Scaling behavior of random knots.

Using numerical simulations we investigate how overall dimensions of random knots scale with their length. We demonstrate that when closed non-self-avoiding random trajectories are divided into groups consisting of individual knot types, then each such group shows the scaling exponent of approximately 0.588 that is typical for self-avoiding walks. However, when all generated knots are grouped together, their scaling exponent becomes equal to 0.5 (as in non-self-avoiding random walks). We explain here this apparent paradox. We introduce the notion of the equilibrium length of individual types of knots and show its correlation with the length of ideal geometric representations of knots. We also demonstrate that overall dimensions of random knots with a given chain length follow the same order as dimensions of ideal geometric representations of knots.

La fonction publique en Suisse : analyse géopolitique d'un fédéralisme à géométrie variable

Bien que présenté comme un modèle de stabilité, le fédéralisme est constamment remis en question. Le but de l'article est de présenter quelques-unes de ses caractéristiques lues à travers les effectifs de la fonction publique en Suisse. Pour ce faire, nous distinguerons quatre types d'employeurs : Confédération, cantons, communes et corporations de droit public, lesquels représentent 10,5 % du total des actifs en Suisse. Nous analyserons la densité administrative, la variation des emplois et le degré de décentralisation selon la culture, le territoire et la religion. Il ressort que la fonction publique intermédiaire, c'est-à-dire les cantons, joue le premier rôle avec ses 140'000 emplois en équivalents plein temps (EPT) sur un total de 328'000, en hausse de 10,3 % par rapport à 2001. Les communes comptent 38 % des agents publics (+3,6 % par rapport à 2001), loin devant la Confédération, 11 % du total (en perte de vitesse : -1,2 %) et les corporations de droit public, 9 % du total (+14,5 %). Le taux d'administration est plus élevé dans la partie francophone que dans la partie germanophone, ainsi que dans les centres économiques et les zones frontières. Les écarts entre les cantons peuvent varier du simple au triple. En fait, deux modèles politico-administratifs transparaissent : le premier « cantonaliste » et davantage étatiste dans la partie latine, l'autre « communaliste » et décentralisé, dominant dans la partie germanophone. Le quotient de décentralisation administrative montre de grandes différences entre l'est et l'ouest, qui s'estompent toutefois avec la modernisation des institutions et le repositionnement de la Suisse face à l'Europe.

Delay-sensitive and delay-insensitive deconvolution perfusion-CT: similar ischemic core and penumbra volumes if appropriate threshold selected for each.

INTRODUCTION: Perfusion-CT (PCT) processing involves deconvolution, a mathematical operation that computes the perfusion parameters from the PCT time density curves and an arterial curve. Delay-sensitive deconvolution does not correct for arrival delay of contrast, whereas delay-insensitive deconvolution does. The goal of this study was to compare delay-sensitive and delay-insensitive deconvolution PCT in terms of delineation of the ischemic core and penumbra. METHODS: We retrospectively identified 100 patients with acute ischemic stroke who underwent admission PCT and CT angiography (CTA), a follow-up vascular study to determine recanalization status, and a follow-up noncontrast head CT (NCT) or MRI to calculate final infarct volume. PCT datasets were processed twice, once using delay-sensitive deconvolution and once using delay-insensitive deconvolution. Regions of interest (ROIs) were drawn, and cerebral blood flow (CBF), cerebral blood volume (CBV), and mean transit time (MTT) in these ROIs were recorded and compared. Volume and geographic distribution of ischemic core and penumbra using both deconvolution methods were also recorded and compared. RESULTS: MTT and CBF values are affected by the deconvolution method used (p < 0.05), while CBV values remain unchanged. Optimal thresholds to delineate ischemic core and penumbra are different for delay-sensitive (145 % MTT, CBV 2 ml × 100 g(-1) × min(-1)) and delay-insensitive deconvolution (135 % MTT, CBV 2 ml × 100 g(-1) × min(-1) for delay-insensitive deconvolution). When applying these different thresholds, however, the predicted ischemic core (p = 0.366) and penumbra (p = 0.405) were similar with both methods. CONCLUSION: Both delay-sensitive and delay-insensitive deconvolution methods are appropriate for PCT processing in acute ischemic stroke patients. The predicted ischemic core and penumbra are similar with both methods when using different sets of thresholds, specific for each deconvolution method.

