Impact of model complexity on cross-temporal transferability in Maxent species distribution models: An assessment using paleobotanical data

Maximum entropy modeling (Maxent) is a widely used algorithm for predicting species distributions across space and time. Properly assessing the uncertainty in such predictions is non-trivial and requires validation with independent datasets. Notably, model complexity (number of model parameters) remains a major concern in relation to overfitting and, hence, transferability of Maxent models. An emerging approach is to validate the cross-temporal transferability of model predictions using paleoecological data. In this study, we assess the effect of model complexity on the performance of Maxent projections across time using two European plant species (Alnus giutinosa (L.) Gaertn. and Corylus avellana L) with an extensive late Quaternary fossil record in Spain as a study case. We fit 110 models with different levels of complexity under present time and tested model performance using AUC (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve) and AlCc (corrected Akaike Information Criterion) through the standard procedure of randomly partitioning current occurrence data. We then compared these results to an independent validation by projecting the models to mid-Holocene (6000 years before present) climatic conditions in Spain to assess their ability to predict fossil pollen presence-absence and abundance. We find that calibrating Maxent models with default settings result in the generation of overly complex models. While model performance increased with model complexity when predicting current distributions, it was higher with intermediate complexity when predicting mid-Holocene distributions. Hence, models of intermediate complexity resulted in the best trade-off to predict species distributions across time. Reliable temporal model transferability is especially relevant for forecasting species distributions under future climate change. Consequently, species-specific model tuning should be used to find the best modeling settings to control for complexity, notably with paleoecological data to independently validate model projections. For cross-temporal projections of species distributions for which paleoecological data is not available, models of intermediate complexity should be selected.

Internet-Based Brief Intervention to Prevent Unhealthy Alcohol Use among Young Men: A Randomized Controlled Trial.

Alcohol use is one of the leading modifiable morbidity and mortality risk factors among young adults. 2 parallel-group randomized controlled trial with follow-up at 1 and 6 months. Internet based study in a general population sample of young men with low-risk drinking, recruited between June 2012 and February 2013. Intervention: Internet-based brief alcohol primary prevention intervention (IBI). The IBI aims at preventing an increase in alcohol use: it consists of normative feedback, feedback on consequences, calorific value alcohol, computed blood alcohol concentration, indication that the reported alcohol use is associated with no or limited risks for health. Intervention group participants received the IBI. Control group (CG) participants completed only an assessment. Alcohol use (number of drinks per week), binge drinking prevalence. Analyses were conducted in 2014-2015. Of 4365 men invited to participate, 1633 did so; 896 reported low-risk drinking and were randomized (IBI: n = 451; CG: n = 445). At baseline, 1 and 6 months, the mean (SD) number of drinks/week was 2.4(2.2), 2.3(2.6), 2.5(3.0) for IBI, and 2.4(2.3), 2.8(3.7), 2.7(3.9) for CG. Binge drinking, absent at baseline, was reported by 14.4% (IBI) and 19.0% (CG) at 1 month and by 13.3% (IBI) and 13.0% (CG) at 6 months. At 1 month, beneficial intervention effects were observed on the number of drinks/week (p = 0.05). No significant differences were observed at 6 months. We found protective short term effects of a primary prevention IBI. Controlled-Trials.com ISRCTN55991918.

Molecular mechanism of a green-shifted, pH-dependent red fluorescent protein mKate variant.

Fluorescent proteins that can switch between distinct colors have contributed significantly to modern biomedical imaging technologies and molecular cell biology. Here we report the identification and biochemical analysis of a green-shifted red fluorescent protein variant GmKate, produced by the introduction of two mutations into mKate. Although the mutations decrease the overall brightness of the protein, GmKate is subject to pH-dependent, reversible green-to-red color conversion. At physiological pH, GmKate absorbs blue light (445 nm) and emits green fluorescence (525 nm). At pH above 9.0, GmKate absorbs 598 nm light and emits 646 nm, far-red fluorescence, similar to its sequence homolog mNeptune. Based on optical spectra and crystal structures of GmKate in its green and red states, the reversible color transition is attributed to the different protonation states of the cis-chromophore, an interpretation that was confirmed by quantum chemical calculations. Crystal structures reveal potential hydrogen bond networks around the chromophore that may facilitate the protonation switch, and indicate a molecular basis for the unusual bathochromic shift observed at high pH. This study provides mechanistic insights into the color tuning of mKate variants, which may aid the development of green-to-red color-convertible fluorescent sensors, and suggests GmKate as a prototype of genetically encoded pH sensors for biological studies.

