Object-oriented Bayesian networks for evaluating DIP-STR profiling results from unbalanced DNA mixtures.

The genetic characterization of unbalanced mixed stains remains an important area where improvement is imperative. In fact, with current methods for DNA analysis (Polymerase Chain Reaction with the SGM Plus™ multiplex kit), it is generally not possible to obtain a conventional autosomal DNA profile of the minor contributor if the ratio between the two contributors in a mixture is smaller than 1:10. This is a consequence of the fact that the major contributor's profile 'masks' that of the minor contributor. Besides known remedies to this problem, such as Y-STR analysis, a new compound genetic marker that consists of a Deletion/Insertion Polymorphism (DIP), linked to a Short Tandem Repeat (STR) polymorphism, has recently been developed and proposed elsewhere in literature [1]. The present paper reports on the derivation of an approach for the probabilistic evaluation of DIP-STR profiling results obtained from unbalanced DNA mixtures. The procedure is based on object-oriented Bayesian networks (OOBNs) and uses the likelihood ratio as an expression of the probative value. OOBNs are retained in this paper because they allow one to provide a clear description of the genotypic configuration observed for the mixed stain as well as for the various potential contributors (e.g., victim and suspect). These models also allow one to depict the assumed relevance relationships and perform the necessary probabilistic computations.

Do pseudo-absence selection strategies influence species distribution models and their predictions? An information-theoretic approach based on simulated data

Background Multiple logistic regression is precluded from many practical applications in ecology that aim to predict the geographic distributions of species because it requires absence data, which are rarely available or are unreliable. In order to use multiple logistic regression, many studies have simulated "pseudo-absences" through a number of strategies, but it is unknown how the choice of strategy influences models and their geographic predictions of species. In this paper we evaluate the effect of several prevailing pseudo-absence strategies on the predictions of the geographic distribution of a virtual species whose "true" distribution and relationship to three environmental predictors was predefined. We evaluated the effect of using a) real absences b) pseudo-absences selected randomly from the background and c) two-step approaches: pseudo-absences selected from low suitability areas predicted by either Ecological Niche Factor Analysis: (ENFA) or BIOCLIM. We compared how the choice of pseudo-absence strategy affected model fit, predictive power, and information-theoretic model selection results. Results Models built with true absences had the best predictive power, best discriminatory power, and the "true" model (the one that contained the correct predictors) was supported by the data according to AIC, as expected. Models based on random pseudo-absences had among the lowest fit, but yielded the second highest AUC value (0.97), and the "true" model was also supported by the data. Models based on two-step approaches had intermediate fit, the lowest predictive power, and the "true" model was not supported by the data. Conclusion If ecologists wish to build parsimonious GLM models that will allow them to make robust predictions, a reasonable approach is to use a large number of randomly selected pseudo-absences, and perform model selection based on an information theoretic approach. However, the resulting models can be expected to have limited fit.

Accompagnement thérapeutique : le chemin du suivi à long terme [Patient education: the way for long-term follow up]

L'éducation thérapeutique du patient est maintenant parfaitement intégrée dans les soins. Son champ d'application se situe essentiellement dans le domaine des maladies chroniques pour l'acquisition de compétences dans la gestion du traitement, en coopération avec les professionnels. En médecine ambulatoire, patients et soignants se heurtent actuellement aux difficultés du suivi avec sa part d'incertitude, lassitude et de pression économique. La médecine fondée sur les preuves (EBM) et les différents modèles en psychologie de la santé ne nous éclairent que partiellement le chemin. Un nouveau type de démarche réflexive est en train d'émerger. Cette réflexion devrait placer en son centre la notion de relation thérapeutique : entre science et existence. Nous résumons ici ce processus réflexif en cours d'une équipe interdisciplinaire regroupant sciences humaines, art et médecine. Therapeutic education is now perfectly integrated in caring and medicine. Its field of application is primarily in chronic diseases for the acquisition of competences in the management of treatments, in co-operation with health professionals. In ambulatory medicine, patients and health professionals are currently running up against the difficulties of the long-term follow-up with its part of uncertainty, lassitude and economic pressure. EBM and the various models of health psychology light us only partially the way. A new type of reflexive step is emerging. This way of thinking should place in its center the concept of therapeutic relation: between science and being. We summarize here our reflexive process in the course of an interdisciplinary team gathering social sciences, art and medicine

What spatial data do we need to develop global mammal conservation strategies?

