253 resultados para population viability analysis
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Background/objectives:Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is used in population and clinical studies as a technique for estimating body composition. Because of significant under-representation in existing literature, we sought to develop and validate predictive equation(s) for BIA for studies in populations of African origin.Subjects/methods:Among five cohorts of the Modeling the Epidemiologic Transition Study, height, weight, waist circumference and body composition, using isotope dilution, were measured in 362 adults, ages 25-45 with mean body mass indexes ranging from 24 to 32. BIA measures of resistance and reactance were measured using tetrapolar placement of electrodes and the same model of analyzer across sites (BIA 101Q, RJL Systems). Multiple linear regression analysis was used to develop equations for predicting fat-free mass (FFM), as measured by isotope dilution; covariates included sex, age, waist, reactance and height(2)/resistance, along with dummy variables for each site. Developed equations were then tested in a validation sample; FFM predicted by previously published equations were tested in the total sample.Results:A site-combined equation and site-specific equations were developed. The mean differences between FFM (reference) and FFM predicted by the study-derived equations were between 0.4 and 0.6âeuro0/00kg (that is, 1% difference between the actual and predicted FFM), and the measured and predicted values were highly correlated. The site-combined equation performed slightly better than the site-specific equations and the previously published equations.Conclusions:Relatively small differences exist between BIA equations to estimate FFM, whether study-derived or published equations, although the site-combined equation performed slightly better than others. The study-derived equations provide an important tool for research in these understudied populations.
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Evolutionary processes acting at the expanding margins of a species' range are still poorly understood. Genetic drift is considered prevalent in marginal populations, and the maintenance of genetic diversity during recolonization might seem puzzling. To investigate such processes, a fine-scale investigation of 219 individuals was performed within a population of Biscutella laevigata (Brassicaceae), located at the leading edge of its range. The survey used amplified fragment length polymorphisms (AFLPs). As commonly reported across the whole species distribution range, individual density and genetic diversity decreased along the local axis of recolonization of this expanding population, highlighting the enduring effect of the historical colonization on present-day diversity. The self-incompatibility system of the plant may have prevented local inbreeding in newly found patches and sustained genetic diversity by ensuring gene flow from established populations. Within the more continuously populated region, spatial analysis of genetic structure revealed restricted gene flow among individuals. The distribution of genotypes formed a mosaic of relatively homogenous patches within the continuous population. This pattern could be explained by a history of expansion by long-distance dispersal followed by fine-scale diffusion (that is, a stratified dispersal combination). The secondary contact among expanding patches apparently led to admixture among differentiated genotypes where they met (that is, a reshuffling effect). This type of dynamics could explain the maintenance of genetic diversity during recolonization.
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Background/Aims. Recently, peripheral blood mononuclear cell transcriptome analysis has identified genes that are upregulated in relapsing minimal-change nephrotic syndrome (MCNS). In order to investigate protein expression in peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC) from relapsing MCNS patients, we performed proteomic comparisons of PBMC from patients with MCNS in relapse and controls. METHODS: PBMC from a total of 20 patients were analysed. PBMC were taken from five patients with relapsing MCNS, four in remission, five patients with other glomerular diseases and six controls. Two dimensional electrophoresis was performed and proteome patterns were compared. RESULTS: Automatic heuristic clustering analysis allowed us to pool correctly the gels from the MCNS patients in the relapse and in the control groups. Using hierarchical population matching, nine spots were found to be increased in PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Four spots were identified by mass spectrometry. Three of the four proteins identified (L-plastin, alpha-tropomyosin and annexin III) were cytoskeletal-associated proteins. Using western blot and immunochemistry, L-plastin and alpha-tropomyosin 3 concentrations were found to be enhanced in PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Conclusions. These data indicate that a specific proteomic profile characterizes PBMC from MCNS patients in relapse. Proteins involved in PBMC cytoskeletal rearrangement are increased in relapsing MCNS. We hypothesize that T-cell cytoskeletal rearrangement may play a role in the pathogenesis of MCNS by altering the expression of cell surface receptors and by modifying the interaction of these cells with glomerular cells.
