Climatic extremes improve predictions of spatial patterns of tree species.

Understanding niche evolution, dynamics, and the response of species to climate change requires knowledge of the determinants of the environmental niche and species range limits. Mean values of climatic variables are often used in such analyses. In contrast, the increasing frequency of climate extremes suggests the importance of understanding their additional influence on range limits. Here, we assess how measures representing climate extremes (i.e., interannual variability in climate parameters) explain and predict spatial patterns of 11 tree species in Switzerland. We find clear, although comparably small, improvement (+20% in adjusted D(2), +8% and +3% in cross-validated True Skill Statistic and area under the receiver operating characteristics curve values) in models that use measures of extremes in addition to means. The primary effect of including information on climate extremes is a correction of local overprediction and underprediction. Our results demonstrate that measures of climate extremes are important for understanding the climatic limits of tree species and assessing species niche characteristics. The inclusion of climate variability likely will improve models of species range limits under future conditions, where changes in mean climate and increased variability are expected.

Smoking, prevalence of disease and health service utilization among the Swiss population.

The data of the 1981-83 Swiss National Health Survey "SOMIPOPS", based on a randomly selected sample of 4,235 individuals aged 20 or over representative of the whole Swiss population, were used to investigate the relation between smoking, prevalence of disease and frequency of health care utilization. The risks of several conditions, including hypertension, myocardial infarction and other heart diseases, asthma, tuberculosis and kidney disease were elevated among ex-smokers. The diseases showing elevated risks among current smokers and significantly positive dose-risk trends included acute bronchitis (relative risk, RR = 3.2 for heavy cigarette smokers vs never smokers), chronic bronchitis or lung emphysema (RR = 2.0), gastro-duodenal ulcer (RR = 1.8) and bone fractures (RR = 1.6). For respiratory conditions, the risk of pipe or cigar smokers was comparable to that of moderate cigarette smokers, whereas for ulcer (RR = 4.1) or fractures (RR = 2.0) the point estimates were even higher than for heavy cigarette smokers. Smokers tended to consult more frequently general practitioners, used more other outpatients services, and were more frequently admitted to hospital during the year preceding the interview. These effects were consistent across strata of age, socio-economic indicators, and persisted after allowance for major identified potential distorting factors. Thus, the results of this survey confirm that smoking is an important cause of morbidity and a major contributory factor to the use of health services.

Cardiovascular patterns associated with appetitive and defensive activation during affective picture viewing

In this study we assessed blood pressure (BP), heart rate (HR), stroke volume (SV), cardiac output (CO), and total peripheral resistance (TPR) in response to 13 picture series in 37 participants in order to investigate their hemodynamic response associated with activation of the appetitive and defensive motivational systems underlying emotional experience. BP and SV, but not TPR, increased with increasing self-rated arousal, whereas HR decelerated more in response to negative than positive and neutral pictures. These findings suggest that modulation of the cardiovascular response to pictures is primarily myocardial. The observed response pattern is consistent with a configuration of cardiac sympathetic-parasympathetic coactivation. The relationships between self-rated arousal, BP, and SV were mainly exhibited by men, suggesting that increases in the sympathetic inotropic effect to the heart with self-rated arousal may be larger in men than in women.

Rates of cultural change and patterns of cultural accumulation in stochastic models of social transmission.

Cultural variation in a population is affected by the rate of occurrence of cultural innovations, whether such innovations are preferred or eschewed, how they are transmitted between individuals in the population, and the size of the population. An innovation, such as a modification in an attribute of a handaxe, may be lost or may become a property of all handaxes, which we call "fixation of the innovation." Alternatively, several innovations may attain appreciable frequencies, in which case properties of the frequency distribution-for example, of handaxe measurements-is important. Here we apply the Moran model from the stochastic theory of population genetics to study the evolution of cultural innovations. We obtain the probability that an initially rare innovation becomes fixed, and the expected time this takes. When variation in cultural traits is due to recurrent innovation, copy error, and sampling from generation to generation, we describe properties of this variation, such as the level of heterogeneity expected in the population. For all of these, we determine the effect of the mode of social transmission: conformist, where there is a tendency for each naïve newborn to copy the most popular variant; pro-novelty bias, where the newborn prefers a specific variant if it exists among those it samples; one-to-many transmission, where the variant one individual carries is copied by all newborns while that individual remains alive. We compare our findings with those predicted by prevailing theories for rates of cultural change and the distribution of cultural variation.

