Modelling hydrodynamics in the Rio Parana, Argentina : an evaluation and inter-comparison of reduced-complexity and physics based models applied to a large sand-bed river

Depth-averaged velocities and unit discharges within a 30 km reach of one of the world's largest rivers, the Rio Parana, Argentina, were simulated using three hydrodynamic models with different process representations: a reduced complexity (RC) model that neglects most of the physics governing fluid flow, a two-dimensional model based on the shallow water equations, and a three-dimensional model based on the Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes equations. Row characteristics simulated using all three models were compared with data obtained by acoustic Doppler current profiler surveys at four cross sections within the study reach. This analysis demonstrates that, surprisingly, the performance of the RC model is generally equal to, and in some instances better than, that of the physics based models in terms of the statistical agreement between simulated and measured flow properties. In addition, in contrast to previous applications of RC models, the present study demonstrates that the RC model can successfully predict measured flow velocities. The strong performance of the RC model reflects, in part, the simplicity of the depth-averaged mean flow patterns within the study reach and the dominant role of channel-scale topographic features in controlling the flow dynamics. Moreover, the very low water surface slopes that typify large sand-bed rivers enable flow depths to be estimated reliably in the RC model using a simple fixed-lid planar water surface approximation. This approach overcomes a major problem encountered in the application of RC models in environments characterised by shallow flows and steep bed gradients. The RC model is four orders of magnitude faster than the physics based models when performing steady-state hydrodynamic calculations. However, the iterative nature of the RC model calculations implies a reduction in computational efficiency relative to some other RC models. A further implication of this is that, if used to simulate channel morphodynamics, the present RC model may offer only a marginal advantage in terms of computational efficiency over approaches based on the shallow water equations. These observations illustrate the trade off between model realism and efficiency that is a key consideration in RC modelling. Moreover, this outcome highlights a need to rethink the use of RC morphodynamic models in fluvial geomorphology and to move away from existing grid-based approaches, such as the popular cellular automata (CA) models, that remain essentially reductionist in nature. In the case of the world's largest sand-bed rivers, this might be achieved by implementing the RC model outlined here as one element within a hierarchical modelling framework that would enable computationally efficient simulation of the morphodynamics of large rivers over millennial time scales. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Evaluating effects of spectral training data distribution on continuous field mapping performance

Continuous field mapping has to address two conflicting remote sensing requirements when collecting training data. On one hand, continuous field mapping trains fractional land cover and thus favours mixed training pixels. On the other hand, the spectral signature has to be preferably distinct and thus favours pure training pixels. The aim of this study was to evaluate the sensitivity of training data distribution along fractional and spectral gradients on the resulting mapping performance. We derived four continuous fields (tree, shrubherb, bare, water) from aerial photographs as response variables and processed corresponding spectral signatures from multitemporal Landsat 5 TM data as explanatory variables. Subsequent controlled experiments along fractional cover gradients were then based on generalised linear models. Resulting fractional and spectral distribution differed between single continuous fields, but could be satisfactorily trained and mapped. Pixels with fractional or without respective cover were much more critical than pure full cover pixels. Error distribution of continuous field models was non-uniform with respect to horizontal and vertical spatial distribution of target fields. We conclude that a sampling for continuous field training data should be based on extent and densities in the fractional and spectral, rather than the real spatial space. Consequently, adequate training plots are most probably not systematically distributed in the real spatial space, but cover the gradient and covariate structure of the fractional and spectral space well. (C) 2009 International Society for Photogrammetry and Remote Sensing, Inc. (ISPRS). Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Precision and scaling in morphogen gradient read-out.

Morphogen gradients infer cell fate as a function of cellular position. Experiments in Drosophila embryos have shown that the Bicoid (Bcd) gradient is precise and exhibits some degree of scaling. We present experimental results on the precision of Bcd target genes for embryos with a single, double or quadruple dose of bicoid demonstrating that precision is highest at mid-embryo and position dependent, rather than gene dependent. This confirms that the major contribution to precision is achieved already at the Bcd gradient formation. Modeling this dynamic process, we investigate precision for inter-embryo fluctuations in different parameters affecting gradient formation. Within our modeling framework, the observed precision can only be achieved by a transient Bcd profile. Studying different extensions of our modeling framework reveals that scaling is generally position dependent and decreases toward the posterior pole. Our measurements confirm this trend, indicating almost perfect scaling except for anterior most expression domains, which overcompensate fluctuations in embryo length.

