Blood pressure and cognitive function: a prospective analysis among adolescents in Seychelles.

OBJECTIVE: An inverse relationship between blood pressure (BP) and cognitive function has been found in adults, but limited data are available in adolescents and young adults. We examined the prospective relation between BP and cognitive function in adolescence. METHODS: We examined the association between BP measured at the ages of 12-15 years in school surveys and cognitive endpoints measured in the Seychelles Child Development Study at ages 17 (n = 407) and 19 (n = 429) years, respectively. We evaluated multiple domains of cognition based on subtests of the Cambridge Neurological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB), the Woodcock Johnson Test of Scholastic Achievement (WJTA), the Finger Tapping test (FT) and the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test (K-BIT). We used age, sex and height-specific z-scores of SBP, DBP and mean arterial pressure (MAP). RESULTS: Six out of the 21 cognitive endpoints tested were associated with BP. However, none of these associations were found to hold for both males and females or for different subtests within the same neurodevelopmental domain or for both SBP and DBP. Most of these associations disappeared when analyses were adjusted for selected potential confounding factors such as socio-economic status, birth weight, gestational age, BMI, alcohol consumption, blood glucose, and total n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fats. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings do not support a consistent association between BP and subsequent performance on tests assessing various cognitive domains in adolescents.

Blood pressure and cognitive function: a prospective analysis among adolescents in Seychelles

Objective: An inverse relationship between blood pressure and cognitive function has been found in adults, but limited data are available in adolescents and young adults. We prospectively examined the relation between blood pressure and cognitive function in adolescence. Methods: We examined the association between BP measured at the ages of 12-15 years in school surveys and cognitive endpoints measured in the Seychelles Child Development Study at ages 17 (n=407) and 19 (n=429) years respectively. We evaluated multiple domains of cognition based on subtests of the Cambridge Neurological Test Automated Battery (CANTAB), the Woodcock Johnson Test of Scholastic Achievement (WJTA), the Finger Tapping test (FT) and the Kaufman Brief Intelligence Test (K-BIT). We used age-, sex- and height-specific z-scores of systolic blood pressure (SBP), diastolic blood pressure (DBP) and mean arterial pressure (MAP). Results: Six out of the 21 cognitive endpoints tested were associated with BP. However, none of these associations were found to hold for both males and females or for different subtests within the same neurodevelopmental domain or for both SBP and DBP. Most of these associations disappeared when analyses were adjusted for selected potential confounding factors such as socio-economic status, birth weight, gestational age, body mass index, alcohol consumption, blood glucose, and total n-3 and n-6 polyunsaturated fats. Conclusions: Our findings do not support a consistent association between BP and subsequent performance on tests assessing various cognitive domains in adolescents.

Prevalence of obesity and overweight and associated nutritional factors in a population-based Swiss sample: an opportunity to analyze the impact of three different European cultural roots.

PURPOSE: Obesity represents a growing public health concern worldwide. The latest data in Switzerland rely on self-reported body mass index (BMI), leading to underestimation of prevalence. We reassessed the prevalence of obesity and overweight in a sample of the Swiss population using measured BMI and waist circumference (WC) and explored the association with nutritional factors and living in different linguistic-cultural regions. METHODS: Data of 1,505 participants of a cross-sectional population-based survey in the three linguistic regions of Switzerland were analyzed. BMI and WC were measured, and a 24-h urine collection was performed to evaluate dietary sodium, potassium and protein intake. RESULTS: The prevalence of overweight, obesity and abdominal obesity was 32.2, 14.2 and 33.6 %, respectively. Significant differences were observed in the regional distribution, with a lower prevalence in the Italian-speaking population. Low educational level, current smoking, scarce physical activity and being migrant were associated with an higher prevalence of obesity. Sodium, potassium and protein intake increased significantly across BMI categories. CONCLUSIONS: Obesity and overweight affect almost half of the Swiss adolescents and adults, and the prevalence appears to increase. Using BMI and WC to define obesity led to different prevalences. Differences were furthermore observed across Swiss linguistic-cultural regions, despite a common socio-economic and governmental framework. We found a positive association between obesity and salt intake, with a potential deleterious synergistic effect on cardiovascular risk.