Alliance patterns over the course of short-term dynamic psychotherapy: The shape of productive relationships.

The shape of alliance processes over the course of psychotherapy has already been studied in several process-outcome studies on very brief psychotherapy. The present study applies the shape-of-change methodology to short-term dynamic psychotherapies and complements this method with hierarchical linear modeling. A total of 50 psychotherapies of up to 40 sessions were included. Alliance was measured at the end of each session. The results indicate that a linear progression model is most adequate. Three main patterns were found: stable, linear, and quadratic growth. The linear growth pattern, along with the slope parameter, was related to treatment outcome. This study sheds additional light on alliance process research, underscores the importance of linear alliance progression for outcome, and also fosters a better understanding of its limitations.

Patterns of plant subcellular responses to successful oomycete infections reveal differences in host cell reprogramming and endocytic trafficking.

Adapted filamentous pathogens such as the oomycetes Hyaloperonospora arabidopsidis (Hpa) and Phytophthora infestans (Pi) project specialized hyphae, the haustoria, inside living host cells for the suppression of host defence and acquisition of nutrients. Accommodation of haustoria requires reorganization of the host cell and the biogenesis of a novel host cell membrane, the extrahaustorial membrane (EHM), which envelops the haustorium separating the host cell from the pathogen. Here, we applied live-cell imaging of fluorescent-tagged proteins labelling a variety of membrane compartments and investigated the subcellular changes associated with accommodating oomycete haustoria in Arabidopsis and N. benthamiana. Plasma membrane-resident proteins differentially localized to the EHM. Likewise, secretory vesicles and endosomal compartments surrounded Hpa and Pi haustoria revealing differences between these two oomycetes, and suggesting a role for vesicle trafficking pathways for the pathogen-controlled biogenesis of the EHM. The latter is supported by enhanced susceptibility of mutants in endosome-mediated trafficking regulators. These observations point at host subcellular defences and specialization of the EHM in a pathogen-specific manner. Defence-associated haustorial encasements, a double-layered membrane that grows around mature haustoria, were frequently observed in Hpa interactions. Intriguingly, all tested plant proteins accumulated at Hpa haustorial encasements suggesting the general recruitment of default vesicle trafficking pathways to defend pathogen access. Altogether, our results show common requirements of subcellular changes associated with oomycete biotrophy, and highlight differences between two oomycete pathogens in reprogramming host cell vesicle trafficking for haustoria accommodation. This provides a framework for further dissection of the pathogen-triggered reprogramming of host subcellular changes.

Simple estimation of incident HIV infection rates in notification cohorts based on window periods of algorithms for evaluation of line-immunoassay result patterns.

BACKGROUND: Tests for recent infections (TRIs) are important for HIV surveillance. We have shown that a patient's antibody pattern in a confirmatory line immunoassay (Inno-Lia) also yields information on time since infection. We have published algorithms which, with a certain sensitivity and specificity, distinguish between incident (< = 12 months) and older infection. In order to use these algorithms like other TRIs, i.e., based on their windows, we now determined their window periods. METHODS: We classified Inno-Lia results of 527 treatment-naïve patients with HIV-1 infection < = 12 months according to incidence by 25 algorithms. The time after which all infections were ruled older, i.e. the algorithm's window, was determined by linear regression of the proportion ruled incident in dependence of time since infection. Window-based incident infection rates (IIR) were determined utilizing the relationship 'Prevalence = Incidence x Duration' in four annual cohorts of HIV-1 notifications. Results were compared to performance-based IIR also derived from Inno-Lia results, but utilizing the relationship 'incident = true incident + false incident' and also to the IIR derived from the BED incidence assay. RESULTS: Window periods varied between 45.8 and 130.1 days and correlated well with the algorithms' diagnostic sensitivity (R(2) = 0.962; P<0.0001). Among the 25 algorithms, the mean window-based IIR among the 748 notifications of 2005/06 was 0.457 compared to 0.453 obtained for performance-based IIR with a model not correcting for selection bias. Evaluation of BED results using a window of 153 days yielded an IIR of 0.669. Window-based IIR and performance-based IIR increased by 22.4% and respectively 30.6% in 2008, while 2009 and 2010 showed a return to baseline for both methods. CONCLUSIONS: IIR estimations by window- and performance-based evaluations of Inno-Lia algorithm results were similar and can be used together to assess IIR changes between annual HIV notification cohorts.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Are patterns of bone loss in anorexic and postmenopausal women similar? Preliminary results using high resolution peripheral computed tomography.

