Integrating detection probabilities in species distribution models of amphibians breeding in Mediterranean temporary ponds

Aim  The imperfect detection of species may lead to erroneous conclusions about species-environment relationships. Accuracy in species detection usually requires temporal replication at sampling sites, a time-consuming and costly monitoring scheme. Here, we applied a lower-cost alternative based on a double-sampling approach to incorporate the reliability of species detection into regression-based species distribution modelling.Location  Doñana National Park (south-western Spain).Methods  Using species-specific monthly detection probabilities, we estimated the detection reliability as the probability of having detected the species given the species-specific survey time. Such reliability estimates were used to account explicitly for data uncertainty by weighting each absence. We illustrated how this novel framework can be used to evaluate four competing hypotheses as to what constitutes primary environmental control of amphibian distribution: breeding habitat, aestivating habitat, spatial distribution of surrounding habitats and/or major ecosystems zonation. The study was conducted on six pond-breeding amphibian species during a 4-year period.Results  Non-detections should not be considered equivalent to real absences, as their reliability varied considerably. The occurrence of Hyla meridionalis and Triturus pygmaeus was related to a particular major ecosystem of the study area, where suitable habitat for these species seemed to be widely available. Characteristics of the breeding habitat (area and hydroperiod) were of high importance for the occurrence of Pelobates cultripes and Pleurodeles waltl. Terrestrial characteristics were the most important predictors of the occurrence of Discoglossus galganoi and Lissotriton boscai, along with spatial distribution of breeding habitats for the last species.Main conclusions  We did not find a single best supported hypothesis valid for all species, which stresses the importance of multiscale and multifactor approaches. More importantly, this study shows that estimating the reliability of non-detection records, an exercise that had been previously seen as a naïve goal in species distribution modelling, is feasible and could be promoted in future studies, at least in comparable systems.

The optimal dividend barrier in the Gamma-Omega model

In the traditional actuarial risk model, if the surplus is negative, the company is ruined and has to go out of business. In this paper we distinguish between ruin (negative surplus) and bankruptcy (going out of business), where the probability of bankruptcy is a function of the level of negative surplus. The idea for this notion of bankruptcy comes from the observation that in some industries, companies can continue doing business even though they are technically ruined. Assuming that dividends can only be paid with a certain probability at each point of time, we derive closed-form formulas for the expected discounted dividends until bankruptcy under a barrier strategy. Subsequently, the optimal barrier is determined, and several explicit identities for the optimal value are found. The surplus process of the company is modeled by a Wiener process (Brownian motion).

The stationary distribution of a continuously varying strategy in a class-structured population under mutation-selection-drift balance.

Many traits and/or strategies expressed by organisms are quantitative phenotypes. Because populations are of finite size and genomes are subject to mutations, these continuously varying phenotypes are under the joint pressure of mutation, natural selection and random genetic drift. This article derives the stationary distribution for such a phenotype under a mutation-selection-drift balance in a class-structured population allowing for demographically varying class sizes and/or changing environmental conditions. The salient feature of the stationary distribution is that it can be entirely characterized in terms of the average size of the gene pool and Hamilton's inclusive fitness effect. The exploration of the phenotypic space varies exponentially with the cumulative inclusive fitness effect over state space, which determines an adaptive landscape. The peaks of the landscapes are those phenotypes that are candidate evolutionary stable strategies and can be determined by standard phenotypic selection gradient methods (e.g. evolutionary game theory, kin selection theory, adaptive dynamics). The curvature of the stationary distribution provides a measure of the stability by convergence of candidate evolutionary stable strategies, and it is evaluated explicitly for two biological scenarios: first, a coordination game, which illustrates that, for a multipeaked adaptive landscape, stochastically stable strategies can be singled out by letting the size of the gene pool grow large; second, a sex-allocation game for diploids and haplo-diploids, which suggests that the equilibrium sex ratio follows a Beta distribution with parameters depending on the features of the genetic system.

