Graphical probabilistic analysis of the combination of items of evidence

Unlike the evaluation of single items of scientific evidence, the formal study and analysis of the jointevaluation of several distinct items of forensic evidence has to date received some punctual, ratherthan systematic, attention. Questions about the (i) relationships among a set of (usually unobservable)propositions and a set of (observable) items of scientific evidence, (ii) the joint probative valueof a collection of distinct items of evidence as well as (iii) the contribution of each individual itemwithin a given group of pieces of evidence still represent fundamental areas of research. To somedegree, this is remarkable since both, forensic science theory and practice, yet many daily inferencetasks, require the consideration of multiple items if not masses of evidence. A recurrent and particularcomplication that arises in such settings is that the application of probability theory, i.e. the referencemethod for reasoning under uncertainty, becomes increasingly demanding. The present paper takesthis as a starting point and discusses graphical probability models, i.e. Bayesian networks, as frameworkwithin which the joint evaluation of scientific evidence can be approached in some viable way.Based on a review of existing main contributions in this area, the article here aims at presentinginstances of real case studies from the author's institution in order to point out the usefulness andcapacities of Bayesian networks for the probabilistic assessment of the probative value of multipleand interrelated items of evidence. A main emphasis is placed on underlying general patterns of inference,their representation as well as their graphical probabilistic analysis. Attention is also drawnto inferential interactions, such as redundancy, synergy and directional change. These distinguish thejoint evaluation of evidence from assessments of isolated items of evidence. Together, these topicspresent aspects of interest to both, domain experts and recipients of expert information, because theyhave bearing on how multiple items of evidence are meaningfully and appropriately set into context.

In vivo brain macromolecule signals in healthy and glioblastoma mouse models: (1) H magnetic resonance spectroscopy, post-processing and metabolite quantification at 14.1 T.

In (1) H magnetic resonance spectroscopy, macromolecule signals underlay metabolite signals, and knowing their contribution is necessary for reliable metabolite quantification. When macromolecule signals are measured using an inversion-recovery pulse sequence, special care needs to be taken to correctly remove residual metabolite signals to obtain a pure macromolecule spectrum. Furthermore, since a single spectrum is commonly used for quantification in multiple experiments, the impact of potential macromolecule signal variability, because of regional differences or pathologies, on metabolite quantification has to be assessed. In this study, we introduced a novel method to post-process measured macromolecule signals that offers a flexible and robust way of removing residual metabolite signals. This method was applied to investigate regional differences in the mouse brain macromolecule signals that may affect metabolite quantification when not taken into account. However, since no significant differences in metabolite quantification were detected, it was concluded that a single macromolecule spectrum can be generally used for the quantification of healthy mouse brain spectra. Alternatively, the study of a mouse model of human glioma showed several alterations of the macromolecule spectrum, including, but not limited to, increased mobile lipid signals, which had to be taken into account to avoid significant metabolite quantification errors.

Processing of metacaspase into a cytoplasmic catalytic domain mediating cell death in Leishmania major.

Metacaspases are cysteine peptidases that could play a role similar to caspases in the cell death programme of plants, fungi and protozoa. The human protozoan parasite Leishmania major expresses a single metacaspase (LmjMCA) harbouring a central domain with the catalytic dyad histidine and cysteine as found in caspases. In this study, we investigated the processing sites important for the maturation of LmjMCA catalytic domain, the cellular localization of LmjMCA polypeptides, and the functional role of the catalytic domain in the cell death pathway of Leishmania parasites. Although LmjMCA polypeptide precursor form harbours a functional mitochondrial localization signal (MLS), we determined that LmjMCA polypeptides are mainly localized in the cytoplasm. In stress conditions, LmjMCA precursor forms were extensively processed into soluble forms containing the catalytic domain. This domain was sufficient to enhance sensitivity of parasites to hydrogen peroxide by impairing the mitochondrion. These data provide experimental evidences of the importance of LmjMCA processing into an active catalytic domain and of its role in disrupting mitochondria, which could be relevant in the design of new drugs to fight leishmaniasis and likely other protozoan parasitic diseases.