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Salmonid populations of many rivers are rapidly declining. One possible explanation is that habitat fragmentation increases genetic drift and reduces the populations' potential to adapt to changing environmental conditions. We measured the genetic and eco-morphological diversity of brown trout (Salmo trutta) in a Swiss stream system, using multivariate statistics and Bayesian clustering. We found large genetic and phenotypic variation within only 40 km of stream length. Eighty-eight percent of all pairwise F(ST) comparisons and 50% of the population comparisons in body shape were significant. High success rates of population assignment tests confirmed the distinctiveness of populations in both genotype and phenotype. Spatial analysis revealed that divergence increased with waterway distance, the number of weirs, and stretches of poor habitat between sampling locations, but effects of isolation-by-distance and habitat fragmentation could not be fully disentangled. Stocking intensity varied between streams but did not appear to erode genetic diversity within populations. A lack of association between phenotypic and genetic divergence points to a role of local adaptation or phenotypically plastic responses to habitat heterogeneity. Indeed, body shape could be largely explained by topographic stream slope, and variation in overall phenotype matched the flow regimes of the respective habitats.
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Summary The evolution of social structures and breeding systems in animals is a complex process that combines ecological, genetical and social factors. This thesis sheds light on important changes in population genetics, life-history and social behavior that are associated with variation in social structure in ants. The socially polymorphic ant Formica selysi was chosen as the model organism because single- and multiple-queen colonies occur in close proximity within a single large population. The shift from single- to multiple-queen colonies is generally associated with profound changes in dispersal behavior and mode of colony founding. In chapter 1, we examine the genetic consequences of variation in social structure at both the colony and population levels. A detailed microsatellite analysis reveals that both colony types have similar mating systems, with few or no queen turnover. Furthermore, the complete lack of genetic differentiation observed between single- and multiple-queen colonies provides no support to the hypothesis that change in queen number leads to restricted gene flow between social forms. Besides changes in the genetic composition of the colony, the variation in the number of queens per colony is associated with changes in a network of behavioral and life-history traits that have been described as forming a "polygyny syndrome". In chapter 2, we demonstrate that multiple-queen colonies profoundly differ from single-queen ones in terms of size, nest density and lifespan of colonies, in weight of queens produced, as well as in allocation to reproductive individuals relative to workers. These multifaceted changes in life-history traits can provide various fitness benefits to members of multiple-queen colonies. Increasing the number of queens in a colony usually results in a decreased level of aggression towards non-nestmates. The phenotype matching hypothesis predicts that, compared to single-queen colonies, multiple-queen colonies have more diverse genetically-derived cues used for recognition, resulting in a lower ability to discriminate non-nestmates. In sharp contrast to this hypothesis, we show in chapter 3 that single- and multiple-queen colonies exhibit on average similar levels of aggression. Moreover, stronger aggression is recorded between colonies of different social structure than between colonies of the same social structure. Several hypotheses propose that the evolution of multiple-queen colonies is at least partly due to benefits resulting from an increase in colony genetic diversity. The task-efficiency hypothesis holds that genetic variation improves task performance due to a more complete or more sensitive expression of the genetically-based division of labor. In .chapter 4, we evaluate if higher colony genetic diversity increases worker size polymorphism and thus may improve division of labor. We show that despite the fact that worker size has a heritable component, higher levels of genetic diversity do not result in more polymorphic workers. The smaller size and lower polymorphism levels of workers of multiple-queen colonies compared to single-queen ones further indicate that an increase in colony genetic diversity does not increase worker size