Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

Measurement of β-tryptase in postmortem serum, pericardial fluid, urine and vitreous humor in the forensic setting.

In the realm of forensic pathology, β-tryptase measurement for diagnostic purposes is performed in postmortem serum obtained from femoral blood. This may be partially or completely unavailable in some specific cases, such as infant autopsies and severely damaged bodies. The aim of this study was to investigate the usefulness of determining β-tryptase levels for diagnostic purposes in alternative biological samples. Urine, vitreous humor and pericardial fluid were selected and measured in 94 subjects including: fatal anaphylaxis following contrast material administration (6 cases), hypothermia (10 cases), diabetic ketoacidosis (10 cases), gunshot suicide (10 cases), heroin injection-related deaths (18 cases), trauma (10 cases), sudden death with minimal coronary atherosclerosis (10 cases), severe coronary atherosclerosis without myocardial infarction (10 cases) and severe coronary atherosclerosis with myocardial infarction (10 cases). Postmortem serum and pericardial fluid β-tryptase levels higher than the clinical reference value (11.4ng/ml) were systematically identified in fatal anaphylaxis following contrast material administration and 6 cases unrelated to anaphylaxis. β-tryptase concentrations in urine and vitreous humor were lower than the clinical reference value in all cases included in this study. Determination of β-tryptase in pericardial fluid appears to be a possible alternative to postmortem serum in the early postmortem period when femoral blood cannot be collected during autopsy and biochemical investigations are required to objectify increased β-tryptase levels.

Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Situating forensic traces in time

Situating events and traces in time is an essential problem in investigations. To date, among the typical ques- 21¦tions issued in forensic science, time has generally been unexplored. The reason for this can be traced to the 22¦complexity of the overall problem, addressed by several scientists in very limited projects usually stimulated 23¦by a specific case. Considering that such issues are recurrent and transcending the treatment of each trace 24¦separately, the formalisation of a framework to address dating issues in criminal investigation is undeniably 25¦needed. Through an iterative process consisting of extracting recurrent aspects discovered from the study of 26¦problems encountered by practitioners and reported in the literature, common mechanisms were extracted 27¦and provide understanding of underlying factors encountered in forensic practise. Three complementary ap- 28¦proaches are thus highlighted and described to formalise a preliminary framework that can be applied for the 29¦dating of traces, objects, persons and indirectly events.

Fingermark initial composition and aging using Fourier transform infrared microscopy (μ-FTIR)

This study investigated fingermark residues using Fourier transform infrared microscopy (μ- FTIR) in order to obtain fundamental information about the marks' initial composition and aging kinetics. This knowledge would be an asset for fundamental research on fingermarks, such as for dating purposes. Attenuated Total Reflection (ATR) and single-point reflection modes were tested on fresh fingermarks. ATR proved to be better suited and this mode was subsequently selected for further aging studies. Eccrine and sebaceous material was found in fresh and aged fingermarks and the spectral regions 1000-1850 cm-1 and 2700-3600 cm-1 were identified as the most informative. The impact of substrates (aluminium and glass slides) and storage conditions (storage in the light and in the dark) on fingermark aging was also studied. Chemometric analyses showed that fingermarks could be grouped according to their age regardless of the substrate when they were stored in an open box kept in an air-conditioned laboratory at around 20°C next to a window. On the contrary, when fingermarks were stored in the dark, only specimens deposited on the same substrate could be grouped by age. Thus, the substrate appeared to influence aging of fingermarks in the dark. Furthermore, PLS regression analyses were conducted in order to study the possibility of modelling fingermark aging for potential fingermark dating applications. The resulting models showed an overall precision of ±3 days and clearly demonstrated their capability to differentiate older fingermarks (20 and 34-days old) from newer ones (1, 3, 7 and 9-days old) regardless of the substrate and lighting conditions. These results are promising from a fingermark dating perspective. Further research is required to fully validate such models and assess their robustness and limitations in uncontrolled casework conditions.

Forensic aspects of the weathering and ageing of spray paints

This paper presents a preliminary study on the degradation of spray paint samples, illustrated by Optical, FTIR and Raman measurements. As opposed to automotive paints which are specifically designed for improved outdoor exposure and protected using hindered amine light absorbers (HALS) and ultra-violet absorbers (UVA), the spray paints on their side are much simpler in composition and very likely to suffer more from joint effects of solar radiation, temperature and humidity. Six different spray paint were exposed to outdoor UV-radiation for a total period of three months and both FTIR and Raman measurements were taken systematically during this time. These results were later compared to an artificial degradation using a climate chamber. For infrared spectroscopy, degradation curves were plotted using the photo-oxidation index (POI), and could be successfully approximated with a logarithmic fitting (R2 > 0.8). The degradation can appear after the first few days of exposure and be important until 2 months, where it stabilizes and follow a more linear trend afterwards. One advantage is that the degradation products appeared almost exclusively at the far end (∼3000 cm−1) of mid-infrared spectra, and that the fingerprint region of the spectra remained stable over the studied period of time. Raman results suggest that the pigments on the other side, are much more stable and have not shown any sign of degradation over the time of this study. Considering the forensic implications of this environmental degradation, care should be taken when comparing samples if weathering is an option (e.g. an exposed graffiti compared to the paint from a fresh spray paint can). Degradation issues should be kept in mind as they may induce significant differences between paint samples of common origin.