Sex differences in brain plasticity: a new hypothesis for sex ratio bias in autism.

Several observations support the hypothesis that differences in synaptic and regional cerebral plasticity between the sexes account for the high ratio of males to females in autism. First, males are more susceptible than females to perturbations in genes involved in synaptic plasticity. Second, sex-related differences in non-autistic brain structure and function are observed in highly variable regions, namely, the heteromodal associative cortices, and overlap with structural particularities and enhanced activity of perceptual associative regions in autistic individuals. Finally, functional cortical reallocations following brain lesions in non-autistic adults (for example, traumatic brain injury, multiple sclerosis) are sex-dependent. Interactions between genetic sex and hormones may therefore result in higher synaptic and consecutively regional plasticity in perceptual brain areas in males than in females. The onset of autism may largely involve mutations altering synaptic plasticity that create a plastic reaction affecting the most variable and sexually dimorphic brain regions. The sex ratio bias in autism may arise because males have a lower threshold than females for the development of this plastic reaction following a genetic or environmental event.

Geometric stopping of a random walk and its applications to valuing equity-linked death benefits

We study discrete-time models in which death benefits can depend on a stock price index, the logarithm of which is modeled as a random walk. Examples of such benefit payments include put and call options, barrier options, and lookback options. Because the distribution of the curtate-future-lifetime can be approximated by a linear combination of geometric distributions, it suffices to consider curtate-future-lifetimes with a geometric distribution. In binomial and trinomial tree models, closed-form expressions for the expectations of the discounted benefit payment are obtained for a series of options. They are based on results concerning geometric stopping of a random walk, in particular also on a version of the Wiener-Hopf factorization.

L'exploitation des peintures en spray en criminalistique: mise en place d'une procédure de gestion et de comparaison des spectres infrarouges à l'aide des statistiques multivariées

