Interactive Epistemology and Reasoning: On the Foundations of Game Theory

Game theory describes and analyzes strategic interaction. It is usually distinguished between static games, which are strategic situations in which the players choose only once as well as simultaneously, and dynamic games, which are strategic situations involving sequential choices. In addition, dynamic games can be further classified according to perfect and imperfect information. Indeed, a dynamic game is said to exhibit perfect information, whenever at any point of the game every player has full informational access to all choices that have been conducted so far. However, in the case of imperfect information some players are not fully informed about some choices. Game-theoretic analysis proceeds in two steps. Firstly, games are modelled by so-called form structures which extract and formalize the significant parts of the underlying strategic interaction. The basic and most commonly used models of games are the normal form, which rather sparsely describes a game merely in terms of the players' strategy sets and utilities, and the extensive form, which models a game in a more detailed way as a tree. In fact, it is standard to formalize static games with the normal form and dynamic games with the extensive form. Secondly, solution concepts are developed to solve models of games in the sense of identifying the choices that should be taken by rational players. Indeed, the ultimate objective of the classical approach to game theory, which is of normative character, is the development of a solution concept that is capable of identifying a unique choice for every player in an arbitrary game. However, given the large variety of games, it is not at all certain whether it is possible to device a solution concept with such universal capability. Alternatively, interactive epistemology provides an epistemic approach to game theory of descriptive character. This rather recent discipline analyzes the relation between knowledge, belief and choice of game-playing agents in an epistemic framework. The description of the players' choices in a given game relative to various epistemic assumptions constitutes the fundamental problem addressed by an epistemic approach to game theory. In a general sense, the objective of interactive epistemology consists in characterizing existing game-theoretic solution concepts in terms of epistemic assumptions as well as in proposing novel solution concepts by studying the game-theoretic implications of refined or new epistemic hypotheses. Intuitively, an epistemic model of a game can be interpreted as representing the reasoning of the players. Indeed, before making a decision in a game, the players reason about the game and their respective opponents, given their knowledge and beliefs. Precisely these epistemic mental states on which players base their decisions are explicitly expressible in an epistemic framework. In this PhD thesis, we consider an epistemic approach to game theory from a foundational point of view. In Chapter 1, basic game-theoretic notions as well as Aumann's epistemic framework for games are expounded and illustrated. Also, Aumann's sufficient conditions for backward induction are presented and his conceptual views discussed. In Chapter 2, Aumann's interactive epistemology is conceptually analyzed. In Chapter 3, which is based on joint work with Conrad Heilmann, a three-stage account for dynamic games is introduced and a type-based epistemic model is extended with a notion of agent connectedness. Then, sufficient conditions for backward induction are derived. In Chapter 4, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa, a topological approach to interactive epistemology is initiated. In particular, the epistemic-topological operator limit knowledge is defined and some implications for games considered. In Chapter 5, which is based on joint work with Jérémie Cabessa and Andrés Perea, Aumann's impossibility theorem on agreeing to disagree is revisited and weakened in the sense that possible contexts are provided in which agents can indeed agree to disagree.

Profiles of drug users in Switzerland and effects of early-onset intensive use of alcohol, tobacco and cannabis on other illicit drug use.

QUESTIONS UNDER STUDY / PRINCIPLES: The main aim of this study was to investigate profiles of drug users, with a particular focus on illicit drugs other than cannabis, and to explore the effect of early-onset intensive use (drunkenness, daily smoking, high on cannabis) on profiles of illicit drug use. METHODS: Baseline data from a representative sample of 5,831 young Swiss men in the ongoing Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors were used. Substance use (alcohol, tobacco, cannabis and 15 types of other illicit drug) and age of onset of intensive use were assessed. The Item Response Theory (IRT) and prevalence rates at different ages of onset were used to reveal different profiles of illicit drug use. RESULTS: In addition to cannabis, there were two profiles of other illicit drug use: (a) "softer" drug users (uppers, hallucinogens and inhaled drugs), among which ecstasy had the highest discriminatory potential (IRT slope = 4.68, standard error (SE) = 0.48; p <0.001); and (b) "harder" drug users (heroin, ketamine, gamma-hydroxybutyrate/gamma-hydroxylactone, research chemicals, crystal meth and spice), among which ketamine had the highest discriminatory potential (slope = 4.05; SE = 0.63; p <0.001). Onset of intensive use at the age of 12 years or younger also discriminated between these two profiles. CONCLUSION: Both the IRT model and the effect of onset of intensive use enabled two groups of illicit drugs to be identified. In particular, very early onset (at 12 years or younger) intensive use of any substance was a marker for later use of the second group of drugs.

