Local and global error models to improve uncertainty quantification

In groundwater applications, Monte Carlo methods are employed to model the uncertainty on geological parameters. However, their brute-force application becomes computationally prohibitive for highly detailed geological descriptions, complex physical processes, and a large number of realizations. The Distance Kernel Method (DKM) overcomes this issue by clustering the realizations in a multidimensional space based on the flow responses obtained by means of an approximate (computationally cheaper) model; then, the uncertainty is estimated from the exact responses that are computed only for one representative realization per cluster (the medoid). Usually, DKM is employed to decrease the size of the sample of realizations that are considered to estimate the uncertainty. We propose to use the information from the approximate responses for uncertainty quantification. The subset of exact solutions provided by DKM is then employed to construct an error model and correct the potential bias of the approximate model. Two error models are devised that both employ the difference between approximate and exact medoid solutions, but differ in the way medoid errors are interpolated to correct the whole set of realizations. The Local Error Model rests upon the clustering defined by DKM and can be seen as a natural way to account for intra-cluster variability; the Global Error Model employs a linear interpolation of all medoid errors regardless of the cluster to which the single realization belongs. These error models are evaluated for an idealized pollution problem in which the uncertainty of the breakthrough curve needs to be estimated. For this numerical test case, we demonstrate that the error models improve the uncertainty quantification provided by the DKM algorithm and are effective in correcting the bias of the estimate computed solely from the MsFV results. The framework presented here is not specific to the methods considered and can be applied to other combinations of approximate models and techniques to select a subset of realizations

