Cardiovascular Risk Prediction with Ultrasound

This paper addresses primary care physicians, cardiologists, internists, angiologists and doctors desirous of improving vascular risk prediction in primary care. Many cardiovascular risk factors act aggressively on the arterial wall and result in atherosclerosis and atherothrombosis. Cardiovascular prognosis derived from ultrasound imaging is, however, excellent in subjects without formation of intimal thickening or atheromas. Since ultrasound visualises the arterial wall directly, the information derived from the arterial wall may add independent incremental information to the knowledge of risk derived from global risk assessment. This paper provides an overview on plaque imaging for vascular risk prediction in two parts: Part 1: Carotid IMT is frequently used as a surrogate marker for outcome in intervention studies addressing rather large cohorts of subjects. Carotid IMT as a risk prediction tool for the prevention of acute myocardial infarction and stroke has been extensively studied in many patients since 1987, and has yielded incremental hazard ratios for these cardiovascular events independently of established cardiovascular risk factors. However, carotid IMT measurements are not used uniformly and therefore still lack widely accepted standardisation. Hence, at an individual, practicebased level, carotid IMT is not recommended as a risk assessment tool. The total plaque area of the carotid arteries (TPA) is a measure of the global plaque burden within both carotid arteries. It was recently shown in a large Norwegian cohort involving over 6000 subjects that TPA is a very good predictor for future myocardial infarction in women with an area under the curve (AUC) using a receiver operating curves (ROC) value of 0.73 (in men: 0.63). Further, the AUC for risk prediction is high both for vascular death in a vascular prevention clinic group (AUC 0.77) and fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction in a true primary care group (AUC 0.79). Since TPA has acceptable reproducibility, allows calculation of posttest risk and is easily obtained at low cost, this risk assessment tool may come in for more widespread use in the future and also serve as a tool for atherosclerosis tracking and guidance for intensity of preventive therapy. However, more studies with TPA are needed. Part 2: Carotid and femoral plaque formation as detected by ultrasound offers a global view of the extent of atherosclerosis. Several prospective cohort studies have shown that cardiovascular risk prediction is greater for plaques than for carotid IMT. The number of arterial beds affected by significant atheromas may simply be added numerically to derive additional information on the risk of vascular events. A new atherosclerosis burden score (ABS) simply calculates the sum of carotid and femoral plaques encountered during ultrasound scanning. ABS correlates well and independently with the presence of coronary atherosclerosis and stenosis as measured by invasive coronary angiogram. However, the prognostic power of ABS as an independent marker of risk still needs to be elucidated in prospective studies. In summary, the large number of ways to measure atherosclerosis and related changes in human arteries by ultrasound indicates that this technology is not yet sufficiently perfected and needs more standardisation and workup on clearly defined outcome studies before it can be recommended as a practice-based additional risk modifier.

A comparison of Bayesian and frequentist approaches to incorporating external information for the prediction of prostate cancer risk.

We present the most comprehensive comparison to date of the predictive benefit of genetics in addition to currently used clinical variables, using genotype data for 33 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in 1,547 Caucasian men from the placebo arm of the REduction by DUtasteride of prostate Cancer Events (REDUCE®) trial. Moreover, we conducted a detailed comparison of three techniques for incorporating genetics into clinical risk prediction. The first method was a standard logistic regression model, which included separate terms for the clinical covariates and for each of the genetic markers. This approach ignores a substantial amount of external information concerning effect sizes for these Genome Wide Association Study (GWAS)-replicated SNPs. The second and third methods investigated two possible approaches to incorporating meta-analysed external SNP effect estimates - one via a weighted PCa 'risk' score based solely on the meta analysis estimates, and the other incorporating both the current and prior data via informative priors in a Bayesian logistic regression model. All methods demonstrated a slight improvement in predictive performance upon incorporation of genetics. The two methods that incorporated external information showed the greatest receiver-operating-characteristic AUCs increase from 0.61 to 0.64. The value of our methods comparison is likely to lie in observations of performance similarities, rather than difference, between three approaches of very different resource requirements. The two methods that included external information performed best, but only marginally despite substantial differences in complexity.

Statistical methods for river runoff prediction

Methods used to analyze one type of nonstationary stochastic processes?the periodically correlated process?are considered. Two methods of one-step-forward prediction of periodically correlated time series are examined. One-step-forward predictions made in accordance with an autoregression model and a model of an artificial neural network with one latent neuron layer and with an adaptation mechanism of network parameters in a moving time window were compared in terms of efficiency. The comparison showed that, in the case of prediction for one time step for time series of mean monthly water discharge, the simpler autoregression model is more efficient.

