A spatial modelling framework for assessing climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems: Response of brown trout (Salmo trutta L.) biomass to warming water temperature

Mountain regions worldwide are particularly sensitive to on-going climate change. Specifically in the Alps in Switzerland, the temperature has increased twice as fast than in the rest of the Northern hemisphere. Water temperature closely follows the annual air temperature cycle, severely impacting streams and freshwater ecosystems. In the last 20 years, brown trout (Salmo trutta L) catch has declined by approximately 40-50% in many rivers in Switzerland. Increasing water temperature has been suggested as one of the most likely cause of this decline. Temperature has a direct effect on trout population dynamics through developmental and disease control but can also indirectly impact dynamics via food-web interactions such as resource availability. We developed a spatially explicit modelling framework that allows spatial and temporal projections of trout biomass using the Aare river catchment as a model system, in order to assess the spatial and seasonal patterns of trout biomass variation. Given that biomass has a seasonal variation depending on trout life history stage, we developed seasonal biomass variation models for three periods of the year (Autumn-Winter, Spring and Summer). Because stream water temperature is a critical parameter for brown trout development, we first calibrated a model to predict water temperature as a function of air temperature to be able to further apply climate change scenarios. We then built a model of trout biomass variation by linking water temperature to trout biomass measurements collected by electro-fishing in 21 stations from 2009 to 2011. The different modelling components of our framework had overall a good predictive ability and we could show a seasonal effect of water temperature affecting trout biomass variation. Our statistical framework uses a minimum set of input variables that make it easily transferable to other study areas or fish species but could be improved by including effects of the biotic environment and the evolution of demographical parameters over time. However, our framework still remains informative to spatially highlight where potential changes of water temperature could affect trout biomass. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.-

Multiplicative interaction of functional inflammasome genetic variants in determining the risk of gout.

INTRODUCTION: The acute gout flare results from a localised self-limiting innate immune response to monosodium urate (MSU) crystals deposited in joints in hyperuricaemic individuals. Activation of the caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 8 (CARD8) NOD-like receptor pyrin-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome by MSU crystals and production of mature interleukin-1β (IL-1β) is central to acute gouty arthritis. However very little is known about genetic control of the innate immune response involved in acute gouty arthritis. Therefore our aim was to test functional single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants in the toll-like receptor (TLR)-inflammasome-IL-1β axis for association with gout. METHODS: 1,494 gout cases of European and 863 gout cases of New Zealand (NZ) Polynesian (Māori and Pacific Island) ancestry were included. Gout was diagnosed by the 1977 ARA gout classification criteria. There were 1,030 Polynesian controls and 10,942 European controls including from the publicly-available Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham Heart (FHS) studies. The ten SNPs were either genotyped by Sequenom MassArray or by Affymetrix SNP array or imputed in the ARIC and FHS datasets. Allelic association was done by logistic regression adjusting by age and sex with European and Polynesian data combined by meta-analysis. Sample sets were pooled for multiplicative interaction analysis, which was also adjusted by sample set. RESULTS: Eleven SNPs were tested in the TLR2, CD14, IL1B, CARD8, NLRP3, MYD88, P2RX7, DAPK1 and TNXIP genes. Nominally significant (P < 0.05) associations with gout were detected at CARD8 rs2043211 (OR = 1.12, P = 0.007), IL1B rs1143623 (OR = 1.10, P = 0.020) and CD14 rs2569190 (OR = 1.08; P = 0.036). There was significant multiplicative interaction between CARD8 and IL1B (P = 0.005), with the IL1B risk genotype amplifying the risk effect of CARD8. CONCLUSION: There is evidence for association of gout with functional variants in CARD8, IL1B and CD14. The gout-associated allele of IL1B increases expression of IL-1β - the multiplicative interaction with CARD8 would be consistent with a synergy of greater inflammasome activity (resulting from reduced CARD8) combined with higher levels of pre-IL-1β expression leading to increased production of mature IL-1β in gout.

Liberal alcohol legislation: does it amplify the effects among Swiss men of person-related risk factors on heavy alcohol use?

