Using species richness and functional traits predictions to constrain assemblage predictions from stacked species distribution models

Aim: Modelling species at the assemblage level is required to make effective forecast of global change impacts on diversity and ecosystem functioning. Community predictions may be achieved using macroecological properties of communities (MEM), or by stacking of individual species distribution models (S-SDMs). To obtain more realistic predictions of species assemblages, the SESAM framework suggests applying successive filters to the initial species source pool, by combining different modelling approaches and rules. Here we provide a first test of this framework in mountain grassland communities. Location: The western Swiss Alps. Methods: Two implementations of the SESAM framework were tested: a "Probability ranking" rule based on species richness predictions and rough probabilities from SDMs, and a "Trait range" rule that uses the predicted upper and lower bound of community-level distribution of three different functional traits (vegetative height, specific leaf area and seed mass) to constraint a pool of environmentally filtered species from binary SDMs predictions. Results: We showed that all independent constraints expectedly contributed to reduce species richness overprediction. Only the "Probability ranking" rule allowed slightly but significantly improving predictions of community composition. Main conclusion: We tested various ways to implement the SESAM framework by integrating macroecological constraints into S-SDM predictions, and report one that is able to improve compositional predictions. We discuss possible improvements, such as further improving the causality and precision of environmental predictors, using other assembly rules and testing other types of ecological or functional constraints.

How environmental sounds become meaningful

The term "sound object" describes an auditory experience that is associated with an acoustic event produced by a sound source. In natural settings, a sound produced by a living being or an object provides information about the identity and the location of the sound source. Sound's identity is orocessed alono the ventral "What" pathway which consists of regions within the superior and middle temporal cortices as well as the inferior frontal gyrus. This work concerns the creation of individual auditory object representations in narrow semantic categories and their plasticity using electrical imaging. Discrimination of sounds from broad category has been shown to occur along a temporal hierarchy and in different brain regions along the ventral "What" pathway. However, sounds belonging to the same semantic category, such as faces or voices, were shown to be discriminated in specific brain areas and are thought to represent a special class of stimuli. I have investigated how cortical representations of a narrow category, here birdsongs, is modulated by training novices to recognized songs of individual bird species. Dynamic analysis of distributed source estimations revealed differential sound object representations within the auditory ventral "What" pathway as a function of the level of expertise newly acquired. Correct recognition of trained items induces a sharpening within a left-lateralized semantic network starting around 200ms, whereas untrained items' processing occurs later in lower-level and memory-related regions. With another category of sounds belonging to the same category, here heartbeats, I investigated the cortical representations of correct and incorrect recognition of sounds. Source estimations revealed differential representations partially overlapping with regions involved in the semantic network that is activated when participants became experts in the task. Incorrect recognition also induces a higher activation when compared to correct recognition in regions processing lower-level features. The discrimination of heartbeat sounds is a difficult task and requires a continuous listening. I investigated whether the repetition effects are modulated by participants' behavioral performance. Dynamic source estimations revealed repetition suppression in areas located outside of the semantic network. Therefore, individual environmental sounds become meaningful with training. Their representations mainly involve a left-lateralized network of brain regions that are tuned with expertise, as well as other brain areas, not related to semantic processing, and occurring in early stages of semantic processing. -- Le terme objet sonore" décrit une expérience auditive associée à un événement acoustique produit par une source sonore. Dans l'environnement, un son produit par un être vivant ou un objet fournit des informations concernant l'identité et la localisation de la source sonore. Les informations concernant l'identité d'un son sont traitée le long de la voie ventrale di "Quoi". Cette voie est composée de regions situées dans le cortex temporal et frontal. L'objet de ce travail est d'étudier quels sont les neuro-mecanismes impliqués dans la représentation de nouveaux objets sonores appartenant à une meme catégorie sémantique ainsi que les phénomènes de plasticité à l'aide de l'imagerie électrique. Il a été montré que la discrimination de sons appartenant à différentes catégories sémantiques survient dans différentes aires situées le long la voie «Quoi» et suit une hiérarchie temporelle II a également été montré que la discrimination de sons appartenant à la même catégorie sémantique tels que les visages ou les voix, survient dans des aires spécifiques et représenteraient des stimuli particuliers. J'ai étudié comment les représentations corticales de sons appartenant à une même catégorie sémantique, dans ce cas des chants d'oiseaux, sont modifiées suite à un entraînement Pour ce faire, des sujets novices ont été entraînés à reconnaître des chants d'oiseaux spécifiques L'analyse des estimations des sources neuronales au cours du temps a montré que les representations des objets sonores activent de manière différente des régions situées le long de la vo,e ventrale en fonction du niveau d'expertise acquis grâce à l'entraînement. La reconnaissance des chants pour lesquels les sujets ont été entraînés implique un réseau sémantique principalement situé dans l'hémisphère gauche activé autour de 200ms. Au contraire, la reconnaissance des chants pour lesquels les sujets n'ont pas été entraînés survient plus tardivement dans des régions de plus bas niveau. J'ai ensuite étudié les mécanismes impliqués dans la reconnaissance et non reconnaissance de sons appartenant à une autre catégorie, .es battements de coeur. L'analyse des sources neuronales a montre que certaines régions du réseau sémantique lié à l'expertise acquise sont recrutées de maniere différente en fonction de la reconnaissance ou non reconnaissance du son La non reconnaissance des sons recrute des régions de plus bas niveau. La discrimination des bruits cardiaques est une tâche difficile et nécessite une écoute continue du son. J'ai étudié l'influence des réponses comportementales sur les effets de répétitions. L'analyse des sources neuronales a montré que la reconnaissance ou non reconnaissance des sons induisent des effets de repétition différents dans des régions situées en dehors des aires du réseau sémantique. Ainsi, les sons acquièrent un sens grâce à l'entraînement. Leur représentation corticale implique principalement un réseau d'aires cérébrales situé dans l'hémisphère gauche, dont l'activité est optimisée avec l'acquisition d'un certain niveau d'expertise, ainsi que d'autres régions qui ne sont pas liée au traitement de l'information sémantique. L'activité de ce réseau sémantique survient plus rapidemement que la prédiction par le modèle de la hiérarchie temporelle.

