Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Combining digital elevation model analysis and run-out modeling to characterize hazard posed by a potentially unstable rock slope at Turtle Mountain, Alberta, Canada

Turtle Mountain in Alberta, Canada has become an important field laboratory for testing different techniques related to the characterization and monitoring of large slope mass movements as the stability of large portions of the eastern face of the mountain is still questionable. In order to better quantify the volumes potentially unstable and the most probable failure mechanisms and potential consequences, structural analysis and runout modeling were preformed. The structural features of the eastern face were investigated using a high resolution digital elevation model (HRDEM). According to displacement datasets and structural observations, potential failure mechanisms affecting different portions of the mountain have been assessed. The volumes of the different potentially unstable blocks have been calculated using the Sloping Local Base Level (SLBL) method. Based on the volume estimation, two and three dimensional dynamic runout analyses have been performed. Calibration of this analysis is based on the experience from the adjacent Frank Slide and other similar rock avalanches. The results will be used to improve the contingency plans within the hazard area.

Stratégies destinées a optimiser l'utilisation des antibiotiques en réanimation [Strategies targeted at optimising antimicrobial therapy in critically ill patients]

Antibiotics are widely used in critical care and adequate empirical treatments has a significant impact on the outcome of many patients. Most nosocomial infections may be due to multidrug-resistant pathogens and requires empirical borad spectrum coverage before identification of the etiologic agents. This is associated with overuse of antibiotics which contributes to the further increase in multidrug-resistances. In this context, new strategies targeted at antibiotic control, such as guidelines and de-escalation are needed to control this evolution.

Energy deficit and length of hospital stay can be reduced by a two-step quality improvement of nutrition therapy: the intensive care unit dietitian can make the difference.

OBJECTIVE: Critically ill patients are at high risk of malnutrition. Insufficient nutritional support still remains a widespread problem despite guidelines. The aim of this study was to measure the clinical impact of a two-step interdisciplinary quality nutrition program. DESIGN: Prospective interventional study over three periods (A, baseline; B and C, intervention periods). SETTING: Mixed intensive care unit within a university hospital. PATIENTS: Five hundred seventy-two patients (age 59 ± 17 yrs) requiring >72 hrs of intensive care unit treatment. INTERVENTION: Two-step quality program: 1) bottom-up implementation of feeding guideline; and 2) additional presence of an intensive care unit dietitian. The nutrition protocol was based on the European guidelines. MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: Anthropometric data, intensive care unit severity scores, energy delivery, and cumulated energy balance (daily, day 7, and discharge), feeding route (enteral, parenteral, combined, none-oral), length of intensive care unit and hospital stay, and mortality were collected. Altogether 5800 intensive care unit days were analyzed. Patients in period A were healthier with lower Simplified Acute Physiologic Scale and proportion of "rapidly fatal" McCabe scores. Energy delivery and balance increased gradually: impact was particularly marked on cumulated energy deficit on day 7 which improved from -5870 kcal to -3950 kcal (p < .001). Feeding technique changed significantly with progressive increase of days with nutrition therapy (A: 59% days, B: 69%, C: 71%, p < .001), use of enteral nutrition increased from A to B (stable in C), and days on combined and parenteral nutrition increased progressively. Oral energy intakes were low (mean: 385 kcal*day, 6 kcal*kg*day ). Hospital mortality increased with severity of condition in periods B and C. CONCLUSION: A bottom-up protocol improved nutritional support. The presence of the intensive care unit dietitian provided significant additional progression, which were related to early introduction and route of feeding, and which achieved overall better early energy balance.

Involuntary treatment of alcohol-dependent patients: a study of 17 consecutive cases of civil commitment.

