Modelling the influence of change in fire regime on the local distribution of a Mediterranean pyrophytic plant species (Cistus salviifolius) at its northern range limit

Aims: To assess the potential distribution of an obligate seeder and active pyrophyte, Cistus salviifolius, a vulnerable species in the Swiss Red List; to derive scenarios by changing the fire return interval; and to discuss the results from a conservation perspective. A more general aim is to assess the impact of fire as a natural factor influencing the vegetation of the southern slopes of the Alps. Locations: Alps, southern Switzerland. Methods: Presence-absence data to fit the model were obtained from the most recent field mapping of C. salviifolius. The quantitative environmental predictors used in this study include topographic, climatic and disturbance (fire) predictors. Models were fitted by logistic regression and evaluated by jackknife and bootstrap approaches. Changes in fire regime were simulated by increasing the time-return interval of fire (simulating longer periods without fire). Two scenarios were considered: no fire in the past 15 years; or in the past 35 years. Results: Rock cover, slope, topographic position, potential evapotranspiration and time elapsed since the last fire were selected in the final model. The Nagelkerke R-2 of the model for C. salviifolius was 0.57 and the Jackknife area under the curve evaluation was 0.89. The bootstrap evaluation revealed model robustness. By increasing the return interval of fire by either up to 15 years, or 35 years, the modelled C. salviifolius population declined by 30-40%, respectively. Main conclusions: Although fire plays a significant role, topography and rock cover appear to be the most important predictors, suggesting that the distribution of C. salviifolius in the southern Swiss Alps is closely related to the availability of supposedly competition-free sites, such as emerging bedrock, ridge locations or steep slopes. Fire is more likely to play a secondary role in allowing C. salviifolius to extend its occurrence temporarily, by increasing germination rates and reducing the competition from surrounding vegetation. To maintain a viable dormant seed bank for C. salviifolius, conservation managers should consider carrying out vegetation clearing and managing wild fire propagation to reduce competition and ensure sufficient recruitment for this species.

Cost limitation through constrained oviposition site in a plant-pollinator/seed predator mutualism

Mutualism often involves reciprocal exploitation due to individual selection for increased benefits even at the expense of the partner. Therefore, stability and outcomes of such interactions crucially depend on cost limitation mechanisms. In the plant, pollinator /seed predator interaction between Silene latifolia (Caryophyllaceae) and Hadena bicruris (Lepidoptera: Noctuidae), moths generate pollination benefits as adults but impose seed predation costs as larvae. We examined whether floral morphology limits over-exploitation by constraining oviposition site. Oviposition site varies naturally inside vs. outside the corolla tube, but neither its determinants nor its effect on the interaction have been investigated. In a common garden with plants originating from eight populations, corolla tube length predicted oviposition site, but not egg presence or pollination efficiency, suggesting that long corolla tubes constrain the moth to lay eggs on petals. Egg position was also predicted by the combined effect of corolla tube and moth ovipositor lengths, with shorter ovipositor than corolla tube resulting in higher probability for eggs outside. Egg position on a given plant was repeatable over different exposure nights. When egg position was experimentally manipulated, eggs placed on the petal resulted in significantly fewer successful fruit attacks compared with eggs placed inside the corolla tube, suggesting differences in egg/larval mortality. Egg position also differently affected larval mass, fruit mass and fruit development. Our results indicate that constraining oviposition site through a long corolla tube reduces seed predation costs suffered by the plant without negatively affecting pollination efficiency and, hence may act to limit over-exploitation. However, the net effects of corolla tube depth variation on this interaction may fluctuate with extrinsic factors affecting egg mortality, and with patterns of gene flow affecting trait matching between the interacting species. The intermediate fitness costs incurred by both plant and insect associated with the different egg positions may reduce selective pressures for this interaction to evolve towards antagonism, favouring instead a mutualistic outcome. While a role for oviposition site variation in cost limitation is a novel finding in this system, it may apply more generally also to other mutualisms involving pollinating seed predators.