High occurrence of hepatitis E virus in samples from wastewater treatment plants in Switzerland and comparison with other enteric viruses.

Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is responsible for many enterically transmitted viral hepatitides around the world. It is currently one of the waterborne diseases of global concern. In industrialized countries, HEV appears to be more common than previously thought, even if it is rarely virulent. In Switzerland, seroprevalence studies revealed that HEV is endemic, but no information was available on its environmental spread. The aim of this study was to investigate -using qPCR- the occurrence and concentration of HEV and three other viruses (norovirus genogroup II, human adenovirus-40 and porcine adenovirus) in influents and effluents of 31 wastewater treatment plants (WWTPs) in Switzerland. Low concentrations of HEV were detected in 40 out of 124 WWTP influent samples, showing that HEV is commonly present in this region. The frequency of HEV occurrence was higher in summer than in winter. No HEV was detected in WWTP effluent samples, which indicates a low risk of environmental contamination. HEV occurrence and concentrations were lower than those of norovirus and adenovirus. The autochthonous HEV genotype 3 was found in all positive samples, but a strain of the non-endemic and highly pathogenic HEV genotype I was isolated in one sample, highlighting the possibility of environmental circulation of this genotype. A porcine fecal marker (porcine adenovirus) was not detected in HEV positive samples, indicating that swine are not the direct source of HEV present in wastewater. Further investigations will be necessary to determine the reservoirs and the routes of dissemination of HEV.

The Impact of CAROtid plaque Screening on Smoking (CAROSS) cessation and control of other cardiovascular risk factors: rationale and design of a randomized controlled trial

BACKGROUND: Screening tests for subclinical cardiovascular disease, such as markers of atherosclerosis, are increasingly used in clinical prevention to identify individuals at high cardiovascular risk. Being aware of these test results might also enhance patient motivation to change unhealthy behaviors but the effectiveness of such a screening strategy has been poorly studied. METHODS: The CAROtid plaque Screening trial on Smoking cessation (CAROSS) is a randomized controlled trial in 530 regular smokers aged 40-70 years to test the hypothesis that carotid plaque screening will influence smokers' behavior with an increased rate of smoking cessation (primary outcome) and an improved control of other cardiovascular risk factors (secondary outcomes) after 1-year follow-up. All smokers will receive a brief advice for smoking cessation,and will subsequently be randomly assigned to either the intervention group (with plaques screening) or the control group (without plaque screening). Carotid ultrasound will be conducted with a standard protocol. Smokers with at least one carotid plaque will receive pictures of their own plaques with a structured explanation on the general significance of plaques. To ensure equal contact conditions, smokers not undergoing ultrasound and those without plaque will receive a relevant explanation on the risks associated with tobacco smoking. Study outcomes will be compared between smokers randomized to plaque screening and smokers not submitted to plaque screening. SUMMARY: This will be the first trial to assess the impact of carotid plaque screening on 1-year smoking cessation rates and levels of control of other cardiovascular risk factors.

Reasons to use e-cigarettes and associations with other substances among adolescents in Switzerland.