polymorphism but might improve colony homeostasis. In chapter 5, we provide clear evidence for an ongoing conflict between queens and workers on sex allocation, as predicted by kin selection theory. Our data show that queens of F. selysi strongly influence colony sex allocation by biasing the sex ratio of their eggs. However, there is also evidence that workers eliminated some male brood, resulting in a population sex-investment ratio that is between the queens' and workers' equilibria. Résumé L'évolution des structures sociales et systèmes d'accouplement chez les animaux est un processus complexe combinant à la fois des facteurs écologiques, génétiques et sociaux. Cette thèse met en lumière des changements importants dans la génétique des populations, les traits d'histoire de vie et les comportements sociaux qui sont associés à des variations de structure sociale chez les fourmis. Durant ce travail, nous avons étudié une population de Formica selysi composée à la fois de colonies à une reine et de colonies à plusieurs reines. La transition de colonie à une reine à colonie à plusieurs reines est généralement associée à des changements profonds dans le comportement de dispersion ainsi que le mode de fondation des sociétés. Dans le chapitre 1, nous examinons les conséquences génétiques de la variation de structure sociale tant au niveau de la colonie qu'au niveau de la population. Une analyse détaillée à l'aide de marqueurs microsatellites nous révèle que les deux types de colonies ont des systèmes d'accouplements similaires avec peu ou pas de renouvellement de reines. L'absence totale de différenciation génétique entre les colonies à une et à plusieurs reines n'apporte aucun support à l'hypothèse selon laquelle un changement dans le nombre de reines conduit à un flux de gènes restreint entre les deux formes sociales. A côté de changements dans la composition génétique de la colonie, la variation du nombre de reines dans une colonie est associée à une multitude de changements comportementaux et de traits d'histoire de vie qui ont été décrits comme formant un "syndrome polygyne". Dans le chapitre 2, nous démontrons que les colonies à plusieurs reines diffèrent profondément des colonies à une reine en terme de taille, densité de nids, longévité des colonies, poids des nouvelles reines produites ainsi que dans l'allocation entre les individus reproducteurs et les ouvrières. Ces changements multiples dans les traits d'histoire de vie peuvent apporter des bénéfices variés en terme de fitness aux colonies à plusieurs reines. L'augmentation du nombre de reines dans une colonie est généralement associée à une baisse du degré d'agressivité envers les fourmis étrangères au nid. L'hypothèse "phénotype matching" prédit que les colonies à plusieurs reines ont une plus grande diversité dans les facteurs d'origine génétique utilisés pour la reconnaissance, résultant en une capacité diminuée à discriminer une fourmi étrangère au nid. Contrairement à cette hypothèse, nous montrons dans le chapitre 3 que les colonies à une et à plusieurs reines ont des niveaux d'agressivité similaires. De plus, une agressivité accrue est observée entre colonies de structures sociales différentes comparée à des colonies de même structure sociale. Plusieurs hypothèses ont proposé que l'évolution de colonies ä plusieurs reines soit en partie due aux bénéfices résultant d'une augmentation de la diversité génétique dans la colonie. L'hypothèse "task efficiency" prédit que la diversité génétique améliore l'efficacité à effectuer certaines tâches grâce à une expression plus complète et plus souple d'une division du travail génétiquement déterminée. Nous évaluons dans le chapitre 4 si un accroissement de la diversité génétique augmente le polymorphisme de taille des ouvrières, d'où peut ainsi découler une meilleure division du travail. Nous montrons qu'en dépit du fait que la taille des ouvrières soit un caractère héritable, une forte diversité génétique ne se traduit pas par un plus fort polymorphisme chez les ouvrières. Les ouvrières de colonies à plusieurs reines sont plus petites et moins polymorphes que celles des colonies à une seule reine. Dans le chapitre 5, nous démontrons l'existence d'un conflit ouvert entre reines et ouvrières à propos de l'allocation dans les sexes, comme le prédit la théorie de la sélection de parentèle. Nos données révèlent que les reines de F. selysi influencent fortement l'allocation dans les sexes en biaisant la sexe ratio des oeufs. Cependant, certains indices indiquent que les ouvrières éliminent une partie du couvain mâle, ce qui a pour effet d'avoir un investissement dans les sexes au niveau de la population intermédiaire entre les intérêts des reines et des ouvrières.