This study intended to compare bone density and architecture in three groups of women: young women with anorexia nervosa (AN), an age-matched control group of young women, and healthy late postmenopausal women. Three-dimensional peripheral quantitative high resolution computed-tomography (HR-pQCT) at the ultradistal radius, a technology providing measures of cortical and trabecular bone density and microarchitecture, was performed in the three cohorts. Thirty-six women with AN aged 18-30years (mean duration of AN: 5.8years), 83 healthy late postmenopausal women aged 70-81 as well as 30 age-matched healthy young women were assessed. The overall cortical and trabecular bone density (D100), the absolute thickness of the cortical bone (CTh), and the absolute number of trabecules per area (TbN) were significantly lower in AN patients compared with healthy young women. The absolute number of trabecules per area (TbN) in AN and postmenopausal women was similar, but significantly lower than in healthy young women. The comparison between AN patients and post-menopausal women is of interest because the latter reach bone peak mass around the middle of the fertile age span whereas the former usually lose bone before reaching optimal bone density and structure. This study shows that bone mineral density and bone compacta thickness in AN are lower than those in controls but still higher than those in postmenopause. Bone compacta density in AN is similar as in controls. However, bone inner structure in AN is degraded to a similar extent as in postmenopause. This last finding is particularly troubling.

Temporal patterns of nucleotide misincorporations and DNA fragmentation in ancient DNA.

DNA that survives in museum specimens, bones and other tissues recovered by archaeologists is invariably fragmented and chemically modified. The extent to which such modifications accumulate over time is largely unknown but could potentially be used to differentiate between endogenous old DNA and present-day DNA contaminating specimens and experiments. Here we examine mitochondrial DNA sequences from tissue remains that vary in age between 18 and 60,000 years with respect to three molecular features: fragment length, base composition at strand breaks, and apparent C to T substitutions. We find that fragment length does not decrease consistently over time and that strand breaks occur preferentially before purine residues by what may be at least two different molecular mechanisms that are not yet understood. In contrast, the frequency of apparent C to T substitutions towards the 5'-ends of molecules tends to increase over time. These nucleotide misincorporations are thus a useful tool to distinguish recent from ancient DNA sources in specimens that have not been subjected to unusual or harsh treatments.

Abnormalities of fuel utilization as predisposing to the development of obesity in humans.

A number of recent investigations in man have demonstrated that a low ratio of fat to carbohydrate oxidation (i.e., a high respiratory quotient or RQ) was associated with actual and/or subsequent body weight gain in obese non-diabetic Pima Indians, in American men of various ages and in post-obese European women investigated shortly after the cessation of a hypocaloric diet. It is well known that numerous exogenous and endogenous factors influence the RQ at rest such as: the level of feeding (positive vs. negative energy balance), the composition of food eaten (high vs. low carbohydrate), the size of the glycogen stores, the amount of adipose tissue as well as genetic factors. It should be stressed that some nutritional situations can co-exist during which a low ratio of fat to carbohydrate is observed (i.e., a high RQ) despite weight loss. Furthermore, in most studies mentioned above, the low fat to carbohydrate oxidation ratio explains less than 10% of the variance in weight gain, suggesting that numerous additional factors also play a substantial role in the onset of weight gain. It is concluded that: 1) a low fat to carbohydrate oxidation ratio or an abnormal fat oxidation is difficult to define quantitatively since it is largely influenced by the energy level and the composition of the diet.(ABSTRACT TRUNCATED AT 250 WORDS)

Mécanismes cellulaires du métabolisme énergétique cérébral: implications pour l'imagerie fonctionnelle