Can the impact of bed closure in intensive care units be reliably monitored?

OBJECTIVE: To assess the properties of various indicators aimed at monitoring the impact on the activity and patient outcome of a bed closure in a surgical intensive care unit (ICU). DESIGN: Comparison before and after the intervention. SETTING: A surgical ICU at a university hospital. PATIENTS: All patients admitted to the unit over two periods of 10 months. INTERVENTION: Closure of one bed out of 17. MEASUREMENTS AND RESULTS: Activity and outcome indicators in the ICU and the structures upstream from it (emergency department, operative theater, recovery room) and downstream from it (intermediate care units). After the bed closure, the monthly medians of admitted patients and ICU hospital days increased from 107 (interquartile range 94-112) to 113 (106-121, P=0.07) and from 360 (325-443) to 395 (345-436, P=0.48), respectively, along with the linear trend observed in our institution. All indicators of workload, patient severity, and outcome remained stable except for SAPS II score, emergency admissions, and ICU readmissions, which increased not only transiently but also on a mid-term basis (10 months), indicating that the process of patient care delivery was no longer predictable. CONCLUSIONS: Health care systems, including ICUs, are extraordinary flexible, and can adapt to multiple external constraints without altering commonly used activity and outcome indicators. It is therefore necessary to set up multiple indicators to be able to reliably monitor the impact of external interventions and intervene rapidly when the system is no longer under control.

Towards a diffusion image processing validation and accuracy prediction framework

Validation is the main bottleneck preventing theadoption of many medical image processing algorithms inthe clinical practice. In the classical approach,a-posteriori analysis is performed based on someobjective metrics. In this work, a different approachbased on Petri Nets (PN) is proposed. The basic ideaconsists in predicting the accuracy that will result froma given processing based on the characterization of thesources of inaccuracy of the system. Here we propose aproof of concept in the scenario of a diffusion imaginganalysis pipeline. A PN is built after the detection ofthe possible sources of inaccuracy. By integrating thefirst qualitative insights based on the PN withquantitative measures, it is possible to optimize the PNitself, to predict the inaccuracy of the system in adifferent setting. Results show that the proposed modelprovides a good prediction performance and suggests theoptimal processing approach.

Molecular characterization of the processing of arenavirus envelope glycoprotein precursors by subtilisin kexin isozyme-1/site-1 protease.

A crucial step in the life cycle of arenaviruses is the biosynthesis of the mature fusion-active viral envelope glycoprotein (GP) that is essential for virus-host cell attachment and entry. The maturation of the arenavirus GP precursor (GPC) critically depends on proteolytic processing by the cellular proprotein convertase (PC) subtilisin kexin isozyme-1 (SKI-1)/site-1 protease (S1P). Here we undertook a molecular characterization of the SKI-1/S1P processing of the GPCs of the prototypic arenavirus lymphocytic choriomeningitis virus (LCMV) and the pathogenic Lassa virus (LASV). Previous studies showed that the GPC of LASV undergoes processing in the endoplasmic reticulum (ER)/cis-Golgi compartment, whereas the LCMV GPC is cleaved in a late Golgi compartment. Herein we confirm these findings and provide evidence that the SKI-1/S1P recognition site RRLL, present in the SKI-1/S1P prodomain and LASV GPC, but not in the LCMV GPC, is crucial for the processing of the LASV GPC in the ER/cis-Golgi compartment. Our structure-function analysis revealed that the cleavage of arenavirus GPCs, but not cellular substrates, critically depends on the autoprocessing of SKI-1/S1P, suggesting differences in the processing of cellular and viral substrates. Deletion mutagenesis showed that the transmembrane and intracellular domains of SKI-1/S1P are dispensable for arenavirus GPC processing. The expression of a soluble form of the protease in SKI-I/S1P-deficient cells resulted in the efficient processing of arenavirus GPCs and rescued productive virus infection. However, exogenous soluble SKI-1/S1P was unable to process LCMV and LASV GPCs displayed at the surface of SKI-I/S1P-deficient cells, indicating that GPC processing occurs in an intracellular compartment. In sum, our study reveals important differences in the SKI-1/S1P processing of viral and cellular substrates.

