Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

The 16PF5 and the NEO-PI-R in Spanish and Swiss samples: A cross-cultural comparison

This study compared the Spanish (Castilian) and French versions of the 16PF5 and of the NEO-PI-R in Spanish and Swiss samples. The five-factor solution for the 16PF5 only seems clear for the Castilian version, but not for the French version. Indeed, the congruence coefficients for the Tough-Mindedness and the Self-Control dimensions are low. On the other hand, the five-factor solutions are highly similar for both countries concerning the NEO-PI-R, and the congruence coefficients are above .95 for all five dimensions. The low cross-cultural replicability for the 16PF5 makes it difficult to analyze the differences at the mean level for this inventory. For the NEO-PI-R, the differences are generally very small and globally account for 2.6% of the total variance. Spaniards seem to have slightly lower scores on Actions and slightly higher scores on Dutifulness. These differences could either be due to translation problems, sample selection, or cultural differences.

The accumulation of reproductive incompatibilities in African cichlid fish.

The rate at which different components of reproductive isolation accumulate with divergence time between species has only been studied in a limited, but growing, number of species. We measured premating isolation and hybrid inviability at four different ontogenetic stages from zygotes to adults in interspecific hybrids of 26 pairs of African cichlid species, spanning the entire East African haplochromine radiation. We then used multiple relaxed molecular clock calibrations to translate genetic distances into absolute ages to compare evolutionary rates of different components of reproductive isolation. We find that premating isolation accumulates fast initially but then changes little with increasing genetic distance between species. In contrast, postmating isolation between closely related species is negligible but then accumulates rapidly, resulting in complete hybrid inviability after 4.4/8.5/18.4 million years (my). Thus, the rate at which complete intrinsic incompatibilities arise in this system is orders of magnitude lower than rates of speciation within individual lake radiations. Together these results suggest divergent ecological adaptations may prevent populations from interbreeding and help maintain cichlid species diversity, which may be vulnerable to environmental degradation. By quantifying the capacity to produce viable hybrids between allopatric, distantly related lineages our results also provide an upper divergence time limit for the "hybrid swarm origin" model of adaptive radiation.

A matter of scale: apparent niche differentiation of diploid and tetraploid plants may depend on extent and grain of analysis

Aim: Emerging polyploids may depend on environmental niche shifts for successful establishment. Using the alpine plant Ranunculus kuepferi as a model system, we explore the niche shift hypothesis at different spatial resolutions and in contrasting parts of the species range. Location: European Alps. Methods: We sampled 12 individuals from each of 102 populations of R. kuepferi across the Alps, determined their ploidy levels, derived coarse-grain (100x100m) environmental descriptors for all sampling sites by downscaling WorldClim maps, and calculated fine-scale environmental descriptors (2x2m) from indicator values of the vegetation accompanying the sampled individuals. Both coarse and fine-scale variables were further computed for 8239 vegetation plots from across the Alps. Subsequently, we compared niche optima and breadths of diploid and tetraploid cytotypes by combining principal components analysis and kernel smoothing procedures. Comparisons were done separately for coarse and fine-grain data sets and for sympatric, allopatric and the total set of populations. Results: All comparisons indicate that the niches of the two cytotypes differ in optima and/or breadths, but results vary in important details. The whole-range analysis suggests differentiation along the temperature gradient to be most important. However, sympatric comparisons indicate that this climatic shift was not a direct response to competition with diploid ancestors. Moreover, fine-grained analyses demonstrate niche contraction of tetraploids, especially in the sympatric range, that goes undetected with coarse-grained data. Main conclusions: Although the niche optima of the two cytotypes differ, separation along ecological gradients was probably less decisive for polyploid establishment than a shift towards facultative apomixis, a particularly effective strategy to avoid minority cytotype exclusion. In addition, our results suggest that coarse-grained analyses overestimate niche breadths of widely distributed taxa. Niche comparison analyses should hence be conducted at environmental data resolutions appropriate for the organism and question under study.