(210)Po poisoning as possible cause of death: forensic investigations and toxicological analysis of the remains of Yasser Arafat.

The late president of the Palestinian Authority, Yasser Arafat, died in November 2004 in Percy Hospital, one month after having experienced a sudden onset of symptoms that included severe nausea, vomiting, diarrhoea and abdominal pain and which were followed by multiple organ failure. In spite of numerous investigations performed in France, the pathophysiological mechanisms at the origin of the symptoms could not be identified. In 2011, we found abnormal levels of polonium-210 ((210)Po) in some of Arafat's belongings that were worn during his final hospital stay and which were stained with biological fluids. This finding led to the exhumation of Arafat's remains in 2012. Significantly higher (up to 20 times) activities of (210)Po and lead-210 ((210)Pb) were found in the ribs, iliac crest and sternum specimens compared to reference samples from the literature (p-value <1%). In all specimens from the tomb, (210)Po activity was supported by a similar activity of (210)Pb. Biokinetic calculations demonstrated that a (210)Pb impurity, as identified in a commercial source of 3MBq of (210)Po, may be responsible for the activities measured in Arafat's belongings and remains 8 years after his death. The absence of myelosuppression and hair loss in Mr Arafat's case compared to Mr Litvinenko's, the only known case of malicious poisoning with (210)Po, could be explained by differences in the time delivery-scheme of intake. In conclusion, statistical Bayesian analysis combining all the evidence gathered in our forensic expert report moderately supports the proposition that Mr Arafat was poisoned by (210)Po.

Digital evidence, 'absence' of data and ambiguous patterns of reasoning

In this paper we discuss the use of digital data by the Swiss Federal Criminal Court in a recent case of attempted homicide. We use this case to examine drawbacks for the defense when the presentation of scientific evidence is partial, especially when the only perspective mentioned is that of the prosecution. We tackle this discussion at two distinct levels. First, we pursue an essentially non-technical presentation of the topic by drawing parallels between the court's summing up of the case and flawed patterns of reasoning commonly seen in other forensic disciplines, such as DNA and particle traces (e.g., gunshot residues). Then, we propose a formal analysis of the case, using elements of probability and graphical probability models, to justify our main claim that the partial presentation of digital evidence poses a risk to the administration of justice in that it keeps vital information from the defense. We will argue that such practice constitutes a violation of general principles of forensic interpretation as established by forensic science literature and current recommendations by forensic science interest groups (e.g., the European Network of Forensic Science Institutes). Finally, we posit that argument construction and analysis using formal methods can help replace digital evidence appropriately into context and thus support a sound evaluation of the evidence.

The cutting of cocaine and heroin: a critical review

The illicit drug cutting represents a complex problem that requires the sharing of knowledge from addiction studies, toxicology, criminology and criminalistics. Therefore, cutting is not well known by the forensic community. Thus, this review aims at deciphering the different aspects of cutting, by gathering information mainly from criminology and criminalistics. It tackles essentially specificities of cocaine and heroin cutting. The article presents the detected cutting agents (adulterants and diluents), their evolution in time and space and the analytical methodology implemented by forensic laboratories. Furthermore, it discusses when, in the history of the illicit drug, cutting may take place. Moreover, researches studying how much cutting occurs in the country of destination are analysed. Lastly, the reasons for cutting are addressed. According to the literature, adulterants are added during production of the illicit drug or at a relatively high level of its distribution chain (e.g. before the product arrives in the country of destination or just after its importation in the latter). Their addition seems hardly justified by the only desire to increase profits or to harm consumers' health. Instead, adulteration would be performed to enhance or to mimic the illicit drug effects or to facilitate administration of the drug. Nowadays, caffeine, diltiazem, hydroxyzine, levamisole, lidocaïne and phenacetin are frequently detected in cocaine specimens, while paracetamol and caffeine are almost exclusively identified in heroin specimens. This may reveal differences in the respective structures of production and/or distribution of cocaine and heroin. As the relevant information about cutting is spread across different scientific fields, a close collaboration should be set up to collect essential and unified data to improve knowledge and provide information for monitoring, control and harm reduction purposes. More research, on several areas of investigation, should be carried out to gather relevant information.