La spectroscopie infrarouge (FTIR) est une technique de choix dans l'analyse des peintures en spray (traces ou bonbonnes de référence), grâce à son fort pouvoir discriminant, sa sensibilité, et ses nombreuses possibilités d'échantillonnage. La comparaison des spectres obtenus est aujourd'hui principalement faite visuellement, mais cette procédure présente des limitations telles que la subjectivité de la prise de décision car celle-ci dépend de l'expérience et de la formation suivie par l'expert. De ce fait, de faibles différences d'intensités relatives entre deux pics peuvent être perçues différemment par des experts, même au sein d'un même laboratoire. Lorsqu'il s'agit de justifier ces différences, certains les expliqueront par la méthode analytique utilisée, alors que d'autres estimeront plutôt qu'il s'agit d'une variabilité intrinsèque à la peinture et/ou à son vécu (par exemple homogénéité, sprayage, ou dégradation). Ce travail propose d'étudier statistiquement les différentes sources de variabilité observables dans les spectres infrarouges, de les identifier, de les comprendre et tenter de les minimiser. Le deuxième objectif principal est de proposer une procédure de comparaison des spectres qui soit davantage transparente et permette d'obtenir des réponses reproductibles indépendamment des experts interrogés. La première partie du travail traite de l'optimisation de la mesure infrarouge et des principaux paramètres analytiques. Les conditions nécessaires afin d'obtenir des spectres reproductibles et minimisant la variation au sein d'un même échantillon (intra-variabilité) sont présentées. Par la suite une procédure de correction des spectres est proposée au moyen de prétraitements et de sélections de variables, afin de minimiser les erreurs systématiques et aléatoires restantes, et de maximiser l'information chimique pertinente. La seconde partie présente une étude de marché effectuée sur 74 bonbonnes de peintures en spray représentatives du marché suisse. Les capacités de discrimination de la méthode FTIR au niveau de la marque et du modèle sont évaluées au moyen d'une procédure visuelle, et comparées à diverses procédures statistiques. Les limites inférieures de discrimination sont testées sur des peintures de marques et modèles identiques mais provenant de différents lots de production. Les résultats ont montré que la composition en pigments était particulièrement discriminante, à cause des étapes de corrections et d'ajustement de la couleur subies lors de la production. Les particularités associées aux peintures en spray présentes sous forme de traces (graffitis, gouttelettes) ont également été testées. Trois éléments sont mis en évidence et leur influence sur le spectre infrarouge résultant testée : 1) le temps minimum de secouage nécessaire afin d'obtenir une homogénéité suffisante de la peinture et, en conséquence, de la surface peinte, 2) la dégradation initiée par le rayonnement ultra- violet en extérieur, et 3) la contamination provenant du support lors du prélèvement. Finalement une étude de population a été réalisée sur 35 graffitis de la région lausannoise et les résultats comparés à l'étude de marché des bonbonnes en spray. La dernière partie de ce travail s'est concentrée sur l'étape de prise de décision lors de la comparaison de spectres deux-à-deux, en essayant premièrement de comprendre la pratique actuelle au sein des laboratoires au moyen d'un questionnaire, puis de proposer une méthode statistique de comparaison permettant d'améliorer l'objectivité et la transparence lors de la prise de décision. Une méthode de comparaison basée sur la corrélation entre les spectres est proposée, et ensuite combinée à une évaluation Bayesienne de l'élément de preuve au niveau de la source et au niveau de l'activité. Finalement des exemples pratiques sont présentés et la méthodologie est discutée afin de définir le rôle précis de l'expert et des statistiques dans la procédure globale d'analyse des peintures. -- Infrared spectroscopy (FTIR) is a technique of choice for analyzing spray paint speciments (i.e. traces) and reference samples (i.e. cans seized from suspects) due to its high discriminating power, sensitivity and sampling possibilities. The comparison of the spectra is currently carried out visually, but this procedure has limitations such as the subjectivity in the decision due to its dependency on the experience and training of the expert. This implies that small differences in the relative intensity of two peaks can be perceived differently by experts, even between analysts working in the same laboratory. When it comes to justifying these differences, some will explain them by the analytical technique, while others will estimate that the observed differences are mostly due to an intrinsic variability from the paint sample and/or its acquired characteristics (for example homogeneity, spraying, or degradation). This work proposes to statistically study the different sources of variability observed in infrared spectra, to identify them, understand them and try to minimize them. The second goal is to propose a procedure for spectra comparison that is more transparent, and allows obtaining reproducible answers being independent from the expert. The first part of the manuscript focuses on the optimization of infrared measurement and on the main analytical parameters. The necessary conditions to obtain reproducible spectra with a minimized variation within a sample (intra-variability) are presented. Following that a procedure of spectral correction is then proposed using pretreatments and variable selection methods, in order to minimize systematic and random errors, and increase simultaneously relevant chemical information. The second part presents a market study of 74 spray paints representative of the Swiss market. The discrimination capabilities of FTIR at the brand and model level are evaluated by means of visual and statistical procedures. The inferior limits of discrimination are tested on paints coming from the same brand and model, but from different production batches. The results showed that the pigment composition was particularly discriminatory, because of the corrections and adjustments made to the paint color during its manufacturing process. The features associated with spray paint traces (graffitis, droplets) were also tested. Three elements were identified and their influence on the resulting infrared spectra were tested: 1) the minimum shaking time necessary to obtain a sufficient homogeneity of the paint and subsequently of the painted surface, 2) the degradation initiated by ultraviolet radiation in an exterior environment, and 3) the contamination from the support when paint is recovered. Finally a population study was performed on 35 graffitis coming from the city of Lausanne and surroundings areas, and the results were compared to the previous market study of spray cans. The last part concentrated on the decision process during the pairwise comparison of spectra. First, an understanding of the actual practice among laboratories was initiated by submitting a questionnaire. Then, a proposition for a statistical method of comparison was advanced to improve the objectivity and transparency during the decision process. A method of comparison based on the correlation between spectra is proposed, followed by the integration into a Bayesian framework at both source and activity levels. Finally, some case examples are presented and the recommended methodology is discussed in order to define the role of the expert as well as the contribution of the tested statistical approach within a global analytical sequence for paint examinations.

