Scenario-based assessment of future land use change on butterfly species distributions

Species distribution models (SDMs) are increasingly used to predict environmentally induced range shifts of habitats of plant and animal species. Consequently SDMs are valuable tools for scientifically based conservation decisions. The aims of this paper are (1) to identify important drivers of butterfly species persistence or extinction, and (2) to analyse the responses of endangered butterfly species of dry grasslands and wetlands to likely future landscape changes in Switzerland. Future land use was represented by four scenarios describing: (1) ongoing land use changes as observed at the end of the last century; (2) a liberalisation of the agricultural markets; (3) a slightly lowered agricultural production; and (4) a strongly lowered agricultural production. Two model approaches have been applied. The first (logistic regression with principal components) explains what environmental variables have significant impact on species presence (and absence). The second (predictive SDM) is used to project species distribution under current and likely future land uses. The results of the explanatory analyses reveal that four principal components related to urbanisation, abandonment of open land and intensive agricultural practices as well as two climate parameters are primary drivers of species occurrence (decline). The scenario analyses show that lowered agricultural production is likely to favour dry grassland species due to an increase of non-intensively used land, open canopy forests, and overgrown areas. In the liberalisation scenario dry grassland species show a decrease in abundance due to a strong increase of forested patches. Wetland butterfly species would decrease under all four scenarios as their habitats become overgrown

Genetic variation in IL28B is associated with chronic hepatitis C and treatment failure: a genome-wide association study.

BACKGROUND & AIMS: Hepatitis C virus (HCV) induces chronic infection in 50% to 80% of infected persons; approximately 50% of these do not respond to therapy. We performed a genome-wide association study to screen for host genetic determinants of HCV persistence and response to therapy. METHODS: The analysis included 1362 individuals: 1015 with chronic hepatitis C and 347 who spontaneously cleared the virus (448 were coinfected with human immunodeficiency virus [HIV]). Responses to pegylated interferon alfa and ribavirin were assessed in 465 individuals. Associations between more than 500,000 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) and outcomes were assessed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: Chronic hepatitis C was associated with SNPs in the IL28B locus, which encodes the antiviral cytokine interferon lambda. The rs8099917 minor allele was associated with progression to chronic HCV infection (odds ratio [OR], 2.31; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.74-3.06; P = 6.07 x 10(-9)). The association was observed in HCV mono-infected (OR, 2.49; 95% CI, 1.64-3.79; P = 1.96 x 10(-5)) and HCV/HIV coinfected individuals (OR, 2.16; 95% CI, 1.47-3.18; P = 8.24 x 10(-5)). rs8099917 was also associated with failure to respond to therapy (OR, 5.19; 95% CI, 2.90-9.30; P = 3.11 x 10(-8)), with the strongest effects in patients with HCV genotype 1 or 4. This risk allele was identified in 24% of individuals with spontaneous HCV clearance, 32% of chronically infected patients who responded to therapy, and 58% who did not respond (P = 3.2 x 10(-10)). Resequencing of IL28B identified distinct haplotypes that were associated with the clinical phenotype. CONCLUSIONS: The association of the IL28B locus with natural and treatment-associated control of HCV indicates the importance of innate immunity and interferon lambda in the pathogenesis of HCV infection.

Single amino acid charge switch defines clinically distinct proline-serine-threonine phosphatase-interacting protein 1 (PSTPIP1)-associated inflammatory diseases.

BACKGROUND: Hyperzincemia and hypercalprotectinemia (Hz/Hc) is a distinct autoinflammatory entity involving extremely high serum concentrations of the proinflammatory alarmin myeloid-related protein (MRP) 8/14 (S100A8/S100A9 and calprotectin). OBJECTIVE: We sought to characterize the genetic cause and clinical spectrum of Hz/Hc. METHODS: Proline-serine-threonine phosphatase-interacting protein 1 (PSTPIP1) gene sequencing was performed in 14 patients with Hz/Hc, and their clinical phenotype was compared with that of 11 patients with pyogenic arthritis, pyoderma gangrenosum, and acne (PAPA) syndrome. PSTPIP1-pyrin interactions were analyzed by means of immunoprecipitation and Western blotting. A structural model of the PSTPIP1 dimer was generated. Cytokine profiles were analyzed by using the multiplex immunoassay, and MRP8/14 serum concentrations were analyzed by using an ELISA. RESULTS: Thirteen patients were heterozygous for a missense mutation in the PSTPIP1 gene, resulting in a p.E250K mutation, and 1 carried a mutation resulting in p.E257K. Both mutations substantially alter the electrostatic potential of the PSTPIP1 dimer model in a region critical for protein-protein interaction. Patients with Hz/Hc have extremely high MRP8/14 concentrations (2045 ± 1300 μg/mL) compared with those with PAPA syndrome (116 ± 74 μg/mL) and have a distinct clinical phenotype. A specific cytokine profile is associated with Hz/Hc. Hz/Hc mutations altered protein binding of PSTPIP1, increasing interaction with pyrin through phosphorylation of PSTPIP1. CONCLUSION: Mutations resulting in charge reversal in the y-domain of PSTPIP1 (E→K) and increased interaction with pyrin cause a distinct autoinflammatory disorder defined by clinical and biochemical features not found in patients with PAPA syndrome, indicating a unique genotype-phenotype correlation for mutations in the PSTPIP1 gene. This is the first inborn autoinflammatory syndrome in which inflammation is driven by uncontrolled release of members of the alarmin family.