Role of the inflammasome in murine experimental models of arthritis

Summary : The purpose of this study was to investigate the role of the inflammasome in human and experimental murine models (such as ΑΙΑ and K/BxN) of rheumatoid arthritis (RA)RA, affecting 1% of the population is the most frequent inflammatory disease characterized by synovial hyperplasia and cartilage and bone erosion, leading to joint destruction. In general, women are 3 times more affected by RA suggesting a role of estrogen in this disease. The inflammasome is a multiproteic complex triggering the activation of caspase-1 leading to the activation of IL-1 β, an important pro-inflammatory cytokine implicated in arthritis. The inflammasome has been implicated in several inflammatory diseases and particularly in gout. To highlight a possible role of the inflammasome in murine arthritis, we obtained ASC, caspase-1 and NALP3 +/+ and -/- littermate mice to perform ΑΙΑ and K/BxN arthritis. NALP3 -/- and caspase-1 -/- mice were as arthritic as wild type littermate mice in both ΑΙΑ and K/BxN models implicating that the NALP3 inflammasome is not involved in experimental arthritis. By contrast, ΑΙΑ severity was significantly diminished in ASC- deficient male and female mice, and in the K/BxN model, in ASC-deficient female mice. These results were supported by histological scoring and acute phase protein serum amyloid A (SAA) levels that were equivalent between NALP+/+ and NALP3-/- mice and diminished in ASC -/- mice. In ΑΙΑ and K/BxN murine experimental models, we observed a sexdependent phenotype. We studied the role of estradiol in both the ALA and the K/BxN models. Castrated female or male ASC -/- mice that received estradiol had a decreased arthritis severity. This implies a protective role of estrogen in the absence of ASC. In the ΑΙΑ model, proliferation assay were performed using splenocytes from mBSA- immunized ASC +/+ and -/- mice. The mBSA-induced proliferation was significantly lower in ASC-/- splenocytes. Moreover the CD3-specific proliferation of purified splenic Τ cells was significantly lower in ASC-/- cells. Finally, Τ cells from ASC-/- mice produced significantly decreased levels of IFN-gamma associated with increased levels of IL-10. These results imply a possible role of ASC in the TCR-signaling pathway and Τ cell cytokine production. In parallel the expression of the different inflammasome components were analyzed in biopsies from rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA) patiens. The expression of the 14 different NALPs, their effector protein ASC, and caspase-1 and -5 was readily measurable by RT-PCR in a similar proportion in RA and OA synovial samples, with the exception of NALP-5 and NALP-13, which weren't found in samples from either disease. The corresponding NALP1, -3, -12 and ASC proteins were expressed at similar levels in both OA and RA biopsies, as determined by immunohistochemistry and Western-blot analysis. By contrast, caspase-1 levels were significantly enhanced in RA synovial tissues compared to those from OA patients. NALP-1, -2, -3, -10, -12 and -14, as well as ASC, caspase-1, and -5 were detected in RNA from unstimulated and stimulated RA synoviocytes. In FLS, only ASC and caspase-1 were expressed at the protein level. NALP1, 3 and 12 were not detected. However, upon stimulation, no secreted IL-Ιβ was detectable in either RA or in OA synoviocytes culture medium. Résumé : Le but de ce projet était d'étudier le rôle de l'inflammasome dans des modèles expérimentaux d'arthrite tels que les modèles ΑΙΑ et K/BxN ainsi que dans la polyarthrite humaine (RA). La polyarthrite est une maladie inflammatoire très fréquente avec 1 % de la population affectée et touche 3 fois plus les femmes que les hommes, suggérant un rôle des hormones sexuelles dans cette pathologie. L'inflammasome est un complexe multiprotéique qui permet l'activation de la caspase-1, une cystéine protéase qui va ensuite cliver et activer rinterleukine-ΐβ (IL-Ιβ). L'inflammasome a été impliqué ces dernières années dans de nombreuses maladies inflammatoires notamment dans la goutte. Pour mettre en évidence un éventuel rôle de l'inflammasome dans l'arthrite expérimentale nous avons obtenu des souris déficientes pour certains des composants de l'inflammasome tels que ASC, NALP3 et caspase-1. Les souris NALP3 déficientes et caspase-1 déficientes sont aussi arthritiques que les souris wild type correspondantes que ce soit dans le modèle ΑΙΑ ou K/BxN. Par contre les souris mâles et femelles ASC-déficientes sont moins arthritiques que les souris +/+ correspondantes dans le modèle ΑΙΑ. Dans le modèle KRN, le même phénotype (diminution de la sévérité de l'arthrite) est observé uniquement chez les femelles ASC-/- Ce phénotype est corrélé avec l'histologie ainsi qu'avec le dosage du serum amyloid A (SAA) qui reflète l'inflammation systémique et qui est diminué chez les souris ASC-déficientes. Nous avons ensuite étudié le rôle de Γ estradiol (une des formes active des estrogènes) dans les modèles K/BxN et ΑΙΑ. Les souris castrées maies ou femelles déficientes pour ASC ayant reçu de l'estradiol ont une arthrite moins sévère ce qui implique que les estradiol ont un effet protecteur en l'absence de ASC. Dans le modèle ΑΙΑ, nous nous sommes aussi intéressés à la réponse immune. Des tests de prolifération ont été effectués sur des splénocytes en présence de mBSA (qui est l'antigène utilisé dans le modèle ΑΙΑ). Les splénocytes ASC -/- ont une proliferation qui est diminuée en présence de l'antigène. De plus la proliferation de cellules Τ spléniques purifiées en présence d'anti-CD3 est diminuée chez les cellules Τ ASC-/-. Ces résultats nous indiquent une éventuelle implication de ASC dans la signalisation par le récépteur des cellules T. En parallèle l'expression des différents composants de l'inflammasome a été analysée dans des biopsies de patients atteints de polyarthrite rhumatoide (RA) et d'arthrose (OA). L'expression des 14 différents NALPs, de l'adaptateur ASC, ainsi que des caspase-1 et -5 était similaires dans les échantillons RA et OA, à l'exception de NALP5 et 13 qui n'étaient pas détéctables. L'expression protéique de NALP1, 3, 12 et ASC effectuée par Western blot et immunohistochimie était similaire dans les biopsies RA et OA. Par contre la quantité de la caspase-1 mesurée par ELISA était augmentée de façon significative dans les extraits protéiques de biopsies RA. NALP-1, -2. -3, -10, -12, and -14 ainsi que ASC, caspase-1 et -5 étaient exprimés de façon similaire par les synoviocytes RA non stimulés et stimulés. Dans les synoviocytes seuls ASC et caspase-1 étaient détéctable au niveau protéique. NALP-1, -3 et -12 n'était pas détéctables. Cependant après stimulation il n'y avait d'IL-Ιβ sécrété que ce soit dans les surnageants de cultures de synoviocytes RA ou OA.

SBML qualitative models: a model representation format and infrastructure to foster interactions between qualitative modelling formalisms and tools.