Priming psychic and conjuring abilities of a magic demonstration influences event interpretation and random number generation biases

Magical ideation and belief in the paranormal is considered to represent a trait-like character; people either believe in it or not. Yet, anecdotes indicate that exposure to an anomalous event can turn skeptics into believers. This transformation is likely to be accompanied by altered cognitive functioning such as impaired judgments of event likelihood. Here, we investigated whether the exposure to an anomalous event changes individuals' explicit traditional (religious) and non-traditional (e.g., paranormal) beliefs as well as cognitive biases that have previously been associated with non-traditional beliefs, e.g., repetition avoidance when producing random numbers in a mental dice task. In a classroom, 91 students saw a magic demonstration after their psychology lecture. Before the demonstration, half of the students were told that the performance was done respectively by a conjuror (magician group) or a psychic (psychic group). The instruction influenced participants' explanations of the anomalous event. Participants in the magician, as compared to the psychic group, were more likely to explain the event through conjuring abilities while the reverse was true for psychic abilities. Moreover, these explanations correlated positively with their prior traditional and non-traditional beliefs. Finally, we observed that the psychic group showed more repetition avoidance than the magician group, and this effect remained the same regardless of whether assessed before or after the magic demonstration. We conclude that pre-existing beliefs and contextual suggestions both influence people's interpretations of anomalous events and associated cognitive biases. Beliefs and associated cognitive biases are likely flexible well into adulthood and change with actual life events.

Clinical determinants of early parasitological response to ACTs in African patients with uncomplicated falciparum malaria: a literature review and meta-analysis of individual patient data.

BACKGROUND: Artemisinin-resistant Plasmodium falciparum has emerged in the Greater Mekong sub-region and poses a major global public health threat. Slow parasite clearance is a key clinical manifestation of reduced susceptibility to artemisinin. This study was designed to establish the baseline values for clearance in patients from Sub-Saharan African countries with uncomplicated malaria treated with artemisinin-based combination therapies (ACTs). METHODS: A literature review in PubMed was conducted in March 2013 to identify all prospective clinical trials (uncontrolled trials, controlled trials and randomized controlled trials), including ACTs conducted in Sub-Saharan Africa, between 1960 and 2012. Individual patient data from these studies were shared with the WorldWide Antimalarial Resistance Network (WWARN) and pooled using an a priori statistical analytical plan. Factors affecting early parasitological response were investigated using logistic regression with study sites fitted as a random effect. The risk of bias in included studies was evaluated based on study design, methodology and missing data. RESULTS: In total, 29,493 patients from 84 clinical trials were included in the analysis, treated with artemether-lumefantrine (n = 13,664), artesunate-amodiaquine (n = 11,337) and dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine (n = 4,492). The overall parasite clearance rate was rapid. The parasite positivity rate (PPR) decreased from 59.7 % (95 % CI: 54.5-64.9) on day 1 to 6.7 % (95 % CI: 4.8-8.7) on day 2 and 0.9 % (95 % CI: 0.5-1.2) on day 3. The 95th percentile of observed day 3 PPR was 5.3 %. Independent risk factors predictive of day 3 positivity were: high baseline parasitaemia (adjusted odds ratio (AOR) = 1.16 (95 % CI: 1.08-1.25); per 2-fold increase in parasite density, P <0.001); fever (>37.5 °C) (AOR = 1.50 (95 % CI: 1.06-2.13), P = 0.022); severe anaemia (AOR = 2.04 (95 % CI: 1.21-3.44), P = 0.008); areas of low/moderate transmission setting (AOR = 2.71 (95 % CI: 1.38-5.36), P = 0.004); and treatment with the loose formulation of artesunate-amodiaquine (AOR = 2.27 (95 % CI: 1.14-4.51), P = 0.020, compared to dihydroartemisinin-piperaquine). CONCLUSIONS: The three ACTs assessed in this analysis continue to achieve rapid early parasitological clearance across the sites assessed in Sub-Saharan Africa. A threshold of 5 % day 3 parasite positivity from a minimum sample size of 50 patients provides a more sensitive benchmark in Sub-Saharan Africa compared to the current recommended threshold of 10 % to trigger further investigation of artemisinin susceptibility.

Improved predictive mapping of indoor radon concentrations using ensemble regression trees based on automatic clustering of geological units.

