Explicit ruin formulas for models with dependence among risks

We show that a simple mixing idea allows one to establish a number of explicit formulas for ruin probabilities and related quantities in collective risk models with dependence among claim sizes and among claim inter-occurrence times. Examples include compound Poisson risk models with completely monotone marginal claim size distributions that are dependent according to Archimedean survival copulas as well as renewal risk models with dependent inter-occurrence times.

SESAM - a new framework integrating macroecological and species distribution models for predicting spatio-temporal patterns of species assemblages

Two different approaches currently prevail for predicting spatial patterns of species assemblages. The first approach (macroecological modelling, MEM) focuses directly on realised properties of species assemblages, whereas the second approach (stacked species distribution modelling, S-SDM) starts with constituent species to approximate assemblage properties. Here, we propose to unify the two approaches in a single 'spatially-explicit species assemblage modelling' (SESAM) framework. This framework uses relevant species source pool designations, macroecological factors, and ecological assembly rules to constrain predictions of the richness and composition of species assemblages obtained by stacking predictions of individual species distributions. We believe that such a framework could prove useful in many theoretical and applied disciplines of ecology and evolution, both for improving our basic understanding of species assembly across spatio-temporal scales and for anticipating expected consequences of local, regional or global environmental changes. In this paper, we propose such a framework and call for further developments and testing across a broad range of community types in a variety of environments.

Parameter estimation for the distribution of single cell lag times.

In Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessment, it is vital to understand how lag times of individual cells are distributed over a bacterial population. Such identified distributions can be used to predict the time by which, in a growth-supporting environment, a few pathogenic cells can multiply to a poisoning concentration level. We model the lag time of a single cell, inoculated into a new environment, by the delay of the growth function characterizing the generated subpopulation. We introduce an easy-to-implement procedure, based on the method of moments, to estimate the parameters of the distribution of single cell lag times. The advantage of the method is especially apparent for cases where the initial number of cells is small and random, and the culture is detectable only in the exponential growth phase.

Exploring models for the length of stay distribution.

Diagnosis Related Groups (DRG) are frequently used to standardize the comparison of consumption variables, such as length of stay (LOS). In order to be reliable, this comparison must control for the presence of outliers, i.e. values far removed from the pattern set by the majority of the data. Indeed, outliers can distort the usual statistical summaries, such as means and variances. A common practice is to trim LOS values according to various empirical rules, but there is little theoretical support for choosing between alternative procedures. This pilot study explores the possibility of describing LOS distributions with parametric models which provide the necessary framework for the use of robust methods.

The effect of sodium tetrathionate stabilization on the distribution of three nuclear matrix proteins in human K562 erythroleukemia cells.

Using both conventional fluorescence and confocal laser scanning microscopy we have investigated whether or not stabilization of isolated human erythroleukemic nuclei with sodium tetrathionate can maintain in the nuclear matrix the same spatial distribution of three polypeptides (M(r) 160 kDa and 125 kDa, previously shown to be components of the internal nuclear matrix plus the 180-kDa nucleolar isoform of DNA topoisomerase II) as seen in permeabilized cells. The incubation of isolated nuclei in the presence of 2 mM sodium tetrathionate was performed at 0 degrees C or 37 degrees C. The matrix fraction retained 20-40% of nuclear protein, depending on the temperature at which the chemical stabilization was executed. Western blot analysis revealed that the proteins studied were completely retained in the high-salt resistant matrix. Indirect immunofluorescence experiments showed that the distribution of the three antigens in the final matrix closely resembled that detected in permeabilized cells, particularly when the stabilization was performed at 37 degrees C. This conclusion was also strengthened by analysis of cells, isolated nuclei and the nuclear matrix by means of confocal laser scanning microscopy. We conclude that sodium tetrathionate stabilization of isolated nuclei does not alter the spatial distribution of some nuclear matrix proteins.