Prediction of hemodynamic severity of coarctation by magnetic resonance imaging.

A published formula containing minimal aortic cross-sectional area and the flow deceleration pattern in the descending aorta obtained by cardiovascular magnetic resonance predicts significant coarctation of the aorta (CoA). However, the existing formula is complicated to use in clinical practice and has not been externally validated. Consequently, its clinical utility has been limited. The aim of this study was to derive a simple and clinically practical algorithm to predict severe CoA from data obtained by cardiovascular magnetic resonance. Seventy-nine consecutive patients who underwent cardiovascular magnetic resonance and cardiac catheterization for the evaluation of native or recurrent CoA at Children's Hospital Boston (n = 30) and the University of California, San Francisco (n = 49), were retrospectively reviewed. The published formula derived from data obtained at Children's Hospital Boston was first validated from data obtained at the University of California, San Francisco. Next, pooled data from the 2 institutions were analyzed, and a refined model was created using logistic regression methods. Finally, recursive partitioning was used to develop a clinically practical prediction tree to predict transcatheter systolic pressure gradient ≥ 20 mm Hg. Severe CoA was present in 48 patients (61%). Indexed minimal aortic cross-sectional area and heart rate-corrected flow deceleration time in the descending aorta were independent predictors of CoA gradient ≥ 20 mm Hg (p <0.01 for both). A prediction tree combining these variables reached a sensitivity and specificity of 90% and 76%, respectively. In conclusion, the presented prediction tree on the basis of cutoff values is easy to use and may help guide the management of patients investigated for CoA.

Spatial prediction of monthly wind speeds in complex terrain with adaptive general regression neural networks

This paper presents the general regression neural networks (GRNN) as a nonlinear regression method for the interpolation of monthly wind speeds in complex Alpine orography. GRNN is trained using data coming from Swiss meteorological networks to learn the statistical relationship between topographic features and wind speed. The terrain convexity, slope and exposure are considered by extracting features from the digital elevation model at different spatial scales using specialised convolution filters. A database of gridded monthly wind speeds is then constructed by applying GRNN in prediction mode during the period 1968-2008. This study demonstrates that using topographic features as inputs in GRNN significantly reduces cross-validation errors with respect to low-dimensional models integrating only geographical coordinates and terrain height for the interpolation of wind speed. The spatial predictability of wind speed is found to be lower in summer than in winter due to more complex and weaker wind-topography relationships. The relevance of these relationships is studied using an adaptive version of the GRNN algorithm which allows to select the useful terrain features by eliminating the noisy ones. This research provides a framework for extending the low-dimensional interpolation models to high-dimensional spaces by integrating additional features accounting for the topographic conditions at multiple spatial scales. Copyright (c) 2012 Royal Meteorological Society.

Early prediction of response to sunitinib after imatinib failure by 18F-fluorodeoxyglucose positron emission tomography in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumor.

PURPOSE: Positron emission tomography with (18)F-fluorodeoxyglucose (FDG-PET) was used to evaluate treatment response in patients with gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) after administration of sunitinib, a multitargeted tyrosine kinase inhibitor, after imatinib failure. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Tumor metabolism was assessed with FDG-PET before and after the first 4 weeks of sunitinib therapy in 23 patients who received one to 12 cycles of sunitinib therapy (4 weeks of 50 mg/d, 2 weeks off). Treatment response was expressed as the percent change in maximal standardized uptake values (SUV). The primary end point of time to tumor progression was compared with early PET results on the basis of traditional Response Evaluation Criteria in Solid Tumors (RECIST) criteria. RESULTS: Progression-free survival (PFS) was correlated with early FDG-PET metabolic response (P < .0001). Using -25% and +25% thresholds for SUV variations from baseline, early FDG-PET response was stratified in metabolic partial response, metabolically stable disease, or metabolically progressive disease; median PFS rates were 29, 16, and 4 weeks, respectively. Similarly, when a single FDG-PET positive/negative was considered after 4 weeks of sunitinib, the median PFS was 29 weeks for SUVs less than 8 g/mL versus 4 weeks for SUVs of 8 g/mL or greater (P < .0001). None of the patients with metabolically progressive disease subsequently responded according to RECIST criteria. Multivariate analysis showed shorter PFS in patients who had higher residual SUVs (P < .0001), primary resistance to imatinib (P = .024), or nongastric GIST (P = .002), regardless of the mutational status of the KIT and PDGFRA genes. CONCLUSION: Week 4 FDG-PET is useful for early assessment of treatment response and for the prediction of clinical outcome. Thus, it offers opportunities to individualize and optimize patient therapy.