AIM: To investigate the baseline and follow-up characteristics of a group of alcohol-dependent patients being treated under civil commitment. METHODS: This study involved a cross-sectional comparative analysis of baseline characteristics and a follow-up survey of a group of committed alcoholic patients. The study was undertaken in the Alcohol Unit of a 1,000-bed general and university hospital. The study included 17 consecutive cases of civil commitment (representing 15 patients, of whom 2 were committed twice) and a comparative group of 34 randomly selected age- and sex-matched patients. Baseline characteristics of the cases (at the time of commitment) and of patients from the comparative group were collected from medical records, including sociodemographic data, medical condition, patterns of drinking and number and dates of previous treatments for alcohol-related problems. A structured follow-up interview of the cases provided information on their medical condition, social status, patterns of alcohol use, type and duration of residential treatment as well as their perceptions of commitment. RESULTS: During a 4-year period, our Unit referred 23 cases of alcohol-dependent patients (out of 367) to the Guardianship Authority, requesting civil commitment. On 17 occasions, patients were committed to residential treatment, including 2 patients who underwent commitment on two separate occasions, thus representing a total of 15 different patients. In comparison with age- and sex-matched patients seen at the Unit, the cases were characterized by multiple medical, social and psychological alcohol-related impairments. At the time of follow-up, 14 out of 15 patients were alive, among whom 10 agreed to be interviewed. Eight of these reported complete abstinence, whereas 9 considered their alcohol problem as less severe than before. The average duration of commitment was 29 weeks. The majority of patients retrospectively considered the measure as having been justified and useful. The patients' satisfaction with the decision to commit was higher among women than among men. Health-related quality of life at the time of follow-up, as assessed by the MOS 36-Item Short Form Health Survey questionnaire, was good on average and better than that usually reported by other cohorts of alcoholics undergoing treatment. CONCLUSIONS: The usefulness of residential civil commitment of certain severely impaired alcohol-dependent patients is underscored. This study suggests that civil commitment not only may save the lives of endangered patients but could also be a health-promoting measure that may sometimes allow for recovery from dependence. Unexpectedly, this measure was retrospectively well accepted by many patients, who considered the commitment decision as having been justified and useful.

Attitudes and beliefs of palliative care physicians regarding communication with terminally ill cancer patients.

The subject of communication between palliative care physicians and their patients regarding their diagnosis and prognosis has not been extensively researched. The purpose of this survey was to compare the attitudes and beliefs of palliative care specialists regarding communication with the terminally ill in Europe, South America, and Canada. A sample of palliative care physicians from South America (Argentina and Brazil), French-speaking Europe, and Canada were identified, and posted a questionnaire. Physicians who stated that they practised palliative care at least 30% of their time were considered evaluable as palliative care specialists. Of a total of 272 questionnaires, 228 were returned (84%); and 182/228 (81%) respondents were considered to be palliative care specialists. Palliative care physicians in all three regions believed that cancer patients should be informed of their diagnosis and the terminal nature of their illness. Physicians reported that at least 60% of their patients knew their diagnosis and the terminal stage of their illness in 52% and 24% of cases in South America, and 69% and 38% of cases in Europe, respectively. All physicians agreed that 'do not resuscitate' orders should be present, and should be discussed with the patient in all cases. While 93% of Canadian physicians stated that at least 60% of their patients wanted to know about the terminal stage of their illness, only 18% of South American, and 26% of European physicians said this (P < 0.001). Similar results were found when the physicians were asked the percentage of families who want patients to know the terminal stage of their illness. However, almost all of the physicians agreed that if they had terminal cancer they would like to know. There was a significant association between patient based decision-making and female sex (P = 0.007), older age (P = 0.04), and physicians from Canada and South America (P < 0.001). Finally, in their daily decision making, South American physicians were significantly more likely to support beneficence and justice as compared with autonomy. Canadian physicians were more likely to support autonomy as compared with beneficence. In summary, our findings suggest that there are major regional differences in the attitudes and beliefs of physicians regarding communication at the end of life. More research is badly needed on the attitudes and beliefs of patients, families, and health care professionals in different regions of the world.

Stress ulcer prophylaxis in non-critically ill patients: a prospective evaluation of current practice in a general surgery department.

RATIONALE, AIMS AND OBJECTIVES: There is little evidence regarding the benefit of stress ulcer prophylaxis (SUP) outside a critical care setting. Overprescription of SUP is not devoid of risks. This prospective study aimed to evaluate the use of proton pump inhibitors (PPIs) for SUP in a general surgery department. METHOD: Data collection was performed prospectively during an 8-week period on patients hospitalized in a general surgery department (58 beds) by pharmacists. Patients with a PPI prescription for the treatment of ulcers, gastro-oesophageal reflux disease, oesophagitis or epigastric pain were excluded. Patients admitted twice during the study period were not reincluded. The American Society of Health-System Pharmacists guidelines on SUP were used to assess the appropriateness of de novo PPI prescriptions. RESULTS: Among 255 patients in the study, 138 (54%) received a prophylaxis with PPI, of which 86 (62%) were de novo PPI prescriptions. A total of 129 patients (94%) received esomeprazole (according to the hospital drug policy). The most frequent dosage was at 40 mg once daily. Use of PPI for SUP was evaluated in 67 patients. A total of 53 patients (79%) had no risk factors for SUP. Twelve and two patients had one or two risk factors, respectively. At discharge, PPI prophylaxis was continued in 33% of patients with a de novo PPI prescription. CONCLUSIONS: This study highlights the overuse of PPIs in non-intensive care unit patients and the inappropriate continuation of PPI prescriptions at discharge. Treatment recommendations for SUP are needed to restrict PPI use for justified indications.