Transition from pediatric to adult health care: expectations of adolescents with chronic disorders and their parents.

The aim of this study was to assess the expectations of adolescents with chronic disorders with regard to transition from pediatric to adult health care and to compare them with the expectations of their parents. A cross-sectional study was carried out including 283 adolescents with chronic disorders, aged 14-25 years (median age, 16.0 years), and not yet transferred to adult health care, and their 318 parents from two university children's hospitals. The majority of adolescents and parents (64%/70%) perceived the ages of 18-19 years and older as the best time to transfer to adult health care. Chronological age and feeling too old to see a pediatrician were reported as the most important decision factors for the transfer while the severity of the disease was not considered important. The most relevant barriers were feeling at ease with the pediatrician (45%/38%), anxiety (20%/24%), and lack of information about the adult specialist and health care (18%/27%). Of the 51% of adolescents with whom the pediatric specialist had spoken about the transfer, 53% of adolescents and 69% of parents preferred a joint transfer meeting with the pediatric and adult specialist, and 24% of these adolescents declared that their health professional had offered this option. In summary, the age preference for adolescents with chronic disorders and their parents to transfer to adult health care was higher than the upper age limits for admission to pediatric health care in many European countries. Anxiety and a lack of information of both adolescents and their parents were among the most important barriers for a smooth and timely transfer according to adolescents and parents.

Dietary vitamin D and cancers of the oral cavity and esophagus.

BACKGROUND: Data on the association between vitamin D and upper digestive tract neoplasms are limited. METHODS: In two case-control studies in Italy, we examined the relation between dietary vitamin D intake and squamous cell carcinoma of the esophagus (SCCE; 304 cases) and oral/pharyngeal cancer (804 cases). Odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were estimated by multiple logistic regression. RESULTS: Adjusted ORs for SCCE and oral/pharyngeal cancer were 0.58 (95% CI 0.39-0.86) and 0.76 (95% CI 0.60-0.94), respectively, for the highest tertile of vitamin D intake. Using a reference group of those in the highest tertile of vitamin D who were never/former smokers, ORs were 8.7 (95% CI 4.1-18.7) for SCCE and 10.4 (95% CI 6.9-15.5) for oral/pharyngeal cancer among heavy smokers in the lowest vitamin D tertile; similarly, compared with those in the highest tertile of vitamin D who drank <3 alcoholic drinks/day, corresponding ORs were 41.9 (95% CI 13.7-128.6) for SCCE and 8.5 (95% CI 5.7-12.5) for oral/pharyngeal cancer, among heavy alcohol drinkers in the lowest vitamin D tertile. CONCLUSION: We observed inverse associations between dietary vitamin D intake and risk of SCCE and, perhaps, oral/pharyngeal cancer, which were most pronounced among heavy current smokers and heavy consumers of alcohol.

On landslide risk, resilience and vulnerability of mountain communities in Central-Eastern Nepal