BACKGROUND: Qualitative frameworks, especially those based on the logical discrete formalism, are increasingly used to model regulatory and signalling networks. A major advantage of these frameworks is that they do not require precise quantitative data, and that they are well-suited for studies of large networks. While numerous groups have developed specific computational tools that provide original methods to analyse qualitative models, a standard format to exchange qualitative models has been missing. RESULTS: We present the Systems Biology Markup Language (SBML) Qualitative Models Package ("qual"), an extension of the SBML Level 3 standard designed for computer representation of qualitative models of biological networks. We demonstrate the interoperability of models via SBML qual through the analysis of a specific signalling network by three independent software tools. Furthermore, the collective effort to define the SBML qual format paved the way for the development of LogicalModel, an open-source model library, which will facilitate the adoption of the format as well as the collaborative development of algorithms to analyse qualitative models. CONCLUSIONS: SBML qual allows the exchange of qualitative models among a number of complementary software tools. SBML qual has the potential to promote collaborative work on the development of novel computational approaches, as well as on the specification and the analysis of comprehensive qualitative models of regulatory and signalling networks.

The antiviral adaptor proteins Cardif and Trif are processed and inactivated by caspases

The outcome of a viral infection depends on the interplay between the host's capacity to trigger potent antiviral responses and viral mechanisms that counteract them. Although Toll-like receptor (TLR)-3, which recognizes virally derived double-stranded (ds) RNA, transmits downstream antiviral signaling through the TIR adaptor Trif (TICAM-1), viral RNA-sensing RIG-like helicases (RLHs) use the mitochondrial-bound CARD protein Cardif (IPS-1/MAVS/VISA). The importance of these two antiviral signaling pathways is reflected by the fact that both adaptors are inhibited through specific cleavage triggered by the hepatitis C virus serine protease NS3-4A. Here, we show that inactivation can also occur through cellular caspases activated by various pro-apoptotic signals. Upon caspase-dependent cleavage both adaptors loose their capacity to activate the transcription factors interferon regulatory factors (IRF) and NF-kappaB. Importantly, poliovirus infection triggers a caspase-dependent cleavage of Cardif, suggesting that some viruses may activate caspases not only as a mean to facilitate shedding and replication, but also to impair antiviral responses

Pattern recognition ecological niche models fit to presence-only and presence-absence data

1. Identifying the boundary of a species' niche from observational and environmental data is a common problem in ecology and conservation biology and a variety of techniques have been developed or applied to model niches and predict distributions. Here, we examine the performance of some pattern-recognition methods as ecological niche models (ENMs). Particularly, one-class pattern recognition is a flexible and seldom used methodology for modelling ecological niches and distributions from presence-only data. The development of one-class methods that perform comparably to two-class methods (for presence/absence data) would remove modelling decisions about sampling pseudo-absences or background data points when absence points are unavailable. 2. We studied nine methods for one-class classification and seven methods for two-class classification (five common to both), all primarily used in pattern recognition and therefore not common in species distribution and ecological niche modelling, across a set of 106 mountain plant species for which presence-absence data was available. We assessed accuracy using standard metrics and compared trade-offs in omission and commission errors between classification groups as well as effects of prevalence and spatial autocorrelation on accuracy. 3. One-class models fit to presence-only data were comparable to two-class models fit to presence-absence data when performance was evaluated with a measure weighting omission and commission errors equally. One-class models were superior for reducing omission errors (i.e. yielding higher sensitivity), and two-classes models were superior for reducing commission errors (i.e. yielding higher specificity). For these methods, spatial autocorrelation was only influential when prevalence was low. 4. These results differ from previous efforts to evaluate alternative modelling approaches to build ENM and are particularly noteworthy because data are from exhaustively sampled populations minimizing false absence records. Accurate, transferable models of species' ecological niches and distributions are needed to advance ecological research and are crucial for effective environmental planning and conservation; the pattern-recognition approaches studied here show good potential for future modelling studies. This study also provides an introduction to promising methods for ecological modelling inherited from the pattern-recognition discipline.

Do habitat suitability models reliably predict the recovery areas of threatened species?