Embolic Strokes of Undetermined Source in the Athens Stroke Registry: an Outcome Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Information about outcomes in Embolic Stroke of Undetermined Source (ESUS) patients is unavailable. This study provides a detailed analysis of outcomes of a large ESUS population. METHODS: Data set was derived from the Athens Stroke Registry. ESUS was defined according to the Cryptogenic Stroke/ESUS International Working Group criteria. End points were mortality, stroke recurrence, functional outcome, and a composite cardiovascular end point comprising recurrent stroke, myocardial infarction, aortic aneurysm rupture, systemic embolism, or sudden cardiac death. We performed Kaplan-Meier analyses to estimate cumulative probabilities of outcomes by stroke type and Cox-regression to investigate whether stroke type was outcome predictor. RESULTS: 2731 patients were followed-up for a mean of 30.5±24.1months. There were 73 (26.5%) deaths, 60 (21.8%) recurrences, and 78 (28.4%) composite cardiovascular end points in the 275 ESUS patients. The cumulative probability of survival in ESUS was 65.6% (95% confidence intervals [CI], 58.9%-72.2%), significantly higher compared with cardioembolic stroke (38.8%, 95% CI, 34.9%-42.7%). The cumulative probability of stroke recurrence in ESUS was 29.0% (95% CI, 22.3%-35.7%), similar to cardioembolic strokes (26.8%, 95% CI, 22.1%-31.5%), but significantly higher compared with all types of noncardioembolic stroke. One hundred seventy-two (62.5%) ESUS patients had favorable functional outcome compared with 280 (32.2%) in cardioembolic and 303 (60.9%) in large-artery atherosclerotic. ESUS patients had similar risk of composite cardiovascular end point as all other stroke types, with the exception of lacunar strokes, which had significantly lower risk (adjusted hazard ratio, 0.70 [95% CI, 0.52-0.94]). CONCLUSIONS: Long-term mortality risk in ESUS is lower compared with cardioembolic strokes, despite similar rates of recurrence and composite cardiovascular end point. Recurrent stroke risk is higher in ESUS than in noncardioembolic strokes.