BACKGROUND: The objectives of this research were to describe the main reason(s) why adolescents use electronic cigarettes, to assess how e-cigarette experimenters and users differ based on personal characteristics, and to determine whether its use is associated with the use of other substances among a representative sample of youths in Switzerland. METHODS: A representative sample of 621 youths (308 females) was divided into never users (n=353), experimenters (Only once, n=120) and users (Several times, n=148) of e-cigarettes. Groups were compared on socio-demographic data and current smoking, alcohol misuse and cannabis use. Reasons for e-cigarette use were compared between experimenters and users. A multinomial regression was performed using never users as the reference category. RESULTS: Forty-three percent had ever tried e-cigarettes, and the main reason was curiosity. Compared to never users, experimenters were more likely to be out of school (Relative Risk Ratio [RRR]: 2.68) and to misuse alcohol (RRR: 2.08), while users were more likely to be male (RRR: 2.75), to be vocational students (RRR: 2.30) or out of school (RRR: 3.48) and to use any of the studied substances (tobacco, RRR: 5.26; alcohol misuse, RRR: 2.71; cannabis use, RRR: 30.2). CONCLUSIONS: Although often still part of adolescent experimentation, e-cigarettes are becoming increasingly popular among adolescents and they should become part of health providers' standard substance use screening. As health providers (and especially paediatricians) do not seem to have high levels of knowledge and, consequently, little comfort in discussing e-cigarettes, training in this domain should be available to them.

Effects of sarcoptic mange on the behaviour of the red fox and influence on other fox-born zoonoses in Geneva, Switzerland

Résumé : Une épidémie de gale sarcoptique (Sarcoptes scabiei) touche le canton de Genève depuis 1996. Nous avons étudié l'impact de cette maladie sur différents caractères comportementaux du renard roux (Vulpes vulpes) : l'écologie alimentaire, les comportements spatiaux et l'activité, ainsi que les contacts sociaux. Nous avons également évalué si la gale pouvait influencer la composition et la transmission de la communauté helminthique intestinale du renard. En effet, cette espèce est l'hôte de parasites qui sont liés à des zoonoses importantes, en particulier le ténia échinocoque du renard (Echinococcus multilocularis) pour lequel Genève est considérée comme une zone de haute endémie. Durant 5 années, des carcasses de renards ont été récoltées sur l'ensemble du canton. Nous les avons disséquées et avons conservé différents échantillons pour des analyses ultérieures. Des données sur le poids, l'âge et le statut reproductif des femelles ont ainsi pu être obtenues. Les contenus stomacaux ont été analysés pour déterminer le régime alimentaire, les intestins pour collecter des helminthes, des échantillons de sang pour faire des sérologies et des échantillons de peau pour récupérer les sarcoptes. Des renards sauvages ont également été capturés et équipés de colliers émetteurs afin de déterminer leur activité et leur utilisation de l'espace. Finalement, nous avons réalisé des affûts sur des terriers et des observations nocturnes à l'aide d'un détecteur thermique afin d'étudier les contacts sociaux. Nous avons ensuite considéré tous ces aspects pour comparer les renards galeux aux individus sains. Trois catégories de gale ont été prises en compte selon l'importance de l'infection. L'épidémie a traversé le canton en 8 ans environ et elle a provoqué une forte diminution des populations de renard. Les animaux malades étaient caractérisés par un poids réduit, ils utilisaient des domaines vitaux réduits et présentaient un rythme d'activité irrégulier. En ce qui concerne le régime alimentaire, les renards galeux avaient souvent des estomacs vides ou contenant peu d'aliments d'origine animale. Cette réduction de l'alimentation ne semble pas seulement être liée à des capacités de prédation réduite, mais également à un désintérêt face à la nourriture. Tous les changements de comportement cités étaient plus marqués chez les animaux soumis à une forte infestation. Dix taxons d'helminthes ont été identifiés dans les