Spatial data on species distributions are available in two main forms, point locations and distribution maps (polygon ranges and grids). The first are often temporally and spatially biased, and too discontinuous, to be useful (untransformed) in spatial analyses. A variety of modelling approaches are used to transform point locations into maps. We discuss the attributes that point location data and distribution maps must satisfy in order to be useful in conservation planning. We recommend that before point location data are used to produce and/or evaluate distribution models, the dataset should be assessed under a set of criteria, including sample size, age of data, environmental/geographical coverage, independence, accuracy, time relevance and (often forgotten) representation of areas of permanent and natural presence of the species. Distribution maps must satisfy additional attributes if used for conservation analyses and strategies, including minimizing commission and omission errors, credibility of the source/assessors and availability for public screening. We review currently available databases for mammals globally and show that they are highly variable in complying with these attributes. The heterogeneity and weakness of spatial data seriously constrain their utility to global and also sub-global scale conservation analyses.

Designing business models of cloud platforms

Cloud computing and its three facets (Software as a Service (SaaS), Platform as a Service (PaaS), and Infrastructure as a Service (IaaS)) are terms that denote new developments in the software industry. In particular, PaaS solutions, also referred to as cloud platforms, are changing the way software is being produced, distributed, consumed, and priced. Software vendors have started considering cloud platforms as a strategic option but are battling to redefine their offerings to embrace PaaS. In contrast to SaaS and IaaS, PaaS allows for value co-creation with partners to develop complementary components and applications. It thus requires multisided business models that bring together two or more distinct customer segments. Understanding how to design PaaS business models to establish a flourishing ecosystem is crucial for software vendors. This doctoral thesis aims to address this issue in three interrelated research parts. First, based on case study research, the thesis provides a deeper understanding of current PaaS business models and their evolution. Second, it analyses and simulates consumers' preferences regarding PaaS business models, using a conjoint approach to find out what determines the choice of cloud platforms. Finally, building on the previous research outcomes, the third part introduces a design theory for the emerging class of PaaS business models, which is grounded on an extensive action design research study with a large European software vendor. Understanding PaaS business models from a market as well as a consumer perspective will, together with the design theory, inform and guide decision makers in their business model innovation plans. It also closes gaps in the research related to PaaS business model design and more generally related to platform business models.

Additive functions in boolean models of gene regulatory network modules.

Gene-on-gene regulations are key components of every living organism. Dynamical abstract models of genetic regulatory networks help explain the genome's evolvability and robustness. These properties can be attributed to the structural topology of the graph formed by genes, as vertices, and regulatory interactions, as edges. Moreover, the actual gene interaction of each gene is believed to play a key role in the stability of the structure. With advances in biology, some effort was deployed to develop update functions in Boolean models that include recent knowledge. We combine real-life gene interaction networks with novel update functions in a Boolean model. We use two sub-networks of biological organisms, the yeast cell-cycle and the mouse embryonic stem cell, as topological support for our system. On these structures, we substitute the original random update functions by a novel threshold-based dynamic function in which the promoting and repressing effect of each interaction is considered. We use a third real-life regulatory network, along with its inferred Boolean update functions to validate the proposed update function. Results of this validation hint to increased biological plausibility of the threshold-based function. To investigate the dynamical behavior of this new model, we visualized the phase transition between order and chaos into the critical regime using Derrida plots. We complement the qualitative nature of Derrida plots with an alternative measure, the criticality distance, that also allows to discriminate between regimes in a quantitative way. Simulation on both real-life genetic regulatory networks show that there exists a set of parameters that allows the systems to operate in the critical region. This new model includes experimentally derived biological information and recent discoveries, which makes it potentially useful to guide experimental research. The update function confers additional realism to the model, while reducing the complexity and solution space, thus making it easier to investigate.

Large-scale analysis of orthologs and paralogs under covarion-like and constant-but-different models of amino acid evolution.

