An improved approach for predicting the distribution of rare and endangered species from occurrence and pseudo-absence data

1. Few examples of habitat-modelling studies of rare and endangered species exist in the literature, although from a conservation perspective predicting their distribution would prove particularly useful. Paucity of data and lack of valid absences are the probable reasons for this shortcoming. Analytic solutions to accommodate the lack of absence include the ecological niche factor analysis (ENFA) and the use of generalized linear models (GLM) with simulated pseudo-absences. 2. In this study we tested a new approach to generating pseudo-absences, based on a preliminary ENFA habitat suitability (HS) map, for the endangered species Eryngium alpinum. This method of generating pseudo-absences was compared with two others: (i) use of a GLM with pseudo-absences generated totally at random, and (ii) use of an ENFA only. 3. The influence of two different spatial resolutions (i.e. grain) was also assessed for tackling the dilemma of quality (grain) vs. quantity (number of occurrences). Each combination of the three above-mentioned methods with the two grains generated a distinct HS map. 4. Four evaluation measures were used for comparing these HS maps: total deviance explained, best kappa, Gini coefficient and minimal predicted area (MPA). The last is a new evaluation criterion proposed in this study. 5. Results showed that (i) GLM models using ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence provide better results, except for the MPA value, and that (ii) quality (spatial resolution and locational accuracy) of the data appears to be more important than quantity (number of occurrences). Furthermore, the proposed MPA value is suggested as a useful measure of model evaluation when used to complement classical statistical measures. 6. Synthesis and applications. We suggest that the use of ENFA-weighted pseudo-absence is a possible way to enhance the quality of GLM-based potential distribution maps and that data quality (i.e. spatial resolution) prevails over quantity (i.e. number of data). Increased accuracy of potential distribution maps could help to define better suitable areas for species protection and reintroduction.

Intervention précoce dans la phase initiale des troubles psychotiques à Lausanne: quels problèmes et quelles solutions [Early intervention for the initial phase of psychotic disorders in Lausanne: what problems and what solutions?]

Schizophrenia has long been considered with pessimism, but the recent interest in the early phase of psychotic disorders has modified this often unjustified perception. Literature has demonstrated the benefit of the development of programs specialised in the treatment of early psychosis, which tend to be developed in many countries. It is however important to match them to local needs as well as to the structure of local health services. This paper reviews elements that justify such a development in Lausanne, Switzerland, and describe its various elements.

Copper, selenium, zinc, and thiamine balances during continuous venovenous hemodiafiltration in critically ill patients.

BACKGROUND: Acute renal failure is a serious complication in critically ill patients and frequently requires renal replacement therapy, which alters trace element and vitamin metabolism. OBJECTIVE: The objective was to study trace element balances during continuous renal replacement therapy (CRRT) in intensive care patients. DESIGN: In a prospective randomized crossover trial, patients with acute renal failure received CRRT with either sodium bicarbonate (Bic) or sodium lactate (Lac) as a buffering agent over 2 consecutive 24-h periods. Copper, selenium, zinc, and thiamine were measured with highly sensitive analytic methods in plasma, replacement solutions, and effluent during 8-h periods. Balances were calculated as the difference between fluids administered and effluent losses and were compared with the recommended intakes (RI) from parenteral nutrition. RESULTS: Nineteen sessions were conducted in 11 patients aged 65 +/- 10 y. Baseline plasma concentrations of copper were normal, whereas those of selenium and zinc were below reference ranges; glutathione peroxidase was in the lower range of normal. The replacement solutions contained no detectable copper, 0.01 micromol Se/L (Bic and Lac), and 1.42 (Bic) and 0.85 (Lac) micromol Zn/L. Micronutrients were detectable in all effluents, and losses were stable in each patient; no significant differences were found between the Bic and Lac groups. The 24-h balances were negative for selenium (-0.97 micromol, or 2 times the daily RI), copper (-6.54 micromol, or 0.3 times the daily RI), and thiamine (-4.12 mg, or 1.5 times the RI) and modestly positive for zinc (20.7 micromol, or 0.2 times the RI). CONCLUSIONS: CRRT results in significant losses and negative balances of selenium, copper, and thiamine, which contribute to low plasma concentrations. Prolonged CRRT is likely to result in selenium and thiamine depletion despite supplementation at recommended amounts.

Some solutions to obtain very efficient separations in isocratic and gradient modes using small particles size and ultra-high pressure.

The UHPLC strategy which combines sub-2 microm porous particles and ultra-high pressure (>1000 bar) was investigated considering very high resolution criteria in both isocratic and gradient modes, with mobile phase temperatures between 30 and 90 degrees C. In isocratic mode, experimental conditions to reach the maximal efficiency were determined using the kinetic plot representation for DeltaP(max)=1000 bar. It has been first confirmed that the molecular weight of the compounds (MW) was a critical parameter which should be considered in the construction of such curves. With a MW around 1000 g mol(-1), efficiencies as high as 300,000 plates could be theoretically attained using UHPLC at 30 degrees C. By limiting the column length to 450 mm, the maximal plate count was around 100,000. In gradient mode, the longest column does not provide the maximal peak capacity for a given analysis time in UHPLC. This was attributed to the fact that peak capacity is not only related to the plate number but also to column dead time. Therefore, a compromise should be found and a 150 mm column should be preferentially selected for gradient lengths up to 60 min at 30 degrees C, while the columns coupled in series (3x 150 mm) were attractive only for t(grad)>250 min. Compared to 30 degrees C, peak capacities were increased by about 20-30% for a constant gradient length at 90 degrees C and gradient time decreased by 2-fold for an identical peak capacity.

Binding of ²³⁹Pu and ⁹⁰Sr to organic colloids in soil solutions: evidence from a field experiment.

Colloidal transport has been shown to enhance the migration of plutonium in groundwater downstream from contaminated sites, but little is known about the adsorption of ⁹⁰Sr and plutonium onto colloids in the soil solution of natural soils. We sampled soil solutions using suction cups, and separated colloids using ultrafiltration to determine the distribution of ²³⁹Pu and ⁹⁰Sr between the truly dissolved fraction and the colloidal fraction of the solutions of three Alpine soils contaminated only by global fallout from the nuclear weapon tests. Plutonium was essentially found in the colloidal fraction (>80%) and probably associated with organic matter. A significant amount of colloidal ⁹⁰Sr was detected in organic-rich soil solutions. Our results suggest that binding to organic colloids in the soil solutions plays a key role with respect to the mobility of plutonium in natural alpine soils and, to a lesser extent, to the mobility of ⁹⁰Sr.

Causality and endogeneity: Problems and solutions

Most leadership and management researchers ignore one key design and estimation problem rendering parameter estimates uninterpretable: Endogeneity. We discuss the problem of endogeneity in depth and explain conditions that engender it using examples grounded in the leadership literature. We show how consistent causal estimates can be derived from the randomized experiment, where endogeneity is eliminated by experimental design. We then review the reasons why estimates may become biased (i.e., inconsistent) in non-experimental designs and present a number of useful remedies for examining causal relations with non-experimental data. We write in intuitive terms using nontechnical language to make this chapter accessible to a large audience.