Nd and Sr isotope compositions in modern and fossil bones - Proxies for vertebrate provenance and taphonomy

Rare earth elements (REE), while not essential for the physiologic functions of animals, are ingested and incorporated in ppb concentrations in bones and teeth. Nd isotope compositions of modern bones of animals from isotopically distinct habitats demonstrate that the (143)Nd/(144)Nd of the apatite can be used as a fingerprint for bedrock geology or ambient water mass. This potentially allows the provenance and migration of extant vertebrates to be traced, similar to the use of Sr isotopes. Although REE may be enriched by up to 5 orders of magnitude during diagenesis and recrystallization of bone apatite, in vivo (143)Nd/(144)Nd may be preserved in the inner cortex of fossil bones or enamel. However, tracking the provenance of ancient or extinct vertebrates is possible only for well-preserved archeological and paleontological skeletal remains with in vivo-like Nd contents at the ppb-level. Intra-bone and -tooth REE analysis can be used to screen for appropriate areas. Large intra-bone Nd concentration gradients of 10(1)-10(3) are often measured. Nd concentrations in the inner bone cortex increase over timescales of millions of years, while bone rims may be enriched over millenial timescales. Nevertheless, epsilon(Nd) values are often similar within one epsilon(Nd) unit within a single bone. Larger intra-bone differences in specimens may either reflect a partial preservation of in vivo values or changing epsilon(Nd) values of the diagenetic fluid during fossilization. However, most fossil specimens and the outer rims of bones will record taphonomic (143)Nd/(144)Nd incorporated post mortem during diagenesis. Unlike REE patterns, (143)Nd/(144)Nd are not biased by fractionation processes during REE-uptake into the apatite crystal lattice, hence the epsilon(Nd) value is an important tracer for taphonomy and reworking. Bones and teeth from autochthonous fossil assemblages have small variations of +/- 1 epsilon(Nd) unit only. In contrast, fossil bones and teeth from over 20 different marine and terrestrial fossil sites have a total range of epsilon(Nd) values from -13.0 to 4.9 (n = 80), often matching the composition of the embedding sediment. This implies that the surrounding sediment is the source of Nd in the fossil bones and that the specimens of this study seem not to have been reworked. Differences in epsilon(Nd) values between skeletal remains and embedding sediment may either indicate reworking of fossils and/or a REE-uptake from a diagenetic fluid with non-sediment derived epsilon(Nd) values. The latter often applies to fossil shark teeth, which may preserve paleo-seawater values. Complementary to epsilon(Nd) values, (87)Sr/(86)Sr can help to further constrain the fossil provenance and reworking. (C) 2011 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Note on seismic hazard assessment using gradient of uplift velocities on the Turan Block (Central Asia)

Uplift gradients can provide the location of highly strained zones, which can be considered to be seismic. The Turan block (Central Asia) contains zones with high gradient of uplift velocities, above the threshold 0.04mm km-1year-1. Some of these zones are associated with important seismic activity and others are not correlated with any recent important recorded earthquakes, however, recent faults scarps as well as diverted rivers may indicate a recent tectonic activity. This threshold of gradient is probably a significant rheologic property of the upper crust. On the basis of these considerations the Uzboy river area is proposed as a potential high seismic hazard zone.