Functional divergence between homologous proteins is expected to affect amino acid sequences in two main ways, which can be considered as proxies of biochemical divergence: a "covarion-like" pattern of correlated changes in evolutionary rates, and switches in conserved residues ("conserved but different"). Although these patterns have been used in case studies, a large-scale analysis is needed to estimate their frequency and distribution. We use a phylogenomic framework of animal genes to answer three questions: 1) What is the prevalence of such patterns? 2) Can we link such patterns at the amino acid level with selection inferred at the codon level? 3) Are patterns different between paralogs and orthologs? We find that covarion-like patterns are more frequently detected than "constant but different," but that only the latter are correlated with signal for positive selection. Finally, there is no obvious difference in patterns between orthologs and paralogs.

Neuronal in vitro models for the estimation of acute systemic toxicity.

The objective of the EU funded integrated project "ACuteTox" is to develop a strategy in which general cytotoxicity, together with organ-specific endpoints and biokinetic features, are taken into consideration in the in vitro prediction of oral acute systemic toxicity. With regard to the nervous system, the effects of 23 reference chemicals were tested with approximately 50 endpoints, using a neuronal cell line, primary neuronal cell cultures, brain slices and aggregated brain cell cultures. Comparison of the in vitro neurotoxicity data with general cytotoxicity data generated in a non-neuronal cell line and with in vivo data such as acute human lethal blood concentration, revealed that GABA(A) receptor function, acetylcholine esterase activity, cell membrane potential, glucose uptake, total RNA expression and altered gene expression of NF-H, GFAP, MBP, HSP32 and caspase-3 were the best endpoints to use for further testing with 36 additional chemicals. The results of the second analysis showed that no single neuronal endpoint could give a perfect improvement in the in vitro-in vivo correlation, indicating that several specific endpoints need to be analysed and combined with biokinetic data to obtain the best correlation with in vivo acute toxicity.

Species distributions and interactions in a changing world : from understanding to forecasting

Les écosystèmes fournissent de nombreuses ressources et services écologiques qui sont utiles à la population humaine. La biodiversité est une composante essentielle des écosystèmes et maintient de nombreux services. Afin d'assurer la permanence des services écosystémiques, des mesures doivent être prises pour conserver la biodiversité. Dans ce but, l'acquisition d'informations détaillées sur la distribution de la biodiversité dans l'espace est essentielle. Les modèles de distribution d'espèces (SDMs) sont des modèles empiriques qui mettent en lien des observations de terrain (présences ou absences d'une espèce) avec des descripteurs de l'environnement, selon des courbes de réponses statistiques qui décrive la niche réalisée des espèces. Ces modèles fournissent des projections spatiales indiquant les lieux les plus favorables pour les espèces considérées. Le principal objectif de cette thèse est de fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution des espèces et des communautés en montagne pour le climat présent et futur en considérant non-seulement des variables abiotiques mais aussi biotiques. Les régions de montagne et l'écosystème alpin sont très sensibles aux changements globaux et en même temps assurent de nombreux services écosystémiques. Cette thèse est séparée en trois parties : (i) fournir une meilleure compréhension du rôle des interactions biotiques dans la distribution des espèces et l'assemblage des communautés en montagne (ouest des Alpes Suisses), (ii) permettre le développement d'une nouvelle approche pour modéliser la distribution spatiale de la biodiversité, (iii) fournir des projections plus réalistes de la distribution future des espèces ainsi que de la composition des communautés. En me focalisant sur les papillons, bourdons et plantes vasculaires, j'ai détecté des interactions biotiques importantes qui lient les espèces entre elles. J'ai également identifié la signature du filtre de l'environnement sur les communautés en haute altitude confirmant l'utilité des SDMs pour reproduire ce type de processus. A partir de ces études, j'ai contribué à l'amélioration méthodologique des SDMs dans le but de prédire les communautés en incluant les interactions biotiques et également les processus non-déterministes par une approche probabiliste. Cette approche permet de prédire non-seulement la distribution d'espèces individuelles, mais également celle de communautés dans leur entier en empilant les projections (S-SDMs). Finalement, j'ai utilisé cet outil pour prédire la distribution d'espèces et de communautés dans le passé et le futur. En particulier, j'ai modélisé la migration post-glaciaire de Trollius europaeus qui est à l'origine de la structure génétique intra-spécifique chez cette espèce et évalué les risques de perte face au changement climatique. Finalement, j'ai simulé la distribution des communautés de bourdons pour le 21e siècle afin d'évaluer les changements probables dans ce groupe important de pollinisateurs. La diversité fonctionnelle des bourdons va être altérée par la perte d'espèces spécialistes de haute altitude et ceci va influencer la pollinisation des plantes en haute altitude. - Ecosystems provide a multitude of resources and ecological services, which are useful to human. Biodiversity is an essential component of those ecosystems and guarantee many services. To assure the permanence of ecosystem services for future generation, measure should be applied to conserve biodiversity. For this purpose, the acquisition of detailed information on how biodiversity implicated in ecosystem function is distributed in space is essential. Species distribution models (SDMs) are empirical models relating field observations to environmental predictors based on statistically-derived response surfaces that fit the realized niche. These models result in spatial predictions indicating locations of the most suitable environment for the species and may potentially be applied to predict composition of communities and their functional properties. The main objective of this thesis was to provide more accurate projections of species and communities distribution under current and future climate in mountains by considering not solely abiotic but also biotic drivers of species distribution. Mountain areas and alpine ecosystems are considered as particularly sensitive to global changes and are also sources of essential ecosystem services. This thesis had three main goals: (i) a better ecological understanding of biotic interactions and how they shape the distribution of species and communities, (ii) the development of a novel approach to the spatial modeling of biodiversity, that can account for biotic interactions, and (iii) ecologically more realistic projections of future species distributions, of future composition and structure of communities. Focusing on butterfly and bumblebees in interaction with the vegetation, I detected important biotic interactions for species distribution and community composition of both plant and insects along environmental gradients. I identified the signature of environmental filtering processes at high elevation confirming the suitability of SDMs for reproducing patterns of filtering. Using those case-studies, I improved SDMs by incorporating biotic interaction and accounting for non-deterministic processes and uncertainty using a probabilistic based approach. I used improved modeling to forecast the distribution of species through the past and future climate changes. SDMs hindcasting allowed a better understanding of the spatial range dynamic of Trollius europaeus in Europe at the origin of the species intra-specific genetic diversity and identified the risk of loss of this genetic diversity caused by climate change. By simulating the future distribution of all bumblebee species in the western Swiss Alps under nine climate change scenarios for the 21st century, I found that the functional diversity of this pollinator guild will be largely affected by climate change through the loss of high elevation specialists. In turn, this will have important consequences on alpine plant pollination.

