Ruin Theory with Excess of Loss Reinsurance and Reinstatements

The present paper studies the probability of ruin of an insurer, if excess of loss reinsurance with reinstatements is applied. In the setting of the classical Cramer-Lundberg risk model, piecewise deterministic Markov processes are used to describe the free surplus process in this more general situation. It is shown that the finite-time ruin probability is both the solution of a partial integro-differential equation and the fixed point of a contractive integral operator. We exploit the latter representation to develop and implement a recursive algorithm for numerical approximation of the ruin probability that involves high-dimensional integration. Furthermore we study the behavior of the finite-time ruin probability under various levels of initial surplus and security loadings and compare the efficiency of the numerical algorithm with the computational alternative of stochastic simulation of the risk process. (C) 2011 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Testing Spatial Autocorrelation in Weighted Networks : the Modes Permutation Test

In a weighted spatial network, as specified by an exchange matrix, the variances of the spatial values are inversely proportional to the size of the regions. Spatial values are no more exchangeable under independence, thus weakening the rationale for ordinary permutation and bootstrap tests of spatial autocorrelation. We propose an alternative permutation test for spatial autocorrelation, based upon exchangeable spatial modes, constructed as linear orthogonal combinations of spatial values. The coefficients obtain as eigenvectors of the standardised exchange matrix appearing in spectral clustering, and generalise to the weighted case the concept of spatial filtering for connectivity matrices. Also, two proposals aimed at transforming an acessibility matrix into a exchange matrix with with a priori fixed margins are presented. Two examples (inter-regional migratory flows and binary adjacency networks) illustrate the formalism, rooted in the theory of spectral decomposition for reversible Markov chains.

A Picture of Performance Goals in the Social Plenum: The Interpersonal Antecedents and Consequences of Performance Goals

Bien que les activités où la compétence est un enjeu (p. ex. : problème académique) prennent souvent place dans des contextes interpersonnels (p. ex. : classe), hiérarchiques (p. ex. : enseignant-e/élèves), et spécifiques en termes de normes et de valeurs (p. ex. : culture), l'étude des buts de performance-le désir de se montrer compétent-e relativement à autrui-a le plus souvent été conduite au seul niveau intrapersonnel. S'appuyant sur le modèle transactionnel du stress et du coping, le modèle circumplexe des comportements interpersonnels, ainsi que sur la théorie de l'élaboration du conflit, la première partie de cette thèse révèle les conséquences interpersonnelles des buts de performance sur la régulation d'un comportement spécifique, à savoir le conflit sociocognitif (c.-à-d., une situation de confrontation avec un intéractant en désaccord) : les buts de performance-approche-le désir d'être meilleur-e qu'autrui-prédisent une régulation du conflit fortement agentique (dominante), soit la validation de son point de vue au détriment de celui de l'intéractant (que nous désignons régulation compétitive) ; alors que les buts de performance-évitement-le désir de ne pas être moins bon-ne qu'autrui-prédisent une régulation du conflit faiblement agentique (soumise), soit l'invalidation de son point de vue au bénéfice de celui de l'intéractant (que nous désignons régulation protective). De plus, les effets susmentionnés augmentent à mesure que l'intéractant est présenté comme supérieurement (vs. similairement) compétent. S'appuyant sur la littérature sur les structures de buts de groupe, et celle sur la socialisation des valeurs, la seconde partie de cette thèse révèle les antécédents interpersonnels des buts de performance, et plus spécifiquement le rôle du superviseur dans la socialisation des buts de performance : les buts de performance-approche d'un superviseur sont positivement associés avec l'émergence au cours du temps des buts de performance-approche de ses subordonnés (particulièrement lorsqu'ils se perçoivent comme compétents) et celle de leurs buts de performance-évitement (particulièrement lorsqu'ils se perçoivent comme incompétents). En outre, ce phénomène consistant en un processus de socialisation, les effets susmentionnés augmentent lorsque l'identification à l'endogroupe des subordonnées augmente, et lorsque l'adhésion aux valeurs culturelles occidentales dominantes (c.-à-d., rehaussement de soi) du superviseur augmente. Dans leur ensemble, ces résultats soulignent la nécessité d'étudier les buts dans leur plenum social, autrement dit, en adoptant une perspective interpersonnelle (c.-à-d., étudier les effets des buts entre les individus), positionnelle (c.-à-d., entre des individus de différentes positions sociales), et idéologique (c.- à-d., entre des individus se conformant à des normes spécifiques et adhérant à des valeurs spécifiques). -- Although competence-relevant activities (e.g., solving an academic problem) are often embedded in interpersonal (e.g., classroom), hierarchical (e.g., teacher/pupils), and norm-/value-specific (e.g., culture) settings, the study of performance goals-the desire to demonstrate competence relative to others-has mostly been conducted at the intrapersonal level alone. Drawing on the transactional model of stress and coping, the circumplex model of interpersonal behaviors, as well as on the conflict elaboration theory, the first part of this thesis reveals the interpersonal consequences of performance goals on the regulation of a specific behavior, namely socio-cognitive conflict (i.e., a situation of confrontation with a disagreeing interactant): Performance-approach goals-the desire to outperform others- predicted a highly agentic (dominant) conflict regulation, that is, the validation of one's point of view at the expense of that of the interactant (which we labeled competitive regulation); whereas performance-avoidance goals-the desire not to be outperformed by others- predicted a poorly agentic (submissive) conflict regulation, that is, the invalidation of one's point of view to the benefit of that of the interactant (which we labeled protective regulation). Furthermore, both the aforementioned effects were found to increase when the interactant was presented as being superiorly (vs. equally) in competence. Drawing on the literature on group goal structure, as well as on research on socialization of supervisors-based values, the second part of this thesis reveals the interpersonal antecedents of performance-based goals endorsement, focusing-more specifically-on the role of group-supervisors in performance goals socialization: Supervisor's performance-approach goals were positively associated with the emergence over time of subordinates' performance-approach (especially when perceiving themselves as competent) and -avoidance goals (especially when perceiving themselves as incompetent). Furthermore, providing evidence that this phenomenon essentially reflects a socialization process, both the aforementioned effects were found to increase as subordinates' in-group identification increased, and as supervisors' adherence to dominant Western values (i.e., self-enhancement values) increased. Taken together, these results advocate the need to study performance goals in their social plenum, that is, adopting an interpersonal (i.e., studying the effects of goals between individuals), positional (i.e., between individuals from different social positions), and ideological (i.e., between individuals following specific norms and endorsing specific values) perspective.

