180 resultados para Risk Impact


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A number of geophysical methods, such as ground-penetrating radar (GPR), have the potential to provide valuable information on hydrological properties in the unsaturated zone. In particular, the stochastic inversion of such data within a coupled geophysical-hydrological framework may allow for the effective estimation of vadose zone hydraulic parameters and their corresponding uncertainties. A critical issue in stochastic inversion is choosing prior parameter probability distributions from which potential model configurations are drawn and tested against observed data. A well chosen prior should reflect as honestly as possible the initial state of knowledge regarding the parameters and be neither overly specific nor too conservative. In a Bayesian context, combining the prior with available data yields a posterior state of knowledge about the parameters, which can then be used statistically for predictions and risk assessment. Here we investigate the influence of prior information regarding the van Genuchten-Mualem (VGM) parameters, which describe vadose zone hydraulic properties, on the stochastic inversion of crosshole GPR data collected under steady state, natural-loading conditions. We do this using a Bayesian Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) inversion approach, considering first noninformative uniform prior distributions and then more informative priors derived from soil property databases. For the informative priors, we further explore the effect of including information regarding parameter correlation. Analysis of both synthetic and field data indicates that the geophysical data alone contain valuable information regarding the VGM parameters. However, significantly better results are obtained when we combine these data with a realistic, informative prior.

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In IVF around 70% of embryos fail to implant. Often more than one embryo is transferred in order to enhance the chances of pregnancy, but this is at the price of an increased multiple pregnancy risk. In the aim to increase the success rate with a single embryo, research projects on prognostic factors of embryo viability have been initiated, but no marker has found a routine clinical application to date. Effects of soluble human leukocyte antigen-G (sHLA-G) on both NK cell activity and on Th1/Th2 cytokine balance suggest a role in the embryo implantation process, but the relevance of sHLA-G measurements in embryo culture medium and in follicular fluid (FF) are inconsistent to date. In this study, we have investigated the potential of sHLA-G in predicting the achievement of a pregnancy after IVF-ICSI in a large number of patients (n = 221). sHLA-G was determined in media and in FF by ELISA. In both FF and embryo medium, no significant differences in sHLA-G concentrations were observed between the groups "pregnancy" and "implantation failure", or between the groups "ongoing" versus "miscarried pregnancies". Our results do not favour routine sHLA-G determinations in the FF nor in embryo conditioned media, with the current assay technology available.

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The dic(9;20)(p13.2;q11.2) is reported to be present in ∼2% of childhood B-cell precursor acute lymphoblastic leukemia (BCP ALL). However, it easily escapes detection by G-banding analysis and its true prevalence is hence unknown. We performed interphase fluorescence in situ hybridization analyses-in a three-step manner-using probes for: (i) CDKN2A at 9p21, (ii) 20p and 20q subtelomeres and (iii) cen9 and cen20. Out of 1033 BCP ALLs diagnosed from 2001 to 2006, 533 were analyzed; 16% (84/533) displayed 9p21 deletions, of which 30% (25/84) had dic(9;20). Thus, dic(9;20)-positivity was found in 4.7% (25/533), making it the third most common genetic subgroup after high hyperdiploidy and t(12;21)(p13;q22). The dic(9;20) was associated with a female predominance and an age peak at 3 years; 18/25 (72%) were allocated to non-standard risk treatment at diagnosis. Including cases detected by G-banding alone, 29 dic(9;20)-positive cases were treated according to the NOPHO ALL 2000 protocol. Relapses occurred in 24% (7/29) resulting in a 5-year event-free survival of 0.69, which was significantly worse than for t(12;21) (0.87; P=0.002) and high hyperdiploidy (0.82; P=0.04). We conclude that dic(9;20) is twice as common as previously surmised, with many cases going undetected by G-banding analysis, and that dic(9;20) should be considered a non-standard risk abnormality.

