.2%-30.1%]), respectively. Proportional hazards regression analysis showed a survival benefit at 1 year for device removal during the initial hospitalization (28/141 patients [19.9%] who underwent device removal during the index hospitalization had died at 1 year, vs 13/34 [38.2%] who did not undergo device removal; hazard ratio, 0.42 [95% CI, 0.22-0.82]). CONCLUSIONS: Among patients with CDIE, the rate of concomitant valve infection is high, as is mortality, particularly if there is valve involvement. Early device removal is associated with improved survival at 1 year.

Appropriate drug treatment for status epilepticus does not influence its prognosis

Objective: Status epilepticus (SE) prognosis, is mostly related to non-modifiable factors (especially age, etiology), but the specific role of treatment appropriateness (TA) has not been investigated. Methods: In a prospective cohort with incident SE (excluding postanoxic), TA was defined, after recent European recommendations, in terms of drug dosage (630% deviation) and sequence. Outcome at hospital discharge was categorized into mortality, new handicap, or return to baseline. Results: Among 225 adults, treatment was inappropriate in 37%. In univariate analyses, age, etiology, SE severity and comorbidity, but not TA, were significantly related to outcome. Etiology (95% CI 4.3-82.8) and SE severity (95% CI 1.2-2.4) were independent predictors of mortality, and of lack of return to baseline conditions (etiology: 95% CI 3.9-14.0; SE severity: 95% CI 1.4-2.2). Moreover, TA did not improve outcome prediction in the corresponding ROC curves. Conclusions: This large analysis suggests that TA plays a negligible prognostic role in SE, probably reflecting the outstanding importance of the biological background. Awaiting treatment trials in SE, it appears questionable to apply further resources in refining treatment protocols involving existing compounds; rather, new therapeutic approaches should be identified and tested.

Comparison of application of the ACC/AHA guidelines, Adult Treatment Panel III guidelines, and European Society of Cardiology guidelines for cardiovascular disease prevention in a European cohort.

IMPORTANCE: The 2013 American College of Cardiology/American Heart Association (ACC/AHA) guidelines introduced a prediction model and lowered the threshold for treatment with statins to a 7.5% 10-year hard atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease (ASCVD) risk. Implications of the new guideline's threshold and model have not been addressed in non-US populations or compared with previous guidelines. OBJECTIVE: To determine population-wide implications of the ACC/AHA, the Adult Treatment Panel III (ATP-III), and the European Society of Cardiology (ESC) guidelines using a cohort of Dutch individuals aged 55 years or older. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: We included 4854 Rotterdam Study participants recruited in 1997-2001. We calculated 10-year risks for "hard" ASCVD events (including fatal and nonfatal coronary heart disease [CHD] and stroke) (ACC/AHA), hard CHD events (fatal and nonfatal myocardial infarction, CHD mortality) (ATP-III), and atherosclerotic CVD mortality (ESC). MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Events were assessed until January 1, 2012. Per guideline, we calculated proportions of individuals for whom statins would be recommended and determined calibration and discrimination of risk models. RESULTS: The mean age was 65.5 (SD, 5.2) years. Statins would be recommended for 96.4% (95% CI, 95.4%-97.1%; n = 1825) of men and 65.8% (95% CI, 63.8%-67.7%; n = 1523) of women by the ACC/AHA, 52.0% (95% CI, 49.8%-54.3%; n = 985) of men and 35.5% (95% CI, 33.5%-37.5%; n = 821) of women by the ATP-III, and 66.1% (95% CI, 64.0%-68.3%; n = 1253) of men and 39.1% (95% CI, 37.1%-41.2%; n = 906) of women by ESC guidelines. With the ACC/AHA model, average predicted risk vs observed cumulative incidence of hard ASCVD events was 21.5% (95% CI, 20.9%-22.1%) vs 12.7% (95% CI, 11.1%-14.5%) for men (192 events) and 11.6% (95% CI, 11.2%-12.0%) vs 7.9% (95% CI, 6.7%-9.2%) for women (151 events). Similar overestimation occurred with the ATP-III model (98 events in men and 62 events in women) and ESC model (50 events in men and 37 events in women). The C statistic was 0.67 (95% CI, 0.63-0.71) in men and 0.68 (95% CI, 0.64-0.73) in women for hard ASCVD (ACC/AHA), 0.67 (95% CI, 0.62-0.72) in men and 0.69 (95% CI, 0.63-0.75) in women for hard CHD (ATP-III), and 0.76 (95% CI, 0.70-0.82) in men and 0.77 (95% CI, 0.71-0.83) in women for CVD mortality (ESC). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this European population aged 55 years or older, proportions of individuals eligible for statins differed substantially among the guidelines. The ACC/AHA guideline would recommend statins for nearly all men and two-thirds of women, proportions exceeding those with the ATP-III or ESC guidelines. All 3 risk models provided poor calibration and moderate to good discrimination. Improving risk predictions and setting appropriate population-wide thresholds are necessary to facilitate better clinical decision making.