A test of Jessor's problem behavior theory in a Eurasian and a Western European developmental context.

PURPOSE: The current study tested the applicability of Jessor's problem behavior theory (PBT) in national probability samples from Georgia and Switzerland. Comparisons focused on (1) the applicability of the problem behavior syndrome (PBS) in both developmental contexts, and (2) on the applicability of employing a set of theory-driven risk and protective factors in the prediction of problem behaviors. METHODS: School-based questionnaire data were collected from n = 18,239 adolescents in Georgia (n = 9499) and Switzerland (n = 8740) following the same protocol. Participants rated five measures of problem behaviors (alcohol and drug use, problems because of alcohol and drug use, and deviance), three risk factors (future uncertainty, depression, and stress), and three protective factors (family, peer, and school attachment). Final study samples included n = 9043 Georgian youth (mean age = 15.57; 58.8% females) and n = 8348 Swiss youth (mean age = 17.95; 48.5% females). Data analyses were completed using structural equation modeling, path analyses, and post hoc z-tests for comparisons of regression coefficients. RESULTS: Findings indicated that the PBS replicated in both samples, and that theory-driven risk and protective factors accounted for 13% and 10% in Georgian and Swiss samples, respectively in the PBS, net the effects by demographic variables. Follow-up z-tests provided evidence of some differences in the magnitude, but not direction, in five of six individual paths by country. CONCLUSION: PBT and the PBS find empirical support in these Eurasian and Western European samples; thus, Jessor's theory holds value and promise in understanding the etiology of adolescent problem behaviors outside of the United States.

Cost-effective experimental design to support modeling of concentration-response functions

Modeling concentration-response function became extremely popular in ecotoxicology during the last decade. Indeed, modeling allows determining the total response pattern of a given substance. However, reliable modeling is consuming in term of data, which is in contradiction with the current trend in ecotoxicology, which aims to reduce, for cost and ethical reasons, the number of data produced during an experiment. It is therefore crucial to determine experimental design in a cost-effective manner. In this paper, we propose to use the theory of locally D-optimal designs to determine the set of concentrations to be tested so that the parameters of the concentration-response function can be estimated with high precision. We illustrated this approach by determining the locally D-optimal designs to estimate the toxicity of the herbicide dinoseb on daphnids and algae. The results show that the number of concentrations to be tested is often equal to the number of parameters and often related to the their meaning, i.e. they are located close to the parameters. Furthermore, the results show that the locally D-optimal design often has the minimal number of support points and is not much sensitive to small changes in nominal values of the parameters. In order to reduce the experimental cost and the use of test organisms, especially in case of long-term studies, reliable nominal values may therefore be fixed based on prior knowledge and literature research instead of on preliminary experiments