Prediction of plant species distributions across six millennia.

The usefulness of species distribution models (SDMs) in predicting impacts of climate change on biodiversity is difficult to assess because changes in species ranges may take decades or centuries to occur. One alternative way to evaluate the predictive ability of SDMs across time is to compare their predictions with data on past species distributions. We use data on plant distributions, fossil pollen and current and mid-Holocene climate to test the ability of SDMs to predict past climate-change impacts. We find that species showing little change in the estimated position of their realized niche, with resulting good model performance, tend to be dominant competitors for light. Different mechanisms appear to be responsible for among-species differences in model performance. Confidence in predictions of the impacts of climate change could be improved by selecting species with characteristics that suggest little change is expected in the relationships between species occurrence and climate patterns.

Growth mechanisms and timing of emplacement of a vertically layered mafic intrusion in the feeder zone of an ocean island volcano (Fuerteventura, Canary islands)

Résumé pour le grand public L'île de Fuerteventura (Canaries) offre l'occasion rare d'observer les racines d'un volcan océanique édifié il y a 25 à 30 millions d'années et complètement érodé. On y voit de nombreux petits plutons de forme et composition variées, témoignant d'autant d'épisodes de l'activité magmatique. L'un de ces plutons, appelé PX1, présente une structure inhabituelle formée d'une alternance de bandes verticales d'épaisseur métrique à hectométrique de roches sombres de composition pyroxénilique ou gabbroïque. Les pyroxénites résultent clairement de l'accumulation de cristaux de pyroxènes et non de la simple solidification d'un magma? Se pose dès lors la question de la nature du processus qui a conduit à l'accumulation verticale de niveaux concentrés en pyroxènes. En effet, les litages pyroxénitiques classiques sont subhorizontaux, car ils résultent de l'accumulation gravitaire des cristaux séparés du magma dont ils cristalli¬sent par sédimentation. Cette étude vise à identifier et comprendre les mécanismes qui ont engendré ce Iitage minéralogique vertical et l'im¬portant volume de ces faciès cumulatifs. Nous nous sommes également intéressés aux conditions de pression et de température régnant au moment de la mise en place du pluton, ainsi qu'à sa durée de vie et à sa vitesse de refroidis¬sement. Enfin une approche géochimique nous a permis de préciser la nature de la source mantellique des magmas liés à cette activité magmatique. PX1 est en réalité un complexe filonien formé à des conditions de pression et de température de 1-2 kbar et 1050- 1100°C; sa construction a nécessité au moins 150 km3 de magma. L'alternance d'horizons gabbroïques et pyroxéniti¬ques représente des injections successives de magma sous la forme de filons verticaux, mis en place dans un contexte régional en extension. L'étude des orientations des minéraux dans ces faciès révèle que les horizons gabbroïques enregistrent l'extension régionale, alors que les pyroxénites sont générées par une compaction au sein du pluton. Ceci suggère que le régime des contraintes, qui était extensif lors de l'initiation de la mise en place de PX1, est pério¬diquement devenu compressif au sein même du pluton. Cette compression serait liée à des cycles de mise en place où la vitesse de croissance du pluton dépassait celle de l'extension régionale. La différenciation observée au sein de chaque horizon, depuis des pyroxénites riches en olivine jusqu'à des pyroxé¬nites à plagioclase interstitiel et des gabbros, ainsi que la composition géochimique des minéraux qui les constituent suggèrent que chaque filon vertical s'est mis en place à partir d'un magma de composition identique, puis a évolué indépendamment des autres en fonction du régime thermique et du régime des contraintes local. Lorsque le magma en train de cristalliser s'est trouvé en compression, le liquide résiduel a été séparé des cristaux déjà formés et extrait du système, laissant derrière lui une accumulation de cristaux dont la nature et les proportions dépendaient du stade de cristallisation atteint par le magma au moment de l'extraction. Ainsi, les niveaux de pyroxénites à olivine (premier minéral à cristalliser) ont été formés lorsque le magma correspondant était encore peu cristallisé; à l'inverse, les py¬roxénites riches en plagioclase (minéral plus tardif dans la séquence de cristallisation) et certains gabbros à caractère cumulatif résultent d'une compression tardive dans le processus de cristallisation du filon concerné. Les liquides résiduels extraits des niveaux pyroxénitiques sont rarement observés dans PX1, certaines poches et filonets de com¬position anorthositique pourraient en être les témoins. L'essentiel de ces liquides a probablement gagné des niveaux supérieurs du pluton, voire la surface du volcan. L'origine du régime compressif périodique affectant les filons en voie de cristallisation est attribuée aux injections suivantes de magma au sein du pluton, qui se sont succédées à un rythme plus rapide que la vitesse de consolidation des filons. Des datations U/Pb de haute précision sur des cristaux de zircon et de baddeleyite ainsi que40Ar/39Ar sur des cris¬taux d'amphibole révèlent une initiation de la mise en place de PX1 il y a 22.1 ± 0,7 Ma; celle-ci a duré quelque 0,48 ± 0,22 à 0,52 ± 0,29 Ma. Ce laps