Probabilistic evidential assessment of gunshot residue particle evidence (Part I): likelihood ratio calculation and case pre-assessment using Bayesian networks

Well developed experimental procedures currently exist for retrieving and analyzing particle evidence from hands of individuals suspected of being associated with the discharge of a firearm. Although analytical approaches (e.g. automated Scanning Electron Microscopy with Energy Dispersive X-ray (SEM-EDS) microanalysis) allow the determination of the presence of elements typically found in gunshot residue (GSR) particles, such analyses provide no information about a given particle's actual source. Possible origins for which scientists may need to account for are a primary exposure to the discharge of a firearm or a secondary transfer due to a contaminated environment. In order to approach such sources of uncertainty in the context of evidential assessment, this paper studies the construction and practical implementation of graphical probability models (i.e. Bayesian networks). These can assist forensic scientists in making the issue tractable within a probabilistic perspective. The proposed models focus on likelihood ratio calculations at various levels of detail as well as case pre-assessment.

A genome-wide screen for interactions reveals a new locus on 4p15 modifying the effect of waist-to-hip ratio on total cholesterol.

Recent genome-wide association (GWA) studies described 95 loci controlling serum lipid levels. These common variants explain ∼25% of the heritability of the phenotypes. To date, no unbiased screen for gene-environment interactions for circulating lipids has been reported. We screened for variants that modify the relationship between known epidemiological risk factors and circulating lipid levels in a meta-analysis of genome-wide association (GWA) data from 18 population-based cohorts with European ancestry (maximum N = 32,225). We collected 8 further cohorts (N = 17,102) for replication, and rs6448771 on 4p15 demonstrated genome-wide significant interaction with waist-to-hip-ratio (WHR) on total cholesterol (TC) with a combined P-value of 4.79×10(-9). There were two potential candidate genes in the region, PCDH7 and CCKAR, with differential expression levels for rs6448771 genotypes in adipose tissue. The effect of WHR on TC was strongest for individuals carrying two copies of G allele, for whom a one standard deviation (sd) difference in WHR corresponds to 0.19 sd difference in TC concentration, while for A allele homozygous the difference was 0.12 sd. Our findings may open up possibilities for targeted intervention strategies for people characterized by specific genomic profiles. However, more refined measures of both body-fat distribution and metabolic measures are needed to understand how their joint dynamics are modified by the newly found locus.

Molar substitution and C2/C6 ratio of hydroxyethyl starch: influence of blood coagulation

Résumé Cette étude a démontré l'effet individuel sur la coagulation sanguine humaine des deux principales caractéristiques de la molécule d'hydroxyéthylamidon (HES) : la substitution molaire et le rapport C2/C6. L'analyse par thrombélastographe (TEG®) indique que la molécule de HES dont la substitution molaire est de 0.42 et le rapport C2/C6 de 2.7 a le moins d'effet sur la coagulation sanguine chez l'être humain. Objectifs de l'étude Le développement d'hydroxyéthylamidons (HES) qui ont à la fois peu d'impact sur la coagulation sanguine et une longue persistance intravasculaire est d'un grand intérêt clinique. Une précédente étude in vitro a démontré qu'une solution de HES de haut poids moléculaire et de bas degré de substitution molaire ne compromettait pas plus la coagulation sanguine qu'une solution HES de poids moléculaire moyen (1). La présente étude examine l'effet individuel de la substitution molaire et du rapport C2/C6 d'une solution de HES de haut poids moléculaire (700 kDa) sur la coagulation sanguine. Matériel et méthode Nous avons prélevé du sang chez 30 adultes en bonne santé; le sang a été mélangé avec 6 solutions de HES qui diffèrent par leur degré de substitution molaire (0.42 et 0.51) et leur rapport C2/C6 (2.7, 7 et 14) à trois degrés de dilution : 20%, 40% et 60%. Les échantillons ont ensuite été analysés par thrombélastographe. Les données ont été étudiées par analyse de variance à trois voies pour mesures répétées sur une voie (dilution). Résultats Plus la substitution molaire est élevée, plus la coagulation sanguine est compromise et ce concernant tous les paramètres du TEG® (tous les p sont < à 0.05). La solution HES avec le rapport C2/C6 le plus bas a l'effet le moins prononcé sur le temps r (p<0.001), l'angle α (p=0.003) et l'Index de Coagulation CI (p<0.001) ; on n'a pas observé d'effet sur le temps k (p=0.513) et l'amplitude maximale (p=0.699) concernant ce paramètre. Conclusion L'analyse par thrombélastographe révèle qu'une molécule de HES avec une substitution molaire de 0.42 et un rapport C2/C6 de 2.7 a un effet minimal sur la coagulation sanguine humaine in vitro.

