Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Light intensity modulates the regulatory network of the shade avoidance response in Arabidopsis.

Plants such as Arabidopsis thaliana respond to foliar shade and neighbors who may become competitors for light resources by elongation growth to secure access to unfiltered sunlight. Challenges faced during this shade avoidance response (SAR) are different under a light-absorbing canopy and during neighbor detection where light remains abundant. In both situations, elongation growth depends on auxin and transcription factors of the phytochrome interacting factor (PIF) class. Using a computational modeling approach to study the SAR regulatory network, we identify and experimentally validate a previously unidentified role for long hypocotyl in far red 1, a negative regulator of the PIFs. Moreover, we find that during neighbor detection, growth is promoted primarily by the production of auxin. In contrast, in true shade, the system operates with less auxin but with an increased sensitivity to the hormonal signal. Our data suggest that this latter signal is less robust, which may reflect a cost-to-robustness tradeoff, a system trait long recognized by engineers and forming the basis of information theory.

Anesthesia prevents auditory perceptual learning.

BACKGROUND: An auditory perceptual learning paradigm was used to investigate whether implicit memories are formed during general anesthesia. METHODS: Eighty-seven patients who had an American Society of Anesthesiologists physical status of I-III and were scheduled to undergo an elective surgery with general anesthesia were randomly assigned to one of two groups. One group received auditory stimulation during surgery, whereas the other did not. The auditory stimulation consisted of pure tones presented via headphones. The Bispectral Index level was maintained between 40 and 50 during surgery. To assess learning, patients performed an auditory frequency discrimination task after surgery, and comparisons were made between the groups. General anesthesia was induced with thiopental and maintained with a mixture of fentanyl and sevoflurane. RESULTS: There was no difference in the amount of learning between the two groups (mean +/- SD improvement: stimulated patients 9.2 +/- 11.3 Hz, controls 9.4 +/- 14.1 Hz). There was also no difference in initial thresholds (mean +/- SD initial thresholds: stimulated patients 31.1 +/- 33.4 Hz, controls 28.4 +/- 34.2 Hz). These results suggest that perceptual learning was not induced during anesthesia. No correlation between the bispectral index and the initial level of performance was found (Pearson r = -0.09, P = 0.59). CONCLUSION: Perceptual learning was not induced by repetitive auditory stimulation during anesthesia. This result may indicate that perceptual learning requires top-down processing, which is suppressed by the anesthetic.

Glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide receptor knockout mice are impaired in learning, synaptic plasticity, and neurogenesis.

Glucose-dependent insulinotropic polypeptide (GIP) is a key incretin hormone, released from intestine after a meal, producing a glucose-dependent insulin secretion. The GIP receptor (GIPR) is expressed on pyramidal neurons in the cortex and hippocampus, and GIP is synthesized in a subset of neurons in the brain. However, the role of the GIPR in neuronal signaling is not clear. In this study, we used a mouse strain with GIPR gene deletion (GIPR KO) to elucidate the role of the GIPR in neuronal communication and brain function. Compared with C57BL/6 control mice, GIPR KO mice displayed higher locomotor activity in an open-field task. Impairment of recognition and spatial learning and memory of GIPR KO mice were found in the object recognition task and a spatial water maze task, respectively. In an object location task, no impairment was found. GIPR KO mice also showed impaired synaptic plasticity in paired-pulse facilitation and a block of long-term potentiation in area CA1 of the hippocampus. Moreover, a large decrease in the number of neuronal progenitor cells was found in the dentate gyrus of transgenic mice, although the numbers of young neurons was not changed. Together the results suggest that GIP receptors play an important role in cognition, neurotransmission, and cell proliferation.

Learning from failure - rationale and design for a study about discontinuation of randomized trials (DISCO study).

BACKGROUND: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) may be discontinued because of apparent harm, benefit, or futility. Other RCTs are discontinued early because of insufficient recruitment. Trial discontinuation has ethical implications, because participants consent on the premise of contributing to new medical knowledge, Research Ethics Committees (RECs) spend considerable effort reviewing study protocols, and limited resources for conducting research are wasted. Currently, little is known regarding the frequency and characteristics of discontinued RCTs. METHODS/DESIGN: Our aims are, first, to determine the prevalence of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons; second, to determine whether the risk of RCT discontinuation for specific reasons differs between investigator- and industry-initiated RCTs; third, to identify risk factors for RCT discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment; fourth, to determine at what stage RCTs are discontinued; and fifth, to examine the publication history of discontinued RCTs.We are currently assembling a multicenter cohort of RCTs based on protocols approved between 2000 and 2002/3 by 6 RECs in Switzerland, Germany, and Canada. We are extracting data on RCT characteristics and planned recruitment for all included protocols. Completion and publication status is determined using information from correspondence between investigators and RECs, publications identified through literature searches, or by contacting the investigators. We will use multivariable regression models to identify risk factors for trial discontinuation due to insufficient recruitment. We aim to include over 1000 RCTs of which an anticipated 150 will have been discontinued due to insufficient recruitment. DISCUSSION: Our study will provide insights into the prevalence and characteristics of RCTs that were discontinued. Effective recruitment strategies and the anticipation of problems are key issues in the planning and evaluation of trials by investigators, Clinical Trial Units, RECs and funding agencies. Identification and modification of barriers to successful study completion at an early stage could help to reduce the risk of trial discontinuation, save limited resources, and enable RCTs to better meet their ethical requirements.

Partial Cricotracheal Resection in Children: Potential Pitfalls and Avoidance of Complications.