Chemical profiling: a tool to decipher the structure and organisation of illicit drugs markets: an 8-year study in Western Switzerland

Illicit drug analyses usually focus on the identification and quantitation of questioned material to support the judicial process. In parallel, more and more laboratories develop physical and chemical profiling methods in a forensic intelligence perspective. The analysis of large databases resulting from this approach enables not only to draw tactical and operational intelligence, but may also contribute to the strategic overview of drugs markets. In Western Switzerland, the chemical analysis of illicit drug seizures is centralised in a laboratory hosted by the University of Lausanne. For over 8 years, this laboratory has analysed 5875 cocaine and 2728 heroin specimens, coming from respectively 1138 and 614 seizures operated by police and border guards or customs. Chemical (major and minor alkaloids, purity, cutting agents, chemical class), physical (packaging and appearance) as well as circumstantial (criminal case number, mass of drug seized, date and place of seizure) information are collated in a dedicated database for each specimen. The study capitalises on this extended database and defines several indicators to characterise the structure of drugs markets, to follow-up on their evolution and to compare cocaine and heroin markets. Relational, spatial, temporal and quantitative analyses of data reveal the emergence and importance of distribution networks. They enable to evaluate the cross-jurisdictional character of drug trafficking and the observation time of drug batches, as well as the quantity of drugs entering the market every year. Results highlight the stable nature of drugs markets over the years despite the very dynamic flows of distribution and consumption. This research work illustrates how the systematic analysis of forensic data may elicit knowledge on criminal activities at a strategic level. In combination with information from other sources, such knowledge can help to devise intelligence-based preventive and repressive measures and to discuss the impact of countermeasures.

The Discrimination of Colored Acrylic, Cotton, and Wool Textile Fibers Using Micro-Raman Spectroscopy. Part 1 : In Situ Detection and Characterization of Dyes

Raman spectroscopy has been applied to characterize fiber dyes and determine the discriminating ability of the method. Black, blue, and red acrylic, cotton, and wool samples were analyzed. Four excitation sources were used to obtain complementary responses in the case of fluorescent samples. Fibers that did not provide informative spectra using a given laser were usually detected using another wavelength. For any colored acrylic, the 633-nm laser did not provide Raman information. The 514-nm laser provided the highest discrimination for blue and black cotton, but half of the blue cottons produced noninformative spectra. The 830-nm laser exhibited the highest discrimination for red cotton. Both visible lasers provided the highest discrimination for black and blue wool, and NIR lasers produced remarkable separation for red and black wool. This study shows that the discriminating ability of Raman spectroscopy depends on the fiber type, color, and the laser wavelength.

Transforming scientific information with everyday thinking: A social representations perspective

Cette thèse examine la circulation et l'intégration des informations scientifiques dans la pensée quotidienne d'après la théorie des représentations sociales (TRS). En tant qu'alternative aux approches traditionnelles de la communication de la science, les transformations survenant entre le discours scientifique et le discours de sens commun sont considérées comme adaptatives. Deux études sur la circulation des informations dans les media (études 1 et 2) montrent des variations dans les thèmes de discours exposés aux profanes, et parmi les discours de ceux-ci, en fonction de différentes sources. Ensuite, le processus d'ancrage dans le positionnement préalable envers la science est étudié, pour l'explication qu'il fournit de la réception et de la transmission d'informations scientifiques dans le sens commun. Les effets d'ancrage dans les attitudes et croyances préexistants sont reportés dans différents contextes de circulation des informations scientifiques (études 3 à 7), incluant des études de type corrélationnel, experimental et de terrain. Globalement, cette thèse procure des arguments en faveur de la pertinence de la TRS pour la recherche sur la communication de la science, et suggère des développements théoriques et méthodologiques pour ces deux domaines de recherche. Drawing on the social representations theory (SRT), this thesis examines the circulation and integration of scientific information into everyday thinking. As an alternative to the traditional approaches of science communication, it considers transformations between scientific and common-sense discourses as adaptive. Two studies, focused on the spreading of information into the media (Studies 1 and 2), show variations in the themes of discourses introduced to laypersons and in the themes among laypersons' discourses, according to different sources. Anchoring in prior positioning toward science is then studied for the explanation it provides on the reception and transmission of scientific information into common sense. Anchoring effects in prior attitudes and beliefs are reported in different contexts of circulation of scientific information (Studies 3 to 7) by using results from correlational, field, and experimental studies. Overall, this thesis provides arguments for the relevance of SRT in science communication research and suggests theoretical and methodological developments for both domains of research.