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Spontaneous viral clearance, viral load, and genotype distribution of hepatitis C virus (HCV) in HIV-infected patients with anti-HCV antibodies in Europe.

BACKGROUND: Variables influencing serum hepatitis C virus (HCV) RNA levels and genotype distribution in individuals with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection are not well known, nor are factors determining spontaneous clearance after exposure to HCV in this population. METHODS: All HCV antibody (Ab)-positive patients with HIV infection in the EuroSIDA cohort who had stored samples were tested for serum HCV RNA, and HCV genotyping was done for subjects with viremia. Logistic regression was used to identify variables associated with spontaneous HCV clearance and HCV genotype 1. RESULTS: Of 1940 HCV Ab-positive patients, 1496 (77%) were serum HCV RNA positive. Injection drug users (IDUs) were less likely to have spontaneously cleared HCV than were homosexual men (20% vs. 39%; adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 0.36 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 0.24-0.53]), whereas patients positive for hepatitis B surface antigen (HBsAg) were more likely to have spontaneously cleared HCV than were those negative for HBsAg (43% vs. 21%; aOR, 2.91 [95% CI, 1.94-4.38]). Of patients with HCV viremia, 786 (53%) carried HCV genotype 1, and 53 (4%), 440 (29%), and 217 (15%) carried HCV genotype 2, 3, and 4, respectively. A greater HCV RNA level was associated with a greater chance of being infected with HCV genotype 1 (aOR, 1.60 per 1 log higher [95% CI, 1.36-1.88]). CONCLUSIONS: More than three-quarters of the HIV- and HCV Ab-positive patients in EuroSIDA showed active HCV replication. Viremia was more frequent in IDUs and, conversely, was less common in HBsAg-positive patients. Of the patients with HCV viremia analyzed, 53% were found to carry HCV genotype 1, and this genotype was associated with greater serum HCV RNA levels.

Ecological-niche factor analysis: how to compute habitat-suitability maps without absence data?

We propose a multivariate approach to the study of geographic species distribution which does not require absence data. Building on Hutchinson's concept of the ecological niche, this factor analysis compares, in the multidimensional space of ecological variables, the distribution of the localities where the focal species was observed to a reference set describing the whole study area. The first factor extracted maximizes the marginality of the focal species, defined as the ecological distance between the species optimum and the mean habitat within the reference area. The other factors maximize the specialization of this focal species, defined as the ratio of the ecological variance in mean habitat to that observed for the focal species. Eigenvectors and eigenvalues are readily interpreted and can be used to build habitat-suitability maps. This approach is recommended in Situations where absence data are not available (many data banks), unreliable (most cryptic or rare species), or meaningless (invaders). We provide an illustration and validation of the method for the alpine ibex, a species reintroduced in Switzerland which presumably has not yet recolonized its entire range.

Maternal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls and the secondary sex ratio: an occupational cohort study.

Background: Though commercial production of polychlorinated biphenyls was banned in the United States in 1977, exposure continues due to their environmental persistence. Several studies have examined the associationbetween environmental polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and modulations of the secondary sex ratio, with conflicting results.Objective: Our objective was to evaluate the association between maternal preconceptional occupational polychlorinated biphenyl exposure and the secondary sex ratio.Methods: We examined primipara singleton births of 2595 women, who worked in three capacitor plants at least one year during the period polychlorinated biphenyls were used. Cumulative estimated maternal occupationalpolychlorinated biphenyl exposure at the time of the infant's conception was calculated from plant-specific job exposure matrices. A logistic regression analysis was used to evaluate the association between maternalpolychlorinated biphenyl exposure and male sex at birth (yes/no).Results: Maternal body mass index at age 20, smoking status, and race did not vary between those occupationally exposed and those unexposed before the child's conception. Polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed mothers were, however, more likely to have used oral contraceptives and to have been older at the birth of their first child than non-occupationally exposed women. Among 1506 infants liveborn to polychlorinated biphenyl-exposedprimiparous women, 49.8% were male; compared to 49.9% among those not exposed (n = 1089). Multivariate analyses controlling for mother's age and year of birth found no significant association between the odds of amale birth and mother's cumulative estimated polychlorinated biphenyl exposure to time of conception.Conclusions: Based on these data, we find no evidence of altered sex ratio among children born to primiparous polychlorinated biphenyl-exposed female workers.

