Subclinical Hypothyroidism and the Risk of Stroke Events and Fatal Stroke: An Individual Participant Data Analysis.

OBJECTIVE: The objective was to determine the risk of stroke associated with subclinical hypothyroidism. DATA SOURCES AND STUDY SELECTION: Published prospective cohort studies were identified through a systematic search through November 2013 without restrictions in several databases. Unpublished studies were identified through the Thyroid Studies Collaboration. We collected individual participant data on thyroid function and stroke outcome. Euthyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 0.45-4.49 mIU/L, and subclinical hypothyroidism was defined as TSH levels of 4.5-19.9 mIU/L with normal T4 levels. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: We collected individual participant data on 47 573 adults (3451 subclinical hypothyroidism) from 17 cohorts and followed up from 1972-2014 (489 192 person-years). Age- and sex-adjusted pooled hazard ratios (HRs) for participants with subclinical hypothyroidism compared to euthyroidism were 1.05 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.91-1.21) for stroke events (combined fatal and nonfatal stroke) and 1.07 (95% CI, 0.80-1.42) for fatal stroke. Stratified by age, the HR for stroke events was 3.32 (95% CI, 1.25-8.80) for individuals aged 18-49 years. There was an increased risk of fatal stroke in the age groups 18-49 and 50-64 years, with a HR of 4.22 (95% CI, 1.08-16.55) and 2.86 (95% CI, 1.31-6.26), respectively (p trend 0.04). We found no increased risk for those 65-79 years old (HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.86-1.18) or ≥ 80 years old (HR, 1.31; 95% CI, 0.79-2.18). There was a pattern of increased risk of fatal stroke with higher TSH concentrations. CONCLUSIONS: Although no overall effect of subclinical hypothyroidism on stroke could be demonstrated, an increased risk in subjects younger than 65 years and those with higher TSH concentrations was observed.

Strong impact of smoking on multimorbidity and cardiovascular risk among human immunodeficiency virus-infected individuals in comparison with the general population.

Background.  Although acquired immune deficiency syndrome-associated morbidity has diminished due to excellent viral control, multimorbidity may be increasing among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons compared with the general population. Methods.  We assessed the prevalence of comorbidities and multimorbidity in participants of the Swiss HIV Cohort Study (SHCS) compared with the population-based CoLaus study and the primary care-based FIRE (Family Medicine ICPC-Research using Electronic Medical Records) records. The incidence of the respective endpoints were assessed among SHCS and CoLaus participants. Poisson regression models were adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, and smoking. Results.  Overall, 74 291 participants contributed data to prevalence analyses (3230 HIV-infected; 71 061 controls). In CoLaus, FIRE, and SHCS, multimorbidity was present among 26%, 13%, and 27% of participants. Compared with nonsmoking individuals from CoLaus, the incidence of cardiovascular disease was elevated among smoking individuals but independent of HIV status (HIV-negative smoking: incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.7, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.2-2.5; HIV-positive smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.1-2.6; HIV-positive nonsmoking: IRR = 0.79, 95% CI = 0.44-1.4). Compared with nonsmoking HIV-negative persons, multivariable Poisson regression identified associations of HIV infection with hypertension (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.9, 95% CI = 1.5-2.4; smoking: IRR = 2.0, 95% CI = 1.6-2.4), kidney (nonsmoking: IRR = 2.7, 95% CI = 1.9-3.8; smoking: IRR = 2.6, 95% CI = 1.9-3.6), and liver disease (nonsmoking: IRR = 1.8, 95% CI = 1.4-2.4; smoking: IRR = 1.7, 95% CI = 1.4-2.2). No evidence was found for an association of HIV-infection or smoking with diabetes mellitus. Conclusions.  Multimorbidity is more prevalent and incident in HIV-positive compared with HIV-negative individuals. Smoking, but not HIV status, has a strong impact on cardiovascular risk and multimorbidity.

Multiplicative interaction of functional inflammasome genetic variants in determining the risk of gout.