Executive SummaryIn Nepal, landslides are one of the major natural hazards after epidemics, killing over 100 persons per year. However, this figure is an underreported reflection of the actual impact that landslides have on livelihoods and food security in rural Nepal. With predictions of more intense rainfall patterns, landslide occurrence in the Himalayas is likely to increase and continue to be one of the major impediments to development. Due to the remoteness of many localities and lack of resources, responsibilities for disaster preparedness and response in mountain areas usually lie with the communities themselves. Everyday life is full of risk in mountains of Nepal. This is why mountain populations, as well as other populations living in harsh conditions have developed a number of coping strategies for dealing with adverse situations. Perhaps due to the dispersed and remote nature of landslides in Nepal, there have been few studies on vulnerability, coping- and mitigation strategies of landslide affected populations. There are also few recommendations available to guide authorities and populations how to reduce losses due to landslides in Nepal, and even less so, how to operationalize resilience and vulnerability.Many policy makers, international donors, NGOs and national authorities are currently asking what investments are needed to increase the so-called 'resilience' of mountain populations to deal with climate risks. However, mountain populations are already quite resilient to seasonal fluctuations, temperature variations, rainfall patterns and market prices. In spite of their resilience, they continue to live in places at risk due to high vulnerability caused by structural inequalities: access to land, resources, markets, education. This interdisciplinary thesis examines the concept of resilience by questioning its usefulness and validity as the current goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies, its conceptual limitations and its possible scope of action. The goal of this study is two-fold: to better define and distinguish factors and relationships between resilience, vulnerability, capacities and risk; and to test and improve a participatory methodology for evaluating landslide risk that can serve as a guidance tool for improving community-based disaster risk reduction. The objective is to develop a simple methodology that can be used by NGOs, local authorities and communities to reduce losses from landslides.Through its six case studies in Central-Eastern Nepal, this study explores the relation between resilience, vulnerability and landslide risk based on interdisciplinary methods, including geological assessments of landslides, semi-structured interviews, focus groups and participatory risk mapping. For comparison, the study sites were chosen in Tehrathum, Sunsari and Dolakha Districts of Central/Eastern Nepal, to reflect a variety of landslide types, from chronic to acute, and a variety of communities, from very marginalized to very high status. The study uses the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach as its conceptual basis, which is based on the notion that access and rights to resources (natural, human/institutional, economic, environmental, physical) are the basis for coping with adversity, such as landslides. The study is also intended as a contribution to the growing literature and practices on Community Based Disaster Risk Reduction specifically adapted to landslide- prone areas.In addition to the six case studies, results include an indicator based methodology for assessing and measuring vulnerability and resilience, a composite risk assessment methodology, a typology of coping strategies and risk perceptions and a thorough analysis of the relation between risk, vulnerability and resilience. The methodology forassessing vulnerability, resilience and risk is relatively cost-effective and replicable in a low-data environment. Perhaps the major finding is that resilience is a process that defines a community's (or system's) capacity to rebound following adversity but it does not necessarily reduce vulnerability or risk, which requires addressing more structural issues related to poverty. Therefore, conclusions include a critical view of resilience as a main goal of international development and disaster risk reduction policies. It is a useful concept in the context of recovery after a disaster but it needs to be addressed in parallel with vulnerability and risk.This research was funded by an interdisciplinary grant (#26083591) from the Swiss National Science Foundation for the period 2009-2011 and a seed grant from the Faculty of Geosciences and Environment at the University of Lausanne in 2008.Résumé en françaisAu Népal, les glissements de terrain sont un des aléas les plus dévastateurs après les épidémies, causant 100 morts par an. Pourtant, ce chiffre est une sous-estimation de l'impact