de temps est compatible avec celui nécessaire à la cristallisation des filons individuels, qui va de moins d'une année lors de l'initiation du magmatisme à 5 ans lors du maximum d'activité de PX1. La présence de cristaux résorbés enregistrant une cristallisation complexe suggère l'existence d'une chambre mag¬matique convective sous-jacente à PX1 et périodiquement rechargée. Les compositions isotopiques des roches étu¬diées révèlent une source mantellique profonde de type point chaud avec une contribution du manteau lithosphéri- que métasomatisé présent sous les îles Canaries. Résumé L'intrusion mafique Miocène PX1 fait partie du soubassement superficiel (0.15-0.2 GPa, 1100 °Q d'un volcan d'île océanique. La particularité de ce pluton est l'existence d'alternances d'unités de gabbros et de pyroxénites qui met¬tent en évidence un litage magmatique vertical (NNE-SSW). Les horizons gabbroiques et pyroxénitiques sont constitués d'unités de différenciation métriques qui suggèrent tine mise en place par injections périodiques de filons verticaux de magma formant un complexe filonien. Chaque filon vertical a subi une différenciation parallèle à un front de solidification sub-vertical parallèle aux bords du filon. Les pyroxénites résultent du fractionnement et de l'accumulation d'olivine ± clinopyroxene ± plagioclase à partir d'un magma basaltique faiblement alcalin et sont interprétées comme étant des imités de différenciation tronquées dont le liquide interstitiel a été extrait par compaction. L'orientation préférentielle des clinopyroxènes dans ces pyroxe- nites (obtenues par analyse EBSD et micro-tomographique) révèle une composante de cisaillement simple dans la genèse de ces roches, ce qui confirme cette interprétation. La compaction des pyroxénites est probablement causée par a mise en place de filons de magma suivants. Le liquide interstitiel expulsé est probablement par ces derniers. Les clinopyroxènes des gabbros, montrent une composante de cisaillement pure suggérant qu'ils sont affectés par une déformation syn-magmatique parallèle aux zones de cisaillement NNE-SSW observées autour de PX1 et liées au contexte tectonique Miocène d'extension régionale. Ceci suggère que les gabbros sont liés à des taux de mise en place faibles à la fin de cycles d'activité magmatique et sont peu ou pas affectés par la compaction. L'initiation et la géométrie de PX1 sont donc contrôlées par le contexte tectonique régional d'extension alors que les taux et les volumes de magma dépendent de facteurs liés à la source. Des taux d'injection élevés résultent probable¬ment en une croissance du pluton supérieure à la place crée par cette extension. Dans ce cas de figure, la propagation des nouveaux dykes et l'inaptitude du magma à circuler à travers les anciens dykes cristallisés pourrait causer une augmentation de la pression non-lithostatique sur ces derniers, exprimée par un cisaillement simple et l'expulsion du liquide interstitiel qu'ils contiennent (documenté par les zones de collecte anorthositiques). Les compositions en éléments majeurs et traces des gabbros et pyroxenites de PX1 sont globalement homogènes et dépendent de la nature cumulative des échantillons. Cependant, de petites variations des concentrations en éléments traces ainsi que les teneurs en éléments traces des bordures de clinopyroxenes suggèrent que ces derniers ont subi un processus de rééquilibrage et de cristallisation in situ. L'homogénéité des compositions chimiques des échantillons, ainsi que la présence de grains de clinopyroxene résorbés suggère que le complexe filonien PX1 s'est mis en place au dessus d'une chambre magmatique périodiquement rechargée dans laquelle la convection est efficace. Chaque filon est donc issu d'un même magma, mais a subi une différenciation par cristallisation in situ (jusqu'à 70% de fraction¬nement) indépendamment des autres. Dans ces filons cristallisés, les minéraux cumulatifs subissent un rééquilibrage partiel avec les liquide interstitiel avant que ce dernier ne soit expulsé lors de la compaction (mettant ainsi un terme à la différenciation). Ce modèle de mise en place signifie qu'un minimum de 150Km3 de magma est nécessaire à la genèse de PX1, une partie de ce volume ayant été émis par le 'Central Volcanic Complex' de Fuerteventura. Les rapports isotopiques radiogéniques mesurés révèlent la contribution de trois pôles mantelliques dans la genèse du magma formant PX1. Le mélange de ces pôles HIMU, DMM et EM1 refléterai l'interaction du point chaud Cana¬rien avec un manteau lithosphérique hétérogène métasomatisé. Les petites variations de ces rapports et des teneurs en éléments traces au sein des faciès pourrait refléter des taux de fusion partielle variable de la source, résultant en un échantillonnage variable du manteau lithosphérique métasomatisé lors de son interaction avec le point chaud. Des datations U/Pb de haute précision (TIMS) sur des cristaux de zircon et de baddeleyite extraits de gabbros de PX1 révèlent que l'initiation de la cristallisation du magma a eu lieu il y a 22.10±0.07 Ma et que l'activité magmatique a duré un minimum de 0.48 à 0.52 Ma. Des âges 40Ar/39Ar obtenus sur amphibole sont de 21.9 ± 0.6 à 21.8 ± 0.3 Ma, identiques aux âges U/Pb. La combinaison de ces méthodes de datations, suggère que le temps maximum nécessaire à PX1 pour se refroidir en dessous de la température de fermeture de l'amphibole est de 0.8Ma. Ceci signifie que la durée de vie de PX1 est de 520 000 à 800 000 ans. La coexistence de cristaux de baddeleyite et de zircon dans un gabbro est