Decision-theoretic reflections on processing a fingermark

A recent publication in this journal [Neumann et al., Forensic Sci. Int. 212 (2011) 32-46] presented the results of a field study that revealed the data provided by the fingermarks not processed in a forensic science laboratory. In their study, the authors were interested in the usefulness of this additional data in order to determine whether such fingermarks would have been worth submitting to the fingermark processing workflow. Taking these ideas as a starting point, this communication here places the fingermark in its context of a case brought before a court, and examines the question of processing or not processing a fingermark from a decision-theoretic point of view. The decision-theoretic framework presented provides an answer to this question in the form of a quantified expression of the expected value of information (EVOI) associated with the processed fingermark, which can then be compared with the cost of processing the mark.

Red blood cell-derived microparticles isolated from blood units initiate and propagate thrombin generation.

BACKGROUND: Red blood cell-derived microparticles (RMPs) are small phospholipid vesicles shed from RBCs in blood units, where they accumulate during storage. Because microparticles are bioactive, it could be suggested that RMPs are mediators of posttransfusion complications or, on the contrary, constitute a potential hemostatic agent. STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study was performed to establish the impact on coagulation of RMPs isolated from blood units. Using calibrated automated thrombography, we investigated whether RMPs affect thrombin generation (TG) in plasma. RESULTS: We found that RMPs were not only able to increase TG in plasma in the presence of a low exogenous tissue factor (TF) concentration, but also to initiate TG in plasma in absence of exogenous TF. TG induced by RMPs in the absence of exogenous TF was neither affected by the presence of blocking anti-TF nor by the absence of Factor (F)VII. It was significantly reduced in plasma deficient in FVIII or F IX and abolished in FII-, FV-, FX-, or FXI-deficient plasma. TG was also totally abolished when anti-XI 01A6 was added in the sample. Finally, neither Western blotting, flow cytometry, nor immunogold labeling allowed the detection of traces of TF antigen. In addition, RMPs did not comprise polyphosphate, an important modulator of coagulation. CONCLUSIONS: Taken together, our data show that RMPs have FXI-dependent procoagulant properties and are able to initiate and propagate TG. The anionic surface of RMPs might be the site of FXI-mediated TG amplification and intrinsic tenase and prothrombinase complex assembly.