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Lake Geneva is one of the largest European lakes with a surface area of 580 km2. Its catchment area covers 7400 km2, of which approximately 20% is arable land. Monitoring campaigns have been carried out in 2004 and 2005 to determine the contamination of the lake by pesticides. The results highlight the widespread presence of herbicides in water, the measured concentrations for most substances remaining constant in 2004 and 2005. However, for some individual herbicides the concentrations increased drastically (e.g., the herbicide foramsulfuron). We assessed the environmental risk of the herbicides detected in the lake using water quality criteria recently determined for the Swiss environmental protection agency. Furthermore, we assessed the risk of herbicide mixtures, grouped based upon their mode of action. Generally, the risk estimated for all single substances is low, except for some sulfonylurea compounds. For these substances, the measured concentrations are higher than the predicted no-effect concentration. Impact on the flora of the lake can therefore not be excluded. When mixtures of pesticides with similar mode of action are taken into account, the risk remains lower than the mixture water quality criteria for all groups, but can reach as high as one third of this quality criteria. A further step would therefore be to assess the risk of the total pesticide mixture, including similar and dissimilar modes of action.

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BACKGROUND: Community-acquired respiratory viral infections (RVIs) are common in lung transplant patients and may be associated with acute rejection and bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS). The use of sensitive molecular methods that can simultaneously detect a large panel of respiratory viruses may help better define their effects. METHODS: Lung transplant recipients undergoing serial surveillance and diagnostic bronchoalveolar lavages (BALs) during a period of 3 years were enrolled. BAL samples underwent multiplex testing for a panel of 19 respiratory viral types/subtypes using the Luminex xTAG respiratory virus panel assay. RESULTS: Demographics, symptoms, and forced expiratory volume in 1 sec were prospectively collected for 93 lung transplant recipients enrolled. Mean number of BAL samples was 6.2+/-3.1 per patient. A respiratory virus was isolated in 48 of 93 (51.6%) patients on at least one BAL sample. Of 81 positive samples, the viruses isolated included rhinovirus (n=46), parainfluenza 1 to 4 (n=17), coronavirus (n=11), influenza (n=4), metapneumovirus (n=4), and respiratory syncytial virus (n=2). Biopsy-proven acute rejection (> or =grade 2) or decline in forced expiratory volume in 1 sec > or =20% occurred in 16 of 48 (33.3%) patients within 3 months of RVI when compared with 3 of 45 (6.7%) RVI-negative patients within a comparable time frame (P=0.001). No significant difference was seen in incidence of acute rejection between symptomatic and asymptomatic patients. Biopsy-proven obliterative bronchiolitis or BOS was diagnosed in 10 of 16 (62.5%) patients within 1 year of infection. CONCLUSION: Community-acquired RVIs are frequently detected in BAL samples from lung transplant patients. In a significant percentage of patients, symptomatic or asymptomatic viral infection is a trigger for acute rejection and obliterative bronchiolitis/BOS.

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We assessed the impact of antiviral prophylaxis and preemptive therapy on the incidence and outcomes of cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease in a nationwide prospective cohort of solid organ transplant recipients. Risk factors associated with CMV disease and graft failure-free survival were analyzed using Cox regression models. One thousand two hundred thirty-nine patients transplanted from May 2008 until March 2011 were included; 466 (38%) patients received CMV prophylaxis and 522 (42%) patients were managed preemptively. Overall incidence of CMV disease was 6.05% and was linked to CMV serostatus (D+/R- vs. R+, hazard ratio [HR] 5.36 [95% CI 3.14-9.14], pâeuro0/00<âeuro0/000.001). No difference in the incidence of CMV disease was observed in patients receiving antiviral prophylaxis as compared to the preemptive approach (HR 1.16 [95% CI 0.63-2.17], pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.63). CMV disease was not associated with a lower graft failure-free survival (HR 1.27 [95% CI 0.64-2.53], pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.50). Nevertheless, patients followed by the preemptive approach had an inferior graft failure-free survival after a median of 1.05 years of follow-up (HR 1.63 [95% CI 1.01-2.64], pâeuro0/00=âeuro0/000.044). The incidence of CMV disease in this cohort was low and not influenced by the preventive strategy used. However, patients on CMV prophylaxis were more likely to be free from graft failure.