Expression of MYC, IgM, As Well As Non-Germinal Centre B-Cell Like Immunophenotype and Positive Immunofish Index Predict a Worse Progression Free Survival and Overall Survival in a Series of 670 De Novo Diffuse Large B-Cell Lymphomas Included in Clinical Trials: A GELA Study of the 2003 Program

Introduction: Diffuse large B-cell lymphomas (DLBCL) represent a heterogeneous disease with variable clinical outcome. Identifying phenotypic biomarkers of tumor cells on paraffin sections that predict different clinical outcome remain an important goal that may also help to better understand the biology of this lymphoma. Differentiating non-germinal centre B-cell-like (non-GCB) from Germinal Centre B-cell-like (GCB) DLBCL according to Hans algorithm has been considered as an important immunohistochemical biomarker with prognostic value among patients treated with R-CHOP although not reproducibly found by all groups. Gene expression studies have also shown that IgM expression might be used as a surrogate for the GCB and ABC subtypes with a strong preferential expression of IgM in ABC DLBCL subtype. ImmunoFISH index based on the differential expression of MUM-1, FOXP1 by immunohistochemistry and on the BCL6 rearrangement by FISH has been previously reported (C Copie-Bergman, J Clin Oncol. 2009;27:5573-9) as prognostic in an homogeneous series of DLBCL treated with R-CHOP. In addition, oncogenic MYC protein overexpression by immunohistochemistry may represent an easy tool to identify the consequences of MYC deregulation in DLBCL. Our aim was to analyse by immunohistochemistry the prognostic relevance of MYC, IgM, GCB/nonGCB subtype and ImmunoFISH index in a large series of de novo DLBCL treated with Rituximab (R)-chemotherapy (anthracyclin based) included in the 2003 program of the Groupe d'Etude des Lymphomes de l'Adulte (GELA) trials. Methods: The 2003 program included patients with de novo CD20+ DLBCL enrolled in 6 different LNH-03 GELA trials (LNH-03-1B, -B, -3B, 39B, -6B, 7B) stratifying patients according to age and age-adjusted IPI. Tumor samples were analyzed by immunohistochemistry using CD10, BCL6, MUM1, FOXP1 (according to Barrans threshold), MYC, IgM antibodies on tissue microarrays and by FISH using BCL6 split signal DNA probes. Considering evaluable Hans score, 670 patients were included in the study with 237 (35.4%) receiving intensive R-ACVBP regimen and 433 (64.6%) R-CHOP/R-mini-CHOP. Results: 304 (45.4%) DLBCL were classified as GCB and 366 (54.6%) as non-GCB according to Hans algorithm. 337/567 cases (59.4%) were positive for the ImmunoFISH index (i.e. two out of the three markers positive: MUM1 protein positive, FOXP1 protein Variable or Strong, BCL6 rearrangement). Immunofish index was preferentially positive in the non-GCB subtype (81.3%) compared to the GCB subtype (31.2%), (p<0.001). IgM was recorded as positive in tumor cells in 351/637 (52.4%) DLBCL cases with a preferential expression in non-GCB 195 (53.3%) vs GCB subtype 100(32.9%), p<0.001). MYC was positive in 170/577 (29.5%) cases with a 40% cut-off and in 44/577 (14.2%) cases with a cut-off of 70%. There was no preferential expression of MYC among GCB or non-GCB subtype (p>0.4) for both cut-offs. Progression-free Survival (PFS) was significantly worse among patients with high IPI score (p<0.0001), IgM positive tumor (p<0.0001), MYC positive tumor with a 40% threshold (p<0.001), ImmunoFISH positive index (p<0.002), non-GCB DLBCL subtype (p<0.0001). Overall Survival (OS) was also significantly worse among patients with high IPI score (p<0.0001), IgM positive tumor (p=0.02), MYC positive tumor with a 40% threshold (p<0.01), ImmunoFISH positive index (p=0.02), non-GCB DLBCL subtype (p<0.0001). All significant parameters were included in a multivariate analysis using Cox Model and in addition to IPI, only the GCB/non-GCB subtype according to Hans algorithm predicted significantly a worse PFS among non-GCB subgroup (HR 1.9 [1.3-2.8] p=0.002) as well as a worse OS (HR 2.0 [1.3-3.2], p=0.003). This strong prognostic value of non-GCB subtyping was confirmed considering only patients treated with R- CHOP for PFS (HR 2.1 [1.4-3.3], p=0.001) and for OS (HR 2.3 [1.3-3.8], p=0.002). Conclusion: Our study on a large series of patients included in trials confirmed the relevance of immunohistochemistry as a useful tool to identify significant prognostic biomarkers for clinical use. We show here that IgM and MYC might be useful prognostic biomarkers. In addition, we confirmed in this series the prognostic value of the ImmunoFISH index. Above all, we fully validated the strong and independent prognostic value of the Hans algorithm, daily used by the pathologists to subtype DLBCL.