Inbreeding and selection on sex ratio in the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus.

ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: Local Mate Competition (LMC) theory predicts a female should produce a more female-biased sex ratio if her sons compete with each other for mates. Because it provides quantitative predictions that can be experimentally tested, LMC is a textbook example of the predictive power of evolutionary theory. A limitation of many earlier studies in the field is that the population structure and mating system of the studied species are often estimated only indirectly. Here we use microsatellites to characterize the levels of inbreeding of the bark beetle Xylosandrus germanus, a species where the level of LMC is expected to be high. RESULTS: For three populations studied, genetic variation for our genetic markers was very low, indicative of an extremely high level of inbreeding (FIS = 0.88). There was also strong linkage disequilibrium between microsatellite loci and a very strong genetic differentiation between populations. The data suggest that matings among non-siblings are very rare (3%), although sex ratios from X. germanus in both the field and the laboratory have suggested more matings between non-sibs, and so less intense LMC. CONCLUSIONS: Our results confirm that caution is needed when inferring mating systems from sex ratio data, especially when a lack of biological detail means the use of overly simple forms of the model of interest.

The INTERMED questionnaire for predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program for chronic low back pain.

OBJECTIVES: To evaluate the performance of the INTERMED questionnaire score, alone or combined with other criteria, in predicting return to work after a multidisciplinary rehabilitation program in patients with non-specific chronic low back pain. METHODS: The INTERMED questionnaire is a biopsychosocial assessment and clinical classification tool that separates heterogeneous populations into subgroups according to case complexity. We studied 88 patients with chronic low back pain who followed an intensive multidisciplinary rehabilitation program on an outpatient basis. Before the program, we recorded the INTERMED score, radiological abnormalities, subjective pain severity, and sick leave duration. Associations between these variables and return to full-time work within 3 months after the end of the program were evaluated using one-sided Fisher tests and univariate logistic regression followed by multivariate logistic regression. RESULTS: The univariate analysis showed a significant association between the INTERMED score and return to work (P<0.001; odds ratio, 0.90; 95% confidence interval, 0.86-0.96). In the multivariate analysis, prediction was best when the INTERMED score and sick leave duration were used in combination (P=0.03; odds ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.25-0.93). CONCLUSION: The INTERMED questionnaire is useful for evaluating patients with chronic low back pain. It could be used to improve the selection of patients for intensive multidisciplinary programs, thereby improving the quality of care, while reducing healthcare costs.

Prevalence and predictors of suicide attempt in an incidence cohort of 661 young people with first-episode psychosis

OBJECTIVES: Studies investigating suicidal behaviour in psychosis rarely focus on incidence cohorts of first-episode patients. This is important, because patients who refuse study participation have higher rates of comorbid substance use disorders and longer duration of untreated psychosis as well as worse course illness, variables potentially linked to higher prevalence of suicidal behaviour. The aims of the present study were therefore to examine the prevalence and predictors of suicide and suicide attempt before and during the first 18-24 months of treatment. METHOD: A retrospective file audit of 661 patients was carried out. RESULTS: Six patients (0.9%) died by suicide, 93 (14.3%) attempted suicide prior to entry, and 57 (8.7%) did so during treatment. Predictors of suicide attempt were: previous attempt (odds ratio (OR)=45.54, 95% confidence interval (CI)=9.46-219.15), sexual abuse (OR=8.46, 95%CI=1.88-38.03), comorbid polysubstance (OR=13.63, 95%CI=2.58-71.99), greater insight (OR=0.17, 95%CI=0.06-0.49), lower baseline Global Assessment of Functioning Scale and Scale of Occupational and Functional Assessment score (OR=0.96, 95%CI=0.62-0.91; OR=0.98, 95%CI=0.95-0.99), and longer time in treatment (OR=1.05, 95%CI=1.03-1.08). CONCLUSIONS: The prevalence of suicidal behaviour was high, indicating that suicidal behaviour in incidence populations is higher than in non-epidemiological cohorts of first-episode patients. The rate of repetition of suicide attempt among the sample, however, was lower than expected, suggesting that specialist services can play a role in reducing suicide risk.