Joint inversion of crosshole GPR and seismic traveltime data

Joint inversion of crosshole ground-penetrating radar and seismic data can improve model resolution and fidelity of the resultant individual models. Model coupling obtained by minimizing or penalizing some measure of structural dissimilarity between models appears to be the most versatile approach because only weak assumptions about petrophysical relationships are required. Nevertheless, experimental results and petrophysical arguments suggest that when porosity variations are weak in saturated unconsolidated environments, then radar wave speed is approximately linearly related to seismic wave speed. Under such circumstances, model coupling also can be achieved by incorporating cross-covariances in the model regularization. In two case studies, structural similarity is imposed by penalizing models for which the model cross-gradients are nonzero. A first case study demonstrates improvements in model resolution by comparing the resulting models with borehole information, whereas a second case study uses point-spread functions. Although radar seismic wavespeed crossplots are very similar for the two case studies, the models plot in different portions of the graph, suggesting variances in porosity. Both examples display a close, quasilinear relationship between radar seismic wave speed in unconsolidated environments that is described rather well by the corresponding lower Hashin-Shtrikman (HS) bounds. Combining crossplots of the joint inversion models with HS bounds can constrain porosity and pore structure better than individual inversion results can.

Carotid sparing in t1-t2 no glottic cancer using helical tomotherapy

Objective: To study the dosimetric properties and clinical implementation of a carotid dose sparing irradiation protocol using helical Tomotherapy in early stage laryngeal cancer.Materials and Methods: We have developed a simple treatment planning algorithm for carotid sparing. We have compared carotid and critical organ doses and planned target volume (PTV) dose with our standard laryngeal irradiation protocol. Dose constraints were the following: maximum point dose to the carotids <35 Gy, to the spinal cord <30 Gy, and PTV was covered at >95% of the prescribed dose (70 Gy in 2 Gy per fraction). A daily megavoltage CT was done to account for patient movement and anatomy modification. To date, 7 patients have been treated with this protocol in our department.Results: Our early results showed a significant reduction in the carotid dose with an average maximum dose of 35.8 Gy. The average maximum spinal cord dose was 25.8 Gy. PTV was covered without important "hot spots". Average maximum dose in the PTV was 74.1 Gy with an average absolute maximum dose of 75.2 Gy. To date, the clinical outcomes have been excellent.Conclusion: Helical Tomotherapy allows a significant decrease of carotid dose without dangerous spinal cord overdose. There was no important overdose in the PTV that can potentially increase the late complication risks. Daily control imaging brings added security especially when working with such high-dose gradients. We think further studies and longer follow-up are needed to investigate the clinical outcomes such as the local control rate and the vascular late toxicities.

Fast analysis of doping agents in urine by ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography-quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry I. Screening analysis.

The general strategy to perform anti-doping analyses of urine samples starts with the screening for a wide range of compounds. This step should be fast, generic and able to detect any sample that may contain a prohibited substance while avoiding false negatives and reducing false positive results. The experiments presented in this work were based on ultra-high-pressure liquid chromatography coupled to hybrid quadrupole time-of-flight mass spectrometry. Thanks to the high sensitivity of the method, urine samples could be diluted 2-fold prior to injection. One hundred and three forbidden substances from various classes (such as stimulants, diuretics, narcotics, anti-estrogens) were analysed on a C(18) reversed-phase column in two gradients of 9min (including two 3min equilibration periods) for positive and negative electrospray ionisation and detected in the MS full scan mode. The automatic identification of analytes was based on retention time and mass accuracy, with an automated tool for peak picking. The method was validated according to the International Standard for Laboratories described in the World Anti-Doping Code and was selective enough to comply with the World Anti-Doping Agency recommendations. In addition, the matrix effect on MS response was measured on all investigated analytes spiked in urine samples. The limits of detection ranged from 1 to 500ng/mL, allowing the identification of all tested compounds in urine. When a sample was reported positive during the screening, a fast additional pre-confirmatory step was performed to reduce the number of confirmatory analyses.