intestins des renards analysés. Deux d'entre eux représentent un risque de santé publique: Echinococcus multilocularis et Toxocara carvis. Pour ces helminthes, nous n'avons pas identifié de différences de prévalence entre les renards galeux et les animaux sains, mais la charge parasitaire était significativement supérieure chez les individus galeux, en particulier ceux souffrant d'une infestation importante. Ceci est probablement lié à une susceptibilité accrue des individus qui présentent une condition physique amoindrie et des défenses immunitaire affaiblies. Selon nos résultats, nous pouvons conclure que la gale induit des changements comportementaux importants et que ces changements ont une influence potentielle sur la transmission de la gale elle-même, mais également sur la transmission du reste de la communauté parasitaire de l'hôte. Les individus qui souffrent d'une infestation importante sont susceptibles de provoquer une contamination de l'environnement accrue en ce qui concerne des helminthes pouvant provoquer des zoonoses. La gale apparaît être un facteur à ne pas négliger dans le cadre de la gestion de la faune sauvage, mais également en ce qui concerne des problématiques de santé publique. Summary An epidemic outbreak of sarcoptic mange (Sarcoptes scabiei) has struck the canton of Geneva since 1996. The impact of the disease on various behavioural traits of the main host, the red fox (Vulpes vulpes), was investigated: feeding ecology, spatial behaviour and activity, and social contacts. We also evaluated if mange might have an influence on the composition and transmission of the intestinal helminth community of foxes. Indeed, this species is host of parasites with potential zoonotic importance, particularly the fox tapeworm (Echinococcus multilocularis) for which Geneva is reported as endemic area. During 5 years, red fox carcasses have been collected throughout the canton. They were then dissected and various samples conserved for further analysis. Data on weight, age, and reproductive status of females were obtained. Stomach content were analysed for diet analysis, intestines to recover helminths, blood to proceed to ELISAs and skin samples to check for the presence of Sarcoptes mites. Further, wild foxes were captured and fitted with transmitters in order to determine their activity pattern and space use. Finally, we proceeded to direct observations at dens and using a thermal imaging sensor at night to gain information about social contacts. A comparison between healthy and mangy foxes was made for all these aspects. Three categories of mangy foxes were considered from moderately to severely infected. The epidemic wave crossed the canton in about 8 years and induced a significant reduction in fox densities. Mangy individuals appeared to have reduced body weights, to use more restricted home ranges and exhibited an irregular activity pattern. Regarding food, sick foxes often had empty stomachs and consumed less food items of animal origin. The reduction in food intake appeared to be linked not only to a reduced ability to hunt, but also to a reduced interest in food. The changes observed were particularly pronounced in individuals with severe infestation. Ten helminth taxa were recovered from the intestines on the analysed fox carcasses. Two of them have an importance with regard to human public health: Echinococcus multilocularis and Toxocara cams. The prevalence of these helminths did not differ between healthy and mangy foxes, however the worm burden was significantly higher in mangy foxes, particularly those with severe mange. This is probably linked to an increased susceptibility in individuals with a reduced body condition and weakened immune defences. From our observations, we can conclude that mange induces pronounced behavioural changes in the red fox, and that those changes influence the transmission risks of mange itself, but also of the rest of the parasite community of the host. Individuals with severe mange are for example likely to increase the environment contamination of free living stages of helminths with zoonotic importance. Mange appears thus to represent a factor not to be neglected for the management of wild species and for public health issues.