Association of electrocardiogram abnormalities and incident heart failure events.

Unless effective preventive strategies are implemented, aging of the population will result in a significant worsening of the heart failure (HF) epidemic. Few data exist on whether baseline electrocardiographic (ECG) abnormalities can refine risk prediction for HF. METHODS: We examined a prospective cohort of 2,915 participants aged 70 to 79 years without preexisting HF, enrolled between April 1997 and June 1998 in the Health, Aging, and Body Composition (Health ABC) study. Minnesota Code was used to define major and minor ECG abnormalities at baseline and at year 4 follow-up. Using Cox models, we assessed (1) the association between ECG abnormalities and incident HF and (2) the incremental value of adding ECG to the Health ABC HF Risk Score using the net reclassification index. RESULTS: At baseline, 380 participants (13.0%) had minor, and 620 (21.3%) had major ECG abnormalities. During a median follow-up of 11.4 years, 485 participants (16.6%) developed incident HF. After adjusting for the Health ABC HF Risk Score variables, the hazard ratio (HR) was 1.27 (95% CI 0.96-1.68) for minor and 1.99 (95% CI 1.61-2.44) for major ECG abnormalities. At year 4, 263 participants developed new and 549 had persistent abnormalities; both were associated with increased subsequent HF risk (HR 1.94, 95% CI 1.38-2.72 for new and HR 2.35, 95% CI 1.82-3.02 for persistent ECG abnormalities). Baseline ECG correctly reclassified 10.5% of patients with HF events, 0.8% of those without HF events, and 1.4% of the overall population. The net reclassification index across the Health ABC HF risk categories was 0.11 (95% CI 0.03-0.19). CONCLUSIONS: Among older adults, baseline and new ECG abnormalities are independently associated with increased risk of HF. The contribution of ECG screening for targeted prevention of HF should be evaluated in clinical trials.

Sex ratio and Wolbachia infection in the ant Formica exsecta.

Sex allocation data in social Hymenoptera provide some of the best tests of kin selection, parent-offspring conflict and sex ratio theories. However, these studies critically depend on controlling for confounding ecological factors and on identifying all parties that potentially manipulate colony sex ratio. It has been suggested that maternally inherited parasites may influence sex allocation in social Hymenoptera. If the parasites can influence sex allocation, infected colonies are predicted to invest more resources in females than non-infected colonies, because the parasites are transmitted through females but not males. Prime candidates for such sex ratio manipulation are Wolbachia, because these cytoplasmically transmitted bacteria have been shown to affect the sex ratio of host arthropods by cytoplasmic incompatibility, parthenogenesis, male-killing and feminization. In this study, we tested whether Wolbachia infection is associated with colony sex ratio in two populations of the ant Formica exsecta that have been the subject of extensive sex ratio studies. In these populations colonies specialize in the production of one sex or the other. We found that almost all F. exsecta colonies in both populations are infected with Wolbachia. However, in neither population did we find a significant association in the predicted direction between the prevalence of Wolbachia and colony sex ratio. In particular, colonies with a higher proportion of infected workers did not produce more females. Hence, we conclude that Wolbachia does not seem to alter the sex ratio of its hosts as a means to increase transmission rate in these two populations of ants.

Contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of improvised explosives: isotopic study of black powders ans ammonium nitrates

The establishment of legislative rules about explosives in the eighties has reduced the illicit use of military and civilian explosives. However, bomb-makers have rapidly taken advantage of substances easily accessible and intended for licit uses to produce their own explosives. This change in strategy has given rise to an increase of improvised explosive charges, which is moreover assisted by the ease of implementation of the recipes, widely available through open sources. While the nature of the explosive charges has evolved, instrumental methods currently used in routine, although more sensitive than before, have a limited power of discrimination and allow mostly the determination of the chemical nature of the substance. Isotope ratio mass spectrometry (IRMS) has been applied to a wide range of forensic materials. Conclusions drawn from the majority of the studies stress its high power of discrimination. Preliminary studies conducted so far on the isotopic analysis of intact explosives (pre-blast) have shown that samples with the same chemical composition and coming from different sources could be differentiated. The measurement of stable isotope ratios appears therefore as a new and remarkable analytical tool for the discrimination or the identification of a substance with a definite source. However, much research is still needed to assess the validity of the results in order to use them either in an operational prospect or in court. Through the isotopic study of black powders and ammonium nitrates, this research aims at evaluating the contribution of isotope ratio mass spectrometry to the investigation of explosives, both from a pre-blast and from a post-blast approach. More specifically, the goal of the research is to provide additional elements necessary to a valid interpretation of the results, when used in explosives investigation. This work includes a fundamental study on the variability of the isotopic profile of black powder and ammonium nitrate in both space and time. On one hand, the inter-variability between manufacturers and, particularly, the intra-variability within a manufacturer has been studied. On the other hand, the stability of the isotopic profile over time has been evaluated through the aging of these substances exposed to different environmental conditions. The second part of this project considers the applicability of this high-precision technology to traces and residues of explosives, taking account of the characteristics specific to the field, including their sampling, a probable isotopic fractionation during the explosion, and the interferences with the matrix of the site.

Moderate hypercapnia exerts beneficial effects on splanchnic energy metabolism during endotoxemia.

PURPOSE: Low tidal volume ventilation and permissive hypercapnia are required in patients with sepsis complicated by ARDS. The effects of hypercapnia on tissue oxidative metabolism in this setting are unknown. We therefore determined the effects of moderate hypercapnia on markers of systemic and splanchnic oxidative metabolism in an animal model of endotoxemia. METHODS: Anesthetized rats maintained at a PaCO(2) of 30, 40 or 60 mmHg were challenged with endotoxin. A control group (PaCO(2) 40 mmHg) received isotonic saline. Hemodynamic variables, arterial lactate, pyruvate, and ketone bodies were measured at baseline and after 4 h. Tissue adenosine triphosphate (ATP) and lactate were measured in the small intestine and the liver after 4 h. RESULTS: Endotoxin resulted in low cardiac output, increased lactate/pyruvate ratio and decreased ketone body ratio. These changes were not influenced by hypercapnia, but were more severe with hypocapnia. In the liver, ATP decreased and lactate increased independently from PaCO(2) after endotoxin. In contrast, the drop of ATP and the rise in lactate triggered by endotoxin in the intestine were prevented by hypercapnia. CONCLUSIONS: During endotoxemia in rats, moderate hypercapnia prevents the deterioration of tissue energetics in the intestine.

Body size and early growth in appropriate- and large-for-gestational-age infants.

AIMS: To study weight, length, body composition, sleeping energy expenditure (SEE), and respiratory quotient (RQ) at birth and at 5 mo of age in both adequate-for-gestational-age (AGA) and large-for-gestational-age (LGA) subjects; to compare the changes in body weight and body composition adjusting for gender, age, SEE, RQ and several maternal factors; to investigate the contribution of initial SEE and RQ to changes in body weight and body composition. METHODS: Sixty-nine neonates were recruited among term infants in the University Hospital of Verona, Italy. Forty-nine subjects participated until follow-up. At birth and follow-up, weight and length were measured and arm-fat area and arm-muscle area were calculated from triceps and subscapular skinfolds. SEE and RQ were measured by indirect calorimetry. RESULTS: At birth, weight, length, arm-muscle and arm-fat areas were significantly higher in LGA subjects than in AGA subjects. Weight status, SEE and RQ at birth did not explain the relative weight change after adjusting for gestational weight, placental weight, age at follow-up and gender. Arm-fat area and weight/length ratio at birth were negatively associated with relative changes in body weight after adjusting for the above variables (p < 0.05). CONCLUSION: Early growth from birth to 5 mo of life is significantly affected by body size and adiposity at birth. Fatter newborns had a slower growth rate than thinner newborns.