Spatial relationship between the atmospheric circulation and the precipitation measured in the western Swiss Alps by means of the analogue method

An adaptation technique based on the synoptic atmospheric circulation to forecast local precipitation, namely the analogue method, has been implemented for the western Swiss Alps. During the calibration procedure, relevance maps were established for the geopotential height data. These maps highlight the locations were the synoptic circulation was found of interest for the precipitation forecasting at two rain gauge stations (Binn and Les Marécottes) that are located both in the alpine Rhône catchment, at a distance of about 100 km from each other. These two stations are sensitive to different atmospheric circulations. We have observed that the most relevant data for the analogue method can be found where specific atmospheric circulation patterns appear concomitantly with heavy precipitation events. Those skilled regions are coherent with the atmospheric flows illustrated, for example, by means of the back trajectories of air masses. Indeed, the circulation recurrently diverges from the climatology during days with strong precipitation on the southern part of the alpine Rhône catchment. We have found that for over 152 days with precipitation amount above 50 mm at the Binn station, only 3 did not show a trajectory of a southerly flow, meaning that such a circulation was present for 98% of the events. Time evolution of the relevance maps confirms that the atmospheric circulation variables have significantly better forecasting skills close to the precipitation period, and that it seems pointless for the analogue method to consider circulation information days before a precipitation event as a primary predictor. Even though the occurrence of some critical circulation patterns leading to heavy precipitation events can be detected by precursors at remote locations and 1 week ahead (Grazzini, 2007; Martius et al., 2008), time extrapolation by the analogue method seems to be rather poor. This would suggest, in accordance with previous studies (Obled et al., 2002; Bontron and Obled, 2005), that time extrapolation should be done by the Global Circulation Model, which can process atmospheric variables that can be used by the adaptation method.

BME-based uncertainty assessment of the Chernobyl fallout

The vast territories that have been radioactively contaminated during the 1986 Chernobyl accident provide a substantial data set of radioactive monitoring data, which can be used for the verification and testing of the different spatial estimation (prediction) methods involved in risk assessment studies. Using the Chernobyl data set for such a purpose is motivated by its heterogeneous spatial structure (the data are characterized by large-scale correlations, short-scale variability, spotty features, etc.). The present work is concerned with the application of the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method to estimate the extent and the magnitude of the radioactive soil contamination by 137Cs due to the Chernobyl fallout. The powerful BME method allows rigorous incorporation of a wide variety of knowledge bases into the spatial estimation procedure leading to informative contamination maps. Exact measurements (?hard? data) are combined with secondary information on local uncertainties (treated as ?soft? data) to generate science-based uncertainty assessment of soil contamination estimates at unsampled locations. BME describes uncertainty in terms of the posterior probability distributions generated across space, whereas no assumption about the underlying distribution is made and non-linear estimators are automatically incorporated. Traditional estimation variances based on the assumption of an underlying Gaussian distribution (analogous, e.g., to the kriging variance) can be derived as a special case of the BME uncertainty analysis. The BME estimates obtained using hard and soft data are compared with the BME estimates obtained using only hard data. The comparison involves both the accuracy of the estimation maps using the exact data and the assessment of the associated uncertainty using repeated measurements. Furthermore, a comparison of the spatial estimation accuracy obtained by the two methods was carried out using a validation data set of hard data. Finally, a separate uncertainty analysis was conducted that evaluated the ability of the posterior probabilities to reproduce the distribution of the raw repeated measurements available in certain populated sites. The analysis provides an illustration of the improvement in mapping accuracy obtained by adding soft data to the existing hard data and, in general, demonstrates that the BME method performs well both in terms of estimation accuracy as well as in terms estimation error assessment, which are both useful features for the Chernobyl fallout study.

Anthropogenic radionuclides in atmospheric air over Switzerland during the last few decades.

The atmospheric nuclear testing in the 1950s and early 1960s and the burn-up of the SNAP-9A satellite led to large injections of radionuclides into the stratosphere. It is generally accepted that current levels of plutonium and caesium radionuclides in the stratosphere are negligible. Here we show that those radionuclides are present in the stratosphere at higher levels than in the troposphere. The lower content in the troposphere reveals that dry and wet deposition efficiently removes radionuclides within a period of a few weeks to months. Since the stratosphere is thermally stratified and separated from the troposphere by the tropopause, radioactive aerosols remain longer. We estimate a mean residence time for plutonium and caesium radionuclides in the stratosphere of 2.5-5 years. Our results also reveal that strong volcanic eruptions like Eyjafjallajökull in 2010 have an important role in redistributing anthropogenic radionuclides from the stratosphere to the troposphere.

Simultaneous determination of Pu and Am radioisotopes in environmental samples: a tool for determining origin and release date

A radiochemical procedure was developed for the sequential determination of Pu and Am radioisotopes in environmental samples. The radioisotope activities were then used to assess the origin and release date of the environmental plutonium. The radioanalytical procedure is based on the separation of Pu and Am on selective extraction chromatographic resins (Eichrom TEVA and DGA). Alpha sources were prepared by electrodeposition on stainless steel discs, and the alpha emitting radionuclides (238Pu, 239,240Pu and 241Am) were measured by alpha spectrometry. For the determination of the beta emitting 241Pu, the Pu alpha source was leached in hot concentrated nitric acid and the Pu fraction further purified by extraction chromatography on a small column of TEVA resin (100 μg of resin in a pipette tip). 241Pu is then measured by ultra low level liquid scintillation counting. Due to the lack of reference material for 241Pu, the proposed radiochemical method was nevertheless validated using four IAEA reference sediments with information values of 241Pu. The proposed method was then used to determine the 238Pu, 239,240Pu, 241Pu and 241Am activity concentrations in alpine soils of France and Switzerland. The soil is the primary receptor of the atmospheric radioactive fallout and, because of the strong binding interaction with soils particles, the isotopes are little fractionated. Therefore, the activity ratios 241Pu/239+240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu in soil samples were used to determine the origin (source) and date of the Pu contamination in the investigated alpine sites. The 241Pu/239,240Pu and 238Pu/239,240Pu activity ratios confirmed that the main origin of Pu in the alpine soils was the global fallout from the nuclear bomb tests (NBT) in the fifties and sixties. Furthermore, the 241Pu/241Am activity ratios were used to determine the age of the Pu contamination, which is also an important data for distinguishing the Pu sources. The estimation of the date of the contamination, by the 241Pu/241Am age-dating method, further confirmed the NBT as the Pu source. However, the 241Pu/241Am dating method was limited to samples where Pu-Am fractionation was insignificant. If any, the contribution of the Chernobyl accident in the studied sites is negligible.

