Italy's Path to Very Low Fertility : The Adequacy of Economic and Second Demographic Transition Theories

The deep drop of the fertility rate in Italy to among the lowest in the world challenges contemporary theories of childbearing and family building. Among high-income countries, Italy was presumed to have characteristics of family values and female labor force participation that would favor higher fertility than its European neighbors to the north. We test competing economic and cultural explanations, drawing on new nationally representative, longitudinal data to examine first union, first birth, and second birth. Our event history analysis finds some support for economic determinants of family formation and fertility, but the clear importance of regional differences and of secularization suggests that such an explanation is at best incomplete and that cultural and ideational factors must be considered.

Aerodynamic drag modeling of alpine skiers performing giant slalom turns.

PURPOSE: Aerodynamic drag plays an important role in performance for athletes practicing sports that involve high-velocity motions. In giant slalom, the skier is continuously changing his/her body posture, and this affects the energy dissipated in aerodynamic drag. It is therefore important to quantify this energy to understand the dynamic behavior of the skier. The aims of this study were to model the aerodynamic drag of alpine skiers in giant slalom simulated conditions and to apply these models in a field experiment to estimate energy dissipated through aerodynamic drag. METHODS: The aerodynamic characteristics of 15 recreational male and female skiers were measured in a wind tunnel while holding nine different skiing-specific postures. The drag and the frontal area were recorded simultaneously for each posture. Four generalized and two individualized models of the drag coefficient were built, using different sets of parameters. These models were subsequently applied in a field study designed to compare the aerodynamic energy losses between a dynamic and a compact skiing technique. RESULTS: The generalized models estimated aerodynamic drag with an accuracy of between 11.00% and 14.28%, and the individualized models estimated aerodynamic drag with an accuracy between 4.52% and 5.30%. The individualized model used for the field study showed that using a dynamic technique led to 10% more aerodynamic drag energy loss than using a compact technique. DISCUSSION: The individualized models were capable of discriminating different techniques performed by advanced skiers and seemed more accurate than the generalized models. The models presented here offer a simple yet accurate method to estimate the aerodynamic drag acting upon alpine skiers while rapidly moving through the range of positions typical to turning technique.

Placental transfer of pyrimethamine studied in an ex vivo placental perfusion model.

Pyrimethamine is used as and anti-infectious agent because of its antifolate properties. Its action is synergistic with that of dapsone and sulfamides on Toxoplasma gondii. The goal of the present study was to evaluate the placental transfer of pyrimethamine in an ex vivo model of perfused human placental cotyledon at term. Human placentas were perfused according to the slightly modified method of Schneider. The pyrimethamine fetal transfer rate was approximately 30%, while cotyledon clearance was about 1.8 ml/min. The placental transfer of pyrimethamine seems to be independent of the maternal concentrations of pyrimethamine, suggesting passive diffusion mechanisms or a nonsaturable active transport at the tested concentrations.

Stoneley wave modeling in heterogeneous porous media with viscous pore fluids

We implemented Biot-type porous wave equations in a pseudo-spectral numerical modeling algorithm for the simulation of Stoneley waves in porous media. Fourier and Chebyshev methods are used to compute the spatial derivatives along the horizontal and vertical directions, respectively. To prevent from overly short time steps due to the small grid spacing at the top and bottom of the model as a consequence of the Chebyshev operator, the mesh is stretched in the vertical direction. As a large benefit, the Chebyshev operator allows for an explicit treatment of interfaces. Boundary conditions can be implemented with a characteristics approach. The characteristic variables are evaluated at zero viscosity. We use this approach to model seismic wave propagation at the interface between a fluid and a porous medium. Each medium is represented by a different mesh and the two meshes are connected through the above described characteristics domain-decomposition method. We show an experiment for sealed pore boundary conditions, where we first compare the numerical solution to an analytical solution. We then show the influence of heterogeneity and viscosity of the pore fluid on the propagation of the Stoneley wave and surface waves in general.