Length of the Mitral Isthmus But Not Anatomical Location of Ablation Line Predicts Bidirectional Mitral Isthmus Block in Patients Undergoing Catheter Ablation of Persistent Atrial Fibrillation: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

INTRODUCTION: Mitral isthmus (MI) ablation is an effective option in patients undergoing ablation for persistent atrial fibrillation (AF). Achieving bidirectional conduction block across the MI is challenging, and predictors of MI ablation success remain incompletely understood. We sought to determine the impact of anatomical location of the ablation line on the efficacy of MI ablation. METHODS AND RESULTS: A total of 40 consecutive patients (87% male; 54 ± 10 years) undergoing stepwise AF ablation were included. MI ablation was performed in sinus rhythm. MI ablation was performed from the left inferior PV to either the posterior (group 1) or the anterolateral (group 2) mitral annulus depending on randomization. The length of the MI line (measured with the 3D mapping system) and the amplitude of the EGMs at 3 positions on the MI were measured in each patient. MI block was achieved in 14/19 (74%) patients in group 1 and 15/21 (71%) patients in group 2 (P = NS). Total MI radiofrequency time (18 ± 7 min vs. 17 ± 8 min; P = NS) was similar between groups. Patients with incomplete MI block had a longer MI length (34 ± 6 mm vs. 24 ± 5 mm; P < 0.001), a higher bipolar voltage along the MI (1.75 ± 0.74 mV vs. 1.05 ± 0.69 mV; P < 0.01), and a longer history of continuous AF (19 ± 17 months vs. 10 ± 10 months; P < 0.05). In multivariate analysis, decreased length of the MI was an independent predictor of successful MI block (OR 1.5; 95% CI 1.1-2.1; P < 0.05). CONCLUSIONS: Increased length but not anatomical location of the MI predicts failure to achieve bidirectional MI block during ablation of persistent AF.

Soft tissue artifact distribution on lower limbs during treadmill gait: Influence of skin markers' location on cluster design.

Segment poses and joint kinematics estimated from skin markers are highly affected by soft tissue artifact (STA) and its rigid motion component (STARM). While four marker-clusters could decrease the STA non-rigid motion during gait activity, other data, such as marker location or STARM patterns, would be crucial to compensate for STA in clinical gait analysis. The present study proposed 1) to devise a comprehensive average map illustrating the spatial distribution of STA for the lower limb during treadmill gait and 2) to analyze STARM from four marker-clusters assigned to areas extracted from spatial distribution. All experiments were realized using a stereophotogrammetric system to track the skin markers and a bi-plane fluoroscopic system to track the knee prosthesis. Computation of the spatial distribution of STA was realized on 19 subjects using 80 markers apposed on the lower limb. Three different areas were extracted from the distribution map of the thigh. The marker displacement reached a maximum of 24.9mm and 15.3mm in the proximal areas of thigh and shank, respectively. STARM was larger on thigh than the shank with RMS error in cluster orientations between 1.2° and 8.1°. The translation RMS errors were also large (3.0mm to 16.2mm). No marker-cluster correctly compensated for STARM. However, the coefficient of multiple correlations exhibited excellent scores between skin and bone kinematics, as well as for STARM between subjects. These correlations highlight dependencies between STARM and the kinematic components. This study provides new insights for modeling STARM for gait activity.