Distribution of metals exposure and associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study".

BACKGROUND: Metals are known endocrine disruptors and have been linked to cardiometabolic diseases via multiple potential mechanisms, yet few human studies have both the exposure variability and biologically-relevant phenotype data available. We sought to examine the distribution of metals exposure and potential associations with cardiometabolic risk factors in the "Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study" (METS), a prospective cohort study designed to assess energy balance and change in body weight, diabetes and cardiovascular disease risk in five countries at different stages of social and economic development. METHODS: Young adults (25-45 years) of African descent were enrolled (N = 500 from each site) in: Ghana, South Africa, Seychelles, Jamaica and the U.S.A. We randomly selected 150 blood samples (N = 30 from each site) to determine concentrations of selected metals (arsenic, cadmium, lead, mercury) in a subset of participants at baseline and to examine associations with cardiometabolic risk factors. RESULTS: Median (interquartile range) metal concentrations (μg/L) were: arsenic 8.5 (7.7); cadmium 0.01 (0.8); lead 16.6 (16.1); and mercury 1.5 (5.0). There were significant differences in metals concentrations by: site location, paid employment status, education, marital status, smoking, alcohol use, and fish intake. After adjusting for these covariates plus age and sex, arsenic (OR 4.1, 95% C.I. 1.2, 14.6) and lead (OR 4.0, 95% C.I. 1.6, 9.6) above the median values were significantly associated with elevated fasting glucose. These associations increased when models were further adjusted for percent body fat: arsenic (OR 5.6, 95% C.I. 1.5, 21.2) and lead (OR 5.0, 95% C.I. 2.0, 12.7). Cadmium and mercury were also related with increased odds of elevated fasting glucose, but the associations were not statistically significant. Arsenic was significantly associated with increased odds of low HDL cholesterol both with (OR 8.0, 95% C.I. 1.8, 35.0) and without (OR 5.9, 95% C.I. 1.5, 23.1) adjustment for percent body fat. CONCLUSIONS: While not consistent for all cardiometabolic disease markers, these results are suggestive of potentially important associations between metals exposure and cardiometabolic risk. Future studies will examine these associations in the larger cohort over time.

Increased body fat is independently and negatively related with cardiorespiratory fitness levels in children and adolescents with normal weight.

Body mass index (BMI) is related with cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF), but less is known regarding the combined relationships between BMI and body fat (BF) on CRF. Cross-sectional study included 2361 girls and 2328 boys aged 10–18 years living in the area of Lisbon, Portugal. BMI was calculated by measuring height and weight, and obesity was assessed by international criteria. BF was assessed by bioimpedance. CRF was assessed by the 20-m shuttle run and the participants were classified as normal-to-high or low-CRF level according to Fitness gram criterion-referenced standards. The prevalence of low CRF was 47 and 39% in girls and boys, respectively. The corresponding values for the prevalence of obesity were 4.8 and 5.6% (not significant) and of excess BF of 12.1 and 25.1% (P <0.001), respectively. In both sexes, BMI and BF were inversely related with CRF: r = – 0.53 and – 0.45 for BMI and % BF, respectively, in boys and the corresponding values in girls were – 0.50 and – 0.33 (all P <0.01). When compared with a participant with normal BMI and BF, the odds ratios (95% confidence interval) for low CRF were 1.94 (1.46–2.58) for a participant with normal BMI and high BF, and 6.19 (5.02–7.63) for a participant with high BMI and high BF. The prevalence of low-CRF levels is high in Portuguese youths. BF negatively influences CRF levels among children/adolescents with normal BMI.