Scoring criteria for portable monitor recordings: a comparison of four hypopnoea definitions in a population-based cohort.

RATIONALE: Limited-channel portable monitors (PMs) are increasingly used as an alternative to polysomnography (PSG) for the diagnosis of obstructive sleep apnoea (OSA). However, recommendations for the scoring of PM recordings are still lacking. Pulse-wave amplitude (PWA) drops, considered as surrogates for EEG arousals, may increase the detection sensitivity for respiratory events in PM recordings. OBJECTIVES: To investigate the performance of four different hypopnoea scoring criteria, using 3% or 4% oxygen desaturation levels, including or not PWA drops as surrogates for EEG arousals, and to determine the impact of measured versus reported sleep time on OSA diagnosis. METHODS: Subjects drawn from a population-based cohort underwent a complete home PSG. The PSG recordings were scored using the 2012 American Academy of Sleep Medicine criteria to determine the apnoea-hypopnoea index (AHI). Recordings were then rescored using only parameters available on type 3 PM devices according to different hypopnoea criteria and patients-reported sleep duration to determine the 'portable monitor AHIs' (PM-AHIs). MAIN RESULTS: 312 subjects were included. Overall, PM-AHIs showed a good concordance with the PSG-based AHI although it tended to slightly underestimate it. The PM-AHI using 3% desaturation without PWA drops showed the best diagnostic accuracy for AHI thresholds of ≥5/h and ≥15/h (correctly classifying 94.55% and 93.27% of subjects, respectively, vs 80.13% and 87.50% with PWA drops). There was a significant but modest correlation between PWA drops and EEG arousals (r=0.20, p=0.0004). CONCLUSION: Interpretation of PM recordings using hypopnoea criteria which include 3% desaturation without PWA drops as EEG arousal surrogate showed the best diagnosis accuracy compared with full PSG.

Horaires de messes et promesses pastorales. Une enquête sociologique sur la pratique religieuse dans le décanat de Fribourg (Suisse)

Ce papier fournit et discute les résultats d'une grande enquête quantitative sur la pratique religieuse en ville de Fribourg. L'enquête a pu fournir de manière quantifiée les paramètres d'une situation, certes connue : baisse de la pratique, augmentation de la participation des migrants, vieillissement des fidèles et des prêtres. L'enquête aura aussi permis d'observer que certains styles de messes sont préférés à d'autres, que le sentiment d'appartenance est affecté par les réorganisations. Ces paramètres permettent de rendre visible une « révolution silencieuse » du catholicisme, pris dans un étau entre un certain conservatisme des fidèles - qui n'aiment pas que les choses changent - et une hiérarchie catholique - qui a ses lignes de conduites pastorales et éthiques -, que retiennent, chacun à leur façon, une partie des fidèles dans une pratique faible ou peu fréquente.

Erreurs innées du métabolisme: transition enfant-adulte [Inborn errors of metabolism: transition from childhood to adulthood].

Les erreurs innées du métabolisme (EIM) sont dues à des mutations de gènes codant pour des enzymes du métabolisme et sont classées selon trois grands groupes de maladies: 1) intoxications; 2) déficit énergétique et 3) déficit de synthèse ou catabolisme des maladies complexes. Le progrès thérapeutique des vingt dernières années a permis d'améliorer le pronostic des enfants atteints d'EIM. Ces enfants grandissent et doivent être pris en charge à l'adolescence et à l'âge adulte par des équipes spécialisées. Cette médecine métabolique pour adultes est une discipline relativement nouvelle avec une information limitée chez l'adulte. Les recommandations pédiatriques sont extrapolées à la prise en charge des adultes tout en intégrant les différentes étapes de vie (indépendance sociale, grossesse, vieillissement et éventuelles complications tardives). Inborn errors of metabolism (IEM) are due to mutations of genes coding for enzymes of intermediary metabolism and are classified into 3 broad categories: 1) intoxication, 2) energy defect and 3) cellular organelles synthesis or catabolism defect. Improvements of therapy over these last 20 years has improved prognosis of children with IEM. These children grow up and should have their transition to specialized adult care. Adult patients with IEM are a relatively new phenomenon with currently only limited knowledge. Extrapolated pediatric guidelines are applied to the adult population taking into account adult life stages (social independence, pregnancy, aging process and potential long-term complications).

Dual-Energy CT: Basic Principles, Technical Approaches, and Applications in Musculoskeletal Imaging (Part 2).