MIGCLIM: Predicting plant distribution and dispersal in a changing climate

Many studies have forecasted the possible impact of climate change on plant distribution using models based on ecological niche theory. In their basic implementation, niche-based models do not constrain predictions by dispersal limitations. Hence, most niche-based modelling studies published so far have assumed dispersal to be either unlimited or null. However, depending on the rate of climatic change, the landscape fragmentation and the dispersal capabilities of individual species, these assumptions are likely to prove inaccurate, leading to under- or overestimation of future species distributions and yielding large uncertainty between these two extremes. As a result, the concepts of "potentially suitable" and "potentially colonisable" habitat are expected to differ significantly. To quantify to what extent these two concepts can differ, we developed MIGCLIM, a model simulating plant dispersal under climate change and landscape fragmentation scenarios. MIGCLIM implements various parameters, such as dispersal distance, increase in reproductive potential over time, barriers to dispersal or long distance dispersal. Several simulations were run for two virtual species in a study area of the western Swiss Alps, by varying dispersal distance and other parameters. Each simulation covered the hundred-year period 2001-2100 and three different IPCC-based temperature warming scenarios were considered. Our results indicate that: (i) using realistic parameter values, the future potential distributions generated using MIGCLIM can differ significantly (up to more than 95% decrease in colonized surface) from those that ignore dispersal; (ii) this divergence increases both with increasing climate warming and over longer time periods; (iii) the uncertainty associated with the warming scenario can be nearly as large as the one related to dispersal parameters; (iv) accounting for dispersal, even roughly, can importantly reduce uncertainty in projections.

Mass conservative three-dimensional water tracer distribution from Markov chain Monte Carlo inversion of time-lapse ground-penetrating radar data

Time-lapse geophysical measurements are widely used to monitor the movement of water and solutes through the subsurface. Yet commonly used deterministic least squares inversions typically suffer from relatively poor mass recovery, spread overestimation, and limited ability to appropriately estimate nonlinear model uncertainty. We describe herein a novel inversion methodology designed to reconstruct the three-dimensional distribution of a tracer anomaly from geophysical data and provide consistent uncertainty estimates using Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation. Posterior sampling is made tractable by using a lower-dimensional model space related both to the Legendre moments of the plume and to predefined morphological constraints. Benchmark results using cross-hole ground-penetrating radar travel times measurements during two synthetic water tracer application experiments involving increasingly complex plume geometries show that the proposed method not only conserves mass but also provides better estimates of plume morphology and posterior model uncertainty than deterministic inversion results.

Improving the prediction of plant species distribution and community composition by adding edaphic to topo-climatic variables

Questions Soil properties have been widely shown to influence plant growth and distribution. However, the degree to which edaphic variables can improve models based on topo-climatic variables is still unclear. In this study, we tested the roles of seven edaphic variables, namely (1) pH; (2) the content of nitrogen and of (3) phosphorus; (4) silt; (5) sand; (6) clay and (7) carbon-to-nitrogen ratio, as predictors of species distribution models in an edaphically heterogeneous landscape. We also tested how the respective influence of these variables in the models is linked to different ecological and functional species characteristics. Location The Western Alps, Switzerland. Methods With four different modelling techniques, we built models for 115 plant species using topo-climatic variables alone and then topo-climatic variables plus each of the seven edaphic variables, one at a time. We evaluated the contribution of each edaphic variable by assessing the change in predictive power of the model. In a second step, we evaluated the importance of the two edaphic variables that yielded the largest increase in predictive power in one final set of models for each species. Third, we explored the change in predictive power and the importance of variables across plant functional groups. Finally, we assessed the influence of the edaphic predictors on the prediction of community composition by stacking the models for all species and comparing the predicted communities with the observed community. Results Among the set of edaphic variables studied, pH and nitrogen content showed the highest contributions to improvement of the predictive power of the models, as well as the predictions of community composition. When considering all topo-climatic and edaphic variables together, pH was the second most important variable after degree-days. The changes in model results caused by edaphic predictors were dependent on species characteristics. The predictions for the species that have a low specific leaf area, and acidophilic preferences, tolerating low soil pH and high humus content, showed the largest improvement by the addition of pH and nitrogen in the model. Conclusions pH was an important predictor variable for explaining species distribution and community composition of the mountain plants considered in our study. pH allowed more precise predictions for acidophilic species. This variable should not be neglected in the construction of species distribution models in areas with contrasting edaphic conditions.

Characterization and distribution of Pogonomyrmex harvester ant lineages with genetic caste determination.