Identifying genetic signatures of selection in a non-model species, alpine gentian (Gentiana nivalis L.), using a landscape genetic approach

It is generally accepted that most plant populations are locally adapted. Yet, understanding how environmental forces give rise to adaptive genetic variation is a challenge in conservation genetics and crucial to the preservation of species under rapidly changing climatic conditions. Environmental variation, phylogeographic history, and population demographic processes all contribute to spatially structured genetic variation, however few current models attempt to separate these confounding effects. To illustrate the benefits of using a spatially-explicit model for identifying potentially adaptive loci, we compared outlier locus detection methods with a recently-developed landscape genetic approach. We analyzed 157 loci from samples of the alpine herb Gentiana nivalis collected across the European Alps. Principle coordinates of neighbor matrices (PCNM), eigenvectors that quantify multi-scale spatial variation present in a data set, were incorporated into a landscape genetic approach relating AFLP frequencies with 23 environmental variables. Four major findings emerged. 1) Fifteen loci were significantly correlated with at least one predictor variable (R (adj) (2) > 0.5). 2) Models including PCNM variables identified eight more potentially adaptive loci than models run without spatial variables. 3) When compared to outlier detection methods, the landscape genetic approach detected four of the same loci plus 11 additional loci. 4) Temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation were the three major environmental factors driving potentially adaptive genetic variation in G. nivalis. Techniques presented in this paper offer an efficient method for identifying potentially adaptive genetic variation and associated environmental forces of selection, providing an important step forward for the conservation of non-model species under global change.

A mathematical model to describe fat oxidation kinetics during graded exercise.

PURPOSE: The purpose of this study was to develop a mathematical model (sine model, SIN) to describe fat oxidation kinetics as a function of the relative exercise intensity [% of maximal oxygen uptake (%VO2max)] during graded exercise and to determine the exercise intensity (Fatmax) that elicits maximal fat oxidation (MFO) and the intensity at which the fat oxidation becomes negligible (Fatmin). This model included three independent variables (dilatation, symmetry, and translation) that incorporated primary expected modulations of the curve because of training level or body composition. METHODS: Thirty-two healthy volunteers (17 women and 15 men) performed a graded exercise test on a cycle ergometer, with 3-min stages and 20-W increments. Substrate oxidation rates were determined using indirect calorimetry. SIN was compared with measured values (MV) and with other methods currently used [i.e., the RER method (MRER) and third polynomial curves (P3)]. RESULTS: There was no significant difference in the fitting accuracy between SIN and P3 (P = 0.157), whereas MRER was less precise than SIN (P < 0.001). Fatmax (44 +/- 10% VO2max) and MFO (0.37 +/- 0.16 g x min(-1)) determined using SIN were significantly correlated with MV, P3, and MRER (P < 0.001). The variable of dilatation was correlated with Fatmax, Fatmin, and MFO (r = 0.79, r = 0.67, and r = 0.60, respectively, P < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: The SIN model presents the same precision as other methods currently used in the determination of Fatmax and MFO but in addition allows calculation of Fatmin. Moreover, the three independent variables are directly related to the main expected modulations of the fat oxidation curve. SIN, therefore, seems to be an appropriate tool in analyzing fat oxidation kinetics obtained during graded exercise.

International Olympic Committee consensus statement on thermoregulatory and altitude challenges for high-level athletes

Challenging environmental conditions, including heat and humidity, cold, and altitude, pose particular risks to the health of Olympic and other high-level athletes. As a further commitment to athlete safety, the International Olympic Committee (IOC) Medical Commission convened a panel of experts to review the scientific evidence base, reach consensus, and underscore practical safety guidelines and new research priorities regarding the unique environmental challenges Olympic and other international-level athletes face. For non-aquatic events, external thermal load is dependent on ambient temperature, humidity, wind speed and solar radiation, while clothing and protective gear can measurably increase thermal strain and prompt premature fatigue. In swimmers, body heat loss is the direct result of convection at a rate that is proportional to the effective water velocity around the swimmer and the temperature difference between the skin and the water. Other cold exposure and conditions, such as during Alpine skiing, biathlon and other sliding sports, facilitate body heat transfer to the environment, potentially leading to hypothermia and/or frostbite; although metabolic heat production during these activities usually increases well above the rate of body heat loss, and protective clothing and limited exposure time in certain events reduces these clinical risks as well. Most athletic events are held at altitudes that pose little to no health risks; and training exposures are typically brief and well-tolerated. While these and other environment-related threats to performance and safety can be lessened or averted by implementing a variety of individual and event preventative measures, more research and evidence-based guidelines and recommendations are needed. In the mean time, the IOC Medical Commission and International Sport Federations have implemented new guidelines and taken additional steps to mitigate risk even further.