GeoKernels: Modeling of Spatial Data on GeoManifolds

This paper presents a review of methodology for semi-supervised modeling with kernel methods, when the manifold assumption is guaranteed to be satisfied. It concerns environmental data modeling on natural manifolds, such as complex topographies of the mountainous regions, where environmental processes are highly influenced by the relief. These relations, possibly regionalized and nonlinear, can be modeled from data with machine learning using the digital elevation models in semi-supervised kernel methods. The range of the tools and methodological issues discussed in the study includes feature selection and semisupervised Support Vector algorithms. The real case study devoted to data-driven modeling of meteorological fields illustrates the discussed approach.

Viral-mediated overexpression of mutant huntingtin to model HD in various species.

Huntington's disease (HD) is an autosomal dominant neurodegenerative disorder caused by an expansion of CAG repeats in the huntingtin (Htt) gene. Despite intensive efforts devoted to investigating the mechanisms of its pathogenesis, effective treatments for this devastating disease remain unavailable. The lack of suitable models recapitulating the entire spectrum of the degenerative process has severely hindered the identification and validation of therapeutic strategies. The discovery that the degeneration in HD is caused by a mutation in a single gene has offered new opportunities to develop experimental models of HD, ranging from in vitro models to transgenic primates. However, recent advances in viral-vector technology provide promising alternatives based on the direct transfer of genes to selected sub-regions of the brain. Rodent studies have shown that overexpression of mutant human Htt in the striatum using adeno-associated virus or lentivirus vectors induces progressive neurodegeneration, which resembles that seen in HD. This article highlights progress made in modeling HD using viral vector gene transfer. We describe data obtained with of this highly flexible approach for the targeted overexpression of a disease-causing gene. The ability to deliver mutant Htt to specific tissues has opened pathological processes to experimental analysis and allowed targeted therapeutic development in rodent and primate pre-clinical models.

Modeling of the TCR-MHC-peptide complex.

The methodology for generating a homology model of the T1 TCR-PbCS-K(d) class I major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I complex is presented. The resulting model provides a qualitative explanation of the effect of over 50 different mutations in the region of the complementarity determining region (CDR) loops of the T cell receptor (TCR), the peptide and the MHC's alpha(1)/alpha(2) helices. The peptide is modified by an azido benzoic acid photoreactive group, which is part of the epitope recognized by the TCR. The construction of the model makes use of closely related homologs (the A6 TCR-Tax-HLA A2 complex, the 2C TCR, the 14.3.d TCR Vbeta chain, the 1934.4 TCR Valpha chain, and the H-2 K(b)-ovalbumine peptide), ab initio sampling of CDR loops conformations and experimental data to select from the set of possibilities. The model shows a complex arrangement of the CDR3alpha, CDR1beta, CDR2beta and CDR3beta loops that leads to the highly specific recognition of the photoreactive group. The protocol can be applied systematically to a series of related sequences, permitting the analysis at the structural level of the large TCR repertoire specific for a given peptide-MHC complex.

Making sense of AMPA receptor trafficking by modeling molecular mechanisms of synaptic plasticity.

Synaptic plasticity involves a complex molecular machinery with various protein interactions but it is not yet clear how its components give rise to the different aspects of synaptic plasticity. Here we ask whether it is possible to mathematically model synaptic plasticity by making use of known substances only. We present a model of a multistable biochemical reaction system and use it to simulate the plasticity of synaptic transmission in long-term potentiation (LTP) or long-term depression (LTD) after repeated excitation of the synapse. According to our model, we can distinguish between two phases: first, a "viscosity" phase after the first excitation, the effects of which like the activation of NMDA receptors and CaMKII fade out in the absence of further excitations. Second, a "plasticity" phase actuated by an identical subsequent excitation that follows after a short time interval and causes the temporarily altered concentrations of AMPA subunits in the postsynaptic membrane to be stabilized. We show that positive feedback is the crucial element in the core chemical reaction, i.e. the activation of the short-tail AMPA subunit by NEM-sensitive factor, which allows generating multiple stable equilibria. Three stable equilibria are related to LTP, LTD and a third unfixed state called ACTIVE. Our mathematical approach shows that modeling synaptic multistability is possible by making use of known substances like NMDA and AMPA receptors, NEM-sensitive factor, glutamate, CaMKII and brain-derived neurotrophic factor. Furthermore, we could show that the heteromeric combination of short- and long-tail AMPA receptor subunits fulfills the function of a memory tag.