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AIMS: To determine whether parental factors earlier in life (parenting, single parent family, parental substance use problem) are associated with patterns of alcohol consumption among young men in Switzerland. METHODS: This analysis of a population based sample from the Cohort Study on Substance Use Risk Factors (C-SURF) included 5,990 young men (mean age 19.51 years), all attending a mandatory recruitment process for the army. These conscripts reported on parental monitoring and rule-setting, parental behaviour and family structure. The alcohol use pattern was assessed through abstention, risky single occasion drinking (RSOD), volume drinking and dependence. Furthermore, the impact of age, family socio-economic status, educational level of the parents, language region and civil status was analysed. RESULTS: A parental substance use problem was positively associated with volume drinking and alcohol dependence in young Swiss men. Active parenting corresponded negatively with RSOD, volume drinking and alcohol dependence. Single parent family was not associated with a different alcohol consumption pattern compared to standard family. CONCLUSION: Parental influences earlier in life such as active parenting (monitoring, rule-setting and knowing the whereabouts) and perceived parental substance use problem are associated with alcohol drinking behaviour in young male adults. Therefore, health professionals should stress the importance of active parenting and parental substance use prevention in alcohol prevention strategies.
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RÉSUMÉ : Elucider les bases moléculaires et cellulaires du fonctionnement des cellules souches s'avère crucial dans la compréhension de l'organisation cellulaire au sein des tissus et des organes ainsi que pour le développement de nouvelles stratégies thérapeutiques en médecine régénérative et en oncologie. Les cellules souches adultes les mieux connues sont celles responsables de l'hématopoïèse, les cellules souches hématopoïétiques (CSH). Durant ces dernières années, la recherche a porté une attention particulière à l'isolation prospective de CSH dérivées de la moelle osseuse de souris en utilisant des marqueurs de surface cellulaire ainsi que des propriétés fonctionnelles alléguées. Par la suite, la capacité fonctionnelle des CSH a été vérifiée classiquement par leur transplantation intraveineuse dans des souris réceptrices conditionnées et par l'analyse de leur aptitude à reconstituer le système hématopoïétique à long terme. Des études récentes suggèrent que la transplantation des cellules directement dans la moelle osseuse pourrait non seulement aboutir à une prise de greffe plus rapide et plus efficace, mais pourrait même aider à l'identification de cellules qui ont certes des propriétés intrinsèques de CSH, mais qui n'ont pas la capacité de trouver leur niche au sein de la moelle osseuse et ont donc échoué dans les analyses classiques de reconstitution. Dans cette étude, nous comparons à deux niveaux la fonction de différents sous-groupes de cellules souches de la moelle osseuse, définis par leur phénotype de surface cellulaire. Premièrement, nous étudions leur capacité à reconstituer des souris létalement irradiées après injection soit intraveineuse soit intrafémorale. Deuxièmement, par analyse cytométrique de flux à 8 couleurs, nous comparons leur activité relative de « side population » (SP) par exclusion du colorant fluorescent Hoechst 33342. Nos résultats préliminaires renforcent en effet l'idée que la transplantation intrafémorale aboutit à une greffe plus rapide et plus efficace. Par contre, en utilisant cette approche, nous n'arrivons pas à identifier des cellules capables de prendre greffe spécifiquement quand elles sont injectées en intrafémorale. Finalement, bien qu'une confirmation in vivo soit encore nécessaire, nous suggérons sur la base de nos analyses cytométriques de flux, que les cellules SP Sca1t~és éie~~ CD48t~és bas sont très enrichies en CSH. Ceci permettrait l'isolation ex vivo de CSH de la moelle osseuse de souris par une stratégie à la fois nouvelle et simple. SUMMARY : Elucidating the molecular and cellular bases of stem cell function is crucial for the understanding of cellular organisation within tissues and organs as well as for the development of new therapeutic strategies in regenerative medicine and oncology. The best-known adult stem cells are those responsible for haematopoiesis, the haematopoietic stem cells (HSCs). In recent years, much effort has been put into the prospective isolation of mouse bone marrow (BM)-derived HSCs using cell-surface markers and alleged functional properties. Upon isolation, the functional capacity of putative HSCs has been classically assessed by intravenous transplantation into conditioned recipient mice and analysis of their ability to reconstitute the haematopoietic system at long-term. It has recently been suggested that transplanting the cells directly into the BM might not only result in more rapid and more effective engraftment, but even help to identify cells that have intrinsic HSC properties but lack the ability to home to their BM niche and have thus failed to succeed in classical reconstitution assays. In this study, we compare the function of different BM cell subsets, as defined by their cell surface phenotype, on two levels. Firstly, we assess their ability to reconstitute lethally irradiated mice, when injected either intravenously or intrafemorally. Secondly, using 8-colour flow cytometric analysis, we compare their relative side population (SP) activity by exclusion of the fluorescent dye Hoechst 33342. Our preliminary results indeed reinforce the idea that intrafemoral transplantation results in faster and more effective engraftment, however, using this approach, we are unable to identify cells that are capable of engrafting specifically when injected intrafemorally. Finally, although in vivo confirmation is still required, we propose, based on the results of our flow cytometric analyses, that SP Scat Very h'9h CD48Very'°W cells should be highly enriched for HSCs. This would allow for a simple new strategy for the isolation of mouse BM HSCs ex vivo.