Signals detected with functional brain imaging techniques are based on the coupling of neuronal activity with energy metabolism. Techniques such as positron emission tomography (PET) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) allow the visualization of brain areas that are activated by a variety of sensory, motor or cognitive tasks. Despite the technological sophistication of these brain imaging techniques, the precise mechanisms and cell types involved in coupling and in generating metabolic signals are still debated. Recent experimental data on the cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie the fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG) - based PET imaging point to a critical role of a particular brain cell type, the astrocytes, in coupling neuronal activity to glucose utilization. Indeed, astrocytes possess receptors and re-uptake sites for a variety of neurotransmitters, including glutamate, the predominant excitatory neurotransmitter in the brain, In addition, astrocytic end-feet, which surround capillaries, are enriched in the specific glucose transporter GLUT-1. These features allow astrocytes to "sense" synaptic activity and to couple it with energy metabolism. In vivo and in vitro data support the following functional model: in response to glutamate released by active neurons, glucose is predominantly taken up by astrocytic end-feet; glucose is then metabolized to lactate which provides a preferred energy substrate for neurons. These data support the notion that astrocytes markedly contribute to the FDG-PET signal.

Characterization of modern and fossil mineral dust transported to high altitude in the Western Alps: Saharan sources and transport patterns

Mineral dust aerosols recently collected at the high-altitude Jungfraujoch research station (46 degrees 33'51 `' N, 7 degrees 59'06 `' E; 3580 m a.s.l.) were compared to mineral dust deposited at the Colle Gnifetti glacier (45 degrees 52'50 `' N, 7 degrees 52'33 `' E; 4455 m a.s.l.) over the last millennium. Radiogenic isotope signatures and backward trajectories analyses indicate that major dust sources are situated in the north-central to north-western part of the Saharan desert. Less radiogenic Sr isotopic compositions of PM10 aerosols and of mineral particles deposited during periods of low dust transfer likely result from the enhancement of the background chemically-weathered Saharan source. Saharan dust mobilization and transport were relatively reduced during the second part of the Little Ice Age (ca. 1690-1870) except within the greatest Saharan dust event deposited around 1770. After ca. 1870, sustained dust deposition suggests that increased mineral dust transport over the Alps during the last century could be due to stronger spring/summer North Atlantic southwesterlies and drier winters in North Africa. On the other hand, increasing carbonaceous particle emissions from fossil fuel combustion combined to a higher lead enrichment factor point to concomitant anthropogenic sources of particulate pollutants reaching high-altitude European glaciers during the last century.

Aging effects on selective attention-related electroencephalographic patterns during face encoding.

Previous electrophysiological studies revealed that human faces elicit an early visual event-related potential (ERP) within the occipito-temporal cortex, the N170 component. Although face perception has been proposed to rely on automatic processing, the impact of selective attention on N170 remains controversial both in young and elderly individuals. Using early visual ERP and alpha power analysis, we assessed the influence of aging on selective attention to faces during delayed-recognition tasks for face and letter stimuli, examining 36 elderly and 20 young adults with preserved cognition. Face recognition performance worsened with age. Aging induced a latency delay of the N1 component for faces and letters, as well as of the face N170 component. Contrasting with letters, ignored faces elicited larger N1 and N170 components than attended faces in both age groups. This counterintuitive attention effect on face processing persisted when scenes replaced letters. In contrast with young, elderly subjects failed to suppress irrelevant letters when attending faces. Whereas attended stimuli induced a parietal alpha band desynchronization within 300-1000 ms post-stimulus with bilateral-to-right distribution for faces and left lateralization for letters, ignored and passively viewed stimuli elicited a central alpha synchronization larger on the right hemisphere. Aging delayed the latency of this alpha synchronization for both face and letter stimuli, and reduced its amplitude for ignored letters. These results suggest that due to their social relevance, human faces may cause paradoxical attention effects on early visual ERP components, but they still undergo classical top-down control as a function of endogenous selective attention. Aging does not affect the face bottom-up alerting mechanism but reduces the top-down suppression of distracting letters, possibly impinging upon face recognition, and more generally delays the top-down suppression of task-irrelevant information.