Specificities of psychodynamic psychotherapy in the medically ill

Psychodynamic psychotherapy with patients suffering from somatic diseases is based on general principles of psychodynamic understanding, such as the influence of development and biographical elements on patient.s adaptation to illness or the role of defense mechanisms when facing existential threat. However, differences exist, such as the adaptation of the therapeutic setting, which thus loses some of its diagnostic and therapeutic power, or the early emergence of powerful transference, which cannot always be interpreted by the therapist. In addition, psychodynamic psychotherapy in the medically ill has some specificities, which differentiate it from classical psychoanalytic theory. The specificities concern, for example, transference of the medically ill, which is more adequately conceived by concepts of the existential analysis (Daseinsanalyse), or the patient.s loss of a sense of continuity, which needs an understanding beyond psychological theory taking into account philosophical (e.g. phenomenology), anthropological and ethical concepts.

Stage fright: its experience as a problem and coping with it.

PURPOSE AND METHOD: This questionnaire survey of 190 university music students assessed negative feelings of music performance anxiety (MPA) before performing, the experience of stage fright as a problem, and how closely they are associated with each other. The study further investigated whether the experience of stage fright as a problem and negative feelings of MPA predict the coping behavior of the music students. Rarely addressed coping issues were assessed, i.e., self-perceived effectiveness of different coping strategies, knowledge of possible risks and acceptance of substance-based coping strategies, and need for more support.RESULTS: The results show that one-third of the students experienced stage fright as a problem and that this was only moderately correlated with negative feelings of MPA. The experience of stage fright as a problem significantly predicted the frequency of use and the acceptance of medication as a coping strategy. Breathing exercises and self-control techniques were rated as effective as medication. Finally, students expressed a strong need to receive more support (65%) and more information (84%) concerning stage fright.CONCLUSION: Stage fright was experienced as a problem and perceived as having negative career consequences by a considerable percentage of the surveyed students. In addition to a desire for more help and support, the students expressed an openness and willingness to seriously discuss and address the topic of stage fright. This provides a necessary and promising basis for optimal career preparation and, hence, an opportunity to prevent occupational problems in professional musicians. [Authors]

Bioreporters and biosensors for arsenic detection. Biotechnological solutions for a world-wide pollution problem.

A wide variety of whole cell bioreporter and biosensor assays for arsenic detection has been developed over the past decade. The assays permit flexible detection instrumentation while maintaining excellent method of detection limits in the environmentally relevant range of 10-50 μg arsenite per L and below. New emerging trends focus on genetic rewiring of reporter cells and/or integration into microdevices for more optimal detection. A number of case studies have shown realistic field applicability of bioreporter assays.

Optimisation of energy provision with supplemental parenteral nutrition in critically ill patients: a randomised controlled clinical trial.