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OBJECTIVES: Exercise combined with nicotine therapy may help smoking cessation and minimise weight gain after quitting. Low participation in vigorous-intensity physical activity programmes precludes their population-wide applicability. In a randomised controlled trial, we tested whether a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme increases quit rates among sedentary smokers receiving nicotine therapy. METHODS: Participants (n=481; 57% male; mean age, 42.2 years (SD 10.1); mean cigarette consumption, 27 (SD 10.2) per day) were offered a nine-week smoking cessation programme consisting of a weekly 15-minute counselling session and the prescription of nicotine replacement therapy. In addition, participants in the physical activity group (n=229) also took part in a programme of moderate-intensity physical activity implemented at the national level, and offering nine weekly 60-minute sessions of physical activity. To ensure equal contact conditions, participants in the control group (n=252) attended weekly 60-minute health behaviour education sessions unrelated to physical activity. The primary outcome was continuous CO-verified smoking abstinence rates at 1-year follow-up. RESULTS: Continuous smoking abstinence rates were high and similar in the physical activity group and the control group at the end of the intervention (47% versus 46%, p=0.81) and at 1-year follow-up (27% versus 29%, p=0.71). The mean weight gain after one year was 4.4 kg and 6.2 kg among sustained quitters of the physical activity and control groups, respectively (p=0.06). CONCLUSION: Participation in a population-based moderate-intensity physical activity programme for 9 weeks in addition to a comprehensive smoking cessation programme did not significantly increase smoking cessation rates. A non-significant reduction in weight gain was observed among participants who quit smoking in the physical activity group. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov; US National Institutes for Health (available online at http://clinicaltrials.gov/; CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT00521391).
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Background Following the discovery that mutant KRAS is associated with resistance to anti-epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) antibodies, the tumours of patients with metastatic colorectal cancer are now profiled for seven KRAS mutations before receiving cetuximab or panitumumab. However, most patients with KRAS wild-type tumours still do not respond. We studied the effect of other downstream mutations on the efficacy of cetuximab in, to our knowledge, the largest cohort to date of patients with chemotherapy-refractory metastatic colorectal cancer treated with cetuximab plus chemotherapy in the pre-KRAS selection era. Methods 1022 tumour DNA samples (73 from fresh-frozen and 949 from formalin-fixed, paraffin-embedded tissue) from patients treated with cetuximab between 2001 and 2008 were gathered from 11 centres in seven European countries. 773 primary tumour samples had sufficient quality DNA and were included in mutation frequency analyses; mass spectrometry genotyping of tumour samples for KRAS, BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA was done centrally. We analysed objective response, progression-free survival (PFS), and overall survival in molecularly defined subgroups of the 649 chemotherapy-refractory patients treated with cetuximab plus chemotherapy. Findings 40.0% (299/747) of the tumours harboured a KRAS mutation, 14.5% (108/743) harboured a PIK3CA mutation (of which 68.5% [74/108] were located in exon 9 and 20.4% [22/108] in exon 20), 4.7% (36/761) harboured a BRAF mutation, and 2.6% (17/644) harboured an NRAS mutation. KRAS mutants did not derive benefit compared with wild types, with a response rate of 6.7% (17/253) versus 35.8% (126/352; odds ratio [OR] 0.13, 95% CI 0.07-0.22; p<0.0001), a median PFS of 12. weeks versus 24 weeks (hazard ratio [HR] 1 98, 