AIM: To estimate the statistical interactions between alcohol policy strength and the person-related risk factors of sensation-seeking, antisocial personality disorder and attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder related to heavy alcohol use. DESIGN: Cross-sectional survey. SETTING: Young Swiss men living within 21 jurisdictions across Switzerland. PARTICIPANTS: A total of 5701 Swiss men (mean age 20 years) participating in the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF). MEASUREMENTS: Outcome measures were alcohol use disorder (AUD) as defined in the DSM-5 and risky single-occasion drinking (RSOD). Independent variables were sensation-seeking, antisocial personality disorder (ASPD), attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) and an index of alcohol policy strength. FINDINGS: Alcohol policy strength was protective against RSOD [odds ratio (OR) = 0.91 (0.84-0.99)], while sensation-seeking and ASPD were risk factors for both RSOD [OR = 1.90 (1.77-2.04); OR = 1.69 (1.44-1.97)] and AUD [OR = 1.58 (1.47-1.71); OR = 2.69 (2.30-3.14)] and ADHD was a risk factor for AUD [OR = 1.08 (1.06-1.10)]. Significant interactions between alcohol policy strength and sensation-seeking were identified for RSOD [OR = 1.06 (1.01-1.12)] and AUD [OR = 1.06 (1.01-1.12)], as well as between alcohol policy strength and ASPD for both RSOD [OR = 1.17 (1.03-1.31)] and AUD [OR = 1.15 (1.02-1.29)]. These interactions indicated that the protective effects of alcohol policy strength on RSOD and AUD were lost in men with high levels of sensation-seeking or an ASPD. No interactions were detected between alcohol policy strength and ADHD. CONCLUSION: Stronger alcohol legislation protects against heavy alcohol use in young Swiss men, but this protective effect is lost in individuals with high levels of sensation-seeking or having an antisocial personality disorder.

Use of asthma medication during pregnancy and risk of specific congenital anomalies: A European case-malformed control study.

BACKGROUND: Pregnant women with asthma need to take medication during pregnancy. OBJECTIVE: We sought to identify whether there is an increased risk of specific congenital anomalies after exposure to antiasthma medication in the first trimester of pregnancy. METHODS: We performed a population-based case-malformed control study testing signals identified in a literature review. Odds ratios (ORs) of exposure to the main groups of asthma medication were calculated for each of the 10 signal anomalies compared with registrations with nonchromosomal, nonsignal anomalies as control registrations. In addition, exploratory analyses were done for each nonsignal anomaly. The data set included 76,249 registrations of congenital anomalies from 13 EUROmediCAT registries. RESULTS: Cleft palate (OR, 1.63; 95% CI, 1.05-2.52) and gastroschisis (OR, 1.89; 95% CI, 1.12-3.20) had significantly increased odds of exposure to first-trimester use of inhaled β2-agonists compared with nonchromosomal control registrations. Odds of exposure to salbutamol were similar. Nonsignificant ORs of exposure to inhaled β2-agonists were found for spina bifida, cleft lip, anal atresia, severe congenital heart defects in general, or tetralogy of Fallot. None of the 4 literature signals of exposure to inhaled steroids were confirmed (cleft palate, cleft lip, anal atresia, and hypospadias). Exploratory analyses found an association between renal dysplasia and exposure to the combination of long-acting β2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids (OR, 3.95; 95% CI, 1.99-7.85). CONCLUSIONS: The study confirmed increased odds of first-trimester exposure to inhaled β2-agonists for cleft palate and gastroschisis and found a potential new signal for renal dysplasia associated with combined long-acting β2-agonists and inhaled corticosteroids. Use of inhaled corticosteroids during the first trimester of pregnancy seems to be safe in relation to the risk for a range of specific major congenital anomalies.

Transition of young people with chronic conditions: a cross-sectional study of patient perceptions before and after transfer from pediatric to adult health care.

