404 resultados para Predictive Monitoring


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To ensure successful treatment, HIV patients must maintain a high degree of medication adherence over time. Since August 2004, patients who are (or are at risk of) experiencing problems with their HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART) have been referred by their physicians to an interdisciplinary HIV-adherence program. The program consists of a multifactorial intervention along with electronic drug monitoring (MEMS(TM)). The pharmacists organize individualized semi-structured motivational interviews based on cognitive, emotional, behavioral, and social issues. At the end of each session, the patient brings an adherence report to the physician. This enables the physician to use the adherence results to evaluate the treatment plan. The aim of this study was to retrospectively analyze this on-going interdisciplinary HIV-adherence program. All patients who were included between August 2004 and the end of April 2008 were analyzed. One hundred and four patients were included (59% women, median age 39 (31.0, 46.0) years, 42% black ethnicity). Eighty (77%) patients were ART-experienced patients and 59% had a protease inhibitor-based treatment. The retention rate was high (92%) in the program. Patient inclusion in this HIV-adherence program was determined by patient issues for naive patients and by nonadherence or suboptimal clinical outcomes for ART-experienced patients. The median time spent by a subject at the pharmacy was 35 (25.0, 48.0) minutes, half for the medication handling and half for the interview. The adherence results showed a persistence of 87% and an execution of 88%. Proportion of undetectable subjects increased during study. In conclusion, retention and persistence rates were high in this highly selected problematic population.

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Monitoring of internal exposure for nuclear medicine workers requires frequent measurements due to the short physical half-lives of most radionuclides used in this field. The aim of this study was to develop screening measurements performed at the workplace by local staff using standard laboratory instrumentation, to detect whether potential intake has occurred. Such measurements do not enable to determine the committed effective dose, but are adequate to verify that a given threshold is not exceeded. For radioiodine, i.e. (123)I, (124)I, (125)I and (131)I, a calibrated surface contamination monitor is placed in front of the thyroid to detect whether the activity threshold has been exceeded. For radionuclides with very short physical half-lives (≤6 h), such as (99m)Tc and those used in positron emission tomography  imaging, i.e. (11)C, (15)O, (18)F and (68)Ga, screening procedures consist in performing daily measurements of the ambient dose rate in front of the abdomen. Other gamma emitters used for imaging, i.e. (67)Ga, (111)In and (201)Tl, are measured with a scintillation detector located in front of the thorax. For pure beta emitters, i.e. (90)Y and (169)Er, as well as beta emitters with low-intensity gamma rays, i.e. (153)Sm, (177)Lu, (186)Re and (188)Re, the procedure consists in measuring hand contamination immediately after use. In Switzerland, screening procedures have been adopted by most nuclear medicine services since such measurements enable an acceptable monitoring while taking into account practical and economic considerations.

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Rapport de Synthèse : Introduction : Depuis plus de 50 ans, les fistules artérioveineuses radiocéphaliques (FAV) restent le meilleur accès d'hémodialyse en termes de perméabilité et de complications. Néanmoins, l'échec précoce dû aux thromboses ou à la non maturation entraîne leur abandon chez un nombre significatif de patients. Cette étude prospective est destinée à investiguer la mesure peropératoire du débit sanguin dans les FAV comme valeur prédictive d'échec précoce. Méthode : Nous avons sélectionné des patients nécessitant la confection d'une FAV pour hémodialyse en se basant sur le repérage veineux effectué par ultrason dans la période préopératoire. La mesure du débit sanguin dans la FAV a été réalisée systématiquement après la réalisation de l'anastomose en utilisant une sonde mesurant le temps de transit des globules rouges. Durant le suivi, le débit a été estimé par ultrason à des intervalles réguliers. Résultats : Nous avons réalisés 58 FAV chez 58 patients avec un suivi moyen de 30 jours. La thrombose et non maturation a été observée chez 8 patients (14%) et 4 patients (7%) respectivement. La valeur de débit peropératoire des fistules sans échec précoce était significativement plus élevée que dans les fistules avec échec précoce (230 v. 98 mL/min ; Ρ = 0.007), tout comme à une semaine (753 vs 228 mL/min ; P=0.0008) et 4 semaines (915 vs 245 mL/min, P<0.0001j. La mesure du débit avec une valeur seuil à 120 mL/min présente une sensibilité de 67%, une spécificité de 75% et une valeur prédictive positive de 91%. Conclusions : Un débit sanguin < 120mL/min a une bonne valeur prédictive positive d'échec précoce dans les FAV. Durant la procédure, cette valeur seuil, doit être utilisée pour sélectionner de manière appropriée les FAV nécessitant durant la même intervention une correction immédiate afin d'améliorer le débit. Une étude consécutive devra investiguer les origines des débits faibles des FAV objectivés durant leur confection.