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BACKGROUND: We assessed the impact of a multicomponent worksite health promotion program for0 reducing cardiovascular risk factors (CVRF) with short intervention, adjusting for regression towards the mean (RTM) affecting such nonexperimental study without control group. METHODS: A cohort of 4,198 workers (aged 42 +/- 10 years, range 16-76 years, 27% women) were analyzed at 3.7-year interval and stratified by each CVRF risk category (low/medium/high blood pressure [BP], total cholesterol [TC], body mass index [BMI], and smoking) with RTM and secular trend adjustments. Intervention consisted of 15 min CVRF screening and individualized counseling by health professionals to medium- and high-risk individuals, with eventual physician referral. RESULTS: High-risk groups participants improved diastolic BP (-3.4 mm Hg [95%CI: -5.1, -1.7]) in 190 hypertensive patients, TC (-0.58 mmol/l [-0.71, -0.44]) in 693 hypercholesterolemic patients, and smoking (-3.1 cig/day [-3.9, -2.3]) in 808 smokers, while systolic BP changes reflected RTM. Low-risk individuals without counseling deteriorated TC and BMI. Body weight increased uniformly in all risk groups (+0.35 kg/year). CONCLUSIONS: In real-world conditions, short intervention program participants in high-risk groups for diastolic BP, TC, and smoking improved their CVRF, whereas low-risk TC and BMI groups deteriorated. Future programs may include specific advises to low-risk groups to maintain a favorable CVRF profile.

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BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Previous studies have postulated that poststroke depression (PSD) might be related to cumulative vascular brain pathology rather than to the location and severity of a single macroinfarct. We performed a detailed analysis of all types of microvascular lesions and lacunes in 41 prospectively documented and consecutively autopsied stroke cases. METHODS: Only cases with first-onset depression <2 years after stroke were considered as PSD in the present series. Diagnosis of depression was established prospectively using DSM-IV criteria for major depression. Neuropathological evaluation included bilateral semiquantitative assessment of microvascular ischemic pathology and lacunes; statistical analysis included Fisher exact test, Mann-Whitney U test, and regression models. RESULTS: Macroinfarct site was not related to the occurrence of PSD for any of the locations studied. Thalamic and basal ganglia lacunes occurred significantly more often in PSD cases. Higher lacune scores in basal ganglia, thalamus, and deep white matter were associated with an increased PSD risk. In contrast, microinfarct and diffuse or periventricular demyelination scores were not increased in PSD. The combined lacune score (thalamic plus basal ganglia plus deep white matter) explained 25% of the variability of PSD occurrence. CONCLUSIONS: The cumulative vascular burden resulting from chronic accumulation of lacunar infarcts within the thalamus, basal ganglia, and deep white matter may be more important than single infarcts in the prediction of PSD.

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BACKGROUND: The burden of enterococcal infections has increased over the last decades with vancomycin-resistant enterococci (VRE) being a major health problem. Solid organ transplantation is considered as a risk factor. However, little is known about the relevance of enterococci in solid organ transplantation recipients in areas with a low VRE prevalence. METHODS: We examined the epidemiology of enterococcal events in patients followed in the Swiss Transplant Cohort Study between May 2008 and September 2011 and analyzed risk factors for infection, aminopenicillin resistance, treatment, and outcome. RESULTS: Of the 1234 patients, 255 (20.7%) suffered from 392 enterococcal events (185 [47.2%] infections, 205 [52.3%] colonizations, and 2 events with missing clinical information). Only 2 isolates were VRE. The highest infection rates were found early after liver transplantation (0.24/person-year) consisting in 58.6% of Enterococcus faecium. The highest colonization rates were documented in lung transplant recipients (0.33/person-year), with 46.5% E. faecium. Age, prophylaxis with a betalactam antibiotic, and liver transplantation were significantly associated with infection. Previous antibiotic treatment, intensive care unit stay, and lung transplantation were associated with aminopenicillin resistance. Only 4/205 (2%) colonization events led to an infection. Adequate treatment did not affect microbiological clearance rates. Overall mortality was 8%; no deaths were attributable to enterococcal events. CONCLUSIONS: Enterococcal colonizations and infections are frequent in transplant recipients. Progression from colonization to infection is rare. Therefore, antibiotic treatment should be used restrictively in colonization. No increased mortality because of enterococcal infection was noted.