UNLABELLED: The aim of this study was to compare perceived barriers to and the most preferred age for successful transition to adult health care between young people with chronic disorders who had not yet transferred from pediatric to adult health care (pre-transfer) and those who had already transferred (post-transfer). In a cross-sectional study, we compared 283 pre-transfer with 89 post-transfer young people, using a 28-item questionnaire that focused on perceived barriers to transition and beliefs about the most preferred age to transfer. Feeling at ease with the pediatrician was the most important barrier to successful transition in both groups, but was rated significantly higher in the pre-transfer compared to the post-transfer group (OR = 2.03, 95 %CI 1.12-3.71). Anxiety and lack of information were the next most important barriers, rated equally highly by the two groups (OR = 0.67, 95 %CI 0.35-1.28 and OR = 0.71, 95 %CI 0.36-1.38, respectively). More than 80 % of the respondents in both groups reported that 16-19 years was the most preferred age to transfer; more than half of all the respondents reported 18-19 years and older as the most preferred age. CONCLUSION: Better transition planning through the provision of regular and more detailed information about adult health-care providers and the transition process could reduce anxiety and contribute to a more positive attitude to overcome perceived barriers to transition from young people's perspective. Young people's preferences about transferring to adult health care provide a challenge to those children's hospitals that transfer to adult health care at a younger age.

Modelling body mass index and endometrial cancer risk in a pooled-analysis of three case-control studies.

OBJECTIVE: To quantify the relation between body mass index (BMI) and endometrial cancer risk, and to describe the shape of such a relation. DESIGN: Pooled analysis of three hospital-based case-control studies. SETTING: Italy and Switzerland. POPULATION: A total of 1449 women with endometrial cancer and 3811 controls. METHODS: Multivariate odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were obtained from logistic regression models. The shape of the relation was determined using a class of flexible regression models. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE: The relation of BMI with endometrial cancer. RESULTS: Compared with women with BMI 18.5 to <25 kg/m(2) , the odds ratio was 5.73 (95% CI 4.28-7.68) for women with a BMI ≥35 kg/m(2) . The odds ratios were 1.10 (95% CI 1.09-1.12) and 1.63 (95% CI 1.52-1.75) respectively for an increment of BMI of 1 and 5 units. The relation was stronger in never-users of oral contraceptives (OR 3.35, 95% CI 2.78-4.03, for BMI ≥30 versus <25 kg/m(2) ) than in users (OR 1.22, 95% CI 0.56-2.67), and in women with diabetes (OR 8.10, 95% CI 4.10-16.01, for BMI ≥30 versus <25 kg/m(2) ) than in those without diabetes (OR 2.95, 95% CI 2.44-3.56). The relation was best fitted by a cubic model, although after the exclusion of the 5% upper and lower tails, it was best fitted by a linear model. CONCLUSIONS: The results of this study confirm a role of elevated BMI in the aetiology of endometrial cancer and suggest that the risk in obese women increases in a cubic nonlinear fashion. The relation was stronger in never-users of oral contraceptives and in women with diabetes. TWEETABLE ABSTRACT: Risk of endometrial cancer increases with elevated body weight in a cubic nonlinear fashion.

Adjuvant Fluorouracil, Leucovorin, and Oxaliplatin in Stage II to III Colon Cancer: Updated 10-Year Survival and Outcomes According to BRAF Mutation and Mismatch Repair Status of the MOSAIC Study.