In recent years, technological advances have allowed manufacturers to implement dual-energy computed tomography (DECT) on clinical scanners. With its unique ability to differentiate basis materials by their atomic number, DECT has opened new perspectives in imaging. DECT has been successfully used in musculoskeletal imaging with applications ranging from detection, characterization, and quantification of crystal and iron deposits, to simulation of noncalcium (improving the visualization of bone marrow lesions) or noniodine images. Furthermore, the data acquired with DECT can be postprocessed to generate monoenergetic images of varying kiloelectron volts, providing new methods for image contrast optimization as well as metal artifact reduction. The first part of this article reviews the basic principles and technical aspects of DECT including radiation dose considerations. The second part focuses on applications of DECT to musculoskeletal imaging including gout and other crystal-induced arthropathies, virtual noncalcium images for the study of bone marrow lesions, the study of collagenous structures, applications in computed tomography arthrography, as well as the detection of hemosiderin and metal particles.

Are open mandibular fractures still an emergency?

INTRODUCTION: Early surgical management is often advocated for fractures of the tooth-bearing portion of the mandible. A 6-hour delay has been mentioned for the fixation of these fractures. Our aim was to bring this paradigm into question. METHODS: All patients referred to our department from September 2012 to May 2014 for fractures of the tooth-bearing portion of the mandible were retrospectively included. For each patient, age, gender, aetiology of the fracture, and characteristics of the fractures were recorded. Tobacco and/or alcohol addictions, diabetes and mandibular dental condition were taken into account. We also noticed the preoperative delay and the occurrence of complications such as: haematoma, infection, wound dehiscence, osteosynthesis failure and pseudarthrosis. RESULTS: Among the 47 patients referred, 36 were treated with a delay of more than 6hours (76.6%). In 88.8% of the cases, the reason for this delay was unavoidable. The mean delay time from trauma to surgery was 52hours (range: 7-312). Forty-nine percent of the patients had comorbidities. Complications occurred in 6 patients leading to an overall complication rate of 16.67%. A statistically significant higher complication rate was observed among smokers (P=0.006). No statistical relationship was found between the delay and the occurrence of complications (P=0.994). This study suggests that fractures of the tooth-bearing portion of the mandible should no longer be considered as an emergency that must be treated within a 6-hour delay.

Procedural Results and Clinical Outcomes of Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation in Switzerland: An Observational Cohort Study of Sapien 3 Versus Sapien XT Transcatheter Heart Valves.

BACKGROUND: New generation transcatheter heart valves (THV) may improve clinical outcomes of transcatheter aortic valve implantation. METHODS AND RESULTS: In a nationwide, prospective, multicenter cohort study (Swiss Transcatheter Aortic Valve Implantation Registry, NCT01368250), outcomes of consecutive transfemoral transcatheter aortic valve implantation patients treated with the Sapien 3 THV (S3) versus the Sapien XT THV (XT) were investigated. An overall of 153 consecutive S3 patients were compared with 445 consecutive XT patients. Postprocedural mean transprosthetic gradient (6.5±3.0 versus 7.8±6.3 mm Hg, P=0.17) did not differ between S3 and XT patients, respectively. The rate of more than mild paravalvular regurgitation (1.3% versus 5.3%, P=0.04) and of vascular (5.3% versus 16.9%, P<0.01) complications were significantly lower in S3 patients. A higher rate of new permanent pacemaker implantations was observed in patients receiving the S3 valve (17.0% versus 11.0%, P=0.01). There were no significant differences for disabling stroke (S3 1.3% versus XT 3.1%, P=0.29) and all-cause mortality (S3 3.3% versus XT 4.5%, P=0.27). CONCLUSIONS: The use of the new generation S3 balloon-expandable THV reduced the risk of more than mild paravalvular regurgitation and vascular complications but was associated with an increased permanent pacemaker rate compared with the XT. Transcatheter aortic valve implantation using the newest generation balloon-expandable THV is associated with a low risk of stroke and favorable clinical outcomes. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION: URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01368250.

1.2

Le projet Lausanne cohorte 65+ a été conçu en 2003, dans le contexte d'une ville suisse francophone de 125 000 habitants située au centre d'une agglomération lausannoise qui en comptait alors quelque 312 000 et d'un canton de Vaud peuplé de 641 000 résidents. La population étudiée dans ce projet, bien que géographiquement très ciblée, était alors confrontée à des questions sanitaires assez banales dans une Europe exposée à un vieillissement démographique en accélération. Elles étaient, pour l'essentiel, centrées sur la prise en charge de la dépendance fonctionnelle liée au grand âge.