Vitellogenin B2 gene in Xenopus laevis: isolation, in vitro transcription and relation to other vitellogenin genes.

The isolation of the four Xenopus laevis vitellogenin genes has been completed by the purification from a DNA library of the B2 gene together with its flanking sequences. The overlapping DNA fragments analyzed cover 34 kilobases. The B2 gene which has a length of 17.5 kilobases was characterized by heteroduplex and R-loop mapping in the electron microscope and by in vitro transcription in a HeLa whole-cell extract. Its structural organization is compared with that of the closely related B1 gene. The mRNA-coding sequence of about 6 kilobases is interrupted 34 times in the B1 gene and 33 times in the B2 gene. Sequence homology between the two genes was not only found in exons. In addition, 54% of the intron sequences as well as 63% and 48.5% respectively of the 5' and 3' flanking sequences, show enough homology to form stable duplexes. These findings are compared with earlier results obtained with the two other closely related members of the vitellogenin gene family, the A1 and the A2 genes.

Coevolution of adaptive technology, maladaptive culture and population size in a producer-scrounger game.

Technology (i.e. tools, methods of cultivation and domestication, systems of construction and appropriation, machines) has increased the vital rates of humans, and is one of the defining features of the transition from Malthusian ecological stagnation to a potentially perpetual rising population growth. Maladaptations, on the other hand, encompass behaviours, customs and practices that decrease the vital rates of individuals. Technology and maladaptations are part of the total stock of culture carried by the individuals in a population. Here, we develop a quantitative model for the coevolution of cumulative adaptive technology and maladaptive culture in a 'producer-scrounger' game, which can also usefully be interpreted as an 'individual-social' learner interaction. Producers (individual learners) are assumed to invent new adaptations and maladaptations by trial-and-error learning, insight or deduction, and they pay the cost of innovation. Scroungers (social learners) are assumed to copy or imitate (cultural transmission) both the adaptations and maladaptations generated by producers. We show that the coevolutionary dynamics of producers and scroungers in the presence of cultural transmission can have a variety of effects on population carrying capacity. From stable polymorphism, where scroungers bring an advantage to the population (increase in carrying capacity), to periodic cycling, where scroungers decrease carrying capacity, we find that selection-driven cultural innovation and transmission may send a population on the path of indefinite growth or to extinction.

Device-specific weighted T-score for two quantitative ultrasounds: operational propositions for the management of osteoporosis for 65 years and older women in Switzerland.

The World Health Organization (WHO) criteria for the diagnosis of osteoporosis are mainly applicable for dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) measurements at the spine and hip levels. There is a growing demand for cheaper devices, free of ionizing radiation such as promising quantitative ultrasound (QUS). In common with many other countries, QUS measurements are increasingly used in Switzerland without adequate clinical guidelines. The T-score approach developed for DXA cannot be applied to QUS, although well-conducted prospective studies have shown that ultrasound could be a valuable predictor of fracture risk. As a consequence, an expert committee named the Swiss Quality Assurance Project (SQAP, for which the main mission is the establishment of quality assurance procedures for DXA and QUS in Switzerland) was mandated by the Swiss Association Against Osteoporosis (ASCO) in 2000 to propose operational clinical recommendations for the use of QUS in the management of osteoporosis for two QUS devices sold in Switzerland. Device-specific weighted "T-score" based on the risk of osteoporotic hip fractures as well as on the prediction of DXA osteoporosis at the hip, according to the WHO definition of osteoporosis, were calculated for the Achilles (Lunar, General Electric, Madison, Wis.) and Sahara (Hologic, Waltham, Mass.) ultrasound devices. Several studies (totaling a few thousand subjects) were used to calculate age-adjusted odd ratios (OR) and area under the receiver operating curve (AUC) for the prediction of osteoporotic fracture (taking into account a weighting score depending on the design of the study involved in the calculation). The ORs were 2.4 (1.9-3.2) and AUC 0.72 (0.66-0.77), respectively, for the Achilles, and 2.3 (1.7-3.1) and 0.75 (0.68-0.82), respectively, for the Sahara device. To translate risk estimates into thresholds for clinical application, 90% sensitivity was used to define low fracture and low osteoporosis risk, and a specificity of 80% was used to define subjects as being at high risk of fracture or having osteoporosis at the hip. From the combination of the fracture model with the hip DXA osteoporotic model, we found a T-score threshold of -1.2 and -2.5 for the stiffness (Achilles) determining, respectively, the low- and high-risk subjects. Similarly, we found a T-score at -1.0 and -2.2 for the QUI index (Sahara). Then a screening strategy combining QUS, DXA, and clinical factors for the identification of women needing treatment was proposed. The application of this approach will help to minimize the inappropriate use of QUS from which the whole field currently suffers.

Altruism, dispersal, and phenotype-matching kin recognition.

We investigate the coevolution between philopatry and altruism in island-model populations when kin recognition occurs through phenotype matching. In saturated environments, a good discrimination ability is a necessary prerequisite for the emergence of sociality. Discrimination decreases not only with the average phenotypic similarity between immigrants and residents (i.e., with environmental homogeneity and past gene flow) but also with the sampling variance of similarity distributions (a negative function of the number of traits sampled). Whether discrimination should rely on genetically or environmentally determined traits depends on the apportionment of phenotypic variance and, in particular, on the relative values of e (the among-group component of environmental variance) and r (the among-group component of genetic variance, which also measures relatedness among group members). If r exceeds e, highly heritable cues do better. Discrimination and altruism, however, remain low unless philopatry is enforced by ecological constraints. If e exceeds r, by contrast, nonheritable traits do better. High e values improve discrimination drastically and thus have the potential to drive sociality, even in the absence of ecological constraints. The emergence of sociality thus can be facilitated by enhancing e, which we argue is the main purpose of cue standardization within groups, as observed in many social insects, birds, and mammals, including humans.