Helical tomotherapy in the treatment of anal canal cancer: 3-year clinical experience

Objective: To report a single-center experience treating patients with squamous- cell carcinoma of the anal canal using helical Tomotherapy (HT) and concurrent chemotherapy (CT).Materials/Methods: From October 2007 to February 2011, 55 patients were treated with HT and concurrent CT (5-fluorouracil/capecitabin and mitomycin) for anal squamous-cell carcinoma. All patients underwent computed- tomography-based treatment planning, with pelvic and inguinal nodes receiving 36 Gy in 1.8 Gy/fraction. Following a planned 1-week break, primary tumor site and involved nodes were boosted to a total dose 59.4 Gy in 1.8 Gy/fraction. Dose-volume histograms of several organs at risk (OAR; bladder, small intestine, rectum, femoral heads, penile bulb, external genitalia) were assessed in terms of conformal avoidance. All toxicity was scored according to the CTCAE, v.3.0. HT plans and treatment were implemented using the Tomotherapy, Inc. software and hardware. For dosimetric comparisons, 3D RT and/or IMRT plans were also computed for some of the patients using the CMS planning system, for treatment with 6-18 MV photons and/or electrons with suitable energies from a Siemens Primus linear accelerator equipped with a multileaf collimator.Locoregional control and survival curves were compared with the log-rank test, and multivariate analysis by the Cox model.Results: With 360-degree-of-freedom beam projection, HT has an advantage over other RT techniques (3D or 5-field step-and-shot IMRT). There is significant improvement over 3D or 5-field IMRT plans in terms of dose conformity around the PTV, and dose gradients are steeper outside the target volume, resulting in reduced doses to OARs. Using HT, acute toxicity was acceptable, and seemed to be better than historical standards.Conclusions: Our results suggest that HT combined with concurrent CT for anal cancer is effective and tolerable. Compared to 3D RT or 5-field step-andshot IMRT, there is better conformity around the PTV, and better OAR sparing.

Predicting current and future spatial community patterns of plant functional traits

Community-level patterns of functional traits relate to community assembly and ecosystem functioning. By modelling the changes of different indices describing such patterns - trait means, extremes and diversity in communities - as a function of abiotic gradients, we could understand their drivers and build projections of the impact of global change on the functional components of biodiversity. We used five plant functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area, leaf dry matter content, leaf nitrogen content and seed mass) and non-woody vegetation plots to model several indices depicting community-level patterns of functional traits from a set of abiotic environmental variables (topographic, climatic and edaphic) over contrasting environmental conditions in a mountainous landscape. We performed a variation partitioning analysis to assess the relative importance of these variables for predicting patterns of functional traits in communities, and projected the best models under several climate change scenarios to examine future potential changes in vegetation functional properties. Not all indices of trait patterns within communities could be modelled with the same level of accuracy: the models for mean and extreme values of functional traits provided substantially better predictive accuracy than the models calibrated for diversity indices. Topographic and climatic factors were more important predictors of functional trait patterns within communities than edaphic predictors. Overall, model projections forecast an increase in mean vegetation height and in mean specific leaf area following climate warming. This trend was important at mid elevation particularly between 1000 and 2000 m asl. With this study we showed that topographic, climatic and edaphic variables can successfully model descriptors of community-level patterns of plant functional traits such as mean and extreme trait values. However, which factors determine the diversity of functional traits in plant communities remains unclear and requires more investigations.

Stability of the Helical TomoTherapy Hi·Art II detector for treatment beam irradiations.

The Hi·Art II Helical TomoTherapy (HT) unit is equipped with a built-in onboard MVCT detector used for patient imaging and beam monitoring. Our aim was to study the detector stability for treatment beam measurements. We studied the MVCT detector response with the 6 MV photon beam over time, throughout short-term (during an irradiation) and long-term (two times 50 days) periods. Our results show a coefficient of variation ≤ 1% for detector chambers inside the beam (excluding beam gradients) for short- and long-term response of the MVCT detector. Larger variations were observed in beam gradients and an influence of the X-ray target where degradation was found. The results assume that an 'air scan' procedure is performed daily to recalibrate the detector with the imaging beam. On short term, the detector response stability is comparable to other devices. Long-term measure- ments during two 50-day periods show a good reproducibility. 