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BACKGROUND: The impact of preoperative impaired left ventricular ejection fraction (EF) in octogenarians following coronary bypass surgery on short-term survival was evaluated in this study. METHODS: A total of 147 octogenarians (mean age 82.1 ± 1.9 years) with coronary artery diseases underwent elective coronary artery bypass graft between January 2000 and December 2009. Patients were stratified into: Group I (n = 59) with EF >50%, Group II (n = 59) with 50% > EF >30% and in Group III (n = 29) with 30% > EF. RESULTS: There was no difference among the three groups regarding incidence of COPD, renal failure, congestive heart failure, diabetes, and preoperative cerebrovascular events. Postoperative atrial fibrillation was the sole independent predictive factor for in-hospital mortality (odds ratio (OR), 18.1); this was 8.5% in Group I, 15.3% in Group II and 10.3% in Group III. Independent predictive factors for mortality during follow up were: decrease of EF during follow-up for more that 5% (OR, 5.2), usage of left internal mammary artery as free graft (OR, 18.1), and EF in follow-up lower than 40% (OR, 4.8). CONCLUSIONS: The results herein suggest acceptable in-hospital as well short-term mortality in octogenarians with impaired EF following coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) and are comparable to recent literature where the mortality of younger patients was up to 15% and short-term mortality up to 40%, respectively. Accordingly, we can also state that in an octogenarian cohort with impaired EF, CABG is a viable treatment with acceptable mortality.

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Résumé Valeur prédictive des anticorps dirigés contre le cytoplasme des neutrophiles (ANCA) dans les vasculites des vaisseaux de petit calibre But du travail : Les vasculites sont des pathologies le plus souvent sévères et parfois létales ; elles nécessitent une reconnaissance et un traitement précoces. Il est donc utile de pouvoir disposer de marqueurs diagnostiques, et éventuellement de marqueurs qui puissent prédire l'activité de la maladie. Les « antineutrophil cytoplasm antibodies » (ANCA) constituent une famille d'autoanticorps dirigés contre des antigènes du cytoplasme des neutrophiles, cellules clés du processus inflammatoire au cours des vasculites. De nombreuses études ont tenté de préciser l'utilité des ANCA dans le diagnostic et le suivi des vasculites avec des résultats contradictoires. Le but de ce travail a été de passer en revue l'évolution clinique des patients suivis dans notre service pour une vasculite à ANCA et évaluer la valeur prédictive des ANCA comme marqueur de récidive. Méthode: Les dossiers médicaux de 36 patients, suivis à notre consultation ambulatoire d'immunologie et allergie du CHUV pour une vasculite à ANCA entre janvier 1990 et décembre 2001, ont été analysés de manière rétrospective afin d'établir une base de données. Les données démographiques, le type de vasculite (granulomatose de Wegener ou polyangéite microscopique) et ses caractéristiques (organes touchés), les traitements reçus, les dosages des ANCA (par immunofluorescence et par ELISA avec détermination des anti-PR3 et/ou anti-MPO), et l'évolution clinique (récidive/rémission) ont été considérés. La valeur pronostique des ANCA dans notre population a été calculée utilisant les valeurs prédictives positive et négative, la likelihood et les odds ratios. La valeur statistique a été examinée par les tests Chi-square test ou Fisher's exact test (valeur significative définie comme p <0.05) à l'aide du programme GraphPad Instat software version 3, San Diego, CA. Résultats : Vingt-trois patients atteints d'une maladie de Wegener et treize d'une polyangéite microscopique ont été suivis pour une durée médiane de cinq ans (entre 1 mois et 16 ans). La plupart des patients ont été traités avec des corticostéroïdes associés à du cyclophosphamide. Une rémission a été obtenue chez 21 patients (91 %) atteints d'une maladie de Wegener, mais 74% ont présenté par la suite une récidive. Tous les patients atteints d'une polyangéite microscopique sont entrés en rémission et 33% ont par la suite récidivé. Une élévation persistante (définie comme supérieure à 6 mois) des ANCA ne s'est pas révélée associée à un risque statistiquement significatif de récidive (p=0.14). En revanche, une élévation soudaine du taux des ANCA s'est démontrée prédictive d'une récidive (table 3). Conclusion : Durant le suivi de certaines vasculites, comme la granulomatose de Wegener et la polyangéite microscopique une élévation des ANCA doit faire redouter une exacerbation de la maladie et, par conséquent, justifie une surveillance accrue.