Early auditory processing

ABSTRACT (English)An accurate processing of the order between sensory events at the millisecond time scale is crucial for both sensori-motor and cognitive functions. Temporal order judgment (TOJ) tasks, is the ability of discriminating the order of presentation of several stimuli presented in a rapid succession. The aim of the present thesis is to further investigate the spatio-temporal brain mechanisms supporting TOJ. In three studies we focus on the dependency of TOJ accuracy on the brain states preceding the presentation of TOJ stimuli, the neural correlates of accurate vs. inaccurate TOJ and whether and how TOJ performance can be improved with training.In "Pre-stimulus beta oscillations within left posterior sylvian regions impact auditory temporal order judgment accuracy" (Bernasconi et al., 2011), we investigated if the brain activity immediately preceding the presentation of the stimuli modulates TOJ performance. By contrasting the electrophysiological activity before the stimulus presentation as a function of TOJ accuracy we observed a stronger pre-stimulus beta (20Hz) oscillatory activity within the left posterior sylvian region (PSR) before accurate than inaccurate TOJ trials.In "Interhemispheric coupling between the posterior sylvian regions impacts successful auditory temporal order judgment" (Bernasconi et al., 2010a), and "Plastic brain mechanisms for attaining auditory temporal order judgment proficiency" (Bernasconi et al., 2010b), we investigated the spatio-temporal brain dynamics underlying auditory TOJ. In both studies we observed a topographic modulation as a function of TOJ performance at ~40ms after the onset of the first sound, indicating the engagement of distinct configurations of intracranial generators. Source estimations in the first study revealed a bilateral PSR activity for both accurate and inaccurate TOJ trials. Moreover, activity within left, but not right, PSR correlated with TOJ performance. Source estimations in the second study revealed a training-induced left lateralization of the initial bilateral (i.e. PSR) brain response. Moreover, the activity within the left PSR region correlated with TOJ performance.Based on these results, we suggest that a "temporal stamp" is established within left PSR on the first sound within the pair at early stages (i.e. ~40ms) of cortical processes, but is critically modulated by inputs from right PSR (Bernasconi et al., 2010a; b). The "temporal stamp" on the first sound may be established via a sensory gating or prior entry mechanism.Behavioral and brain responses to identical stimuli can vary due to attention modulation, vary with experimental and task parameters or "internal noise". In a fourth experiment (Bernasconi et al., 2011b) we investigated where and when "neural noise" manifest during the stimulus processing. Contrasting the AEPs of identical sound perceived as High vs. Low pitch, a topographic modulation occurred at ca. 100ms after the onset of the sound. Source estimation revealed activity within regions compatible with pitch discrimination. Thus, we provided neurophysiological evidence for the variation in perception induced by "neural noise".ABSTRACT (French)Un traitement précis de l'ordre des événements sensoriels sur une échelle de temps de milliseconde est crucial pour les fonctions sensori-motrices et cognitives. Les tâches de jugement d'ordre temporel (JOT), consistant à présenter plusieurs stimuli en succession rapide, sont traditionnellement employées pour étudier les mécanismes neuronaux soutenant le traitement d'informations sensorielles qui varient rapidement. Le but de cette thèse est d'étudier le mécanisme cérébral soutenant JOT. Dans les trois études présentées nous nous sommes concentrés sur les états du cerveau précédant la présentation des stimuli de JOT, les bases neurales pour un JOT correct vs. incorrect et sur la possibilité et les moyens d'améliorer l'exécution du JOT grâce à un entraînement.Dans "Pre-stimulus beta oscillations within left posterior sylvian regions impact auditory temporal order judgment accuracy" (Bernasconi et al., 2011),, nous nous sommes intéressé à savoir si l'activité oscillatoire du cerveau au pré-stimulus modulait la performance du JOT. Nous avons contrasté l'activité électrophysiologique en fonction de la performance TOJ, mesurant une activité oscillatoire beta au pré-stimulus plus fort dans la région sylvian postérieure gauche (PSR) liée à un JOT correct.Dans "Interhemispheric coupling between the posterior sylvian regions impacts successful auditory temporal order judgment" (Bernasconi et al., 2010a), et "Plastic brain mechanisms for attaining auditory temporal order judgment proficiency" (Bernasconi et al., 2010b), nous avons étudié la dynamique spatio-temporelle dans le cerveau impliqué dans le traitement du JOT auditif. Dans ses deux études, nous avons observé une modulation topographique à ~40ms après le début du premier son, en fonction de la performance JOT, indiquant l'engagement des configurations de générateurs intra- crâniens distincts. La localisation de source dans la première étude indique une activité bilatérale de PSR pour des JOT corrects vs. incorrects. Par ailleurs, l'activité dans PSR gauche, mais pas dans le droit, est corrélée avec la performance du JOT. La localisation de source dans la deuxième étude indiquait une latéralisation gauche induite par l'entraînement d'une réponse initialement bilatérale du cerveau. D'ailleurs, l'activité dans la région PSR gauche corrèlait avec la performance de TOJ.Basé sur ces résultats, nous proposons qu'un « timbre-temporel » soit établi très tôt (c.-à-d. à ~40ms) sur le premier son par le PSR gauche, mais module par l'activité du PSR droite (Bernasconi et al., 2010a ; b). « Le timbre- temporel » sur le premier son peut être établi par le mécanisme neuronal de type « sensory gating » ou « prior entry ».Les réponses comportementales et du cerveau aux stimuli identiques peut varier du à des modulations d'attention ou à des variations dans les paramètres des tâches ou au bruit interne du cerveau. Dans une quatrième expérience (Bernasconi et al. 2011B), nous avons étudié où et quand le »bruit neuronal« se manifeste pendant le traitement des stimuli. En contrastant les AEPs de sons identiques perçus comme aigus vs. grave, nous avons mesuré une modulation topographique à env. 100ms après l'apparition du son. L'estimation de source a révélé une activité dans les régions compatibles avec la discrimination de fréquences. Ainsi, nous avons fourni des preuves neurophysiologiques de la variation de la perception induite par le «bruit neuronal».

