Probabilistic graphical models to deal with age estimation of living persons

Due to the rise of criminal, civil and administrative judicial situations involving people lacking valid identity documents, age estimation of living persons has become an important operational procedure for numerous forensic and medicolegal services worldwide. The chronological age of a given person is generally estimated from the observed degree of maturity of some selected physical attributes by means of statistical methods. However, their application in the forensic framework suffers from some conceptual and practical drawbacks, as recently claimed in the specialised literature. The aim of this paper is therefore to offer an alternative solution for overcoming these limits, by reiterating the utility of a probabilistic Bayesian approach for age estimation. This approach allows one to deal in a transparent way with the uncertainty surrounding the age estimation process and to produce all the relevant information in the form of posterior probability distribution about the chronological age of the person under investigation. Furthermore, this probability distribution can also be used for evaluating in a coherent way the possibility that the examined individual is younger or older than a given legal age threshold having a particular legal interest. The main novelty introduced by this work is the development of a probabilistic graphical model, i.e. a Bayesian network, for dealing with the problem at hand. The use of this kind of probabilistic tool can significantly facilitate the application of the proposed methodology: examples are presented based on data related to the ossification status of the medial clavicular epiphysis. The reliability and the advantages of this probabilistic tool are presented and discussed.

Mouse Model of Respiratory Tract Infection Induced by Waddlia chondrophila.

Waddlia chondrophila, an obligate intracellular bacterium belonging to the Chlamydiales order, is considered as an emerging pathogen. Some clinical studies highlighted a possible role of W. chondrophila in bronchiolitis, pneumonia and miscarriage. This pathogenic potential is further supported by the ability of W. chondrophila to infect and replicate within human pneumocytes, macrophages and endometrial cells. Considering that W. chondrophila might be a causative agent of respiratory tract infection, we developed a mouse model of respiratory tract infection to get insight into the pathogenesis of W. chondrophila. Following intranasal inoculation of 2 x 108 W. chondrophila, mice lost up to 40% of their body weight, and succumbed rapidly from infection with a death rate reaching 50% at day 4 post-inoculation. Bacterial loads, estimated by qPCR, increased from day 0 to day 3 post-infection and decreased thereafter in surviving mice. Bacterial growth was confirmed by detecting dividing bacteria using electron microscopy, and living bacteria were isolated from lungs 14 days post-infection. Immunohistochemistry and histopathology of infected lungs revealed the presence of bacteria associated with pneumonia characterized by an important multifocal inflammation. The high inflammatory score in the lungs was associated with the presence of pro-inflammatory cytokines in both serum and lungs at day 3 post-infection. This animal model supports the role of W. chondrophila as an agent of respiratory tract infection, and will help understanding the pathogenesis of this strict intracellular bacterium.

A cognitive hierarchy model of behavior in the action commitment game

We apply the cognitive hierarchy model of Camerer et al. (Q J Econ 119(3):861-898, 2004)-where players have different levels of reasoning-to Huck et al. (Games Econ Behav 38:240-264, 2002) discrete version of Hamilton and Slutsky (Games Econ Behav 2:29-46, 1990) action commitment game-a duopoly with endogenous timing of entry. We show that, for an empirically reasonable average number of thinking steps, the model rules out Stackelberg equilibria, generates Cournot outcomes including delay, and outcomes where the first mover commits to a quantity higher than Cournot but lower than Stackelberg leader. We show that a cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses can explain the most important features of the experimental data on the action commitment game in (2002). In order to gauge the success of the model in fitting the data, we compare it to a noisy Nash model. We find that the cognitive hierarchy model with quantal responses fits the data better than the noisy Nash model.