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Background and objectives In humans, circulating CD4(+)CD25(high) T cells contain mainly regulatory T cells (Treg; FoxP3(+)IL-7R alpha(low)), but a small subset is represented by activated effector T cells (Tact; FoxP3(-)IL-7R alpha(high)). The balance between Tact and Treg may be important after transplantation. The aim of this study was first to analyze and correlate CD4(+)CD25(high) Tact and Treg with the clinical status of kidney transplant recipients and second to study prospectively the effect of two immunosuppressive regimens on Tact/Treg during the first year after transplantation.Design, setting, participants, & measurements CD4(+)CD25(high) Tact and Treg were analyzed by flow cytometry, either retrospectively in 90 patients greater than 1 year after kidney transplantation (cross-sectional analysis) or prospectively in 35 patients receiving two immunosuppressive regimens after kidney transplantation (prospective analysis).Results A higher proportion of Tact and a lower proportion of Treg were found in the majority of kidney recipients. In chronic Immoral rejection, a strikingly higher proportion of Tact was present. A subgroup of stable recipients receiving calcineurin inhibitor-free immunosuppression (mycophenolate mofetil, azathioprine, or sirolimus) had Tact values that were similar to healthy individuals. In the prospective analysis, the proportion of Tact significantly increased in both immunosuppression groups during the first year after transplantation.Conclusions These data highlight distinct patterns in the proportion of circulating Tact depending on the clinical status of kidney recipients. Moreover, the prospective analysis demonstrated an increase in the proportion of Tact, regardless of the immunosuppressive regimen. The measurement of Tact, in addition to Treg, may become a useful immune monitoring tool after kidney transplantation. Clin J Am Soc Nephrol 6: 2025-2033, 2011. doi: 10.2215/CJN.09611010

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Gene expression data from microarrays are being applied to predict preclinical and clinical endpoints, but the reliability of these predictions has not been established. In the MAQC-II project, 36 independent teams analyzed six microarray data sets to generate predictive models for classifying a sample with respect to one of 13 endpoints indicative of lung or liver toxicity in rodents, or of breast cancer, multiple myeloma or neuroblastoma in humans. In total, >30,000 models were built using many combinations of analytical methods. The teams generated predictive models without knowing the biological meaning of some of the endpoints and, to mimic clinical reality, tested the models on data that had not been used for training. We found that model performance depended largely on the endpoint and team proficiency and that different approaches generated models of similar performance. The conclusions and recommendations from MAQC-II should be useful for regulatory agencies, study committees and independent investigators that evaluate methods for global gene expression analysis.

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Laboratory safety data are routinely collected in clinical studies for safety monitoring and assessment. We have developed a truncated robust multivariate outlier detection method for identifying subjects with clinically relevant abnormal laboratory measurements. The proposed method can be applied to historical clinical data to establish a multivariate decision boundary that can then be used for future clinical trial laboratory safety data monitoring and assessment. Simulations demonstrate that the proposed method has the ability to detect relevant outliers while automatically excluding irrelevant outliers. Two examples from actual clinical studies are used to illustrate the use of this method for identifying clinically relevant outliers.

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The number of agents that are potentially effective in the adjuvant treatment of locally advanced resectable colon cancer is increasing. Consequently, it is important to ascertain which subgroups of patients will benefit from a specific treatment. Despite more than two decades of research into the molecular genetics of colon cancer, there is a lack of prognostic and predictive molecular biomarkers with proven utility in this setting. A secondary objective of the Pan European Trials in Adjuvant Colon Cancer-3 trial, which compared irinotecan in combination with 5-fluorouracil and leucovorin in the postoperative treatment of stage III and stage II colon cancer patients, was to undertake a translational research study to assess a panel of putative prognostic and predictive markers in a large colon cancer patient cohort. The Cancer and Leukemia Group B 89803 trial, in a similar design, also investigated the use of prognostic and predictive biomarkers in this setting. In this article, the authors, who are coinvestigators from these trials and performed similar investigations of biomarker discovery in the adjuvant treatment of colon cancer, review the current status of biomarker research in this field, drawing on their experiences and considering future strategies for biomarker discovery in the postgenomic era.