Genetic caste determination has been described in two populations of Pogonomyrmex harvester ants, each comprising a pair of interbreeding lineages. Queens mate with males of their own and of the alternate lineage and produce two types of diploid offspring, those fertilized by males of the queens' lineage which develop into queens and those fertilized by males of the other lineage which develop into workers. Each of the lineages has been shown to be itself of hybrid origin between the species Pogonomyrmex barbatus and Pogonomyrmex rugosus, which both have typical, environmentally determined caste differentiation. In a large scale genetic survey across 35 sites in Arizona, New Mexico and Texas, we found that genetic caste determination associated with pairs of interbreeding lineages occurred frequently (in 26 out of the 35 sites). Overall, we identified eight lineages with genetic caste determination that always co-occurred in the same complementary lineage pairs. Three of the four lineage pairs appear to have a common origin while their relationship with the fourth remains unclear. The level of genetic differentiation among these eight lineages was significantly higher than the differentiation between P. rugosus and P. barbatus, which questions the appropriate taxonomic status of these genetic lineages. In addition to being genetically isolated from one another, all lineages with genetic caste determination were genetically distinct from P. rugosus and P. barbatus, even when colonies of interbreeding lineages co-occurred with colonies of either putative parent at the same site. Such nearly complete reproductive isolation between the lineages and the species with environmental caste determination might prevent the genetic caste determination system to be swept away by gene flow.

Differential distribution of MAP1A isoforms in the adult mouse barrel cortex and comparison with the serotonin 5-HT2A receptor.

Microtubule-associated protein 1A (MAP1A) is essential during the late differentiation phase of neuronal development. Here, we demonstrated the presence of two MAP1A isoforms with a differential spatial distribution in the adult mouse barrel cortex. Antibody A stained MAP1A in pyramidal and stellate cells, including dendrites that crossed layer IV in the septa between barrels. The other antibody, BW6 recognized a MAP1A isoform that was mainly confined to the barrel hollow and identified smaller caliber dendrites. Previously, an interaction of MAP1A and the serotonin 5-hydroxytryptamine 2A (5-HT(2A)) receptor was shown in the rat cortex. Here, we identified, by double-immunofluorescent labeling, MAP1A isoform and serotonin 5-HT(2A) receptor distribution. MAP1A co-localized mainly with 5-HT(2A) receptor in larger apical dendrites situated in septa. This differential staining of MAP1A and a serotonin receptor in defined barrel compartments may be due to changes in the expression or processing of MAP1A during dendritic transport as a consequence of functional differences in processing of whisker-related sensory input.

Distribution and anatomical localization of the glucose transporter 2 (GLUT2) in the adult rat brain--an immunohistochemical study.

The aim of this work was to study the distribution and cellular localization of GLUT2 in the rat brain by light and electron microscopic immunohistochemistry, whereas our ultrastructural observations will be reported in a second paper. Confirming previous results, we show that GLUT2-immunoreactive profiles are present throughout the brain, especially in the limbic areas and related nuclei, whereas they appear most concentrated in the ventral and medial regions close to the midline. Using cresyl violet counterstaining and double immunohistochemical staining for glial or neuronal markers (GFAp, CAII and NeuN), we show that two limited populations of oligodendrocytes and astrocytes cell bodies and processes are immunoreactive for GLUT2, whereas a cross-reaction with GLUT1 cannot be ruled out. In addition, we report that the nerve cell bodies clearly immunostained for GLUT2 were scarce (although numerous in the dentate gyrus granular layer in particular), whereas the periphery of numerous nerve cells appeared labeled for this transporter. The latter were clustered in the dorsal endopiriform nucleus and neighboring temporal and perirhinal cortex, in the dorsal amygdaloid region, and in the paraventricular and reuniens thalamic nuclei, whereas they were only a few in the hypothalamus. Moreover, a group of GLUT2-immunoreactive nerve cell bodies was localized in the dorsal medulla oblongata while some large multipolar nerve cell bodies peripherally labeled for GLUT2 were scattered in the caudal ventral reticular formation. This anatomical localization of GLUT2 appears characteristic and different from that reported for the neuronal transporter GLUT3 and GLUT4. Indeed, the possibility that GLUT2 may be localized in the sub-plasmalemnal region of neurones and/or in afferent nerve fibres remains to be confirmed by ultrastructural observations. Because of the neuronal localization of GLUT2, and of its distribution relatively similar to glucokinase, it may be hypothesized that this transporter is, at least partially, involved in cerebral glucose sensing.