1.66-2.36; p<0.0001), and a median overall survival of 32 weeks versus 50 weeks (1.75, 1.47-2.09; p<0.0001). In KRAS wild types, carriers of BRAF and NRAS mutations had a significantly lower response rate than did BRAF and NRAS wild types, with a response rate of 8.3% (2/24) in carriers of BRAF mutations versus 38.0% in BRAF wild types (124/326; OR 0.15, 95% CI 0.02-0.51; p=0.0012); and 7.7% (1/13) in carriers of NRAS mutations versus 38.1% in NRAS wild types (110/289; OR 0.14, 0.007-0.70; p=0.013). PIK3CA exon 9 mutations had no effect, whereas exon 20 mutations were associated with a worse outcome compared with wild types, with a response rate of 0.0% (0/9) versus 36.8% (121/329; OR 0.00,0.00-0.89; p=0.029), a median PFS of 11.5 weeks versus 24 weeks (HR 2.52, 1.33-4.78; p=0.013), and a median overall survival of 34 weeks versus 51 weeks (3.29, 1.60-6.74; p=0.0057). Multivariate analysis and conditional inference trees confirmed that, if KRAS is not mutated, assessing BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA exon 20 mutations (in that order) gives additional information about outcome. Objective response rates in our series were 24.4% in the unselected population, 36.3% in the KRAS wild-type selected population, and 41.2% in the KRAS, BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA exon 20 wild-type population. Interpretation While confirming the negative effect of KRAS mutations on outcome after cetuximab, we show that BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA,exon 20 mutations are significantly associated with a low response rate. Objective response rates could be improved by additional genotyping of BRAF, NRAS, and PIK3CA exon 20 mutations in a KRAS wild-type population.
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ABSTRACT: BACKGROUND: There is little information regarding the trends in body mass index (BMI) and obesity in the overall Portuguese population, namely if these trends are similar according to educational level. In this study, we assessed the trends in the prevalence of overweight and obesity in the Portuguese population, overall and by educational level. METHODS: Cross-sectional national health interview surveys conducted in 1995-6 (n=38,504), 1998-9 (n=38,688) and 2005-6 (n=25,348). Data were derived from the population and housing census of 1991 and two geographically-based strata were defined. The sampling unit was the house, and all subjects living in the sampling unit were surveyed. Height and weight were self-reported; the effects of gender, age group and educational level were also assessed by self-reported structured questionnaires. Bivariate comparisons were performed using Chi-square or analysis of variance (ANOVA). Trends in BMI levels were assessed by linear regression analysis, while trends in the prevalence of obesity were assessed by logistic regression. RESULTS: Mean (+/-standard deviation) BMI increased from 25.2+/-4.0 in 1995-6 to 25.7+/-4.5 kg/m2 in 2005-6. Prevalence of overweight remained stable (36.1% in 1995-6 and 36.4% in 2005) while prevalence of obesity increased (11.5% in 1995-6 and 15.1% in 2005-6). Similar findings were observed according to age group. Mean age-adjusted BMI increase (expressed in kg/m2/year and 95% confidence interval) was 0.073 (0.062, 0.084), 0.016 (0.000, 0.031) and 0.073 (0.049, 0.098) in men with primary, secondary and university levels, respectively; the corresponding values in women were 0.085 (0.073, 0.097), 0.052 (0.035, 0.069) and 0.062 (0.038, 0.084). Relative to 1995-6, obesity rates increased by 48%, 41% and 59% in men and by 40%, 75% and 177% in women with primary, secondary and university levels, respectively. The corresponding values for overweight were 6%, 1% and 23% in men and 5%, 7% and 65% in women. CONCLUSION: Between 1995 and 2005, obesity increased while overweight remained stable in the adult Portuguese population. Although higher rates were found among lesser educated subjects, the strong increase in BMI and obesity levels in highly educated subjects is of concern.