INTRODUCTION: The acute gout flare results from a localised self-limiting innate immune response to monosodium urate (MSU) crystals deposited in joints in hyperuricaemic individuals. Activation of the caspase recruitment domain-containing protein 8 (CARD8) NOD-like receptor pyrin-containing 3 (NLRP3) inflammasome by MSU crystals and production of mature interleukin-1β (IL-1β) is central to acute gouty arthritis. However very little is known about genetic control of the innate immune response involved in acute gouty arthritis. Therefore our aim was to test functional single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) variants in the toll-like receptor (TLR)-inflammasome-IL-1β axis for association with gout. METHODS: 1,494 gout cases of European and 863 gout cases of New Zealand (NZ) Polynesian (Māori and Pacific Island) ancestry were included. Gout was diagnosed by the 1977 ARA gout classification criteria. There were 1,030 Polynesian controls and 10,942 European controls including from the publicly-available Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities (ARIC) and Framingham Heart (FHS) studies. The ten SNPs were either genotyped by Sequenom MassArray or by Affymetrix SNP array or imputed in the ARIC and FHS datasets. Allelic association was done by logistic regression adjusting by age and sex with European and Polynesian data combined by meta-analysis. Sample sets were pooled for multiplicative interaction analysis, which was also adjusted by sample set. RESULTS: Eleven SNPs were tested in the TLR2, CD14, IL1B, CARD8, NLRP3, MYD88, P2RX7, DAPK1 and TNXIP genes. Nominally significant (P < 0.05) associations with gout were detected at CARD8 rs2043211 (OR = 1.12, P = 0.007), IL1B rs1143623 (OR = 1.10, P = 0.020) and CD14 rs2569190 (OR = 1.08; P = 0.036). There was significant multiplicative interaction between CARD8 and IL1B (P = 0.005), with the IL1B risk genotype amplifying the risk effect of CARD8. CONCLUSION: There is evidence for association of gout with functional variants in CARD8, IL1B and CD14. The gout-associated allele of IL1B increases expression of IL-1β - the multiplicative interaction with CARD8 would be consistent with a synergy of greater inflammasome activity (resulting from reduced CARD8) combined with higher levels of pre-IL-1β expression leading to increased production of mature IL-1β in gout.

Selective serotonin reuptake inhibitor antidepressant use in first trimester pregnancy and risk of specific congenital anomalies: a European register-based study.

Evidence of an association between early pregnancy exposure to selective serotonin reuptake inhibitors (SSRI) and congenital heart defects (CHD) has contributed to recommendations to weigh benefits and risks carefully. The objective of this study was to determine the specificity of association between first trimester exposure to SSRIs and specific CHD and other congenital anomalies (CA) associated with SSRI exposure in the literature (signals). A population-based case-malformed control study was conducted in 12 EUROCAT CA registries covering 2.1 million births 1995-2009 including livebirths, fetal deaths from 20 weeks gestation and terminations of pregnancy for fetal anomaly. Babies/fetuses with specific CHD (n = 12,876) and non-CHD signal CA (n = 13,024), were compared with malformed controls whose diagnosed CA have not been associated with SSRI in the literature (n = 17,083). SSRI exposure in first trimester pregnancy was associated with CHD overall (OR adjusted for registry 1.41, 95 % CI 1.07-1.86, fluoxetine adjOR 1.43 95 % CI 0.85-2.40, paroxetine adjOR 1.53, 95 % CI 0.91-2.58) and with severe CHD (adjOR 1.56, 95 % CI 1.02-2.39), particularly Tetralogy of Fallot (adjOR 3.16, 95 % CI 1.52-6.58) and Ebstein's anomaly (adjOR 8.23, 95 % CI 2.92-23.16). Significant associations with SSRI exposure were also found for ano-rectal atresia/stenosis (adjOR 2.46, 95 % CI 1.06-5.68), gastroschisis (adjOR 2.42, 95 % CI 1.10-5.29), renal dysplasia (adjOR 3.01, 95 % CI 1.61-5.61), and clubfoot (adjOR 2.41, 95 % CI 1.59-3.65). These data support a teratogenic effect of SSRIs specific to certain anomalies, but cannot exclude confounding by indication or associated factors.

An interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis: a case study in the Fella River basin, Italy

This paper presents a prototype of an interactive web-GIS tool for risk analysis of natural hazards, in particular for floods and landslides, based on open-source geospatial software and technologies. The aim of the presented tool is to assist the experts (risk managers) in analysing the impacts and consequences of a certain hazard event in a considered region, providing an essential input to the decision-making process in the selection of risk management strategies by responsible authorities and decision makers. This tool is based on the Boundless (OpenGeo Suite) framework and its client-side environment for prototype development, and it is one of the main modules of a web-based collaborative decision support platform in risk management. Within this platform, the users can import necessary maps and information to analyse areas at risk. Based on provided information and parameters, loss scenarios (amount of damages and number of fatalities) of a hazard event are generated on the fly and visualized interactively within the web-GIS interface of the platform. The annualized risk is calculated based on the combination of resultant loss scenarios with different return periods of the hazard event. The application of this developed prototype is demonstrated using a regional data set from one of the case study sites, Fella River of northeastern Italy, of the Marie Curie ITN CHANGES project.

Postnatal retention in HIV care : insight from the Swiss HIV Cohort Study over a 15-year observational period

OBJECTIVES: The aim of this study was to quantify loss to follow-up (LTFU) in HIV care after delivery and to identify risk factors for LTFU, and implications for HIV disease progression and subsequent pregnancies. METHODS: We used data on pregnancies within the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from 1996 to 2011. A delayed clinical visit was defined as > 180 days and LTFU as no visit for > 365 days after delivery. Logistic regression analysis was used to identify risk factors for LTFU. RESULTS: A total of 695 pregnancies in 580 women were included in the study, of which 115 (17%) were subsequent pregnancies. Median maternal age was 32 years (IQR 28-36 years) and 104 (15%) women reported any history of injecting drug use (IDU). Overall, 233 of 695 (34%) women had a delayed visit in the year after delivery and 84 (12%) women were lost to follow-up. Being lost to follow-up was significantly associated with a history of IDU [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2.79; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.32-5.88; P = 0.007] and not achieving an undetectable HIV viral load (VL) at delivery (aOR 2.42; 95% CI 1.21-4.85; P = 0.017) after adjusting for maternal age, ethnicity and being on antiretroviral therapy (ART) at conception. Forty-three of 84 (55%) women returned to care after LTFU. Half of them (20 of 41) with available CD4 had a CD4 count < 350 cells/μL and 15% (six of 41) a CD4 count < 200 cells/μL at their return. CONCLUSIONS: A history of IDU and detectable HIV VL at delivery were associated with LTFU. Effective strategies are warranted to retain women in care beyond pregnancy and to avoid CD4 cell count decline. ART continuation should be advised especially if a subsequent pregnancy is planned.

A Meta-Analysis of Trabecular Bone Score in Fracture Risk Prediction and Its Relationship to FRAX.

Trabecular bone score (TBS) is a gray-level textural index of bone microarchitecture derived from lumbar spine dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) images. TBS is a bone mineral density (BMD)-independent predictor of fracture risk. The objective of this meta-analysis was to determine whether TBS predicted fracture risk independently of FRAX probability and to examine their combined performance by adjusting the FRAX probability for TBS. We utilized individual-level data from 17,809 men and women in 14 prospective population-based cohorts. Baseline evaluation included TBS and the FRAX risk variables, and outcomes during follow-up (mean 6.7 years) comprised major osteoporotic fractures. The association between TBS, FRAX probabilities, and the risk of fracture was examined using an extension of the Poisson regression model in each cohort and for each sex and expressed as the gradient of risk (GR; hazard ratio per 1 SD change in risk variable in direction of increased risk). FRAX probabilities were adjusted for TBS using an adjustment factor derived from an independent cohort (the Manitoba Bone Density Cohort). Overall, the GR of TBS for major osteoporotic fracture was 1.44 (95% confidence interval [CI] 1.35-1.53) when adjusted for age and time since baseline and was similar in men and women (p > 0.10). When additionally adjusted for FRAX 10-year probability of major osteoporotic fracture, TBS remained a significant, independent predictor for fracture (GR = 1.32, 95% CI 1.24-1.41). The adjustment of FRAX probability for TBS resulted in a small increase in the GR (1.76, 95% CI 1.65-1.87 versus 1.70, 95% CI 1.60-1.81). A smaller change in GR for hip fracture was observed (FRAX hip fracture probability GR 2.25 vs. 2.22). TBS is a significant predictor of fracture risk independently of FRAX. The findings support the use of TBS as a potential adjustment for FRAX probability, though the impact of the adjustment remains to be determined in the context of clinical assessment guidelines. © 2015 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.