réel de l'effet des glissements sur les moyens de subsistance et la sécurité alimentaire au Népal. Avec des prévisions de pluies plus intenses, l'occurrence des glissements dans les Himalayas augmente et présente un obstacle au développement. Du fait de l'éloignement et du manque de ressources dans les montagnes au Népal, la responsabilité de la préparation et la réponse aux catastrophes se trouve chez les communautés elles-mêmes. Le risque fait partie de la vie quotidienne dans les montagnes du Népal. C'est pourquoi les populations montagnardes, comme d'autres populations vivant dans des milieux contraignants, ont développé des stratégies pour faire face aux situations défavorables. Peu d'études existent sur la vulnérabilité, ceci étant probablement dû à l'éloignement et pourtant, les stratégies d'adaptation et de mitigation des populations touchées par des glissements au Népal existent.Beaucoup de décideurs politiques, bailleurs de fonds, ONG et autorités nationales se demandent quels investissements sont nécessaires afin d'augmenter la 'resilience' des populations de montagne pour faire face aux changements climatiques. Pourtant, ces populations sont déjà résilientes aux fluctuations des saisons, des variations de température, des pluies et des prix des marchés. En dépit de leur résilience, ils continuent de vivre dans des endroits à fort risque à cause des vulnérabilités créées par les inégalités structurelles : l'accès à la terre, aux ressources, aux marchés et à l'éducation. Cette thèse interdisciplinaire examine le concept de la résilience en mettant en cause son utilité et sa validité en tant que but actuel des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques, ainsi que ses limitations conceptuelles et ses possibles champs d'action. Le but de cette étude est double : mieux définir et distinguer les facteurs et relations entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité, les capacités et le risque ; Et tester et améliorer une méthode participative pour évaluer le risque des glissements qui peut servir en tant qu'outil indicatif pour améliorer la réduction des risques des communautés. Le but est de développer une méthodologie simple qui peut être utilisée par des ONG, autorités locales et communautés pour réduire les pertes dues aux glissements.A travers les études de cas au centre-est du Népal, cette étude explore le rapport entre la résilience, la vulnérabilité et les glissements basée sur des méthodes interdisciplinaires ; Y sont inclus des évaluations géologiques des glissements, des entretiens semi-dirigés, des discussions de groupes et des cartes de risques participatives. Pour la comparaison, les zones d'études ont été sélectionnées dans les districts de Tehrathum, Sunsari et Dolakha dans le centre-est du Népal, afin de refléter différents types de glissements, de chroniques à urgents, ainsi que différentes communautés, variant de très marginalisées à très haut statut. Pour son cadre conceptuel, cette étude s'appuie sur l'approche de moyens de subsistance durable, qui est basée sur les notions d'accès et de droit aux ressources (naturelles, humaines/institutionnelles, économiques, environnementales, physiques) et qui sont le minimum pour faire face à des situations difficiles, comme des glissements. Cette étude se veut aussi une contribution à la littérature et aux pratiques en croissantes sur la réduction des risques communautaires, spécifiquement adaptées aux zones affectées par des glissements.En plus des six études de cas, les résultats incluent une méthodologie basée sur des indicateurs pour évaluer et mesurer la vulnérabilité et la résilience, une méthodologie sur le risque composé, une typologie de stratégies d'adaptation et perceptions des risques ainsi qu'une analyse fondamentale de la relation entre risque, vulnérabilité et résilience. Les méthodologies pour l'évaluation de la vulnérabilité, de la résilience et du risque sont relativement peu coûteuses et reproductibles dans des endroits avec peu de données disponibles. Le résultat probablement le plus pertinent est que la résilience est un processus qui définit la capacité d'une communauté (ou d'un système) à rebondir suite à une situation défavorable, mais qui ne réduit pas forcement la vulnérabilité ou le risque, et qui requiert une approche plus fondamentale s'adressant aux questions de pauvreté. Les conclusions incluent une vue critique de la résilience comme but principal des politiques internationales de développement et de réduction des risques. C'est un concept utile dans le contexte de la récupération après une catastrophe mais il doit être pris en compte au même titre que la vulnérabilité et le risque.Cette recherche a été financée par un fonds interdisciplinaire (#26083591) du Fonds National Suisse pour la période 2009-2011 et un fonds de préparation de recherches par la Faculté des Géosciences et Environnement à l'Université de Lausanne en 2008.

