Overcoming the rare species modelling paradox: test of a novel hierarchical framework with an Iberian endemic plant

Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

Fracture risk and zoledronic acid therapy in men with osteoporosis.

BACKGROUND: Fractures in men are a major health issue, and data on the antifracture efficacy of therapies for osteoporosis in men are limited. We studied the effect of zoledronic acid on fracture risk among men with osteoporosis. METHODS: In this multicenter, double-blind, placebo-controlled trial, we randomly assigned 1199 men with primary or hypogonadism-associated osteoporosis who were 50 to 85 years of age to receive an intravenous infusion of zoledronic acid (5 mg) or placebo at baseline and at 12 months. Participants received daily calcium and vitamin D supplementation. The primary end point was the proportion of participants with one or more new morphometric vertebral fractures over a period of 24 months. RESULTS: The rate of any new morphometric vertebral fracture was 1.6% in the zoledronic acid group and 4.9% in the placebo group over the 24-month period, representing a 67% risk reduction with zoledronic acid (relative risk, 0.33; 95% confidence interval, 0.16 to 0.70; P=0.002). As compared with men who received placebo, men who received zoledronic acid had fewer moderate-to-severe vertebral fractures (P=0.03) and less height loss (P=0.002). Fewer participants who received zoledronic acid had clinical vertebral or nonvertebral fractures, although this difference did not reach significance because of the small number of fractures. Bone mineral density was higher and bone-turnover markers were lower in the men who received zoledronic acid (P<0.05 for both comparisons). Results were similar in men with low serum levels of total testosterone. The zoledronic acid and placebo groups did not differ significantly with respect to the incidence of death (2.6% and 2.9%, respectively) or serious adverse events (25.3% and 25.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Zoledronic acid treatment was associated with a significantly reduced risk of vertebral fracture among men with osteoporosis. (Funded by Novartis Pharma; ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00439647.).

IVA in addition to BMD can change the osteoporosis management in 25% of clinical routine patients

Introduction Vertebral fracture is one of the major osteoporoticfractures which are unfortunately very often undetected. In addition,it is well known that prevalent vertebral fracture increases dramaticallythe risk of future additional fracture. Instant Vertebral Assessment(IVA) has been introduced in DXA device a couple of years ago toease the detection of such fracture when routine DXA are performed.To correctly use such tool, ISCD provided clinical recommendationon when and how to use it. The aim of our study was to evaluate theISCD guidelines in clinical routine patients and see how often itmay change of patient management.Methods During two months (March and April 2010), a medicalquestionnaire was systematically given to our clinical routine patientto check the validity of ISCD IVA recommendations in our population.In addition, all women had BMD measurement at AP spine,femur and 1/3 radius using a Discovery A System (Hologic, Waltham,USA). When appropriate, IVA measurement had been performedon the same DXA system and had been centrally evaluated by twotrained doctors for fracture status according to the semi-quantitativemethod of Genant. The reading had been performed when possiblebetween L5 and T4.Results Out of 210 women seen in the consultation, 109 (52 %)of them (mean age 68.2 ± 11.5 years) fulfilled the necessary criteriato have an IVA measurement. Out of these 109 women, 43 (incidence39.4 %) had osteoporosis at one of the three skeletal sitesand 31 (incidence 28.4 %) had at least one vertebral fracture. 14.7 %of women had both osteoporosis and at least one vertebral fractureclassifying them as "severe osteoporosis" while 46.8 % did not haveosteoporosis and no vertebral fracture. 24.8 % of the women hadosteoporosis but no vertebral fracture while 13.8 % of women didhave osteoporosis but vertebral fracture (clinical osteoporosis).Conclusions In 52 % of our patients, IVA was needed accordingto ISCD criteria. In half of them the IVA test influenced of patientmanagement either may changing the type of treatment of simplyby classifying patient as "clinical osteoporosis". IVA appears to bean important tool in clinical routine but unfortunately is not yetvery often use in most of the centers.

Lateral condyle fracture of the humerus in children treated with bioabsorbable materials.

The aim of this study was to compare clinical and radiological outcome of lateral condyle fracture of the elbow in children treated with bioabsorbable or metallic material. From January 2008 to December 2009, 16 children with similar fractures and ages were grouped according to the fixation material used. Children were seen at 3, 6, and 12 months and more than 4 years (mean 51.8 months) postoperatively. The clinical results were compared using the Mayo Elbow Performance Score (MEPS). Radiographic studies of the fractured and opposite elbow were assessed at last follow-up control. Twelve children had a sufficient followup and could be included in the study. Seven could be included in the traditional group and 5 in the bioabsorbable group. At 12 months, the MEPS was 100 for every child in both groups. Asymptomatic bony radiolucent visible tracks and heterotopic ossifications were noted in both groups. There were no significant differences in terms of clinical and radiological outcome between the two groups. The use of bioabsorbable pins or screws is a reasonable alternative to the traditional use of metallic materials for the treatment of lateral condyle fracture of the elbow in children.