attribuée à son interaction avec un fluide riche en C02 relâché par les carbonatites encaissantes lors du métamorphisme de contact généré par la mise en place de PX1 environ 160 000 ans après le début de sa mise en place. Les durées de vie obtenue sont en accord avec le modèle de mise en place suggérant une durée de cristallisation poux chaque filon allant de 1 an à 5 ans. Abstract The Miocene PX1 gabbro-pyroxenite intrusion (Fuerteventura, Canary Islands), is interpreted as the shallow-level feeder-zone (0.15-0.2 GPa and 1100-1120°C), to an ocean island volcano. The particularity of PX1 is that it displays a NNE-SSW trending vertical magmatic banding expressed by alternating gabbro and pyroxeriite sequences. The gabbro and pyroxenite sequences consist of metre-thick differentiation units, which suggest emplacement by pe¬riodic injection of magma pulses as vertical dykes that amalgamated, similarly to a sub-volcanic sheeted dyke com¬plex. Individual dykes underwent internal differentiation following a solidification front (favoured by a significant lateral/horizontal thermal gradient) parallel to the dyke edges. Pyroxenitic layers result from the fractionation and accumulation of clinopyroxene ± olivine ± plagioclase crystals from a mildly alkaline basaltic liquid and are interpre¬ted as truncated differentiation sequences, from which residual melts were extracted by compaction. Clinopyroxene mineral orientation in pyroxenites (evidenced by EBSD and micro X-ray tomography analysis) display a marked pure shear component, supporting this interpretation. Compaction and squeezing of the crystal mush is ascribed to the incoming and inflating magma pulses. The resulting expelled interstitial liquid was likely collected and erupted along with the magma flowing through the newly injected dykes. Gabbro sequences represent crystallised coalesced magma batches, emplaced at lower rates at the end of eruptive cycles, and underwent minor melt extraction as evi¬denced by clinopyroxene orientations that record a simple shear component suggesting syn-magmatic deformation parallel to observed NNF.-SSW trending shear-zones induced by the regional tensional Miocene stress-field. The initiation and geometry of PX1 is controlled by the regional extensional tectonic regime whereas rates and vo¬lumes of magma depend on source-related factors. High injection rates are likely to induce intrusion growth rates larger than could be accommodated by the regional extension. In this case, dyke tip geometry and the inability of magma to circulate through previously emplaced and crystallised dykes could result in an increase of non-lithostatic pressure on previously emplaced mushy dyke walls; generating strong pure-shear compaction and interstitial melt expulsion within the feeder-zone as recorded by the cumulitic pyroxenite bands and anorthositic collection zones. The whole-rock major and trace-element chemistry of PX1 gabbros and pyroxenites is globally homogeneous and controlled by the cumulate nature of the samples (i.e. on the modal proportions of olivine, pyroxene, plagioclase and oxides). However, small variations of whole-rock trace-element contents as well as trace-element contents of clinopyroxene rims suggest that in-situ re-equilibration and crystallisation has occurred. Additionally, the global homogeneity and presence of complex zoning of rare resorbed clinopyroxene crystals suggest that the PX1 feeder- zone overlies a periodically replenished and efficiently mixed magma chamber. Each individual dyke of magma thus originated from a compositionally constant mildly alkaline magma and differentiated independently from the others reaching up to 70% fractionation. Following dyke arrest these are affected by interaction with the trapped interstitial liquid prior to its compaction-linked expulsion (thus stopping the differentiation process). This emplacement model implies that minimum amount of approximately 150 km3 of magma is needed to generate PX1, part of it having been erupted through the overlying Central Volcanic Complex of Fuerteventura. The radiogenic isotope ratios of PX1 samples reveal the contribution on three end-members during magma genesis. This mixing of the H1MU, EMI and DMM end-members could reflect the interaction of the deep-seated Canarian mantle plume with a heterogeneous metasomatic and sepentininsed lithospheric mantle. Additionally, the observed trace-element and isotopic variations within the same fades groups could reflect varying degrees of partial melting of the source region, thus tapping more or less large areas of the metasomatised lithospheric mantle during interac¬tion with the plume. High precision ID-TIMS U/Pb zircon and baddeleyite ages from the PX1 gabbro samples, indicate initiation of magma crystallisation at 22.10 ± 0.07 Ma. The magmatic activity lasted a minimum of 0.48 to 0.52 Ma. 40Ar/39Ar amphibole ages are of 21.9 ± 0.6 to 21.8 ± 0.3, identical within errors to the U/Pb ages. The combination of the 40Ar/39Ar and U/Pb datasets imply that the maximum amount of time PX1 took to cool below amphibole Tc is 0.8 Ma, suggesting PX1 lifetime of 520 000 to 800 000 years. On top of this, the coexistence of baddeleyite and zircon in a single sample is ascribed to the interaction of PX1 with C02-rich carbonatite-derived fluids released from the host-rock carbonatites during contact metamorphism 160 000 years after PX1 initiation. These ages are in agreement with the emplacement model, implying a crystallisation time of less than 1 to 5 years for individual dykes.