PURPOSE: The MOSAIC (Multicenter International Study of Oxaliplatin/Fluorouracil/Leucovorin in the Adjuvant Treatment of Colon Cancer) study has demonstrated 3-year disease-free survival (DFS) and 6-year overall survival (OS) benefit of adjuvant oxaliplatin in stage II to III resected colon cancer. This update presents 10-year OS and OS and DFS by mismatch repair (MMR) status and BRAF mutation. METHODS: Survival actualization after 10-year follow-up was performed in 2,246 patients with resected stage II to III colon cancer. We assessed MMR status and BRAF mutation in 1,008 formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded specimens. RESULTS: After a median follow-up of 9.5 years, 10-year OS rates in the bolus/infusional fluorouracil plus leucovorin (LV5FU2) and LV5FU2 plus oxaliplatin (FOLFOX4) arms were 67.1% versus 71.7% (hazard ratio [HR], 0.85; P = .043) in the whole population, 79.5% versus 78.4% for stage II (HR, 1.00; P = .980), and 59.0% versus 67.1% for stage III (HR, 0.80; P = .016) disease. Ninety-five patients (9.4%) had MMR-deficient (dMMR) tumors, and 94 (10.4%) had BRAF mutation. BRAF mutation was not prognostic for OS (P = .965), but dMMR was an independent prognostic factor (HR, 2.02; 95% CI, 1.15 to 3.55; P = .014). HRs for DFS and OS benefit in the FOLFOX4 arm were 0.48 (95% CI, 0.20 to 1.12) and 0.41 (95% CI, 0.16 to 1.07), respectively, in patients with stage II to III dMMR and 0.50 (95% CI, 0.25 to 1.00) and 0.66 (95% CI, 0.31 to 1.42), respectively, in those with BRAF mutation. CONCLUSION: The OS benefit of oxaliplatin-based adjuvant chemotherapy, increasing over time and with the disease severity, was confirmed at 10 years in patients with stage II to III colon cancer. These updated results support the use of FOLFOX in patients with stage III disease, including those with dMMR or BRAF mutation.

Antifungal activity against planktonic and biofilm Candida albicans in an experimental model of foreign-body infection.

OBJECTIVES: The treatment of Candida implant-associated infections remains challenging. We investigated the antifungal activity against planktonic and biofilm Candida albicans in a foreign-body infection model. METHODS: Teflon cages were subcutaneously implanted in guinea pigs, infected with C. albicans (ATCC 90028). Animals were treated intraperitoneally 12 h after infection for 4 days once daily with saline, fluconazole (16 mg/kg), amphotericin B (2.5 mg/kg), caspofungin (2.5 mg/kg) or anidulafungin (20 mg/kg). Planktonic Candida was quantified, the clearance rate and cure rate determined. RESULTS: In untreated animals, planktonic Candida was cleared from cage fluid in 25% (infected with 4.5 × 10(3) CFU/cage), 8% (infected with 4.8 × 10(4) CFU/cage) and 0% (infected with 6.2 × 10(5) CFU/cage). Candida biofilm persisted on all explanted cages. Compared to untreated controls, caspofungin reduced the number of planktonic C. albicans to 0.22 and 0.0 CFU/ml, respectively, and anidulafungin to 0.11 and 0.13 CFU/ml, respectively. Fluconazole cured 2/12 cages (17%), amphotericin B and anidulafungin 1/12 cages (8%) and caspofungin 3/12 cages (25%). CONCLUSION: Echinocandins showed superior activity against planktonic C. albicans. Caspofungin showed the highest cure rate of C. albicans biofilm. However, no antifungal exceeded 25% cure rate, demonstrating the difficulty of eradicating Candida biofilms from implants.

Spinal Cord T-Cell Infiltration in the Rat Spared Nerve Injury Model: A Time Course Study.

The immune system is involved in the development of neuropathic pain. In particular, the infiltration of T-lymphocytes into the spinal cord following peripheral nerve injury has been described as a contributor to sensory hypersensitivity. We used the spared nerve injury (SNI) model of neuropathic pain in Sprague Dawley adult male rats to assess proliferation, and/or protein/gene expression levels for microglia (Iba1), T-lymphocytes (CD2) and cytotoxic T-lymphocytes (CD8). In the dorsal horn ipsilateral to SNI, Iba1 and BrdU stainings revealed microglial reactivity and proliferation, respectively, with different durations. Iba1 expression peaked at D4 and D7 at the mRNA and protein level, respectively, and was long-lasting. Proliferation occurred almost exclusively in Iba1 positive cells and peaked at D2. Gene expression observation by RT-qPCR array suggested that T-lymphocytes attracting chemokines were upregulated after SNI in rat spinal cord but only a few CD2/CD8 positive cells were found. A pronounced infiltration of CD2/CD8 positive T-cells was seen in the spinal cord injury (SCI) model used as a positive control for lymphocyte infiltration. Under these experimental conditions, we show early and long-lasting microglia reactivity in the spinal cord after SNI, but no lymphocyte infiltration was found.