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Background In a previous study, the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer (EORTC) reported a scoring system to predict survival of patients with low-grade gliomas (LGGs). A major issue in the diagnosis of brain tumors is the lack of agreement among pathologists. New models in patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review are needed. Methods Data from 339 EORTC patients with LGGs diagnosed by central pathology review were used to develop new prognostic models for progression-free survival (PFS) and overall survival (OS). Data from 450 patients with centrally diagnosed LGGs recruited into 2 large studies conducted by North American cooperative groups were used to validate the models. Results Both PFS and OS were negatively influenced by the presence of baseline neurological deficits, a shorter time since first symptoms (<30 wk), an astrocytic tumor type, and tumors larger than 5 cm in diameter. Early irradiation improved PFS but not OS. Three risk groups have been identified (low, intermediate, and high) and validated. Conclusions We have developed new prognostic models in a more homogeneous LGG population diagnosed by central pathology review. This population better fits with modern practice, where patients are enrolled in clinical trials based on central or panel pathology review. We could validate the models in a large, external, and independent dataset. The models can divide LGG patients into 3 risk groups and provide reliable individual survival predictions. Inclusion of other clinical and molecular factors might still improve models' predictions.
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Abstract : Background and aims: Because of the changing epidemiology of Inflammatory Bowel Diseases (IBD), we set out to characterize the population-based prevalence of Crohn's Disease (CD) and Ulcerative Colitis (UC) in a defined population of Switzerland. Methods: Adult IBD patients were identified by across-matched review of histological, hospital and gastroenterologist files throughout a geographical defined population (Canton of Vaud). Demographic factors statistically significantly associated with prevalence were evaluated using a stepwise Poisson regression analysis. Results were compared to IBD prevalence rates in other population-based studies and time trends were performed, based on a systematic literature review. Results: Age and sex-adjusted prevalence rates were 205.7 IBD (100.7 CD and 105.0 UC) cases per 10,5 inhabitants. Among 1016 IBD patients (519 CD and 497 UC), females outnumbered males in CD (p<0.001), but males were more represented in elderly UC patients (p=0.008). Thus, being a mate was statistically associated with UC (Relative Risk (RR) 1.25; p=0.013), whereas being a female was associated with CD (RR 1.27; p=0.007). Living in an urban zone was associated with both CD and UC (RR 1.49; p<0.001, 1.63; p<0.001, respectively). From 1960 to 2005, increases in UC and CD prevalences of 2.4% (95%CI, 2.1%-2.8%; p<0.001) and 3.6% (95%CI, 3.1%-4.1%; p<0.001) per annum were found in industrialised countries. Résumé de synthèse : 1. Introduction : Étant donné l'évolution constante des donnés épidémiologiques sur les maladies inflammatoires chroniques de l'intestin (MICI), nous avons recherché à caractériser la prévalence de la maladie de Crohn (MC) et de la colite ulcéreuse (CU) dans une population définie de la Suisse. 2. Méthodes : Nous avons identifiés, dans une population délimitée au Canton de Vaud, les patients adultes atteints de maladies inflammatoires de l'intestin en regroupant les données histologiques et médicales disponibles à l'hôpital et au cabinet du gastroentérologue. Pour nos analyses, nous avons utilisé la méthode de la régression de Poisson afin d'identifier les facteurs démographiques significativement liés avec la prévalence. Ensuite, nos résultats ont été comparés aux valeurs de prévalence des MICI issues d'autres études de population (revue systématique de la littérature) afin de dégager les tendances de leur évolution au cours du temps. 3. Résultats : La prévalence des MICI pondérée selon l'âge et le sexe était de 205.7 cas (100.7 MC et 105.0 CU) pour 10,5 habitants. Parmi les 1016 patients identifiés (519 MC et 497 CU), les femmes étaient plus représentées que les hommes dans la MC (P<0.0001), alors que la proportion d'hommes dépassait celle des femmes chez les patients âgés atteints de CU (p=0.008). Par conséquent, le fait d'être un homme était statistiquement associé à la CU (Risque relatif (RR) 1.25, p=0.013), et celui d'être une femme était associé à la MC (RR 1.27 ; p=0.007). L'étude a également montré qu'habiter en zone urbaine était significativement associé avec les deux types de MICI (RR (MC) 1.49; p<0.001, (CU) 1.63; p<0.001). Enfin, il a été mis en évidence dans les pays industrialisés, entre 1960 et 2005, une augmentation annuelle des taux de prévalences de 2.4% (95% IC, 2.1 %-2.8% ; p<0.001) pour la MC et de 3.6% (95% IC, 3.1 %-4.1 % ; p<0.001) pour la CU. 4. Conclusion : L'extrapolation de nos données au niveau Suisse fournit une estimation de 12 000 cas de MICI pour le pays soit 1 cas pour 500 habitants. Notre étude contribue également à démontrer une augmentation de la prévalence des MICI en Europe.