Molecular epidemiology of Pseudomonas aeruginosa in intensive care units over a 10-year period (1998-2007).

Pseudomonas aeruginosa is one of the leading nosocomial pathogens in intensive care units (ICUs). The source of this microorganism can be either endogenous or exogenous. The proportion of cases as a result of transmission is still debated, and its elucidation is important for implementing appropriate control measures. To understand the relative importance of exogenous vs. endogenous sources of P. aeruginosa, molecular typing was performed on all available P. aeruginosa isolated from ICU clinical and environmental specimens in 1998, 2000, 2003, 2004 and 2007. Patient samples were classified according to their P. aeruginosa genotypes into three categories: (A) identical to isolate from faucet; (B) identical to at least one other patient sample and not found in faucet; and (C) unique genotype. Cases in categories A and B were considered as possibly exogenous, and cases in category C as possibly endogenous. A mean of 34 cases per 1000 admissions per year were found to be colonized or infected by P. aeruginosa. Higher levels of faucet contamination were correlated with a higher number of cases in category A. The number of cases in category B varied from 1.9 to 20 cases per 1000 admissions. This number exceeded 10/1000 admissions on three occasions and was correlated with an outbreak on one occasion. The number of cases considered as endogenous (category C) was stable and independent of the number of cases in categories A and B. The present study shows that repeated molecular typing can help identify variations in the epidemiology of P. aeruginosa in ICU patients and guide infection control measures.

Normative Topographic ERP Analyses of Speed of Speech Processing and Grammar Before and After Grammatical Treatment.

Typically developing (TD) preschoolers and age-matched preschoolers with specific language impairment (SLI) received event-related potentials (ERPs) to four monosyllabic speech sounds prior to treatment and, in the SLI group, after 6 months of grammatical treatment. Before treatment, the TD group processed speech sounds faster than the SLI group. The SLI group increased the speed of their speech processing after treatment. Posttreatment speed of speech processing predicted later impairment in comprehending phrase elaboration in the SLI group. During the treatment phase, change in speed of speech processing predicted growth rate of grammar in the SLI group.

Occupational exposure to diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) in polyvinyl chloride processing operations

PURPOSE: Diisononyl phthalate (DiNP) is primarily used as a plasticizer in polyvinyl chloride (PVC) materials. While information is available on general population exposure to DiNP, occupational exposure data are lacking. We present DiNP metabolite urinary concentrations in PVC processing workers, estimate DiNP daily intake for these workers, and compare worker estimates to other populations. METHODS: We assessed DiNP exposure in participants from two companies that manufactured PVC materials, a PVC film manufacturer (n = 25) and a PVC custom compounder (n = 12). A mid-shift and end-shift urine sample was collected from each participant and analyzed for the DiNP metabolite mono(carboxy-isooctyl) phthalate (MCiOP). Mixed models were used to assess the effect on MCiOP concentrations of a worker being assigned to (1) a task using DiNP and (2) a shift where DiNP was used. A simple pharmacokinetic model was used to estimate DiNP daily intake from the MCiOP concentrations. RESULTS: Creatinine-adjusted MCiOP urinary concentrations ranged from 0.42-80 μg/g in PVC film and from 1.11-13.4 μg/g in PVC compounding. PVC film participants who worked on a task using DiNP (n = 7) had the highest MCiOP geometric mean (GM) end-shift concentration (25.2 μg/g), followed by participants who worked on a shift where DiNP was used (n = 11) (17.7 μg/g) as compared to participants with no task (2.92 μg/g) or shift (2.08 μg/g) exposure to DiNP. The GM end-shift MCiOP concentration in PVC compounding participants (4.80 μg/g) was comparable to PVC film participants with no task or shift exposure to DiNP. Because no PVC compounding participants were assigned to tasks using DINP on the day sampled, DiNP exposure in this company may be underestimated. The highest DiNP intake estimate was 26 μg/kg/day. CONCLUSION: Occupational exposure to DiNP associated with PVC film manufacturing tasks were substantially higher (sixfold to tenfold) than adult general population exposures; however, all daily intake estimates were less than 25% of current United States or European acceptable or tolerable daily intake estimates. Further characterization of DiNP occupational exposures in other industries is recommended.