Perception et communication du risque: du diabète à la maladie cardiovasculaire [Risk perception and communication: from diabetes to cardiovascular diseases].

Evidence-based medicine has enabled to approach disease in a more rational and scientific way. Clinical research has identified behaviours and risk factors that could cause disease often "silent" at the beginning, such as diabetes. Despite the clear impact of these evidences on public health, it seems that the individual risk perception level remains weak. To mention as well, the health professionals very often have a different views, which makes it difficult to communicate the risk with patients. In this article we describe the principles of risk perception, the diabetes related risk perception concerning cardiovascular complications, and suggest some practical strategies and tools which could improve risk communication in the everyday practice.

Differences in Frontal Activation in Adult Patients with Schizophrenia and in Psychotic Adolescents with Schizophrenic Symptoms in Two Fmri Tasks

Background: Language processing abnormalities and inhibition difficulties are hallmark features of schizophrenia. The objective of this study is to asses the blood oxygenation level-dependent (BOLD) response at two different stages of the illness and compare the frontal activity between adolescents and adults with schizophrenia. Methods: 10 adults with schizophrenia (mean age 31,5 years) and 6 psychotic adolescents with schizophrenic symptoms (mean age 16,2 years) underwent functional magnetic resonance imaging while performing two frontal tasks. Regional activation is compared in the bilateral frontal areas during a covert verbal fluency task (letter version) and a Stroop task (inhibition task). Results: Preliminary results show poorer task performance and less frontal cortex activation during both tasks in the adult group of patients with schizophrenia. In the adolescent patients group, fMRI analysis show significant and larger activity in the left frontal operculum (Broca's area) in the verbal fluency task and greater activity in the medium cingulate during the inhibition phase of the Stroop task. Conclusions: These preliminary findings suggest a decrease of frontal activity in the course of the illness. We assume that schizophrenia contributes to frontal brain activity reduction.

Obesity in Switzerland: a critical assessment of prevalence in children and adults.

The objective was to analyze the situation in Switzerland regarding the prevalence of overweight or obesity in children, adolescents and adults. The data were compared with France, an adjacent much larger country. The results showed that there is a definitive lack of objective information in Switzerland on the prevalence of obesity at different ages. As in other European studies, the fact that many national surveys are classically based on subject interviews (self-reported weights and heights rather than measured values) implies that the overweight/obesity prevalence is largely underestimated in adulthood. For example, in a recent Swiss epidemiological study, the prevalence of obesity (BMI greater than 30 kg/m(2)) averaged 6-7% in young men and women (25-34 y), the prevalence being underestimated by a factor of two to three when body weight was self-reported rather than measured. This phenomenon has already been observed in previous European studies. It is concluded that National Surveys based on telephone interviews generally produce biased obesity prevalence results, although the direction of the changes in prevalence of obesity and its evolution with repeated surveys using strict standardized methodology may be evaluated correctly. Therefore, these surveys should be complemented by large-scale epidemiological studies (based on measured anthropomeric variables rather than declared) covering the different linguistic areas of Switzerland. An epidemiological body weight (BMI) monitoring surveillance system, using a harmonized methodology among European countries, would help to accurately assess differences in obesity prevalence across Europe without methodological bias. It will permit monitoring of the dynamic evolution of obesity prevalence as well as the development of appropriate strategies (taking into account the specificity of each country) for obesity prevention and treatment.

Effectiveness of a brief integrative multiple substance use intervention among young men with and without booster sessions.

Brief interventions (BI) commonly employ screening and target a single substance. Multi-substance interventions are a more adequate reflection of risk behaviors in adolescents and young adults. Systematic screening complicates BI in many settings. The effectiveness of a voluntary multi-substance intervention among 19-year-old men and the incremental impact of booster sessions were analyzed. Participants were enrolled during mandatory army conscription in Switzerland. Compared with 461 controls, 392 BI subjects showed reduced substance use on 10 of 12 measures (4 tobacco, 4 cannabis, and 2 alcohol measures). Between-group effects were small and non-significant (except for cannabis use prevalence). Three-month booster sessions were not effective and even contraindicated. The usefulness of targeting multi-substances during BIs without prior screening depends on the value of small effects. The addition of booster sessions was not effective and therefore is not recommended.

Having a good relationship with their mother: a protective factor against sexual risk behavior among adolescent females?