Prevalence, treatment and control of dyslipidaemia in Switzerland: still a long way to go.

BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the prevalence and management of dyslipidaemia in Switzerland. DESIGN: Cross-sectional population-based study of 3238 women and 2846 men aged 35-75. METHODS: Dyslipidaemia prevalence, treatment and control were defined according to PROCAM guidelines adapted to Switzerland. RESULTS: About 29% of the overall sample presented with dyslipidaemia, of which 39% were treated and 58% of those treated were controlled. Among the 710 patients with personal history of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and/or diabetes, 632 (89%) presented with dyslipidaemia, of which 278 (44%) and 134 (21%) patients were treated and adequately controlled, respectively. On multivariate analysis, hypolipidaemic drug treatment was positively related with age and body mass index (P for trend <0.001), and negatively related with smoking status (P for trend <0.002), whereas personal history of CVD and/or diabetes had no effect [odds ratio (OR)=1.12, 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.90-1.38]. Adequate control of lipid levels was negatively related with female sex (OR=0.65, 95% CI: 0.45-0.94) and personal history of CVD and/or diabetes (OR=0.42, 95% CI: 0.30-0.59). When personal history of CVD and/or diabetes was replaced by PROCAM risk categories, patients in the highest risk were also less well controlled. CONCLUSION: In this population-based study, one-third of the participants was dyslipidaemic, but less than half was treated and only one-fifth was adequately controlled. The low treatment and control levels among individuals at high risk for CVD calls for a better application of recommendations regarding personal preventive measures.