Subthalamic (STN) Deep Brain Stimulation (DBS) in Parkinson's Disease (PD): Correlation Between the Location of the Stimulated Contacts and the Clinical Effects in 14 Patients

Objectives: To correlate the chronic stimulated electrode position on postoperative MRI with the clinical response obtained in PD patients. Material and Method: We retrospectively reviewed 14 consecutive parkinsonian patients who were selected for STN-DBS surgery. Coordinates were determined on an IR T2 MRI coronal section per pendicular to AC-PC plane 3 mm posterior to midcommissural point (MCP) and 12 mm lateral to the midline the inferior aspect of subthalamic region. A CRW stereotactic frame was used for the surgical procedure. A 3D IR T2 MRI was performed postoperatively to determine the location of the stimulated contact in each patient. The clinical results were assessed independently by the neurological team. Results: All but 2 patients had monopolar stimulation. The mean coordinates of the stimulated contacts were: AP ^ ÿ4:23G1:4, Lat ^ 1:12G0:15, Vert ^ ÿ4:1 G2:7 to the MCP. With a mean follow-up of 8 months, all stimulated patients had a significant clinical improvement (preop/postop «ON» UPDRS: 25:8G7:0= 23:3 G8:6; preop/postop «OFF» UPDRS: 50:2G11:4=26:0 G7:8), 60% of them without any antiparkinsonian drug. Conclusion: According to the stereotactic atlas of Schaltenbrand and Warren and the 3D shape of the STN, our results show that our targetting is accurate and almost all the stimulated contacts are comprised in the STN volume. This indicates that MRI is a safe, precise and reproducible procedure for targetting the STN. The location of the stimulated contact within the STN volume is a good predictor of the clinical results.

Avancées sur la source, la taille et la nature des particules microbiennes aéroportées présentes dans l'environnement intérieur

L'exposition à certaines particules fongiques et bactéries présentes dans les aérosols de l'environnement intérieur a été associée au développement ou à l'exacerbation d'affections respiratoires telles que l'asthme, la rhinite allergique ou encore l'aspergillose (1-4). Le réservoir principal identifié dans cet environnement pour les bactéries aéroportées est constitué par les habitants eux-mêmes, alors que celui des particules fongiques est l'environnement extérieur, ou, lorsque les conditions sont réunies, l'environnement intérieur (5-7). Néanmoins, la nature et la taille de ces particules fongiques, ainsi que l'impact de l'occupation humaine sur ces paramètres n'ont été que peu explorés. Les articles de cette note s'intéressent justement à ces aspects et illustrent l'importance de leur prise en compte dans l'évaluation du risque d'exposition aux microorganismes dans l'environnement intérieur. L'étude de Hospodsky et coll. (2014) apporte une information quantitative sur le niveau d'émission de bactéries et particules fongiques résultant d'une occupation humaine dans des environnements intérieurs sains. Alors que l'étude de Afanou et coll. (2014) montre la complexité des particules fongiques qui peuvent être générées dans l'environnement intérieur, différentes espèces de moisissures pouvant participer en proportions différentes au nombre de particules submicroniques1 grâce à leurs fragments de spores ou hyphes.

Evaluating forensic biology results given source level propositions

The evaluation of forensic evidence can occur at any level within the hierarchy of propositions depending on the question being asked and the amount and type of information that is taken into account within the evaluation. Commonly DNA evidence is reported given propositions that deal with the sub-source level in the hierarchy, which deals only with the possibility that a nominated individual is a source of DNA in a trace (or contributor to the DNA in the case of a mixed DNA trace). We explore the use of information obtained from examinations, presumptive and discriminating tests for body fluids, DNA concentrations and some case circumstances within a Bayesian network in order to provide assistance to the Courts that have to consider propositions at source level. We use a scenario in which the presence of blood is of interest as an exemplar and consider how DNA profiling results and the potential for laboratory error can be taken into account. We finish with examples of how the results of these reports could be presented in court using either numerical values or verbal descriptions of the results.