PURPOSE: According to estimations around 230 people die as a result of radon exposure in Switzerland. This public health concern makes reliable indoor radon prediction and mapping methods necessary in order to improve risk communication to the public. The aim of this study was to develop an automated method to classify lithological units according to their radon characteristics and to develop mapping and predictive tools in order to improve local radon prediction. METHOD: About 240 000 indoor radon concentration (IRC) measurements in about 150 000 buildings were available for our analysis. The automated classification of lithological units was based on k-medoids clustering via pair-wise Kolmogorov distances between IRC distributions of lithological units. For IRC mapping and prediction we used random forests and Bayesian additive regression trees (BART). RESULTS: The automated classification groups lithological units well in terms of their IRC characteristics. Especially the IRC differences in metamorphic rocks like gneiss are well revealed by this method. The maps produced by random forests soundly represent the regional difference of IRCs in Switzerland and improve the spatial detail compared to existing approaches. We could explain 33% of the variations in IRC data with random forests. Additionally, the influence of a variable evaluated by random forests shows that building characteristics are less important predictors for IRCs than spatial/geological influences. BART could explain 29% of IRC variability and produced maps that indicate the prediction uncertainty. CONCLUSION: Ensemble regression trees are a powerful tool to model and understand the multidimensional influences on IRCs. Automatic clustering of lithological units complements this method by facilitating the interpretation of radon properties of rock types. This study provides an important element for radon risk communication. Future approaches should consider taking into account further variables like soil gas radon measurements as well as more detailed geological information.

Prenatal Risk Factors and Outcomes in Gastroschisis: A Meta-Analysis.

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVE: Gastroschisis is a congenital anomaly with increasing incidence, easy prenatal diagnosis and extremely variable postnatal outcomes. Our objective was to systematically review the evidence regarding the association between prenatal ultrasound signs (intraabdominal bowel dilatation [IABD], extraabdominal bowel dilatation, gastric dilatation [GD], bowel wall thickness, polyhydramnios, and small for gestational age) and perinatal outcomes in gastroschisis (bowel atresia, intra uterine death, neonatal death, time to full enteral feeding, length of total parenteral nutrition and length of in hospital stay). METHODS: Medline, Embase, and Cochrane databases were searched electronically. Studies exploring the association between antenatal ultrasound signs and outcomes in gastroschisis were considered suitable for inclusion. Two reviewers independently extracted relevant data regarding study characteristics and pregnancy outcome. All meta-analyses were computed using individual data random-effect logistic regression, with single study as the cluster unit. RESULTS: Twenty-six studies, including 2023 fetuses, were included. We found significant positive associations between IABD and bowel atresia (odds ratio [OR]: 5.48, 95% confidence interval [CI] 3.1-9.8), polyhydramnios and bowel atresia (OR: 3.76, 95% CI 1.7-8.3), and GD and neonatal death (OR: 5.58, 95% CI 1.3-24.1). No other ultrasound sign was significantly related to any other outcome. CONCLUSIONS: IABD, polyhydramnios, and GD can be used to an extent to identify a subgroup of neonates with a prenatal diagnosis of gastroschisis at higher risk to develop postnatal complications. Data are still inconclusive on the predictive ability of several signs combined, and large prospective studies are needed to improve the quality of prenatal counseling and the neonatal care for this condition.

Geospatial approach for defining the Wildland-Urban Interface in the Alpine environment

Problems related to fire hazard and fire management have become in recent decades one of the most relevant issues in the Wildland-Urban Interface (WUI), that is the area where human infrastructures meet or intermingle with natural vegetation. In this paper we develop a robust geospatial method for defining and mapping the WUI in the Alpine environment, where most interactions between infrastructures and wildland vegetation concern the fire ignition through human activities, whereas no significant threats exist for infrastructures due to contact with burning vegetation. We used the three Alpine Swiss cantons of Ticino, Valais and Grisons as the study area. The features representing anthropogenic infrastructures (urban or infrastructural components of the WUI) as well as forest cover related features (wildland component of the WUI) were selected from the Swiss Topographic Landscape Model (TLM3D). Georeferenced forest fire occurrences derived from the WSL Swissfire database were used to define suitable WUI interface distances. The Random Forest algorithm was applied to estimate the importance of predictor variables to fire ignition occurrence. This revealed that buildings and drivable roads are the most relevant anthropogenic components with respect to fire ignition. We consequently defined the combination of drivable roads and easily accessible (i.e. 100 m from the next drivable road) buildings as the WUI-relevant infrastructural component. For the definition of the interface (buffer) distance between WUI infrastructural and wildland components, we computed the empirical cumulative distribution functions (ECDF) of the percentage of ignition points (observed and simulated) arising at increasing distances from the selected infrastructures. The ECDF facilitates the calculation of both the distance at which a given percentage of ignition points occurred and, in turn, the amount of forest area covered at a given distance. Finally, we developed a GIS ModelBuilder routine to map the WUI for the selected buffer distance. The approach was found to be reproducible, robust (based on statistical analyses for evaluating parameters) and flexible (buffer distances depending on the targeted final area covered) so that fire managers may use it to detect WUI according to their specific priorities.

Progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy in common variable immunodeficiency: mitigated course under mirtazapine and mefloquine.

Demonstration of survival and outcome of progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (PML) in a 56-year-old patient with common variable immunodeficiency, consisting of severe hypogammaglobulinemia and CD4+ T lymphocytopenia, during continuous treatment with mirtazapine (30 mg/day) and mefloquine (250 mg/week) over 23 months. Regular clinical examinations including Rankin scale and Barthel index, nine-hole peg and box and block tests, Berg balance, 10-m walking tests, and Montreal Cognitive Assessment (MoCA) were done. Laboratory diagnostics included complete blood count and JC virus (JCV) concentration in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF). The noncoding control region (NCCR) of JCV, important for neurotropism and neurovirulence, was sequenced. Repetitive MRI investigated the course of brain lesions. JCV was detected in increasing concentrations (peak 2568 copies/ml CSF), and its NCCR was genetically rearranged. Under treatment, the rearrangement changed toward the archetype sequence, and later JCV DNA became undetectable. Total brain lesion volume decreased (8.54 to 3.97 cm(3)) and atrophy increased. Barthel (60 to 100 to 80 points) and Rankin (4 to 2 to 3) scores, gait stability, and box and block (7, 35, 25 pieces) and nine-hole peg (300, 50, 300 s) test performances first improved but subsequently worsened. Cognition and walking speed remained stable. Despite initial rapid deterioration, the patient survived under continuous treatment with mirtazapine and mefloquine even though he belongs to a PML subgroup that is usually fatal within a few months. This course was paralleled by JCV clones with presumably lower replication capability before JCV became undetectable. Neurological deficits were due to PML lesions and progressive brain atrophy.

Combining conservative and variable markers to inferthe evolutionary history of Prunus subgen. Amygdalus s.l.under domestication

The genus Prunus L. is large and economically important. However, phylogenetic relationships within Prunus at low taxonomic level, particularly in the subgenus Amygdalus L. s.l., remain poorly investigated. This paper attempts to document the evolutionary history of Amygdalus s.l. and establishes a temporal framework, by assembling molecular data from conservative and variable molecular markers. The nuclear s6pdh gene in combination with the plastid trnSG spacer are analyzed with bayesian and maximum likelihood methods. Since previous phylogenetic analysis with these markers lacked resolution, we additionally analyzed 13 nuclear SSR loci with the δµ2 distance, followed by an unweighted pair group method using arithmetic averages algorithm. Our phylogenetic analysis with both sequence and SSR loci confirms the split between sections Amygdalus and Persica, comprising almonds and peaches, respectively. This result is in agreement with biogeographic data showing that each of the two sections is naturally distributed on each side of the Central Asian Massif chain. Using coalescent based estimations, divergence times between the two sections strongly varied when considering sequence data only or combined with SSR. The sequence-only based estimate (5 million years ago) was congruent with the Central Asian Massif orogeny and subsequent climate change. Given the low level of differentiation within the two sections using both marker types, the utility of combining microsatellites and data sequences to address phylogenetic relationships at low taxonomic level within Amygdalus is discussed. The recent evolutionary histories of almond and peach are discussed in view of the domestication processes that arose in these two phenotypically-diverging gene pools: almonds and peaches were domesticated from the Amygdalus s.s. and Persica sections, respectively. Such economically important crops may serve as good model to study divergent domestication process in close genetic pool.