BACKGROUND: Enteral nutrition (EN) is recommended for patients in the intensive-care unit (ICU), but it does not consistently achieve nutritional goals. We assessed whether delivery of 100% of the energy target from days 4 to 8 in the ICU with EN plus supplemental parenteral nutrition (SPN) could optimise clinical outcome. METHODS: This randomised controlled trial was undertaken in two centres in Switzerland. We enrolled patients on day 3 of admission to the ICU who had received less than 60% of their energy target from EN, were expected to stay for longer than 5 days, and to survive for longer than 7 days. We calculated energy targets with indirect calorimetry on day 3, or if not possible, set targets as 25 and 30 kcal per kg of ideal bodyweight a day for women and men, respectively. Patients were randomly assigned (1:1) by a computer-generated randomisation sequence to receive EN or SPN. The primary outcome was occurrence of nosocomial infection after cessation of intervention (day 8), measured until end of follow-up (day 28), analysed by intention to treat. This trial is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00802503. FINDINGS: We randomly assigned 153 patients to SPN and 152 to EN. 30 patients discontinued before the study end. Mean energy delivery between day 4 and 8 was 28 kcal/kg per day (SD 5) for the SPN group (103% [SD 18%] of energy target), compared with 20 kcal/kg per day (7) for the EN group (77% [27%]). Between days 9 and 28, 41 (27%) of 153 patients in the SPN group had a nosocomial infection compared with 58 (38%) of 152 patients in the EN group (hazard ratio 0·65, 95% CI 0·43-0·97; p=0·0338), and the SPN group had a lower mean number of nosocomial infections per patient (-0·42 [-0·79 to -0·05]; p=0·0248). INTERPRETATION: Individually optimised energy supplementation with SPN starting 4 days after ICU admission could reduce nosocomial infections and should be considered as a strategy to improve clinical outcome in patients in the ICU for whom EN is insufficient. FUNDING: Foundation Nutrition 2000Plus, ICU Quality Funds, Baxter, and Fresenius Kabi.

A Monte Carlo approach to the inverse problem of diffuse pollution risk in agricultural catchments

The hydrological and biogeochemical processes that operate in catchments influence the ecological quality of freshwater systems through delivery of fine sediment, nutrients and organic matter. Most models that seek to characterise the delivery of diffuse pollutants from land to water are reductionist. The multitude of processes that are parameterised in such models to ensure generic applicability make them complex and difficult to test on available data. Here, we outline an alternative - data-driven - inverse approach. We apply SCIMAP, a parsimonious risk based model that has an explicit treatment of hydrological connectivity. we take a Bayesian approach to the inverse problem of determining the risk that must be assigned to different land uses in a catchment in order to explain the spatial patterns of measured in-stream nutrient concentrations. We apply the model to identify the key sources of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) diffuse pollution risk in eleven UK catchments covering a range of landscapes. The model results show that: 1) some land use generates a consistently high or low risk of diffuse nutrient pollution; but 2) the risks associated with different land uses vary both between catchments and between nutrients; and 3) that the dominant sources of P and N risk in the catchment are often a function of the spatial configuration of land uses. Taken on a case-by-case basis, this type of inverse approach may be used to help prioritise the focus of interventions to reduce diffuse pollution risk for freshwater ecosystems. (C) 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Des faux documents d'identité au renseignement forensique : développement d'une approche systématique et transversale du traitement de la donnée forensique à des fins de renseignement criminel