STUDY OBJECTIVE: To assess whether having a good relationship with their mother was a protective factor against risky sexual behavior for female adolescents and whether it was independent of family structure. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey of in-school adolescents aged 14-19 years. SETTING: Catalonia, in northeast Spain. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 3677 females divided according on whether they had a good (n=3335) or a bad (n=342) relationship with their mother. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Rates of sexual activity and sexual behavior. RESULTS: Adolescents in the good relationship group were significantly younger, more likely to live in an intact family, to have a good relationship with their father and siblings, and to talk about sexuality and their partner with their mother. They were also less likely to have ever had sexual intercourse. Among those sexually experienced, they were significantly older at first intercourse and less likely to have multiple partners or a history of STI. After adjusting for potential confounders, females in the good relationship group were less likely to be sexually active and to have had multiple partners, independently of family structure. CONCLUSIONS: Having a good relationship with their mother is a protective factor against sexual intercourse and having multiple sexual partners independently of family structure. Communication between generations and having a good relationship with their father and siblings also play an important role.

Extraintestinal manifestations in inflammatory bowel disease: frequency and associated risk factors in the nationwide Swiss IBD cohort study (SIBDCS)

Background: Data on the frequency of extraintestinal manifestations (EIM) in Crohnʼs disease (CD) and ulcerative colitis (UC) are scarce. Goal: to evaluate prevalences, forms of EIM and risk factors in a large nationwide IBD cohort. Methods: Data from validated physician enrolment questionnaires of the adult Swiss IBD cohort were analyzed. Logistic regression models were used to identify EIM risk factors. Results: 950 patients were included, 580 (61%) with CD (mean age 43yrs) and 370 (39%) with UC (mean age 49yrs), of these, 249 (43%) of CD and 113 (31%) of UC patients had one to 5 EIM. The following EIM were found: arthritis (CD 33%, UC 21%), aphthous stomatitis (CD 10%, UC 4%), uveitis (CD 6%, UC 4%), erythema nodosum (CD 6%, UC 3%), ankylosing spondylitis (CD 6%, UC 2%), psoriasis (CD 2%, UC 1%), pyoderma gangrenosum (CD and UC each 2%), primary sclerosing cholangitis (CD 1%, UC 4%). Logistic regression in CD identified the following items as risk factors for ongoing EIM: active disease (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.17-3.23, P=0.01), positive IBD family history (OR 1.77, 95% CI 1.07-2.92, P=0.025). No risk factors were identified in UC patients. Conclusions: EIM are a frequent problem in CD and UC patients. Active disease and positive IBD family history are associated with ongoing EIM in CD patients. Identification of EIM prevalence and associated risk factors may result in increased awareness for this problem and thereby facilitate their diagnosis and management.

Common genetic loci influencing plasma homocysteine concentrations and their effect on risk of coronary artery disease.

BACKGROUND: The strong observational association between total homocysteine (tHcy) concentrations and risk of coronary artery disease (CAD) and the null associations in the homocysteine-lowering trials have prompted the need to identify genetic variants associated with homocysteine concentrations and risk of CAD. OBJECTIVE: We tested whether common genetic polymorphisms associated with variation in tHcy are also associated with CAD. DESIGN: We conducted a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies (GWAS) on tHcy concentrations in 44,147 individuals of European descent. Polymorphisms associated with tHcy (P < 10(-8)) were tested for association with CAD in 31,400 cases and 92,927 controls. RESULTS: Common variants at 13 loci, explaining 5.9% of the variation in tHcy, were associated with tHcy concentrations, including 6 novel loci in or near MMACHC (2.1 Ã- 10(-9)), SLC17A3 (1.0 Ã- 10(-8)), GTPB10 (1.7 Ã- 10(-8)), CUBN (7.5 Ã- 10(-10)), HNF1A (1.2 Ã- 10(-12)), and FUT2 (6.6 Ã- 10(-9)), and variants previously reported at or near the MTHFR, MTR, CPS1, MUT, NOX4, DPEP1, and CBS genes. Individuals within the highest 10% of the genotype risk score (GRS) had 3-μmol/L higher mean tHcy concentrations than did those within the lowest 10% of the GRS (P = 1 Ã- 10(-36)). The GRS was not associated with risk of CAD (OR: 1.01; 95% CI: 0.98, 1.04; P = 0.49). CONCLUSIONS: We identified several novel loci that influence plasma tHcy concentrations. Overall, common genetic variants that influence plasma tHcy concentrations are not associated with risk of CAD in white populations, which further refutes the causal relevance of moderately elevated tHcy concentrations and tHcy-related pathways for CAD.