From deep seated slope deformation to rock avalanche: Destabilization and transportation models of the Sierre landslide (Switzerland)

Sackung is a widespread post-glacial morphological feature affecting Alpine mountains and creating characteristic geomorphological expression that can be detected from topography. Over long time evolution, internal deformation can lead to the formation of rapidly moving phenomena such as a rock-slide or rock avalanche. In this study, a detailed description of the Sierre rock-avalanche (SW Switzerland) is presented. This convex-shaped postglacial instability is one of the larger rock-avalanche in the Alps, involving more than 1.5 billion m3 with a run-out distance of about 14 km and extremely low Fahrböschung angle. This study presents comprehensive analyses of the structural and geological characteristics leading to the development of the Sierre rock-avalanche. In particular, by combining field observations, digital elevation model analyses and numerical modelling, the strong influence of both ductile and brittle tectonic structures on the failure mechanism and on the failure surface geometry is highlighted. The detection of pre-failure deformation indicates that the development of the rock avalanche corresponds to the last evolutionary stage of a pre-existing deep seated gravitational slope instability. These analyses accompanied by the dating and the characterization of rock avalanche deposits, allow the proposal of a destabilization model that clarifies the different phases leading to the development of the Sierre rock avalanche.

Interpretation and use of FRAX in clinical practice.

The introduction of the WHO FRAX® algorithms has facilitated the assessment of fracture risk on the basis of fracture probability. Its use in fracture risk prediction has strengths, but also limitations of which the clinician should be aware and are the focus of this review INTRODUCTION: The International Osteoporosis Foundation (IOF) and the International Society for Clinical Densitometry (ISCD) appointed a joint Task Force to develop resource documents in order to make recommendations on how to improve FRAX and better inform clinicians who use FRAX. The Task Force met in November 2010 for 3 days to discuss these topics which form the focus of this review. METHODS: This study reviews the resource documents and joint position statements of ISCD and IOF. RESULTS: Details on the clinical risk factors currently used in FRAX are provided, and the reasons for the exclusion of others are provided. Recommendations are made for the development of surrogate models where country-specific FRAX models are not available. CONCLUSIONS: The wish list of clinicians for the modulation of FRAX is large, but in many instances, these wishes cannot presently be fulfilled; however, an explanation and understanding of the reasons may be helpful in translating the information provided by FRAX into clinical practice.

Redox dysregulation and oxidative stress in schizophrenia: genetic and functional anomalies of glutathione synthesis in patients and experimental models involving GABA interneurons and NMDA receptors

Objective: Converging evidence speak in favor of an abnormal susceptibility to oxidative stress in schizophrenia. A decreased level of glutathione (GSH), the principal non-protein antioxidant and redox regulator, was observed both in cerebrospinal-fluid and prefrontal cortex of schizophrenia patients (Do et al., 2000). Results: Schizophrenia patients have an abnormal GSH synthesis most likely of genetic origin: Two independent case-control studies showed a significant association between schizophrenia and a GAG trinucleotide repeat (TNR) polymorphism in the GSH key synthesizing enzyme glutamate-cysteine-ligase (GCL) catalytic subunit (GCLC) gene. The most common TNR genotype 7/7 was more frequent in controls, whereas the rarest TNR genotype 8/8 was three times more frequent in patients. The disease-associated genotypes correlated with a decrease in GCLC protein expression, GCL activity and GSH content. Such a redox dysregulation during development could underlie the structural and functional anomalies in connectivity: In experimental models, GSH deficit induced anomalies similar to those observed in patients. (a) morphology: In animal models with GSH deficit during the development we observed in prefrontal cortex a decreased dendritic spines density in pyramidal cells and an abnormal development of parvalbumine (but not of calretinine) immunoreactive GABA interneurones in anterior cingulate cortex. (b) physiology: GSH depletion in hippocampal slices induces NMDA receptors hypofunction and an impairment of long term potentiation. In addition, GSH deficit affected the modulation of dopamine on NMDA-induced Ca 2+ response in cultured cortical neurons. While dopamine enhanced NMDA responses in control neurons, it depressed NMDA responses in GSH-depleted neurons. Antagonist of D2-, but not D1-receptors, prevented this depression, a mechanism contributing to the efficacy of antipsychotics. The redox sensitive ryanodine receptors and L-type calcium channels underlie these observations. (c) cognition: Developing rats with low [GSH] and high dopamine lead deficit in olfactory integration and in object recognition which appears earlier in males that females, in analogy to the delay of the psychosis onset between man and woman. Conclusion: These clinical and experimental evidence, combined with the favorable outcome of a clinical trial with N-Acetyl Cysteine, a GSH precursor, on both the negative symptoms (Berk et al., submitted) and the mismatch negativity in an auditory oddball paradigm supported the proposal that a GSH synthesis impairment of genetic origin represent, among other factors, one major risk factor in schizophrenia.