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BACKGROUND: Prevention of cardiovascular disease (CVD) at the individual level should rely on the assessment of absolute risk using population-specific risk tables. OBJECTIVE: To compare the predictive accuracy of the original and the calibrated SCORE functions regarding 10-year cardiovascular risk in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional, population-based study (5773 participants aged 35-74 years). METHODS: The SCORE equation for low-risk countries was calibrated based on the Swiss CVD mortality rates and on the CVD risk factor levels from the study sample. The predicted number of CVD deaths after a 10-year period was computed from the original and the calibrated equations and from the observed cardiovascular mortality for 2003. RESULTS: According to the original and calibrated functions, 16.3 and 15.8% of men and 8.2 and 8.9% of women, respectively, had a 10-year CVD risk > or =5%. Concordance correlation coefficient between the two functions was 0.951 for men and 0.948 for women, both P<0.001. Both risk functions adequately predicted the 10-year cumulative number of CVD deaths: in men, 71 (original) and 74 (calibrated) deaths for 73 deaths when using the CVD mortality rates; in women, 44 (original), 45 (calibrated) and 45 (CVD mortality rates), respectively. Compared to the original function, the calibrated function classified more women and fewer men at high-risk. Moreover, the calibrated function gave better risk estimates among participants aged over 65 years. CONCLUSION: The original SCORE function adequately predicts CVD death in Switzerland, particularly for individuals aged less than 65 years. The calibrated function provides more reliable estimates for older individuals.

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Rare species have restricted geographic ranges, habitat specialization, and/or small population sizes. Datasets on rare species distribution usually have few observations, limited spatial accuracy and lack of valid absences; conversely they provide comprehensive views of species distributions allowing to realistically capture most of their realized environmental niche. Rare species are the most in need of predictive distribution modelling but also the most difficult to model. We refer to this contrast as the "rare species modelling paradox" and propose as a solution developing modelling approaches that deal with a sufficiently large set of predictors, ensuring that statistical models aren't overfitted. Our novel approach fulfils this condition by fitting a large number of bivariate models and averaging them with a weighted ensemble approach. We further propose that this ensemble forecasting is conducted within a hierarchic multi-scale framework. We present two ensemble models for a test species, one at regional and one at local scale, each based on the combination of 630 models. In both cases, we obtained excellent spatial projections, unusual when modelling rare species. Model results highlight, from a statistically sound approach, the effects of multiple drivers in a same modelling framework and at two distinct scales. From this added information, regional models can support accurate forecasts of range dynamics under climate change scenarios, whereas local models allow the assessment of isolated or synergistic impacts of changes in multiple predictors. This novel framework provides a baseline for adaptive conservation, management and monitoring of rare species at distinct spatial and temporal scales.

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Petroleum hydrocarbons are common contaminants in marine and freshwater aquatic habitats, often occurring as a result of oil spillage. Rapid and reliable on-site tools for measuring the bioavailable hydrocarbon fractions, i.e., those that are most likely to cause toxic effects or are available for biodegradation, would assist in assessing potential ecological damage and following the progress of cleanup operations. Here we examined the suitability of a set of different rapid bioassays (2-3 h) using bacteria expressing the LuxAB luciferase to measure the presence of short-chain linear alkanes, monoaromatic and polyaromatic compounds, biphenyls, and DNA-damaging agents in seawater after a laboratory-scale oil spill. Five independent spills of 20 mL of NSO-1 crude oil with 2 L of seawater (North Sea or Mediterranean Sea) were carried out in 5 L glass flasks for periods of up to 10 days. Bioassays readily detected ephemeral concentrations of short-chain alkanes and BTEX (i.e., benzene, toluene, ethylbenzene, and xylenes) in the seawater within minutes to hours after the spill, increasing to a maximum of up to 80 muM within 6-24 h, after which they decreased to low or undetectable levels. The strong decrease in short-chain alkanes and BTEX may have been due to their volatilization or biodegradation, which was supported by changes in the microbial community composition. Two- and three-ring PAHs appeared in the seawater phase after 24 h with a concentration up to 1 muM naphthalene equivalents and remained above 0.5 muM for the duration of the experiment. DNA-damage-sensitive bioreporters did not produce any signal with the oil-spilled aqueous-phase samples, whereas bioassays for (hydroxy)biphenyls showed occasional responses. Chemical analysis for alkanes and PAHs in contaminated seawater samples supported the bioassay data, but did not show the typical ephemeral peaks observed with the bioassays. We conclude that bacterium-based bioassays can be a suitable alternative for rapid on-site quantitative measurement of hydrocarbons in seawater.