Adding tobacco to cannabis: its frequency and likely implications.

INTRODUCTION: Young cannabis users are at increased risk of later cigarette initiation and progression to nicotine addiction. The present study addresses the frequency at which mulling (adding tobacco to cannabis smoked as joints) is performed and in which way this practice varies according to cigarette smoking status. METHODS: Data were issued from the Swiss 2007 European School Survey Project on Alcohol and other Drugs (ESPAD). A total of 881 past month cannabis users (mean age 15 years, boys 60.1%) were inquired on mulling using an anonymous self-administered questionnaire. Participants were further grouped according to their cigarette smoking status (daily, occasional, former, and never-smokers). RESULTS: Four of every 5 cannabis users depicted mulling as frequently performed. The highest occurrence was found among daily cigarette smokers (DSC; 90.3%), while former cigarette smokers reported the lowest (58.9%). The multinomial logistic regression showed DSC more likely reporting mulling as frequent compared with never-smokers (risk ratio = 3.56 [95% CI 1.55-8.21]). Conclusions: Mulling appears to be a very common process among young cannabis users, especially among concomitant cigarette smokers. Nevertheless, the majority of cigarette abstainers also reported frequently adding tobacco to the cannabis they smoke. Because it may represent a significant exposition to nicotine, mulling should be taken into account when assessing substance use among adolescents and in supporting their quitting attempts.

Risk and global change : developing scientific methods for advocacy and awareness raising