1. Identifying those areas suitable for recolonization by threatened species is essential to support efficient conservation policies. Habitat suitability models (HSM) predict species' potential distributions, but the quality of their predictions should be carefully assessed when the species-environment equilibrium assumption is violated.2. We studied the Eurasian otter Lutra lutra, whose numbers are recovering in southern Italy. To produce widely applicable results, we chose standard HSM procedures and looked for the models' capacities in predicting the suitability of a recolonization area. We used two fieldwork datasets: presence-only data, used in the Ecological Niche Factor Analyses (ENFA), and presence-absence data, used in a Generalized Linear Model (GLM). In addition to cross-validation, we independently evaluated the models with data from a recolonization event, providing presences on a previously unoccupied river.3. Three of the models successfully predicted the suitability of the recolonization area, but the GLM built with data before the recolonization disagreed with these predictions, missing the recolonized river's suitability and badly describing the otter's niche. Our results highlighted three points of relevance to modelling practices: (1) absences may prevent the models from correctly identifying areas suitable for a species spread; (2) the selection of variables may lead to randomness in the predictions; and (3) the Area Under Curve (AUC), a commonly used validation index, was not well suited to the evaluation of model quality, whereas the Boyce Index (CBI), based on presence data only, better highlighted the models' fit to the recolonization observations.4. For species with unstable spatial distributions, presence-only models may work better than presence-absence methods in making reliable predictions of suitable areas for expansion. An iterative modelling process, using new occurrences from each step of the species spread, may also help in progressively reducing errors.5. Synthesis and applications. Conservation plans depend on reliable models of the species' suitable habitats. In non-equilibrium situations, such as the case for threatened or invasive species, models could be affected negatively by the inclusion of absence data when predicting the areas of potential expansion. Presence-only methods will here provide a better basis for productive conservation management practices.

Towards a resolution of conflicting models of illusory contour processing in humans.

Despite myriad studies, neurophysiologic mechanisms mediating illusory contour (IC) sensitivity remain controversial. Among the competing models one favors feed-forward effects within lower-tier cortices (V1/V2). Another situates IC sensitivity first within higher-tier cortices, principally lateral-occipital cortices (LOC), with later feedback effects in V1/V2. Still others postulate that LOC are sensitive to salient regions demarcated by the inducing stimuli, whereas V1/V2 effects specifically support IC sensitivity. We resolved these discordances by using misaligned line gratings, oriented either horizontally or vertically, to induce ICs. Line orientation provides an established assay of V1/V2 modulations independently of IC presence, and gratings lack salient regions. Electrical neuroimaging analyses of visual evoked potentials (VEPs) disambiguated the relative timing and localization of IC sensitivity with respect to that for grating orientation. Millisecond-by-millisecond analyses of VEPs and distributed source estimations revealed a main effect of grating orientation beginning at 65 ms post-stimulus onset within the calcarine sulcus that was followed by a main effect of IC presence beginning at 85 ms post-stimulus onset within the LOC. There was no evidence for differential processing of ICs as a function of the orientation of the grating. These results support models wherein IC sensitivity occurs first within the LOC.

Processes models, environmental analyses, and cognitive architectures: Quo vadis quantum probability theory? (Commentary on Pothos and Busemeyer)

A lot of research in cognition and decision making suffers from a lack of formalism. The quantum probability program could help to improve this situation, but we wonder whether it would provide even more added value if its presumed focus on outcome models were complemented by process models that are, ideally, informed by ecological analyses and integrated into cognitive architectures.

Trans-SNARE pairing can precede a hemifusion intermediate in intracellular membrane fusion.

The question concerning whether all membranes fuse according to the same mechanism has yet to be answered satisfactorily. During fusion of model membranes or viruses, membranes dock, the outer membrane leaflets mix (termed hemifusion), and finally the fusion pore opens and the contents mix. Viral fusion proteins consist of a membrane-disturbing 'fusion peptide' and a helical bundle that pin the membranes together. Although SNARE (soluble N-ethylmaleimide-sensitive factor attachment protein receptor) complexes form helical bundles with similar topology, it is unknown whether SNARE-dependent fusion events on intracellular membranes proceed through a hemifusion state. Here we identify the first hemifusion state for SNARE-dependent fusion of native membranes, and place it into a sequence of molecular events: formation of helical bundles by SNAREs precedes hemifusion; further progression to pore opening requires additional peptides. Thus, SNARE-dependent fusion may proceed along the same pathway as viral fusion: both use a docking mechanism via helical bundles and additional peptides to destabilize the membrane and efficiently induce lipid mixing. Our results suggest that a common lipidic intermediate may underlie all fusion reactions of lipid bilayers.