No experimental evidence that sibling competition induces young to switch nests in the colonial Alpine swift, Apus melba

Adoption is frequent in colonial animals where opportunities for dependent young to receive care from nonbiological parents are high. The departure of dependent young from their original family to seek adoption in neighbouring families is thought to be induced by sibling competition for access to limited resources provided by poor-quality parents. We tested this hypothesis in the colonial Alpine swift by manipulating the number of young reared per brood, with the prediction that offspring from enlarged broods switch nests more frequently than those from reduced broods. Although nestling swifts hatch with little locomotor activity, from 20 days until their first flight at 50-70 days they frequently move out of their nests to seek adoption in neighbouring families. Although nestlings reared in experimentally enlarged broods were lighter and their body mass at day 20 after hatching was more variable than in nestlings reared in reduced broods, there was no difference between the two treatments in the frequency of nests switching and in the age when nestlings switched nests for the first time. However, consistent with other evidence that nest switching by nestling swifts evolved as a strategy to reduce ectoparasite load, young from broods with naturally high numbers of the ectoparasitic louse fly Crataerina melbae were more prone to switch nests. This shows that ectoparasitism rather than sibling competition is a key proximate factor promoting the evolution of nest switching in the colonial Alpine swift. (c) 2006 The Association for the Study of Animal Behaviour Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Same wording, distinct concepts? Testing differences between expectancies and motives in a mediation model of alcohol outcomes.

Per definition, alcohol expectancies (after alcohol I expect X), and drinking motives (I drink to achieve X) are conceptually distinct constructs. Theorists have argued that motives mediate the association between expectancies and drinking outcomes. Yet, given the use of different instruments, do these constructs remain distinct when assessment items are matched? The present study tested to what extent motives mediated the link between expectancies and alcohol outcomes when identical items were used, first as expectancies and then as motives. A linear structural equation model was estimated based on a national representative sample of 5,779 alcohol-using students in Switzerland (mean age = 15.2 years). The results showed that expectancies explained up to 38% of the variance in motives. Together with motives, they explained up to 48% of the variance in alcohol outcomes (volume, 5+ drinking, and problems). In 10 of 12 outcomes, there was a significant mediated effect that was often higher than the direct expectancy effect. For coping, the expectancy effect was close to zero, indicating the strongest form of mediation. In only one case (conformity and 5+ drinking), there was a direct expectancy effect but no mediation. To conclude, the study demonstrates that motives are distinct from expectancies even when identical items are used. Motives are more proximally related to different alcohol outcomes, often mediating the effects of expectancies. Consequently, the effectiveness of interventions, particularly those aimed at coping drinkers, should be improved through a shift in focus from expectancies to drinking motives.

Flow-R, a model for susceptibility mapping of debris flows and other gravitational hazards at a regional scale: some case studies

Every year, debris flows cause huge damage in mountainous areas. Due to population pressure in hazardous zones, the socio-economic impact is much higher than in the past. Therefore, the development of indicative susceptibility hazard maps is of primary importance, particularly in developing countries. However, the complexity of the phenomenon and the variability of local controlling factors limit the use of processbased models for a first assessment. A debris flow model has been developed for regional susceptibility assessments using digital elevation model (DEM) with a GIS-based approach.. The automatic identification of source areas and the estimation of debris flow spreading, based on GIS tools, provide a substantial basis for a preliminary susceptibility assessment at a regional scale. One of the main advantages of this model is its workability. In fact, everything is open to the user, from the data choice to the selection of the algorithms and their parameters. The Flow-R model was tested in three different contexts: two in Switzerland and one in Pakistan, for indicative susceptibility hazard mapping. It was shown that the quality of the DEM is the most important parameter to obtain reliable results for propagation, but also to identify the potential debris flows sources.