OBJECTIVES: To delineate the various factors contributing to failure or delay in decannulation after partial cricotracheal resection (PCTR) in children. STUDY DESIGN: Case series. SETTING: Academic tertiary medical center. SUBJECTS AND METHODS: A retrospective case review of 100 children who underwent PCTR between 1978 and 2008 for severe subglottic stenosis using an ongoing database. RESULTS: Ninety of 100 (90%) patients were decannulated. Six patients needed secondary tracheostomy. The results of the preoperative evaluation showed grade II stenosis in four patients, grade III in 64 patients, and grade IV in 32 patients. The overall decannulation rate was 100 percent in grade II, 95 percent in grade III, and 78 percent in grade IV stenosis. Fourteen (14%) patients required revision open surgery. The most common cause of revision surgery was posterior glottic stenosis. Partial anastomotic dehiscence was seen in four patients. Delayed decannulation (>1 year) occurred in nine patients. Overall mortality rate in the whole series was 6 percent. No deaths were directly related to the surgery. No iatrogenic recurrent laryngeal nerve injury was present in the entire series. CONCLUSION: Comorbidities and associated syndromes should be addressed before PCTR is planned to improve the final postoperative outcome in terms of decannulation. Perioperative morbidity due to anastomotic dehiscence, to a certain extent, can be avoided by intraoperative judgment in the selection of double-stage surgery when more than five tracheal rings need to be resected. Subglottic stenosis with glottic involvement continues to pose a difficult challenge to pediatric otolaryngologists, often necessitating revision procedures.

The neuronal monocarboxylate transporter MCT2: its regulation by BDNF and its role in learning and memory

Glucose has been considered the major, if not the exclusive, energy substrate for the brain. But under certain physiological and pathological conditions other substrates, namely monocarboxylates (lactate, pyruvate and ketone bodies), can contribute significantly to satisfy brain energy demands. These monocarboxylates need to be transported across the blood-brain barrier or out of astrocytes into the extracellular space and taken up into neurons. It has been shown that monocarboxylates are transported by a family of proton-linked transporters called monocarboxylate transporters (MCTs). In the central nervous system, MCT2 is the predominant neuronal isoform and little is known about the regulation of its expression. Noradrenaline (NA), insulin and IGF-1 were previously shown to enhance the expression of MCT2 in cultured cortical neurons via a translational mechanism. Here we demonstrate that the well known brain neurotrophic factor BDNF enhances MCT2 protein expression in cultured cortical neurons and in synaptoneurosome preparations in a time- and concentrationdependent manner without affecting MCT2 mRNA levels. We observed that BDNF induced MCT2 expression by activation of MAPK as well as PI3K/Akt/mTOR signaling pathways. Furthermore, we investigated the possible post-transcriptional regulation of MCT2 expression by a neuronal miRNA. Then, we demonstrated that BDNF enhanced MCT2 expression in the hippocampus in vivo, in parallel with some post-synaptic proteins such as PSD95 and AMPA receptor GluR2/3 subunits, and two immediate early genes Arc and Zif268 known to be expressed in conditions related to synaptic plasticity. In the last part, we demonstrated in vivo that a downregulation of hippocampal MCT2 via silencing with an appropriate lentiviral vector in mice caused an impairment of working memory without reference memory deficit. In conclusion, these results suggest that regulation of neuronal monocarboxylate transporter MCT2 expression could be a key event in the context of synaptic plasticity, allowing an adequate energy substrate supply in situations of altered synaptic efficacy. - Le glucose représente le substrat énergétique majeur pour le cerveau. Cependant, dans certaines conditions physiologiques ou pathologiques, le cerveau a la capacité d'utiliser des substrats énergéiques appartenant à la classe des monocarboxylates (lactate, pyruvate et corps cétoniques) afin de satisfaire ses besoins énergétiques. Ces monocarboxylates doivent être transportés à travers la barrière hématoencéphalique mais aussi hors des astrocytes vers l'espace extracellulaire puis re-captés par les neurones. Leur transport est assuré par une famillle de transporteurs aux monocarboxylates (MCTs). Dans le système nerveux central, les neurones expriment principalement l'isoforme MCT2 mais peu d'informations sont disponibles concernant la régulation de son expression. Il a été montré que la noradrénaline, l'insuline et l'IGF-1 induisent l'expression de MCT2 dans des cultures de neurones corticaux par un mécanisme traductionnel. Dans cette étude nous démontrons dans un premier temps que le facteur neurotrophique BDNF augmente l'expression de MCT2 à la fois dans des cultures de neurones corticaux et dans les préparations synaptoneurosomales selon un décours temporel et une gamme de concentrations propre. Aucun changement n'a été observé concernant les niveaux d'ARNm de MCT2. Nous avons observé que le BDNF induisait l'expression de MCT2 par l'activation simultanée des voies de signalisation MAPK et PI3K/Akt/mTOR. De plus, nous nous sommes intéressés à une potentielle régulation par les micro-ARNs de la synthèse de MCT2. Ensuite, nous avons démontré que le BDNF induit aussi l'expression de MCT2 dans l'hippocampe de la souris en parallèle avec d'autres protéines post-synaptiques telles que PSD95 et GluR2/3 et avec deux « immediate early genes » tels que Arc et Zif268 connus pour être exprimés dans des conditions de plasticité synaptique. Dans un dernier temps, nous avons démontré qu'une diminution d'expression de MCT2 induite par le biais d'un siRNA exprimé via un vecteur lentiviral dans l'hippocampe de souris générait des déficits de mémoire de travail sans affecter la mémoire de référence. En conclusion, ces résultats nous suggèrent que le transporteur aux monocarboxylates neuronal MCT2 serait essentiel pour l'apport énergétique du lactate pour les neurones dans des conditions de haute activité neuronale comme c'est le cas pendant les processus de plasticité synaptique.