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The breeding system of social organisms affects many important aspects of social life. Some species vary greatly in the number of breeders per group, but the mechanisms and selective pressures contributing to the maintenance of this polymorphism in social structure remain poorly understood. Here, we take advantage of a genetic dataset that spans 15 years to investigate the dynamics of colony queen number within a socially polymorphic ant species. Our study population of Formica selysi has single- and multiple-queen colonies. We found that the social structure of this species is somewhat flexible: on average, each year 3.2% of the single-queen colonies became polygynous, and conversely 1.4% of the multiple-queen colonies became monogynous. The annualized queen replacement rates were 10.3% and 11.9% for single- and multiple-queen colonies, respectively. New queens were often but not always related to previous colony members. At the population level, the social polymorphism appeared stable. There was no genetic differentiation between single- and multiple-queen colonies at eight microsatellite loci, suggesting ongoing gene flow between social forms. Overall, the regular and bidirectional changes in queen number indicate that social structure is a labile trait in F. selysi, with neither form being favored within a time-frame of 15 years.
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BACKGROUND: As a consequence of the increase in life expectancy, hepatobiliary surgeons have to deal with an emerging aged population. We aimed to analyze the liver function and outcome after right hepatectomy (RH) in patients over 70 years of age. METHODS: From January 2006 to December 2009, we prospectively collected data of 207 consecutive elective hepatectomies. In patients who had RH, cardiac risk was assessed by a dedicated preoperative workup. Liver failure (LF) was defined by the "fifty-fifty" criteria at postoperative day 5 (POD) and morbidity by the Clavien-Dindo classification. Liver function tests (LFTs) and short-term outcome were retrospectively analyzed in patients over (elderly group, EG) and younger (young group, YG) than 70 years of age. RESULTS: Eighty-seven consecutive RH were performed during the study period. Indication for surgery included 90 % malignancy in 47 % of patients requiring preoperative chemotherapy. ASA grade > 2 (44 vs. 16 %, p = 0.027), ischemic heart disease (17 vs. 5 %, p = 0.076), and preoperative cardiac failure (26 vs. 2 %, p < 0.001) were more frequent in the EG (n = 23) than in the YG (n = 64). Both groups were similar regarding rates of normal liver parenchyma, chemotherapy and intraoperative parameters. The overall morbidity rates were comparable, but the serious complication (grades III-V) rate was relatively higher in the EG (39 vs. 25 %, p = 0.199), particularly in patients with diabetes mellitus (100 vs. 29 %, p = 0.04) and those who had additional nonhepatic surgery (67 vs. 35 %, p = 0.110) and transfusions (44 vs. 30 %, p = 0.523). The 90-day mortality rate was similar (9 % in the EG vs. 3 % in the YG, p = 0.28) and was related to heart failure in the EG. LFTs showed a similar trend from POD 1 to 8, and patients ≥70 years of age had no liver failure. CONCLUSIONS: Age ≥70 years alone is not a contraindication to RH. However, major morbidity is particularly higher in the elderly with diabetes. This high-risk group should be closely monitored in the postoperative course. Liver function is not altered in the elderly patient after RH.