Simultaneous determination of antidementia drugs in human plasma: Procedure transfer from HPLC-MS to UPLC-MS/MS.

A previously developed high performance liquid chromatography mass spectrometry (HPLC-MS) procedure for the simultaneous determination of antidementia drugs, including donepezil, galantamine, memantine, rivastigmine and its metabolite NAP 226-90, was transferred to an ultra performance liquid chromatography system coupled to a tandem mass spectrometer (UPLC-MS/MS). The drugs and their internal standards ([(2)H(7)]-donepezil, [(13)C,(2)H(3)]-galantamine, [(13)C(2),(2)H(6)]-memantine, [(2)H(6)]-rivastigmine) were extracted from 250μL human plasma by protein precipitation with acetonitrile. Chromatographic separation was achieved on a reverse phase column (BEH C18 2.1mm×50mm; 1.7μm) with a gradient elution of an ammonium acetate buffer at pH 9.3 and acetonitrile at a flow rate of 0.4mL/min and an overall run time of 4.5min. The analytes were detected on a tandem quadrupole mass spectrometer operated in positive electrospray ionization mode, and quantification was performed using multiple reaction monitoring. The method was validated according to the recommendations of international guidelines over a calibration range of 1-300ng/mL for donepezil, galantamine and memantine, and 0.2-50ng/mL for rivastimgine and NAP 226-90. The trueness (86-108%), repeatability (0.8-8.3%), intermediate precision (2.3-10.9%) and selectivity of the method were found to be satisfactory. Matrix effects variability was inferior to 15% for the analytes and inferior to 5% after correction by internal standards. A method comparison was performed with patients' samples showing similar results between the HPLC-MS and UPLC-MS/MS procedures. Thus, this validated UPLC-MS/MS method allows to reduce the required amount of plasma, to use a simplified sample preparation, and to obtain a higher sensitivity and specificity with a much shortened run-time.

Modeling the forensic two-trace problem with Bayesian networks

The forensic two-trace problem is a perplexing inference problem introduced by Evett (J Forensic Sci Soc 27:375-381, 1987). Different possible ways of wording the competing pair of propositions (i.e., one proposition advanced by the prosecution and one proposition advanced by the defence) led to different quantifications of the value of the evidence (Meester and Sjerps in Biometrics 59:727-732, 2003). Here, we re-examine this scenario with the aim of clarifying the interrelationships that exist between the different solutions, and in this way, produce a global vision of the problem. We propose to investigate the different expressions for evaluating the value of the evidence by using a graphical approach, i.e. Bayesian networks, to model the rationale behind each of the proposed solutions and the assumptions made on the unknown parameters in this problem.

Relative and absolute reliability of the clinical version of the Narrow Path Walking Test (NPWT) under single and dual task conditions.

Decline in gait stability has been associated with increased fall risk in older adults. Reliable and clinically feasible methods of gait instability assessment are needed. This study evaluated the relative and absolute reliability and concurrent validity of the testing procedure of the clinical version of the Narrow Path Walking Test (NPWT) under single task (ST) and dual task (DT) conditions. Thirty independent community-dwelling older adults (65-87 years) were tested twice. Participants were instructed to walk within the 6-m narrow path without stepping out. Trial time, number of steps, trial velocity, number of step errors, and number of cognitive task errors were determined. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were calculated as indices of agreement, and a graphic approach called "mountain plot" was applied to help interpret the direction and magnitude of disagreements between testing procedures. Smallest detectable change and smallest real difference (SRD) were computed to determine clinically relevant improvement at group and individual levels, respectively. Concurrent validity was assessed using Performance Oriented Mobility Assessment Tool (POMA) and the Short Physical Performance Battery (SPPB). Test-retest agreement (ICC1,2) varied from 0.77 to 0.92 in ST and from 0.78 to 0.92 in DT conditions, with no apparent systematic differences between testing procedures demonstrated by the mountain plot graphs. Smallest detectable change and smallest real change were small for motor task performance and larger for cognitive errors. Significant correlations were observed for trial velocity and trial time with POMA and SPPB. The present results indicate that the NPWT testing procedure is highly reliable and reproducible.