Vesicular transport of d-serine in astrocytes

The concept of tripartite synapse suggests that astrocytes make up a functional synapse with pre- and postsynaptic neuronal elements to modulate synaptic transmission through the regulated release of neuromodulators called gliotransmitters. Release of gliotransmitters such as glutamate or D-serine has been shown to depend on Ca21-dependent exocytosis. However, the origin (cytosolic versus vesicular) of the released gliotransmitter is still a matter of debate. The existence of Ca21-regulated exocytosis in astrocytes has been questioned mostly because the nature of secretory organelles which are loaded with gliotransmitters is unknown. Here we show the existence of a population of vesicles that uptakes and stores glutamate and D-serine in astrocytes which are present in situ. Immunoisolated glial organelles expressing synaptobrevin 2 (Sb2) display morphological and biochemical features very similar to synaptic vesicles. We demonstrate that these organelles not only contain and uptake glutamate but also display a glia-specific transport activity for D-serine. Furthermore, we report that the uptake of D-serine is energized by a H1-ATPase present on the immunoisolated vesicles and that cytosolic chloride ions modulate the uptake of D-serine. Finally, we show that serine racemase (SR), the synthesizing enzyme for D-serine, is anchored to the membrane of glial organelles allowing a local and efficient concentration of the gliotransmitter to be transported. We conclude that vesicles in astrocytes do exist with the goal to store and release D-serine, glutamate and most likely other neuromodulators.

Models that include supercoiling of topological domains reproduce several known features of interphase chromosomes.

Understanding the structure of interphase chromosomes is essential to elucidate regulatory mechanisms of gene expression. During recent years, high-throughput DNA sequencing expanded the power of chromosome conformation capture (3C) methods that provide information about reciprocal spatial proximity of chromosomal loci. Since 2012, it is known that entire chromatin in interphase chromosomes is organized into regions with strongly increased frequency of internal contacts. These regions, with the average size of ∼1 Mb, were named topological domains. More recent studies demonstrated presence of unconstrained supercoiling in interphase chromosomes. Using Brownian dynamics simulations, we show here that by including supercoiling into models of topological domains one can reproduce and thus provide possible explanations of several experimentally observed characteristics of interphase chromosomes, such as their complex contact maps.

On the problematic of reserving and stochastic loss models

Abstract Traditionally, the common reserving methods used by the non-life actuaries are based on the assumption that future claims are going to behave in the same way as they did in the past. There are two main sources of variability in the processus of development of the claims: the variability of the speed with which the claims are settled and the variability between the severity of the claims from different accident years. High changes in these processes will generate distortions in the estimation of the claims reserves. The main objective of this thesis is to provide an indicator which firstly identifies and quantifies these two influences and secondly to determine which model is adequate for a specific situation. Two stochastic models were analysed and the predictive distributions of the future claims were obtained. The main advantage of the stochastic models is that they provide measures of variability of the reserves estimates. The first model (PDM) combines one conjugate family Dirichlet - Multinomial with the Poisson distribution. The second model (NBDM) improves the first one by combining two conjugate families Poisson -Gamma (for distribution of the ultimate amounts) and Dirichlet Multinomial (for distribution of the incremental claims payments). It was found that the second model allows to find the speed variability in the reporting process and development of the claims severity as function of two above mentioned distributions' parameters. These are the shape parameter of the Gamma distribution and the Dirichlet parameter. Depending on the relation between them we can decide on the adequacy of the claims reserve estimation method. The parameters have been estimated by the Methods of Moments and Maximum Likelihood. The results were tested using chosen simulation data and then using real data originating from the three lines of business: Property/Casualty, General Liability, and Accident Insurance. These data include different developments and specificities. The outcome of the thesis shows that when the Dirichlet parameter is greater than the shape parameter of the Gamma, resulting in a model with positive correlation between the past and future claims payments, suggests the Chain-Ladder method as appropriate for the claims reserve estimation. In terms of claims reserves, if the cumulated payments are high the positive correlation will imply high expectations for the future payments resulting in high claims reserves estimates. The negative correlation appears when the Dirichlet parameter is lower than the shape parameter of the Gamma, meaning low expected future payments for the same high observed cumulated payments. This corresponds to the situation when claims are reported rapidly and fewer claims remain expected subsequently. The extreme case appears in the situation when all claims are reported at the same time leading to expectations for the future payments of zero or equal to the aggregated amount of the ultimate paid claims. For this latter case, the Chain-Ladder is not recommended.