Cost-effectiveness of temozolomide for the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma multiforme.

AIM: To perform a systematic review on the costs and cost-effectiveness of concomitant and adjuvant temozolomide with radiotherapy for the treatment of newly diagnosed glioblastoma compared with initial radiotherapy alone. METHODS: Electronic databases were searched for relevant publications on costs and cost-effectiveness until October 2008. RESULTS: We found four relevant clinical trials, one cost study and two economic models. The mean survival benefit in the radiotherapy plus temozolomide group varied between 0.21 and 0.25 life-years. Treatment costs were between 27,365 euros and 39,092 euros. The costs of temozolomide amounted to approximately 40% of the total treatment costs. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios found in the literature were 37,361 euros per life-year gained and 42,912 euros per quality-adjusted life-year gained. However, the models are not comparable because different outcomes are used (i.e., life-years and quality-adjusted life-years). CONCLUSION: Although the models are not comparable according to outcome, the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios found are within acceptable ranges. We concluded that despite the high temozolomide acquisition costs, the costs per life-year gained and the costs per quality-adjusted life-year gained are comparable with other accepted first-line treatments with chemotherapy in patients with cancer.

Dispersal routes reconstruction and the minimum cost arborescence problem.

We show that the dispersal routes reconstruction problem can be stated as an instance of a graph theoretical problem known as the minimum cost arborescence problem, for which there exist efficient algorithms. Furthermore, we derive some theoretical results, in a simplified setting, on the possible optimal values that can be obtained for this problem. With this, we place the dispersal routes reconstruction problem on solid theoretical grounds, establishing it as a tractable problem that also lends itself to formal mathematical and computational analysis. Finally, we present an insightful example of how this framework can be applied to real data. We propose that our computational method can be used to define the most parsimonious dispersal (or invasion) scenarios, which can then be tested using complementary methods such as genetic analysis.

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a European primary-care physician training in smoking cessation counseling.

BACKGROUND: Physician training in smoking cessation counseling has been shown to be effective as a means to increase quit success. We assessed the cost-effectiveness ratio of a smoking cessation counseling training programme. Its effectiveness was previously demonstrated in a cluster randomized, control trial performed in two Swiss university outpatients clinics, in which residents were randomized to receive training in smoking interventions or a control educational intervention. DESIGN AND METHODS: We used a Markov simulation model for effectiveness analysis. This model incorporates the intervention efficacy, the natural quit rate, and the lifetime probability of relapse after 1-year abstinence. We used previously published results in addition to hospital service and outpatient clinic cost data. The time horizon was 1 year, and we opted for a third-party payer perspective. RESULTS: The incremental cost of the intervention amounted to US$2.58 per consultation by a smoker, translating into a cost per life-year saved of US$25.4 for men and 35.2 for women. One-way sensitivity analyses yielded a range of US$4.0-107.1 in men and US$9.7-148.6 in women. Variations in the quit rate of the control intervention, the length of training effectiveness, and the discount rate yielded moderately large effects on the outcome. Variations in the natural cessation rate, the lifetime probability of relapse, the cost of physician training, the counseling time, the cost per hour of physician time, and the cost of the booklets had little effect on the cost-effectiveness ratio. CONCLUSIONS: Training residents in smoking cessation counseling is a very cost-effective intervention and may be more efficient than currently accepted tobacco control interventions.

Modelling plant species distribution in alpine grasslands using airborne imaging spectroscopy.

Remote sensing using airborne imaging spectroscopy (AIS) is known to retrieve fundamental optical properties of ecosystems. However, the value of these properties for predicting plant species distribution remains unclear. Here, we assess whether such data can add value to topographic variables for predicting plant distributions in French and Swiss alpine grasslands. We fitted statistical models with high spectral and spatial resolution reflectance data and tested four optical indices sensitive to leaf chlorophyll content, leaf water content and leaf area index. We found moderate added-value of AIS data for predicting alpine plant species distribution. Contrary to expectations, differences between species distribution models (SDMs) were not linked to their local abundance or phylogenetic/functional similarity. Moreover, spectral signatures of species were found to be partly site-specific. We discuss current limits of AIS-based SDMs, highlighting issues of scale and informational content of AIS data.