The TetR-type MfsR protein of the integrative and conjugative element (ICE) ICEclc controls both a putative efflux system and initiation of ICE transfer.

Integrative and conjugating elements (ICE) are self-transferable DNAs widely present in bacterial genomes, which often carry a variety of auxiliary genes of potential adaptive benefit. One of the model ICE is ICEclc, an element originally found in Pseudomonas knackmussii B13 and known for its propensity to provide its host with the capacity to metabolize chlorocatechols and 2-aminophenol. In this work, we studied the mechanism and target of regulation of MfsR, a TetR-type repressor previously found to exert global control on ICEclc horizontal transfer. By using a combination of ICEclc mutant and transcriptome analysis, gene reporter fusions, and DNA binding assays, we found that MfsR is a repressor of both its own expression and that of a gene cluster putatively coding for a major facilitator superfamily efflux system on ICEclc (named mfsABC). Phylogenetic analysis suggests that mfsR was originally located immediately adjacent to the efflux pump genes but became displaced from its original cis target DNA by a gene insertion. This resulted in divergence of the original bidirectional promoters into two separated individual regulatory units. Deletion of mfsABC did not result in a strong phenotype, and despite screening a large number of compounds and conditions, we were unable to define the precise current function or target of the putative efflux pump. Our data reconstruct how the separation of an ancestor mfsR-mfsABC system led to global control of ICEclc transfer by MfsR.

Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals in contact aureoles

THESIS ABSTRACT Nucleation and growth of metamorphic minerals are the consequence of changing P-T-X-conditions. The thesis presented here focuses on processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments using a combination of geochemical analytics (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data, and numerical models. It is shown, that a combination of textural modeling and stable isotope analysis allows a distinction between several possible reaction paths for olivine growth in a siliceous dolomite contact aureole. It is suggested that olivine forms directly from dolomite and quartz. The formation of olivine from this metastable reaction implies metamorphic crystallization far from equilibrium. As a major consequence, the spatial distribution of metamorphic mineral assemblages in a contact aureole cannot be interpreted as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock specimen, because each rock undergoes a different reaction path, depending on temperature, heating rate, and fluid-infiltration rate. A detailed calcite-dolomite thermometry study was initiated on multiple scales ranging from aureole scale to the size of individual crystals. Quantitative forward models were developed to evaluate the effect of growth zoning, volume diffusion and the formation of submicroscopic exsolution lamellae (<1 µm) on the measured Mg-distribution in individual calcite crystals and compare the modeling results to field data. This study concludes that Mg-distributions in calcite grains of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole are the consequence of rapid crystal growth in combination with diffusion and exsolution. The crystallization history of a rock is recorded in the chemical composition, the size and the distribution of its minerals. Near the Cima Uzza summit, located in the southern Adamello massif (Italy), contact metamorphic brucite bearing dolomite marbles are exposed as xenoliths surrounded by mafic intrusive rocks. Brucite is formed retrograde pseudomorphing spherical periclase crystals. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) of brucite pseudomorphs are presented for two profiles and combined with geochemistry data and petrological information. Textural analyses are combined with geochemistry data in a qualitative model that describes the formation periclase. As a major outcome, this expands the potential use of CSD's to systems of mineral formation driven by fluid-infiltration. RESUME DE LA THESE La nucléation et la croissance des minéraux métamorphiques sont la conséquence de changements des conditions de pression, température et composition chimique du système (PT-X). Cette thèse s'intéresse aux processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux au cours d'un épisode de métamorphisme de contact, en utilisant la géochimie analytique (composition chimique, isotopique et en éléments traces), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique. Il est montré que la combinaison d'un modèle textural avec des analyses en isotopes stables permet de distinguer plusieurs chemins de réactions possibles conduisant à la croissance de l'olivine dans une auréole de contact riche en Silice et dolomite. Il est suggéré que l'olivine se forme directement à partir de la dolomie et du quartz. Cette réaction métastable de formation de l'olivine implique une cristallisation métamorphique loin de l'équilibre. La principale conséquence est que la distribution spatiale des assemblages de minéraux métamorphiques dans une auréole de contact ne peut pas être considérée comme un témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un type de roche donné, puisque chaque type de roche suit différents chemins de réactions, en fonction de la température, la vitesse de réchauffement et le taux d'infiltration du fluide. Une étude thermométrique calcite-dolomite détaillée a été réalisée à diverses échelles, depuis l'échelle de l'auréole de contact jusqu'à l'échelle du cristal. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont été développés pour évaluer l'effet des zonations de croissance, de la diffusion volumique et de la formation de lamelles d'exsolution submicroscopiques (<1µm) sur la distribution du magnésium mesuré dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats de ce modèle ont été comparés ä des échantillons naturels. Cette étude montre que la distribution du Mg dans les grains de calcite de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA) résulte d'une croissance cristalline rapide, associée aux processus de diffusion et d'exsolution. L'histoire de cristallisation d'une roche est enregistrée dans la composition chimique, la taille et la distribution de ses minéraux. Près du sommet Cima Uzza situé au sud du massif d'Adamello (Italie), des marbres dolomitiques à brucite du métamorphisme de contact forment des xénolithes dans une intrusion mafique. La brucite constitue des pseudomorphes rétrogrades du périclase. Les distributions de taille des cristaux (CSD) des pseudomorphes de brucite sont présentées pour deux profiles et sont combinées aux données géochimiques et pétrologiques. Les analyses textorales sont combinées aux données géochimiques dans un modèle qualitatif qui décrit la formation du périclase. Ceci élargit l'utilisation potentielle de la C5D aux systèmes de formation de minéraux controlés par les infiltrations fluides. THESIS ABSTRACT (GENERAL PUBLIC) Rock textures are essentially the result of a complex interaction of nucleation, growth and deformation as a function of changing physical conditions such as pressure and temperature. Igneous and metamorphic textures are especially attractive to study the different mechanisms of texture formation since most of the parameters like pressure-temperature-paths are quite well known for a variety of geological settings. The fact that textures are supposed to record the crystallization history of a rock traditionally allowed them to be used for geothermobarometry or dating. During the last decades the focus of metamorphic petrology changed from a static point of view, i.e. the representation of a texture as one single point in the petrogenetic grid towards a more dynamic view, where multiple metamorphic processes govern the texture formation, including