Results of a collaborative study of the EDNAP group regarding mitochondrial DNA heteroplasmy and segregation in hair shafts.

A collaborative exercise was carried out by the European DNA Profiling Group (EDNAP) in order to evaluate the distribution of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) heteroplasmy amongst the hairs of an individual who displays point heteroplasmy in blood and buccal cells. A second aim of the exercise was to study reproducibility of mtDNA sequencing of hairs between laboratories using differing chemistries, further to the first mtDNA reproducibility study carried out by the EDNAP group. Laboratories were asked to type 2 sections from each of 10 hairs, such that each hair was typed by at least two laboratories. Ten laboratories participated in the study, and a total of 55 hairs were typed. The results showed that the C/T point heteroplasmy observed in blood and buccal cells at position 16234 segregated differentially between hairs, such that some hairs showed only C, others only T and the remainder, C/T heteroplasmy at varying ratios. Additionally, differential segregation of heteroplasmic variants was confirmed in independent extracts at positions 16093 and the poly(C) tract at 302-309, whilst a complete A-G transition was confirmed at position 16129 in one hair. Heteroplasmy was observed at position 16195 on both strands of a single extract from one hair segment, but was not observed in the extracts from any other segment of the same hair. Similarly, heteroplasmy at position 16304 was observed on both strands of a single extract from one hair. Additional variants at positions 73, 249 and the HVII poly(C) region were reported by one laboratory; as these were not confirmed in independent extracts, the possibility of contamination cannot be excluded. Additionally, the electrophoresis and detection equipment used by this laboratory was different to those of the other laboratories, and the discrepancies at position 249 and the HVII poly(C) region appear to be due to reading errors that may be associated with this technology. The results, and their implications for forensic mtDNA typing, are discussed in the light of the biology of hair formation.

Use of DNA profiles for investigation using a simulated national DNA database: Part I. Partial SGM Plus profiles.

In traditional criminal investigation, uncertainties are often dealt with using a combination of common sense, practical considerations and experience, but rarely with tailored statistical models. For example, in some countries, in order to search for a given profile in the national DNA database, it must have allelic information for six or more of the ten SGM Plus loci for a simple trace. If the profile does not have this amount of information then it cannot be searched in the national DNA database (NDNAD). This requirement (of a result at six or more loci) is not based on a statistical approach, but rather on the feeling that six or more would be sufficient. A statistical approach, however, could be more rigorous and objective and would take into consideration factors such as the probability of adventitious matches relative to the actual database size and/or investigator's requirements in a sensible way. Therefore, this research was undertaken to establish scientific foundations pertaining to the use of partial SGM Plus loci profiles (or similar) for investigation.

Fitness to drive and cannabis: Validation of two blood THCCOOH thresholds to distinguish occasional users from heavy smokers.

Many studies based on either an experimental or an epidemiological approach, have shown that the ability to drive is impaired when the driver is under the influence of cannabis. Baseline performances of heavy users remain impaired even after several weeks of abstinence. Symptoms of cannabis abuse and dependence are generally considered incompatible with safe driving. Recently, it has been shown that traffic safety can be increased by reporting the long-term unfit drivers to the driver licensing authorities and referring the cases for further medical assessment. Evaluation of the frequency of cannabis use is a prerequisite for a reliable medical assessment of the fitness to drive. In a previous paper we advocated the use of two thresholds based on 11-nor-9-carboxy-Δ9-tetrahydrocannabinol (THCCOOH) concentration in whole blood to help to distinguish occasional cannabis users (≤3μg/L) from heavy regular smokers (≥40μg/L). These criteria were established on the basis of results obtained in a controlled cannabis smoking study with placebo, carried out with two groups of young male volunteers; the first group was characterized by a heavy use (≥10 joints/month) while the second group was made up of occasional users smoking at most 1 joint/week. However, to date, these cutoffs have not been adequately assessed under real conditions. Their validity can now be evaluated and confirmed with 146 traffic offenders' real cases in which the whole blood cannabinoid concentrations and the frequency of cannabis use are known. The two thresholds were not challenged by the presence of ethanol (40% of cases) and of other therapeutic and illegal drugs (24%). Thus, we propose the following procedure that can be very useful in the Swiss context but also in other countries with similar traffic policies: if the whole blood THCCOOH concentration is higher than 40μg/L, traffic offenders must be directed first and foremost toward medical assessment of their fitness to drive. This evaluation is not recommended if the THCCOOH concentration is lower than 3μg/L and if the self-rated frequency of cannabis use is less than 1 time/week. A THCCOOH level between these two thresholds cannot be reliably interpreted. In such a case, further medical assessment and follow-up of the fitness to drive are also suggested, but with lower priority.