Distribution of neuronal and metabolic markers in the human auditory cortex

SUMMARY The human auditory cortex, located on the supratemporal plane of the temporal lobe, is divided in a primary auditory area and several non-primary areas surrounding it. These different areas show anatomical and functional differences. Many studies have focussed on auditory areas in non-human primates, using investigation techniques such as electrophysiological recordings, tracing of neural connections, or immunohistochemical and histochemical staining. Some of these studies have suggested parallel and hierarchical organization of the cortical auditory areas as well as subcortical auditory relays. In humans, only few studies have investigated these regions immunohistochemically, but activation and lesion studies speak in favour of parallel and hierarchical organization, very similar to that of non-human primates. Calcium-binding proteins and metabolic markers were used to investigate possible correlates of hierarchical and parallel organization in man. Calcium-binding proteins, parvalbumin, calretinin and calbindin, modulate the concentration of intracellular free calcium ions and were found in distinct subpopulations of GABAergic neurons in non-human primates species. In our study, their distribution showed several differences between auditory areas: the primary auditory area was darkly stained for both parvalbumin and calbindin, and their expression rapidly decreased while moving away from the primary area. This staining pattern suggests a hierarchical organization of the areas, in which the more darkly stained areas could correspond to an earlier integration level and the areas showing light staining may correspond to higher level integration areas. Parallel organization of primary and non-primary auditory areas was suggested by the complementarity, within a given area, between parvalbumin and calbindin expression across layers. To investigate the possible differences in the energetic metabolism of the cortical auditory areas, several metabolic markers were used: cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 were used as oxidative metabolism markers and LDH5 was used as glycolytic metabolism marker. The results obtained show a difference in the expression of enzymes involved in oxidative metabolism between areas. In the primary auditory area the oxidative metabolism markers were maximally expressed in layer IV. In contrast, higher order areas showed maximal staining in supragranular layers. The expression of LDH5 varied in patches, but did not differ between the different hierarchical auditory areas. The distribution of the two LDH enzymes isoforms also provides information about cellular aspects of metabolic organization, since neurons expressed the LDH1 isoform whereas astrocytes express primarily LDH5, but some astrocytes also contained the LDH1 isoform. This cellular distribution pattern supports the hypothesis of the existence of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle, previously suggested in rodent studies, and in particular of lactate transfer from astrocytes, which produce lactate from the glucose obtained from the circulation, to neurons that use lactate as energy substrate. In conclusion, the hypothesis of parallel and hierarchical organization of the auditory areas can be supported by CaBPs, cytochrome oxidase and LDH1 distribution. Moreover, the two LDHs cellular distribution pattern support the hypothesis of an astrocyte-neuron lactate shuttle in human cortex.

La capacité de travail dans les expertises des centres d'observation médicale AI : distribution, précision, concordance.

[Table des matières] Résumé. Zusammenfassung. 1. Introduction. 2. Objectifs. 3. Méthodologie. 4. Résultats. 4.1. Population analysée. 4.2. Distribution de la capacité de travail. 4.3. Précision de la capacité de travail. 4.4. Concordance entre texte de l'expertise et feuille statistique. 4.5. Concordance entre degré d'activité et capacité de travail actuelle. 4.6. Dynamique de la capacité de travail. 4.7. Caractère de la décision. 5. Discussion. 6. Conclusions et recommandations. 7. Bibliographie. 8. Annexes (1-3).

Bioclimatic constraints to Andean cat distribution: a modelling application for rare species

AimTo identify the bioclimatic niche of the endangered Andean cat (Leopardus jacobita), one of the rarest and least known felids in the world, by developing a species distribution model.LocationSouth America, High Andes and Patagonian steppe. Peru, Bolivia, Chile, Argentina.MethodsWe used 108 Andean cat records to build the models, and 27 to test them, applying the Maxent algorithm to sets of uncorrelated bioclimatic variables from global databases, including elevation. We based our biogeographical interpretations on the examination of the predicted geographic range, the modelled response curves and latitudinal variations in climatic variables associated with the locality data.ResultsSimple bioclimatic models for Andean cats were highly predictive with only 3-4 explanatory variables. The climatic niche of the species was defined by extreme diurnal variations in temperature, cold minimum and moderate maximum temperatures, and aridity, characteristic not only of the Andean highlands but also of the Patagonian steppe. Argentina had the highest representation of suitable climates, and Chile the lowest. The most favourable conditions were centrally located and spanned across international boundaries. Discontinuities in suitable climatic conditions coincided with three biogeographical barriers associated with climatic or topographic transitions.Main conclusionsSimple bioclimatic models can produce useful predictions of suitable climatic conditions for rare species, including major biogeographical constraints. In our study case, these constraints are also known to affect the distribution of other Andean species and the genetic structure of Andean cat populations. We recommend surveys of areas with suitable climates and no Andean cat records, including the corridor connecting two core populations. The inclusion of landscape variables at finer scales, crucially the distribution of Andean cat prey, would contribute to refine our predictions for conservation applications.

Correction: Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Obese Women.