Les catastrophes sont souvent perçues comme des événements rapides et aléatoires. Si les déclencheurs peuvent être soudains, les catastrophes, elles, sont le résultat d'une accumulation des conséquences d'actions et de décisions inappropriées ainsi que du changement global. Pour modifier cette perception du risque, des outils de sensibilisation sont nécessaires. Des méthodes quantitatives ont été développées et ont permis d'identifier la distribution et les facteurs sous- jacents du risque.¦Le risque de catastrophes résulte de l'intersection entre aléas, exposition et vulnérabilité. La fréquence et l'intensité des aléas peuvent être influencées par le changement climatique ou le déclin des écosystèmes, la croissance démographique augmente l'exposition, alors que l'évolution du niveau de développement affecte la vulnérabilité. Chacune de ses composantes pouvant changer, le risque est dynamique et doit être réévalué périodiquement par les gouvernements, les assurances ou les agences de développement. Au niveau global, ces analyses sont souvent effectuées à l'aide de base de données sur les pertes enregistrées. Nos résultats montrent que celles-ci sont susceptibles d'être biaisées notamment par l'amélioration de l'accès à l'information. Elles ne sont pas exhaustives et ne donnent pas d'information sur l'exposition, l'intensité ou la vulnérabilité. Une nouvelle approche, indépendante des pertes reportées, est donc nécessaire.¦Les recherches présentées ici ont été mandatées par les Nations Unies et par des agences oeuvrant dans le développement et l'environnement (PNUD, l'UNISDR, la GTZ, le PNUE ou l'UICN). Ces organismes avaient besoin d'une évaluation quantitative sur les facteurs sous-jacents du risque, afin de sensibiliser les décideurs et pour la priorisation des projets de réduction des risques de désastres.¦La méthode est basée sur les systèmes d'information géographique, la télédétection, les bases de données et l'analyse statistique. Une importante quantité de données (1,7 Tb) et plusieurs milliers d'heures de calculs ont été nécessaires. Un modèle de risque global a été élaboré pour révéler la distribution des aléas, de l'exposition et des risques, ainsi que pour l'identification des facteurs de risque sous- jacent de plusieurs aléas (inondations, cyclones tropicaux, séismes et glissements de terrain). Deux indexes de risque multiples ont été générés pour comparer les pays. Les résultats incluent une évaluation du rôle de l'intensité de l'aléa, de l'exposition, de la pauvreté, de la gouvernance dans la configuration et les tendances du risque. Il apparaît que les facteurs de vulnérabilité changent en fonction du type d'aléa, et contrairement à l'exposition, leur poids décroît quand l'intensité augmente.¦Au niveau local, la méthode a été testée pour mettre en évidence l'influence du changement climatique et du déclin des écosystèmes sur l'aléa. Dans le nord du Pakistan, la déforestation induit une augmentation de la susceptibilité des glissements de terrain. Les recherches menées au Pérou (à base d'imagerie satellitaire et de collecte de données au sol) révèlent un retrait glaciaire rapide et donnent une évaluation du volume de glace restante ainsi que des scénarios sur l'évolution possible.¦Ces résultats ont été présentés à des publics différents, notamment en face de 160 gouvernements. Les résultats et les données générées sont accessibles en ligne (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). La méthode est flexible et facilement transposable à des échelles et problématiques différentes, offrant de bonnes perspectives pour l'adaptation à d'autres domaines de recherche.¦La caractérisation du risque au niveau global et l'identification du rôle des écosystèmes dans le risque de catastrophe est en plein développement. Ces recherches ont révélés de nombreux défis, certains ont été résolus, d'autres sont restés des limitations. Cependant, il apparaît clairement que le niveau de développement configure line grande partie des risques de catastrophes. La dynamique du risque est gouvernée principalement par le changement global.¦Disasters are often perceived as fast and random events. If the triggers may be sudden, disasters are the result of an accumulation of actions, consequences from inappropriate decisions and from global change. To modify this perception of risk, advocacy tools are needed. Quantitative methods have been developed to identify the distribution and the underlying factors of risk.¦Disaster risk is resulting from the intersection of hazards, exposure and vulnerability. The frequency and intensity of hazards can be influenced by climate change or by the decline of ecosystems. Population growth increases the exposure, while changes in the level of development affect the vulnerability. Given that each of its components may change, the risk is dynamic and should be reviewed periodically by governments, insurance companies or development agencies. At the global level, these analyses are often performed using databases on reported losses. Our results show that these are likely to be biased in particular by improvements in access to information. International losses databases are not exhaustive and do not give information on exposure, the intensity or vulnerability. A new approach, independent of reported losses, is necessary.¦The researches presented here have been mandated by the United Nations and agencies working in the development and the environment (UNDP, UNISDR, GTZ, UNEP and IUCN). These organizations needed a quantitative assessment of the underlying factors of risk, to raise awareness amongst policymakers and to prioritize disaster risk reduction projects.¦The method is based on geographic information systems, remote sensing, databases and statistical analysis. It required a large amount of data (1.7 Tb of data on both the physical environment and socio-economic parameters) and several thousand hours of processing were necessary. A comprehensive risk model was developed to reveal the distribution of hazards, exposure and risk, and to identify underlying risk factors. These were performed for several hazards (e.g. floods, tropical cyclones, earthquakes and landslides). Two different multiple risk indexes were generated to compare countries. The results include an evaluation of the role of the intensity of the hazard, exposure, poverty, governance in the pattern and trends of risk. It appears that the vulnerability factors change depending on the type of hazard, and contrary to the exposure, their weight decreases as the intensity increases.¦Locally, the method was tested to highlight the influence of climate change and the ecosystems decline on the hazard. In northern Pakistan, deforestation exacerbates the susceptibility of landslides. Researches in Peru (based on satellite imagery and ground data collection) revealed a rapid glacier retreat and give an assessment of the remaining ice volume as well as scenarios of possible evolution.¦These results were presented to different audiences, including in front of 160 governments. The results and data generated are made available online through an open source SDI (http://preview.grid.unep.ch). The method is flexible and easily transferable to different scales and issues, with good prospects for adaptation to other research areas. The risk characterization at a global level and identifying the role of ecosystems in disaster risk is booming. These researches have revealed many challenges, some were resolved, while others remained limitations. However, it is clear that the level of development, and more over, unsustainable development, configures a large part of disaster risk and that the dynamics of risk is primarily governed by global change.