La fabrication, la distribution et l'usage de fausses pièces d'identité constituent une menace pour la sécurité autant publique que privée. Ces faux documents représentent en effet un catalyseur pour une multitude de formes de criminalité, des plus anodines aux formes les plus graves et organisées. La dimension, la complexité, la faible visibilité, ainsi que les caractères répétitif et évolutif de la fraude aux documents d'identité appellent des réponses nouvelles qui vont au-delà d'une approche traditionnelle au cas par cas ou de la stratégie du tout technologique dont la perspective historique révèle l'échec. Ces nouvelles réponses passent par un renforcement de la capacité de comprendre les problèmes criminels que posent la fraude aux documents d'identité et les phénomènes qui l'animent. Cette compréhension est tout bonnement nécessaire pour permettre d'imaginer, d'évaluer et de décider les solutions et mesures les plus appropriées. Elle requière de développer les capacités d'analyse et la fonction de renseignement criminel qui fondent en particulier les modèles d'action de sécurité les plus récents, tels que l'intelligence-led policing ou le problem-oriented policing par exemple. Dans ce contexte, le travail doctoral adopte une position originale en postulant que les fausses pièces d'identité se conçoivent utilement comme la trace matérielle ou le vestige résultant de l'activité de fabrication ou d'altération d'un document d'identité menée par les faussaires. Sur la base de ce postulat fondamental, il est avancé que l'exploitation scientifique, méthodique et systématique de ces traces au travers d'un processus de renseignement forensique permet de générer des connaissances phénoménologiques sur les formes de criminalité qui fabriquent, diffusent ou utilisent les fausses pièces d'identité, connaissances qui s'intègrent et se mettent avantageusement au service du renseignement criminel. A l'appui de l'épreuve de cette thèse de départ et de l'étude plus générale du renseignement forensique, le travail doctoral propose des définitions et des modèles. Il décrit des nouvelles méthodes de profilage et initie la constitution d'un catalogue de formes d'analyses. Il recourt également à des expérimentations et des études de cas. Les résultats obtenus démontrent que le traitement systématique de la donnée forensique apporte une contribution utile et pertinente pour le renseignement criminel stratégique, opérationnel et tactique, ou encore la criminologie. Combiné aux informations disponibles par ailleurs, le renseignement forensique produit est susceptible de soutenir l'action de sécurité dans ses dimensions répressive, proactive, préventive et de contrôle. En particulier, les méthodes de profilage des fausses pièces d'identité proposées permettent de révéler des tendances au travers de jeux de données étendus, d'analyser des modus operandi ou d'inférer une communauté ou différence de source. Ces méthodes appuient des moyens de détection et de suivi des séries, des problèmes et des phénomènes criminels qui s'intègrent dans le cadre de la veille opérationnelle. Ils permettent de regrouper par problèmes les cas isolés, de mettre en évidence les formes organisées de criminalité qui méritent le plus d'attention, ou de produire des connaissances robustes et inédites qui offrent une perception plus profonde de la criminalité. Le travail discute également les difficultés associées à la gestion de données et d'informations propres à différents niveaux de généralité, ou les difficultés relatives à l'implémentation du processus de renseignement forensique dans la pratique. Ce travail doctoral porte en premier lieu sur les fausses pièces d'identité et leur traitement par les protagonistes de l'action de sécurité. Au travers d'une démarche inductive, il procède également à une généralisation qui souligne que les observations ci-dessus ne valent pas uniquement pour le traitement systématique des fausses pièces d'identité, mais pour celui de tout type de trace dès lors qu'un profil en est extrait. Il ressort de ces travaux une définition et une compréhension plus transversales de la notion et de la fonction de renseignement forensique. The production, distribution and use of false identity documents constitute a threat to both public and private security. Fraudulent documents are a catalyser for a multitude of crimes, from the most trivial to the most serious and organised forms. The dimension, complexity, low visibility as well as the repetitive and evolving character of the production and use of false identity documents call for new solutions that go beyond the traditional case-by-case approach, or the technology-focused strategy whose failure is revealed by the historic perspective. These new solutions require to strengthen the ability to understand crime phenomena and crime problems posed by false identity documents. Such an understanding is pivotal in order to be able to imagine, evaluate and decide on the most appropriate measures and responses. Therefore, analysis capacities and crime intelligence functions, which found the most recent policing models such as intelligence-led policing or problem-oriented policing for instance, have to be developed. In this context, the doctoral research work adopts an original position by postulating that false identity documents can be usefully perceived as the material remnant resulting from the criminal activity undertook by forgers, namely the manufacture or the modification of identity documents. Based on this fundamental postulate, it is proposed that a scientific, methodical and systematic processing of these traces through a forensic intelligence approach can generate phenomenological knowledge on the forms of crime that produce, distribute and use false identity documents. Such knowledge should integrate and serve advantageously crime intelligence efforts. In support of this original thesis and of a more general study of forensic intelligence, the doctoral work proposes definitions and models. It describes new profiling methods and initiates the construction of a catalogue of analysis forms. It also leverages experimentations and case studies. Results demonstrate that the systematic processing of forensic data usefully and relevantly contributes to strategic, tactical and operational crime intelligence, and also to criminology. Combined with alternative information available, forensic intelligence may support policing in its repressive, proactive, preventive and control activities. In particular, the proposed profiling methods enable to reveal trends among extended datasets, to analyse modus operandi, or to infer that false identity documents have a common or different source. These methods support the detection and follow-up of crime series, crime problems and phenomena and therefore contribute to crime monitoring efforts. They enable to link and regroup by problems cases that were previously viewed as isolated, to highlight organised forms of crime which deserve greatest attention, and to elicit robust and novel knowledge offering a deeper perception of crime. The doctoral research work discusses also difficulties associated with the management of data and information relating to different levels of generality, or difficulties associated with the implementation in practice of the forensic intelligence process. The doctoral work focuses primarily on false identity documents and their treatment by policing stakeholders. However, through an inductive process, it makes a generalisation which underlines that observations do not only apply to false identity documents but to any kind of trace as soon as a profile is extracted. A more transversal definition and understanding of the concept and function of forensic intelligence therefore derives from the doctoral work.