Prediction and discrimination of osteoporotic hip fracture in postmenopausal women.

Osteoporotic hip fractures increase dramatically with age and are responsible for considerable morbidity and mortality. Several treatments to prevent the occurrence of hip fracture have been validated in large randomized trials and the current challenge is to improve the identification of individuals at high risk of fracture who would benefit from therapeutic or preventive intervention. We have performed an exhaustive literature review on hip fracture predictors, focusing primarily on clinical risk factors, dual X-ray absorptiometry (DXA), quantitative ultrasound, and bone markers. This review is based on original articles and meta-analyses. We have selected studies that aim both to predict the risk of hip fracture and to discriminate individuals with or without fracture. We have included only postmenopausal women in our review. For studies involving both men and women, only results concerning women have been considered. Regarding clinical factors, only prospective studies have been taken into account. Predictive factors have been used as stand-alone tools to predict hip fracture or sequentially through successive selection processes or by combination into risk scores. There is still much debate as to whether or not the combination of these various parameters, as risk scores or as sequential or concurrent combinations, could help to better predict hip fracture. There are conflicting results on whether or not such combinations provide improvement over each method alone. Sequential combination of bone mineral density and ultrasound parameters might be cost-effective compared with DXA alone, because of fewer bone mineral density measurements. However, use of multiple techniques may increase costs. One problem that precludes comparison of most published studies is that they use either relative risk, or absolute risk, or sensitivity and specificity. The absolute risk of individuals given their risk factors and bone assessment results would be a more appropriate model for decision-making than relative risk. Currently, a group appointed by the World Health Organization and lead by Professor John Kanis is working on such a model. It will therefore be possible to further assess the best choice of threshold to optimize the number of women needed to screen for each country and each treatment.

Fracture imaging within a granitic rock aquifer using multiple-offset single-hole and cross-hole GPR reflection data

The sparsely spaced highly permeable fractures of the granitic rock aquifer at Stang-er-Brune (Brittany, France) form a well-connected fracture network of high permeability but unknown geometry. Previous work based on optical and acoustic logging together with single-hole and cross-hole flowmeter data acquired in 3 neighbouring boreholes (70-100 m deep) has identified the most important permeable fractures crossing the boreholes and their hydraulic connections. To constrain possible flow paths by estimating the geometries of known and previously unknown fractures, we have acquired, processed and interpreted multifold, single- and cross-hole GPR data using 100 and 250 MHz antennas. The GPR data processing scheme consisting of timezero corrections, scaling, bandpass filtering and F-X deconvolution, eigenvector filtering, muting, pre-stack Kirchhoff depth migration and stacking was used to differentiate fluid-filled fracture reflections from source generated noise. The final stacked and pre-stack depth-migrated GPR sections provide high-resolution images of individual fractures (dipping 30-90°) in the surroundings (2-20 m for the 100 MHz antennas; 2-12 m for the 250 MHz antennas) of each borehole in a 2D plane projection that are of superior quality to those obtained from single-offset sections. Most fractures previously identified from hydraulic testing can be correlated to reflections in the single-hole data. Several previously unknown major near vertical fractures have also been identified away from the boreholes.

The Effect Of Induced Intraocular Straylight (cataract Simulation) On Sensitivity Measures Of Standard Automated Perimetry, Pulsar Perimetry And Moorfields Motion Displacement Test

Purpose: To investigate the effect of incremental increases in intraocular straylight on threshold measurements made by three modern forms of perimetry: Standard Automated Perimetry (SAP) using Octopus (Dynamic, G-Pattern), Pulsar Perimetry (PP) (TOP, 66 points) and the Moorfields Motion Displacement Test (MDT) (WEBS, 32 points).Methods: Four healthy young observers were recruited (mean age 26yrs [25yrs, 28yrs]), refractive correction [+2 D, -4.25D]). Five white opacity filters (WOF), each scattering light by different amounts were used to create incremental increases in intraocular straylight (IS). Resultant IS values were measured with each WOF and at baseline (no WOF) for each subject using a C-Quant Straylight Meter (Oculus, Wetzlar, Germany). A 25 yr old has an IS value of ~0.85 log(s). An increase of 40% in IS to 1.2log(s) corresponds to the physiological value of a 70yr old. Each WOFs created an increase in IS between 10-150% from baseline, ranging from effects similar to normal aging to those found with considerable cataract. Each subject underwent 6 test sessions over a 2-week period; each session consisted of the 3 perimetric tests using one of the five WOFs and baseline (both instrument and filter were randomised).Results: The reduction in sensitivity from baseline was calculated. A two-way ANOVA on mean change in threshold (where subjects were treated as rows in the block and each increment in fog filters was treated as column) was used to examine the effect of incremental increases in straylight. Both SAP (p<0.001) and Pulsar (p<0.001) were significantly affected by increases in straylight. The MDT (p=0.35) remained comparatively robust to increases in straylight.Conclusions: The Moorfields MDT measurement of threshold is robust to effects of additional straylight as compared to SAP and PP.