Inférence de source de traces d'essence retrouvées dans des débris d'incendie: Evaluation de la contribution de la chromatographie en phase gazeuse couplée à la spectrométrie de masse à rapport isotopique

Lorsque de l'essence est employée pour allumer et/ou propager un incendie, l'inférence de la source de l'essence peut permettre d'établir un lien entre le sinistre et une source potentielle. Cette inférence de la source constitue une alternative intéressante pour fournir des éléments de preuve dans ce type d'événements où les preuves matérielles laissées par l'auteur sont rares. Le but principal de cette recherche était le développement d'une méthode d'analyse de spécimens d'essence par GC-IRMS, méthode pas routinière et peu étudiée en science forensique, puis l'évaluation de son potentiel à inférer la source de traces d'essence en comparaison aux performances de la GC-MS. Un appareillage permettant d'analyser simultanément les échantillons par MS et par IRMS a été utilisé dans cette recherche. Une méthode d'analyse a été développée, optimisée et validée pour cet appareillage. Par la suite, des prélèvements d'essence provenant d'un échantillonnage conséquent et représentatif du marché de la région lausannoise ont été analysés. Finalement, les données obtenues ont été traitées et interprétées à l'aide de méthodes chimiométriques. Les analyses effectuées ont permis de montrer que la méthodologie mise en place, aussi bien pour la composante MS que pour l'IRMS, permet de différencier des échantillons d'essence non altérée provenant de différentes stations-service. Il a également pu être démontré qu'à chaque nouveau remplissage des cuves d'une station-service, la composition de l'essence distribuée par cette station est quasi unique. La GC-MS permet une meilleure différenciation d'échantillons prélevés dans différentes stations, alors que la GC-IRMS est plus performante lorsqu'il s'agit de comparer des échantillons collectés après chacun des remplissages d'une cuve. Ainsi, ces résultats indiquent que les deux composantes de la méthode peuvent être complémentaires pour l'analyse d'échantillons d'essence non altérée. Les résultats obtenus ont également permis de montrer que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence ne compromet pas la possibilité de grouper des échantillons de même source par GC-MS. Il est toutefois nécessaire d'effectuer une sélection des variables afin d'éliminer celles qui sont influencées par le phénomène d'évaporation. Par contre, les analyses effectuées ont montré que l'évaporation des échantillons d'essence a une forte influence sur la composition isotopique des échantillons. Cette influence est telle qu'il n'est pas possible, même en effectuant une sélection des variables, de grouper correctement des échantillons évaporés par GC-IRMS. Par conséquent, seule la composante MS de la méthodologie mise en place permet d'inférer la source d'échantillons d'essence évaporée. _________________________________________________________________________________________________ When gasoline is used to start and / or propagate an arson, source inference of gasoline can allow to establish a link between the fire and a potential source. This source inference is an interesting alternative to provide evidence in this type of events where physical evidence left by the author are rare. The main purpose of this research was to develop a GC-IRMS method for the analysis of gasoline samples, a non-routine method and little investigated in forensic science, and to evaluate its potential to infer the source of gasoline traces compared to the GC-MS performances. An instrument allowing to analyze simultaneously samples by MS and IRMS was used in this research. An analytical method was developed, optimized and validated for this instrument. Thereafter, gasoline samples from a large sampling and representative of the Lausanne area market were analyzed. Finally, the obtained data were processed and interpreted using chemometric methods. The analyses have shown that the methodology, both for MS and for IRMS, allow to differentiate unweathered gasoline samples from different service stations. It has also been demonstrated that each new filling of the tanks of a station generates an almost unique composition of gasoline. GC-MS achieves a better differentiation of samples coming from different stations, while GC-IRMS is more efficient to distinguish samples collected after each filling of a tank. Thus, these results indicate that the two components of the method can be complementary to the analysis of unweathered gasoline samples. The results have also shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples does not compromise the possibility to group samples coming from the same source by GC-MS. It is however necessary to make a selection of variables in order to eliminate those which are influenced by the evaporation. On the other hand, the carried out analyses have shown that the evaporation of gasoline samples has such a strong influence on the isotopic composition of the samples that it is not possible, even by performing a selection of variables, to properly group evaporated samples by GC-IRMS. Therefore, only the MS allows to infer the source of evaporated gasoline samples.