Atmospheric deposition and migration of artificial radionuclides in Alpine soils (Val Piora, Switzerland) compared to the distribution of selected major and trace elements.

Artificial radionuclides ((137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, and (241)Am) are present in soils because of Nuclear Weapon Tests and accidents in nuclear facilities. Their distribution in soil depth varies according to soil characteristics, their own chemical properties, and their deposition history. For this project, we studied the atmospheric deposition of (137)Cs, (90)Sr, Pu, (241)Am, (210)Pb, and stable Pb. We compared the distribution of these elements in soil profiles from different soil types from an alpine Valley (Val Piora, Switzerland) with the distribution of selected major and trace elements in the same soils. Our goals were to explain the distribution of the radioisotopes as a function of soil parameters and to identify stable elements with analogous behaviors. We found that Pu and (241)Am are relatively immobile and accumulate in the topsoil. In all soils, (90)Sr is more mobile and shows some accumulations at depth into Fe-Al rich horizons. This behavior is also observed for Cu and Zn, indicating that these elements may be used as chemical analogues for the migration of (90)Sr into the soil.

Long-term and long-range migration of radioactive fallout in a Karst system.

Mountainous areas are often covered by little evolved soils from which deposited radionuclides can potentially leak into the vadose zone. In the Swiss Jura mountains, we observed unusual isotopic ratios of nuclear weapon test (NWTs) fallout with an apparent loss of NWTs plutonium relative to &supl;³⁷Cs of Chernobyl origin in thinner soils. Here, we studied the karstic watershed of a vauclusian spring to determine the residence times of plutonium, ²⁴&supl;Am, and ⁹⁰Sr deposited by global fallout and their respective mobility in carbonaceous soils. The results show that ⁹⁰Sr is washed most efficiently from the watershed with a residence time of several hundred years. The estimated plutonium residence time is more than 10 times higher (in the range of 5000-10,000 years), and the ²⁴&supl;Am residence time is double that of plutonium. The spring water ²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio is lower (0.12 - 0.28) than found in watershed soils (0.382 ± 0.077). Similar differences are found in aquatic mosses (²⁴&supl;Am/²³⁹+²⁴⁰Pu isotopic ratio 0.05-0.12), which are permanently submerged in spring waters. In contrast to plutonium, ⁹⁰Sr is leached from these mosses with 0.5M HCl, demonstrating that strontium is probably associated with calcium carbonate precipitations on the mosses. The higher plutonium to americium isotopic ratio found in the samples of spring water and mosses at the outlet of the karst shows that plutonium mobility is enhanced.

Mineralogical alteration of artificial meteorites during atmospheric entry. The STONE-5 experiment

The generic concept of the artificial meteorite experiment STONE is to fix rock samples bearing microorganisms on the heat shield of a recoverable space capsule and to study their modifications during atmospheric re-entry. The STONE-5 experiment was performed mainly to answer astrobiological questions. The rock samples mounted on the heat shield were used (i) as a carrier for microorganisms and (ii) as internal control to verify whether physical conditions during atmospheric re-entry were comparable to those experienced by "real" meteorites. Samples of dolerite (an igneous rock), sandstone (a sedimentary rock), and gneiss impactite from Haughton Crater carrying endolithic cyanobacteria were fixed to the heat shield of the unmanned recoverable capsule FOTON-M2. Holes drilled on the back side of each rock sample were loaded with bacterial and fungal spores and with dried vegetative cryptoendoliths. The front of the gneissic sample was also soaked with cryptoendoliths. <p>The mineralogical differences between pre- and post-flight samples are detailed. Despite intense ablation resulting in deeply eroded samples, all rocks in part survived atmospheric re-entry. Temperatures attained during re-entry were high enough to melt dolerite, silica, and the gneiss impactite sample. The formation of fusion crusts in STONE-5 was a real novelty and strengthens the link with real meteorites. The exposed part of the dolerite is covered by a fusion crust consisting of silicate glass formed from the rock sample with an admixture of holder material (silica). Compositionally, the fusion crust varies from silica-rich areas (undissolved silica fibres of the holder material) to areas whose composition is "basaltic". Likewise, the fusion crust on the exposed gneiss surface was formed from gneiss with an admixture of holder material. The corresponding composition of the fusion crust varies from silica-rich areas to areas with "gneiss" composition (main component potassium-rich feldspar). The sandstone sample was retrieved intact and did not develop a fusion crust. Thermal decomposition of the calcite matrix followed by disintegration and liberation of the silicate grains prevented the formation of a melt.</p> <p>Furthermore, the non-exposed surface of all samples experienced strong thermal alterations. Hot gases released during ablation pervaded the empty space between sample and sample holder leading to intense local heating. The intense heating below the protective sample holder led to surface melting of the dolerite rock and to the formation of calcium-silicate rims on quartz grains in the sandstone sample. (c) 2008 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.</p>