This corrects the article on p. e73445 in vol. 8.]. This corrects the article "Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Non-Obese Women" , e73445. There was an error in the title of the article. The correct version of the title in the article is: Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Obese Women The correct citation is: Martin F-PJ, Montoliu I, Collino S, Scherer M, Guy P, et al. (2013) Topographical Body Fat Distribution Links to Amino Acid and Lipid Metabolism in Healthy Obese Women. PLoS ONE 8(9): e73445. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0073445

Distribution of hospital admissions in a middle-income country of the African region

Introduction: Few studies have reported the distribution of all hospital admissions at the entire country level in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). We examined this question in Seychelles, a rapidly developing small island state in the Africa region, in which access to health care is provided free of charge to all inhabitants through a national health system and all hospital admissions are routinely registered. Methods: Based on all admissions to all hospitals in Seychelles in 2005-2008, we calculated the distribution of hospital admissions, age at admission, length of stay and bed occupancy (i.e. cumulated number of patients * number of days spent in all hospitals) according to both hospital departments and broad causes of diseases (using codes of the ICD-10 classification of diseases). Results: Bed occupancy was largest in the surgical wards (36.7% of all days spent in all hospitals), followed by the medical wards (24.3%), gynecology/obstetrics wards (18.4%), pediatric wards (11.2%), and psychiatric wards (7.2%). According to broad causes of diseases/conditions, bed occupancy was highest for obstetrics/gynecology conditions (19.9% of all days spent at hospital), mental diseases (8.6%), cardiovascular diseases (8.1%), upper aerodigestive/pulmonary diseases (8%), infectious/parasitic diseases (8%), gastrointestinal diseases (7.2%), and urogenital diseases (6.7%). Adjusted to 100'000 population, 153 hospital beds are needed every day, including 31 for obstetrics/gynecologic conditions, 13 for mental diseases, 12 for cardiovascular diseases, 12 for upper aerodigestive diseases, 12 for infectious/parasitic diseases, and 11 for gastrointestinal diseases. Conclusion: Our findings give a good indication of the overall distribution of admissions according to both hospital departments and broad causes of diseases in a middle-income country. These findings provide important information for health care planning at the national level

Predicted effect of climate change on the invasibility and distribution of the Western corn root-worm

1 Insect pests, biological invasions and climate change are considered to representmajor threats to biodiversity, ecosystem functioning, agriculture and forestry.Deriving hypothesis of contemporary and/or future potential distributions of insectpests and invasive species is becoming an important tool for predicting the spatialstructure of potential threats.2 The western corn rootworm (WCR) Diabrotica virgifera virgifera LeConte is apest of maize in North America that has invaded Europe in recent years, resultingin economic costs in terms of maize yields in both continents. The present studyaimed to estimate the dynamics of potential areas of invasion by the WCR under aclimate change scenario in the Northern Hemisphere. The areas at risk under thisscenario were assessed by comparing, using complementary approaches, the spatialprojections of current and future areas of climatic favourability of the WCR. Spatialhypothesis were generated with respect to the presence records in the native rangeof the WCR and physiological thresholds from previous empirical studies.3 We used a previously developed protocol specifically designed to estimatethe climatic favourability of the WCR. We selected the most biologicallyrelevant climatic predictors and then used multidimensional envelope (MDE) andMahalanobis distances (MD) approaches to derive potential distributions for currentand future climatic conditions.4 The results obtained showed a northward advancement of the upper physiologicallimit as a result of climate change, which might increase the strength of outbreaksat higher latitudes. In addition, both MDE and MD outputs predict the stability ofclimatic favourability for the WCR in the core of the already invaded area in Europe,which suggests that this zone would continue to experience damage from this pestin Europe.

Assessing risks of multiple sclerosis therapies.

Over the last two decades, thanks to the discovery of several pharmaceutical agents, multiple sclerosis (MS) has been transformed into a treatable disorder although the degree of therapeutic response may vary considerably. As more medications find their entry into the MS market, a clinician faces a mounting challenge of comparing risk and benefit profiles of various agents in an attempt to find the best treatment approach for each individual patient. In this review, we aim to summarize the available data on safety profiles of available MS therapies while focusing mostly on serious medication specific potential adverse events without discussing the teratogenic potential of each agent (unless there is a black box warning) or hypersensitivity reactions. Our goal is to provide a clinician with guidance on assuring the appropriate safety monitoring for patients treated with one of the agents discussed. We also comment on the future of risk management in MS and discuss possible enhancements to the current model of drug approval process and general strategies to improve the patient safety.