Mixing of Rhône River water in Lake Geneva (Switzerland-France) inferred from stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope profiles

Depth profiles were sampled at different locations throughout Lake Geneva on a monthly and seasonal basis over the course of 2 years and analysed for their stable hydrogen and oxygen isotope compositions. The isotopic compositions indicate an isotopic stratification in the metalimnion during summer and fall. This is related to mixing of Rhône River water, which in summer is dominated by snow and glacier melt waters, and lake water, with the latter having a homogenous isotopic composition. The observed interflow layer is 7-15 m thick and can be traced by the distinct stable isotope composition of the water for about 55 km throughout the lake as well as into shallow bay regions. Depth of the interflow layer close to the Rhône River mouth is similar to those previously described based on echo-soundings and turbidity profiles of sediment dispersion. In contrast to previous descriptions of the interflow within Lake Geneva, the stable isotope compositions allow for direct, natural tracing of the Rhône River water even in cases where the turbidity and conductivity measurements do not indicate such an interflow. In addition, the method allows for a quantification of the Rhône River and lake water in the interflow with the fraction of Rhône River water within the interflow estimated to be up to 37% in summer. The isotopic composition further indicates different vertical mixing processes within the two lake basins of Lake Geneva, related to the density gradients and local stability within the water column. The method may be applicable to other lakes in catchments with large differences in the topography as water that originates from high altitudes or glaciers has a distinct oxygen and hydrogen isotope composition compared to other sources of water originating at lower altitudes and/or from direct precipitation over the lake. Stable isotope measurements thus improve the understanding of the circulation of water within the lake, which is fundamental for an evaluation of the water residence times, dissolved pollutant and nutrient transport as well as oxygenation.

Elevation gradient of successful plant traits for colonizing alpine summits under climate change

Upward migration of plant species due to climate change has become evident in several European mountain ranges. It is still, however, unclear whether certain plant traits increase the probability that a species will colonize mountain summits or vanish, and whether these traits differ with elevation. Here, we used data from a repeat survey of the occurrence of plant species on 120 summits, ranging from 2449 to 3418 m asl, in south-eastern Switzerland to identify plant traits that increase the probability of colonization or extinction in the 20th century. Species numbers increased across all plant traits considered. With some traits, however, numbers increased proportionally more. The most successful colonizers seemed to prefer warmer temperatures and well-developed soils. They produced achene fruits and/or seeds with pappus appendages. Conversely, cushion plants and species with capsule fruits were less efficient as colonizers. Observed changes in traits along the elevation gradient mainly corresponded to the natural distribution of traits. Extinctions did not seem to be clearly related to any trait. Our study showed that plant traits varied along both temporal and elevational gradients. While seeds with pappus seemed to be advantageous for colonization, most of the trait changes also mirrored previous gradients of traits along elevation and hence illustrated the general upward migration of plant species. An understanding of the trait characteristics of colonizing species is crucial for predicting future changes in mountain vegetation under climate change.

Socioeconomic groups and cancer risk at death in the Swiss Canton of Vaud.

Data collected by the Cancer Registry of the Canton of Vaud, Switzerland, were used to estimate proportional mortality ratios (PMR) and mortality odds ratios (MOR) for various neoplasms according to social class and sector of occupation (agriculture versus others). Mortality ratios were elevated in lower social classes for cancers of the lung (MOR = 1.18 for social class IV or V vs I or II) and other sites strictly related to tobacco (mouth or pharynx, oesophagus and larynx; MOR = 1.70), and (though not significantly) for cancers of the stomach (MOR = 1.16) and uterus (MOR = 1.30 for cervix and 1.47 for corpus uteri). Furthermore, there was a strong negative social class gradient for thyroid cancer (a neoplasm with particularly elevated incidence and mortality in Switzerland), probably attributable to higher prevalence of iodine deficiency in lower social classes (MOR = 3.17). Positive social class gradients emerged for cancers of the intestines (MOR = 0.77 for social class IV or V), skin (MOR = 0.74) and prostate (MOR = 0.87). Agricultural workers showed decreased ratios for cancers of the lung (MOR = 0.75), cervix uteri (MOR = 0.72) and prostate (MOR = 0.80), and excess mortality from cancers of the upper digestive and respiratory sites (MOR = 1.22), stomach (MOR = 1.18), testis (MOR = 2.05) and lympho-haematopoietic neoplasms, particularly myeloma (MOR = 2.14).

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.