non-equilibrium processes. This thesis tries to advance our understanding on the processes governing nucleation and growth of minerals in contact metamorphic environments and their dynamic interplay by using a combination of geochemical analyses (chemical-, isotope-, and trace element composition), statistical treatments of spatial data and numerical models. In a first part the thesis describes the formation of metamorphic olivine porphyroblast in the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole (USA). It is shown that not the commonly assumed succession of equilibrium reactions along a T-t-path formed the textures present in the rocks today, but rather the presence of a meta-stable reaction is responsible for forming the olivine porphyroblast. Consequently, the spatial distribution of metamorphic minerals within a contact aureole can no longer be regarded as a proxy for the temporal evolution of a single rock sample. Metamorphic peak temperatures for samples of the Ubehebe Peak contact aureole were determined using calcite-dolomite. This geothermometer is based on the temperature-dependent exchange of Mg between calcite and dolomite. The purpose of the second part of this thesis was to explain the interfering systematic scatter of measured Mg-content on different scales and thus to clarify the interpretation of metamorphic temperatures recorded in carbonates. Numerical quantitative forward models are used to evaluate the effect of several processes on the distribution of magnesium in individual calcite crystals and the modeling results were then compared to measured field. Information about the crystallization history is not only recorded in the chemical composition of grains, like isotope composition or mineral zoning. Crystal size distributions (CSD's) provide essential information about the complex interaction of nucleation and growth of minerals. CSD's of brucite pseudomorphs formed retrograde after periclase of the southern Adamello massif (Italy) are presented. A combination of the textural 3D-information with geochemistry data is then used to evaluate reaction kinetics and to constrain the actual reaction mechanism for the formation of periclase. The reaction is shown to be the consequence of the infiltration of a limited amount of a fluid phase at high temperatures. The composition of this fluid phase is in large disequilibrium with the rest of the rock resulting in very fast reaction rates. RESUME DE LA THESE POUR LE GRAND PUBLIC: La texture d'une roche résulte de l'interaction complexe entre les processus de nucléation, croissance et déformation, en fonction des variations de conditions physiques telles que la pression et la température. Les textures ignées et métamorphiques présentent un intérêt particulier pour l'étude des différents mécanismes à l'origine de ces textures, puisque la plupart des paramètres comme les chemin pression-température sont relativement bien contraints dans la plupart des environnements géologiques. Le fait que les textures soient supposées enregistrer l'histoire de cristallisation des roches permet leur utilisation pour la datation et la géothermobarométrie. Durant les dernières décennies, la recherche en pétrologie métamorphique a évolué depuis une visualisation statique, c'est-à-dire qu'une texture donnée correspondait à un point unique de la grille pétrogénétique, jusqu'à une visualisation plus dynamique, où les multiples processus métamorphiques qui gouvernent 1a formation d'une texture incluent des processus hors équilibre. Cette thèse a pour but d'améliorer les connaissances actuelles sur les processus gouvernant la nucléation et la croissance des minéraux lors d'épisodes de métamorphisme de contact et l'interaction dynamique existant entre nucléation et croissance. Pour cela, les analyses géochimiques (compositions chimiques en éléments majeurs et traces et composition isotopique), le traitement statistique des données spatiales et la modélisation numérique ont été combinés. Dans la première partie, cette thèse décrit la formation de porphyroblastes d'olivine métamorphique dans l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak (USA). Il est montré que la succession généralement admise des réactions d'équilibre le long d'un chemin T-t ne peut pas expliquer les textures présentes dans les roches aujourd'hui. Cette thèse montre qu'il s'agirait plutôt d'une réaction métastable qui soit responsable de la formation des porphyroblastes d'olivine. En conséquence, la distribution spatiale des minéraux métamorphiques dans l'auréole de contact ne peut plus être interprétée comme le témoin de l'évolution temporelle d'un échantillon unique de roche. Les pics de température des échantillons de l'auréole de contact de l'Ubehebe Peak ont été déterminés grâce au géothermomètre calcite-dolomite. Celui-ci est basé sur l'échange du magnésium entre la calcite et la dolomite, qui est fonction de la température. Le but de la deuxième partie de cette thèse est d'expliquer la dispersion systématique de la composition en magnésium à différentes échelles, et ainsi d'améliorer l'interprétation des températures du métamorphisme enregistrées dans les carbonates. Des modèles numériques quantitatifs ont permis d'évaluer le rôle de différents processus sur la distribution du magnésium dans des cristaux de calcite individuels. Les résultats des modèles ont été comparés aux échantillons naturels. La composition chimique des grains, comme la composition isotopique ou la zonation minérale, n'est pas le seul témoin de l'histoire de la cristallisation. La distribution de la taille des cristaux (CSD) fournit des informations essentielles sur les interactions entre nucléation et croissance des minéraux. La CSD des pseudomorphes de brucite retrograde formés après le périclase dans le sud du massif Adamello (Italie) est présentée dans la troisième partie. La combinaison entre les données textorales en trois dimensions et les données géochimiques a permis d'évaluer les cinétiques de réaction et de contraindre les mécanismes conduisant à la formation du périclase. Cette réaction est présentée comme étant la conséquence de l'infiltration d'une quantité limitée d'une phase fluide à haute température. La composition de cette phase fluide est en grand déséquilibre avec le reste de la roche, ce qui permet des cinétiques de réactions très rapides.