Estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes: a comparison of several risk scores: the Cohorte Lausannoise study.

To compare in the Swiss population the results of several scores estimating the risk of developing type 2 diabetes. This was a single-center, cross-sectional study conducted between 2003 and 2006 in Lausanne, Switzerland. Overall, 3,251 women and 2,937 men, aged 35-75 years, were assessed, of which 5,760 (93%) were free from diabetes and included in the current study. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes was assessed using seven different risk scores, including clinical data with or without biological data. Participants were considered to be eligible for primary prevention according to the thresholds provided for each score. The results were then extrapolated to the Swiss population of the same sex and age. The risk of developing type 2 diabetes increased with age in all scores. The prevalence of participants at high risk ranged between 1.6 and 24.9% in men and between 1.1 and 15.7% in women. Extrapolated to the Swiss population of similar age, the overall number of participants at risk, and thus susceptible to intervention, ranged between 46,708 and 636,841. In addition, scores that included the same clinical variables led to a significantly different prevalence of participants at risk (4.2% [95% CI 3.4-5.0] vs. 12.8% [11.5-14.1] in men and 2.9% [2.4-3.6] vs. 6.0% [5.2-6.9] in women). CONCLUSIONS; The prevalence of participants at risk for developing type 2 diabetes varies considerably according to the scoring system used. To adequately prevent type 2 diabetes, risk-scoring systems must be validated for each population considered.

Chronic kidney disease in type 2 diabetic patients followed-up by primary care physicians in Switzerland: prevalence and prescription of antidiabetic drugs.

QUESTION UNDER STUDY: The aim of this study was to assess the prevalence of chronic kidney disease (CKD) among type 2 diabetic patients in primary care settings in Switzerland, and to analyse the prescription of antidiabetic drugs in CKD according to the prevailing recommendations. METHODS: In this cross-sectional study, each participating physician was asked to introduce anonymously in a web database the data from up to 15 consecutive diabetic patients attending her/his office between December 2013 and June 2014. Demographic, clinical and biochemical data were analysed. CKD was classified with the KDIGO nomenclature based on estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio. RESULTS: A total of 1 359 patients (mean age 66.5 ± 12.4 years) were included by 109 primary care physicians. CKD stages 3a, 3b and 4 were present in 13.9%, 6.1%, and 2.4% of patients, respectively. Only 30.6% of patients had an entry for urinary albumin/creatinine ratio. Among them, 35.6% were in CKD stage A2, and 4.1% in stage A3. Despite prevailing limitations, metformin and sulfonylureas were prescribed in 53.9% and 16.5%, respectively, of patients with advanced CKD (eGFR <30 ml/min). More than a third of patients were on a dipeptidyl-peptidase-4 inhibitor across all CKD stages. Insulin use increased progressively from 26.8% in CKD stage 1-2 to 50% in stage 4. CONCLUSIONS: CKD is frequent in patients with type 2 diabetes attending Swiss primary care practices, with CKD stage 3 and 4 affecting 22.4% of cases. This emphasizes the importance of routine screening of diabetic nephropathy based on both eGFR and urinary albumin/creatinine ratio, the latter being largely underused by primary care physicians. A careful individual drug risk/benefit balance assessment is mandatory to avoid the frequently observed inappropriate prescription of antidiabetic drugs in CKD patients.

Worldwide trends in diabetes since 1980: a pooled analysis of 751 population-based studies with 4.4 million participants.

One of the global targets for non-communicable diseases is to halt, by 2025, the rise in the age-standardised adult prevalence of diabetes at its 2010 levels. We aimed to estimate worldwide trends in diabetes, how likely it is for countries to achieve the global target, and how changes in prevalence, together with population growth and ageing, are affecting the number of adults with diabetes. We pooled data from population-based studies that had collected data on diabetes through measurement of its biomarkers. We used a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate trends in diabetes prevalence-defined as fasting plasma glucose of 7.0 mmol/L or higher, or history of diagnosis with diabetes, or use of insulin or oral hypoglycaemic drugs-in 200 countries and territories in 21 regions, by sex and from 1980 to 2014. We also calculated the posterior probability of meeting the global diabetes target if post-2000 trends continue. We used data from 751 studies including 4,372,000 adults from 146 of the 200 countries we make estimates for. Global age-standardised diabetes prevalence increased from 4.3% (95% credible interval 2.4-7.0) in 1980 to 9.0% (7.2-11.1) in 2014 in men, and from 5.0% (2.9-7.9) to 7.9% (6.4-9.7) in women. The number of adults with diabetes in the world increased from 108 million in 1980 to 422 million in 2014 (28.5% due to the rise in prevalence, 39.7% due to population growth and ageing, and 31.8% due to interaction of these two factors). Age-standardised adult diabetes prevalence in 2014 was lowest in northwestern Europe, and highest in Polynesia and Micronesia, at nearly 25%, followed by Melanesia and the Middle East and north Africa. Between 1980 and 2014 there was little change in age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adult women in continental western Europe, although crude prevalence rose because of ageing of the population. By contrast, age-standardised adult prevalence rose by 15 percentage points in men and women in Polynesia and Micronesia. In 2014, American Samoa had the highest national prevalence of diabetes (>30% in both sexes), with age-standardised adult prevalence also higher than 25% in some other islands in Polynesia and Micronesia. If post-2000 trends continue, the probability of meeting the global target of halting the rise in the prevalence of diabetes by 2025 at the 2010 level worldwide is lower than 1% for men and is 1% for women. Only nine countries for men and 29 countries for women, mostly in western Europe, have a 50% or higher probability of meeting the global target. Since 1980, age-standardised diabetes prevalence in adults has increased, or at best remained unchanged, in every country. Together with population growth and ageing, this rise has led to a near quadrupling of the number of adults with diabetes worldwide. The burden of diabetes, both in terms of prevalence and number of adults affected, has increased faster in low-income and middle-income countries than in high-income countries. Wellcome Trust.