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A simulation model of the effects of hormone replacement therapy (HRT) on hip fractures and their consequences is based on a population of 100,000 post-menopausal women. This cohort is confronted with literature derived probabilities of cancers (endometrium or breast, which are contra-indications to HRT), hip fracture, disability requiring nursing home or home care, and death. Administration of HRT for life prevents 55,5% of hip fractures, 22,6% of years with home care and 4,4% of years in nursing homes. If HRT is administered for 15 years, these results are 15,5%, 10% and 2,2%, respectively. A slight gain in life expectancy is observed for both durations of HRT. The net financial loss in the simulated population is 222 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.25) for lifelong administration of HRT, and 153 million Swiss Francs (cost/benefit ratio 1.42) if HRT is administered during 15 years.

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Through its classic effects on sodium and potassium homeostasis, aldosterone, when produced in excess, is associated with the development of hypertension and hence with higher cardiovascular and renal risk. In recent years, experimental and epidemiologic data have suggested that aldosterone also may be linked to high cardiovascular risk independently of its effects on blood pressure. Thus, aldosterone has been associated with obesity and metabolic syndrome in selected populations, and these associations may further contribute to the higher cardiovascular risk of subjects with elevated aldosterone levels. Moreover, aldosterone has been reported to promote inflammation, oxidative stress, and fibrosis in a number of tissues. Clinical evidence indicates that patients with primary hyperaldosteronism have a higher risk of developing cardiovascular and renal complications than patients with essential hypertension who have the same level of blood pressure. Aldosterone receptor blockade has been shown to lower cardiovascular mortality after myocardial infarction and in patients with congestive heart failure. Some studies have also demonstrated that aldosterone blockade could have a favorable impact on the progression of renal disease. However, prospective interventional trials are needed to further evaluate the impact of blockade of aldosterone on cardiovascular risk.

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There is much policy interest in the possible linkages that might exist between land use and downstream fluvial flood risk. On the one hand, this position is sustained by observations from plot- and field-scale studies that suggest land management does affect runoff. On the other, upscaling these effects to show that land-management activities impact upon flood risk at larger catchment scales has proved to be elusive. This review considers the reasons for why this upscaling is problematic. We argue that, rather than it reflecting methodological challenges associated with the difficulties of modelling hydrological processes over very large areas and during extreme runoff events, it reflects the fact that any linkage between land management and flood risk cannot be generalized and taken out of its specific spatial (catchment) and temporal (flood event) context. We use Sayer's (1992) notion of a `chaotic conception' to describe the belief that there is a simple and general association between land management and downstream flood risk rather than the impacts of land management being spatially and temporally contingent in relation to the particular geographical location, time period and scale being considered. Our argument has important practical consequences because it implies that land-management activities to reduce downstream flood risk will be different to traditional flood-reduction interventions such as levees. The purpose of demonstration projects then needs careful consideration such that conclusions made for one project are not transferred uncritically to other scales of analysis or geographical locations.

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BACKGROUND: Exposure to intermittent hypoxia (IH) may enhance cardiac function and protects heart against ischemia-reperfusion (I/R) injury. To elucidate the underlying mechanisms, we developed a cardioprotective IH model that was characterized at hemodynamic, biochemical and molecular levels. METHODS: Mice were exposed to 4 daily IH cycles (each composed of 2-min at 6-8% O2 followed by 3-min reoxygenation for 5 times) for 14 days, with normoxic mice as controls. Mice were then anesthetized and subdivided in various subgroups for analysis of contractility (pressure-volume loop), morphology, biochemistry or resistance to I/R (30-min occlusion of the left anterior descending coronary artery (LAD) followed by reperfusion and measurement of the area at risk and infarct size). In some mice, the phosphatidylinositide 3-kinase (PI3K) inhibitor wortmannin was administered (24 µg/kg ip) 15 min before LAD. RESULTS: We found that IH did not induce myocardial hypertrophy; rather both contractility and cardiac function improved with greater number of capillaries per unit volume and greater expression of VEGF-R2, but not of VEGF. Besides increasing the phosphorylation of protein kinase B (Akt) and the endothelial isoform of NO synthase with respect to control, IH reduced the infarct size and post-LAD proteins carbonylation, index of oxidative damage. Administration of wortmannin reduced the level of Akt phosphorylation and worsened the infarct size. CONCLUSION: We conclude that the PI3K/Akt pathway is crucial for IH-induced cardioprotection and may represent a viable target to reduce myocardial I/R injury.