Validation of a Low-Cost Human Papillomavirus Genotyping Assay Based on PGMY PCR and Reverse Blotting Hybridization with Reusable Membranes.

The genotyping of human papillomaviruses (HPV) is essential for the surveillance of HPV vaccines. We describe and validate a low-cost PGMY-based PCR assay (PGMY-CHUV) for the genotyping of 31 HPV by reverse blotting hybridization (RBH). Genotype-specific detection limits were 50 to 500 genome equivalents per reaction. RBH was 100% specific and 98.61% sensitive using DNA sequencing as the gold standard (n = 1,024 samples). PGMY-CHUV was compared to the validated and commercially available linear array (Roche) on 200 samples. Both assays identified the same positive (n = 182) and negative samples (n = 18). Seventy-six percent of the positives were fully concordant after restricting the comparison to the 28 genotypes shared by both assays. At the genotypic level, agreement was 83% (285/344 genotype-sample combinations; κ of 0.987 for single infections and 0.853 for multiple infections). Fifty-seven of the 59 discordant cases were associated with multiple infections and with the weakest genotypes within each sample (P < 0.0001). PGMY-CHUV was significantly more sensitive for HPV56 (P = 0.0026) and could unambiguously identify HPV52 in mixed infections. PGMY-CHUV was reproducible on repeat testing (n = 275 samples; 392 genotype-sample combinations; κ of 0.933) involving different reagents lots and different technicians. Discordant results (n = 47) were significantly associated with the weakest genotypes in samples with multiple infections (P < 0.0001). Successful participation in proficiency testing also supported the robustness of this assay. The PGMY-CHUV reagent costs were estimated at $2.40 per sample using the least expensive yet proficient genotyping algorithm that also included quality control. This assay may be used in low-resource laboratories that have sufficient manpower and PCR expertise.

Learning wind fields with multiple kernels

This paper presents multiple kernel learning (MKL) regression as an exploratory spatial data analysis and modelling tool. The MKL approach is introduced as an extension of support vector regression, where MKL uses dedicated kernels to divide a given task into sub-problems and to treat them separately in an effective way. It provides better interpretability to non-linear robust kernel regression at the cost of a more complex numerical optimization. In particular, we investigate the use of MKL as a tool that allows us to avoid using ad-hoc topographic indices as covariables in statistical models in complex terrains. Instead, MKL learns these relationships from the data in a non-parametric fashion. A study on data simulated from real terrain features confirms the ability of MKL to enhance the interpretability of data-driven models and to aid feature selection without degrading predictive performances. Here we examine the stability of the MKL algorithm with respect to the number of training data samples and to the presence of noise. The results of a real case study are also presented, where MKL is able to exploit a large set of terrain features computed at multiple spatial scales, when predicting mean wind speed in an Alpine region.

How Much Does It Cost? Optimization of Costs in Sequence Analysis of Social Science Data

One major methodological problem in analysis of sequence data is the determination of costs from which distances between sequences are derived. Although this problem is currently not optimally dealt with in the social sciences, it has some similarity with problems that have been solved in bioinformatics for three decades. In this article, the authors propose an optimization of substitution and deletion/insertion costs based on computational methods. The authors provide an empirical way of determining costs for cases, frequent in the social sciences, in which theory does not clearly promote one cost scheme over another. Using three distinct data sets, the authors tested the distances and cluster solutions produced by the new cost scheme in comparison with solutions based on cost schemes associated with other research strategies. The proposed method performs well compared with other cost-setting strategies, while it alleviates the justification problem of cost schemes.