The genetical theory of social behaviour.

We survey the population genetic basis of social evolution, using a logically consistent set of arguments to cover a wide range of biological scenarios. We start by reconsidering Hamilton's (Hamilton 1964 J. Theoret. Biol. 7, 1-16 (doi:10.1016/0022-5193(64)90038-4)) results for selection on a social trait under the assumptions of additive gene action, weak selection and constant environment and demography. This yields a prediction for the direction of allele frequency change in terms of phenotypic costs and benefits and genealogical concepts of relatedness, which holds for any frequency of the trait in the population, and provides the foundation for further developments and extensions. We then allow for any type of gene interaction within and between individuals, strong selection and fluctuating environments and demography, which may depend on the evolving trait itself. We reach three conclusions pertaining to selection on social behaviours under broad conditions. (i) Selection can be understood by focusing on a one-generation change in mean allele frequency, a computation which underpins the utility of reproductive value weights; (ii) in large populations under the assumptions of additive gene action and weak selection, this change is of constant sign for any allele frequency and is predicted by a phenotypic selection gradient; (iii) under the assumptions of trait substitution sequences, such phenotypic selection gradients suffice to characterize long-term multi-dimensional stochastic evolution, with almost no knowledge about the genetic details underlying the coevolving traits. Having such simple results about the effect of selection regardless of population structure and type of social interactions can help to delineate the common features of distinct biological processes. Finally, we clarify some persistent divergences within social evolution theory, with respect to exactness, synergies, maximization, dynamic sufficiency and the role of genetic arguments.

Emergence of Cooperation on Static and Dynamic Networks

Game theory is a branch of applied mathematics used to analyze situation where two or more agents are interacting. Originally it was developed as a model for conflicts and collaborations between rational and intelligent individuals. Now it finds applications in social sciences, eco- nomics, biology (particularly evolutionary biology and ecology), engineering, political science, international relations, computer science, and philosophy. Networks are an abstract representation of interactions, dependencies or relationships. Net- works are extensively used in all the fields mentioned above and in many more. Many useful informations about a system can be discovered by analyzing the current state of a network representation of such system. In this work we will apply some of the methods of game theory to populations of agents that are interconnected. A population is in fact represented by a network of players where one can only interact with another if there is a connection between them. In the first part of this work we will show that the structure of the underlying network has a strong influence on the strategies that the players will decide to adopt to maximize their utility. We will then introduce a supplementary degree of freedom by allowing the structure of the population to be modified along the simulations. This modification allows the players to modify the structure of their environment to optimize the utility that they can obtain.

The stationary distribution of a continuously varying strategy in a class-structured population under mutation-selection-drift balance.

Many traits and/or strategies expressed by organisms are quantitative phenotypes. Because populations are of finite size and genomes are subject to mutations, these continuously varying phenotypes are under the joint pressure of mutation, natural selection and random genetic drift. This article derives the stationary distribution for such a phenotype under a mutation-selection-drift balance in a class-structured population allowing for demographically varying class sizes and/or changing environmental conditions. The salient feature of the stationary distribution is that it can be entirely characterized in terms of the average size of the gene pool and Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. The exploration of the phenotypic space varies exponentially with the cumulative inclusive fitness effect over state space, which determines an adaptive landscape. The peaks of the landscapes are those phenotypes that are candidate evolutionary stable strategies and can be determined by standard phenotypic selection gradient methods (e.g. evolutionary game theory, kin selection theory, adaptive dynamics). The curvature of the stationary distribution provides a measure of the stability by convergence of candidate evolutionary stable strategies, and it is evaluated explicitly for two biological scenarios: first, a coordination game, which illustrates that, for a multipeaked adaptive landscape, stochastically stable strategies can be singled out by letting the size of the gene pool grow large; second, a sex-allocation game for diploids and haplo-diploids, which suggests that the equilibrium sex ratio follows a Beta distribution with parameters depending on the features of the genetic system.