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Rapport de synthèse Objectifs : Évaluer l'impact clinique de femmes infectées par de multiples papillomavirus human (HPV) à haut risque dont le HPV 16 en comparaison de l'évolution de femmes infectées par du HPV 16 seul. Méthode : 169 femmes ont été classifiées en trois groupes, dépendant de leur profile HPV: HPV-16 seul, HPV-16 et un HPV de type bas risque, HPV-16 et un autre HPV à haut risque. Le HPV-DNA des frottis cervicaux a été analysé par polymerase chain reaction (PCR) et reverse line blot hybridization (RLBH). Toutes les femmes ont été suivies à la consultation de colposcopie pour une durée de 24 mois ou plus. La prise en charge s'est faite selon les recommandations de Bethesda. Résultats : Les femmes infectées par du HPV 16 et un autre HPV à haut risque n'ont présenté aucun changement voire une progression de leur dysplasie en comparaison des femmes des autres groupes (RR: 1.39; 95%CI: 1.07 à 1.82; p value: 0.02 à 6 mois; RR: 2.10; 95%CI: 1.46 à 3.02; p value: <0.001 à 12 mois; RR: 1.82; 95%CI: 1.21 à 2.72; p value: 0.004 à 24 mois). Conclusions : Les femmes présentant une co-infection par du HPV 16 ainsi qu'un autre HPV de haut risque voient leur risque d'évolution défavorable augmenter.

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OBJECTIVES: The aim of this systematic review is to evaluate, analysing the dental literature, whether: * Patients on intravenous (IV) or oral bisphosphonates (BPs) can receive oral implant therapy and what could be the risk of developing bisphosphonate-related osteonecrosis of the jaw (BRONJ)? * Osseointegrated implants could be affected by BP therapy. MATERIAL AND METHODS: A Medline search was conducted and all publications fulfilling the inclusion and exclusion criteria from 1966 until December 2008 were included in the review. Moreover, the Cochrane Data Base of Systematic Reviews, and the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials and EMBASE (from 1980 to December 2008) were searched for English-language articles published between 1966 and 2008. Literature search was completed by a hand research accessing the references cited in all identified publications. RESULTS: The literature search rendered only one prospective and three retrospective studies. The prospective controlled non-randomized clinical study followed patients with and without BP medication up to 36 months after implant therapy. The patients in the experimental group had been on oral BPs before implant therapy for periods ranging between 1 and 4 years. None of the patients developed BRONJ and implant outcome was not affected by the BP medication. The three selected retrospective studies (two case-controls and one case series) yielded very similar results. All have followed patients on oral BPs after implant therapy, with follow-up ranging between 2 and 4 years. BRONJ was never reported and implant survival rates ranged between 95% and 100%. The literature search on BRONJ including guidelines and recommendations found 59 papers, from which six were retrieved. Among the guidelines, there is a consensus on contraindicating implants in cancer patients under IV-BPs and not contraindicating dental implants in patients under oral-BPs for osteoporosis. CONCLUSIONS: From the analysis of the one prospective and the three retrospective series (217 patients), the placement of an implant may be considered a safe procedure in patients taking oral BPs for <5 years with regard to the occurrence of BRONJ since in these studies no BRONJ has been reported. Moreover, the intake of oral-BPs did not influence short-term (1-4 years) implant survival rates.