Jaffé-Campanacci syndrome: an extremely rare cause of pathologic fracture of the femur

Introduction: Non-ossifying fibromas are common benign bone tumors of children and young adults. They are usually single, asymptomatic and regress spontaneously in adulthood. Some rare cases of pathologic fractures have been described. Jaffé-Campanacci syndrome is the association of multiple non-ossifying fibromas, "café-au-lait" spots and some degree of type 1 neurofibromatosis. While the relationship between the two entities remains unclear, there seems to be some genetic similarities (partial or complete deletion of the gene NF1). Case Report: A 17 yo female patient with a neurofibromatosis type 1 was referred to our tertiary centre with a pathologic fracture of the distal femur through a non-ossifying fibroma. She had a slight mental retardation and "café-au-lait" spots. Imaging revealed multiple typical non-ossifying fibromas of both distal femurs and proximal tibias. There was no impending fracture of the controlateral side, and no other findings on thoraco-abdominal CT scanner. The fracture was treated by minimal invasive plate osteosynthesis. Histological analysis of tissue samples taken during the intervention confirmed the histologic diagnosis of non-ossifying fibroma. The fracture healed eventless and the patient returned to work after 3 months. At 12 months follow-up, the patient remained pain-free. Imaging revealed remodelling of the lesions. Conclusion: Jaffé-Campanacci syndrome is an extremely rare cause of pathologic femur fracture. These fractures can be treated like any other, and good outcome is expected. There is still no consensus in regards to definition of the disease and its relationship with type 1 neurofibromatosis.

A novel pediatric biventricular assist device: in vitro test results.

Most ventricular assist devices (VADs) currently used in infants are extracorporeal. These VADs require long-term anticoagulation therapy and extensive surgery, and two devices are needed for biventricular support. We designed a biventricular assist device based on shape memory alloy that reproduces the hemodynamic effects of cardiomyoplasty, supporting the heart with a compressing movement, and evaluated its performance in a dedicated mockup system. Nitinol fibers are the device's key component. Ejection fraction (EF), cardiac output (CO), and generated systolic pressure were measured on a test bench. Our test bench settings were a preload range of 0-15 mm Hg, an afterload range of 0-160 mm Hg, and a heart rate (HR) of 20, 30, 40, and 60 beats/min. A power supply of 15 volts and 3.5 amperes was necessary. The EF range went from 34.4% to 1.2% as the afterload and HR increased, along with a CO from 180 to 6 ml/min. The device generated a maximal systolic pressure of 25 mm Hg. Cardiac compression for biventricular assistance in child-sized heart using shape memory alloy is technically feasible. Further testing remains necessary to assess this VAD's in vivo performance range and its reliability.

Bénéfices de l'utilisation d'un test VIH rapide à la permanence PMU-FLON [Benefits of using rapid HIV testing at the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic in Lausanne].

Lab tests are frequently used in primary care to guide patient care. This is particularly the case when a severe disorder, or one that will affect patients' initial care, needs to be excluded rapidly. At the PMU-FLON walk-in clinic the use of HIV testing as recommended by the Swiss Office of Public Health was hampered by the delay in obtaining test results. This led us to introduce rapid HIV testing which provides results within 30 minutes. Following the first 250 tests the authors discuss the results as well as the benefits of rapid HIV testing in an urban walk-in clinic.

Discriminant validity and test-retest reliability of a self-administered Internet-based questionnaire testing doctors' knowledge in evidence-based medicine.

Aims and objectives  This study aimed to determine the discriminant validity and the test-retest reliability of a questionnaire testing the impact of evidence-based medicine (EBM) training on doctors' knowledge and skills. Methods  Questionnaires were sent electronically to all doctors working as residents and chief residents in two French speaking hospital networks in Switzerland. Participants completed the questionnaire twice, within a 4-week interval. The discriminant validity was examined in comparing doctors' performance according to their reported EBM previous training. Proportion of agreement between both sessions of the questionnaire, Cohen's kappa and 'uniform kappa' determined its test-retest reliability. Results  The participation rate was 9.8%/7.1% to first/second session. Performance increased according to the level of doctors' previous training in EBM. The observed proportion of agreement between both sessions was over 70% for 14/19 questions, and the 'uniform kappa' was superior to 0.60 for 15/19 questions. Conclusion  The discriminant validity and test-retest reliability of the questionnaire were satisfying. The low participation rate did not prevent the study from achieving its aims.