Temporal dynamics of auditory what and where processing in humans

Recent evidence suggests the human auditory system is organized,like the visual system, into a ventral 'what' pathway, devoted toidentifying objects and a dorsal 'where' pathway devoted to thelocalization of objects in space w1x. Several brain regions have beenidentified in these two different pathways, but until now little isknown about the temporal dynamics of these regions. We investigatedthis issue using 128-channel auditory evoked potentials(AEPs).Stimuli were stationary sounds created by varying interaural timedifferences and environmental real recorded sounds. Stimuli ofeach condition (localization, recognition) were presented throughearphones in a blocked design, while subjects determined theirposition or meaning, respectively.AEPs were analyzed in terms of their topographical scalp potentialdistributions (segmentation maps) and underlying neuronalgenerators (source estimation) w2x.Fourteen scalp potential distributions (maps) best explained theentire data set.Ten maps were nonspecific (associated with auditory stimulationin general), two were specific for sound localization and two werespecific for sound recognition (P-values ranging from 0.02 to0.045).Condition-specific maps appeared at two distinct time periods:;200 ms and ;375-550 ms post-stimulus.The brain sources associated with the maps specific for soundlocalization were mainly situated in the inferior frontal cortices,confirming previous findings w3x. The sources associated withsound recognition were predominantly located in the temporal cortices,with a weaker activation in the frontal cortex.The data show that sound localization and sound recognitionengage different brain networks that are apparent at two distincttime periods.References1. Maeder et al. Neuroimage 2001.2. Michel et al. Brain Research Review 2001.3. Ducommun et al. Neuroimage 2002.

Altered processing of contextual information during fear extinction in PTSD: an fMRI study.

Medial prefrontal cortical areas have been hypothesized to underlie altered contextual processing in posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). We investigated brain signaling of contextual information in this disorder. Eighteen PTSD subjects and 16 healthy trauma-exposed subjects underwent a two-day fear conditioning and extinction paradigm. On day 1, within visual context A, a conditioned stimulus (CS) was followed 60% of the time by an electric shock (conditioning). The conditioned response was then extinguished (extinction learning) in context B. On day 2, recall of the extinction memory was tested in context B. Skin conductance response (SCR) and functional magnetic resonance imaging (fMRI) data were collected during context presentations. There were no SCR group differences in any context presentation. Concerning fMRI data, during late conditioning, when context A signaled danger, PTSD subjects showed dorsal anterior cingulate cortical (dACC) hyperactivation. During early extinction, when context B had not yet fully acquired signal value for safety, PTSD subjects still showed dACC hyperactivation. During late extinction, when context B had come to signal safety, they showed ventromedial prefrontal cortex (vmPFC) hypoactivation. During early extinction recall, when context B signaled safety, they showed both vmPFC hypoactivation and dACC hyperactivation. These findings suggest that PTSD subjects show alterations in the processing of contextual information related to danger and safety. This impairment is manifest even prior to a physiologically-measured, cue-elicited fear response, and characterized by hypoactivation in vmPFC and hyperactivation in dACC.