Prediction of hip fracture risk by quantitative ultrasound in more than 7000 Swiss women > or =70 years of age: comparison of three technologically different bone ultrasound devices in the SEMOF study.

To compare the prediction of hip fracture risk of several bone ultrasounds (QUS), 7062 Swiss women > or =70 years of age were measured with three QUSs (two of the heel, one of the phalanges). Heel QUSs were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS was not. INTRODUCTION: As the number of hip fracture is expected to increase during these next decades, it is important to develop strategies to detect subjects at risk. Quantitative bone ultrasound (QUS), an ionizing radiation-free method, which is transportable, could be interesting for this purpose. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The Swiss Evaluation of the Methods of Measurement of Osteoporotic Fracture Risk (SEMOF) study is a multicenter cohort study, which compared three QUSs for the assessment of hip fracture risk in a sample of 7609 elderly ambulatory women > or =70 years of age. Two QUSs measured the heel (Achilles+; GE-Lunar and Sahara; Hologic), and one measured the heel (DBM Sonic 1200; IGEA). The Cox proportional hazards regression was used to estimate the hazard of the first hip fracture, adjusted for age, BMI, and center, and the area under the ROC curves were calculated to compare the devices and their parameters. RESULTS: From the 7609 women who were included in the study, 7062 women 75.2 +/- 3.1 (SD) years of age were prospectively followed for 2.9 +/- 0.8 years. Eighty women reported a hip fracture. A decrease by 1 SD of the QUS variables corresponded to an increase of the hip fracture risk from 2.3 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.1) to 2.6 (95% CI, 1.9, 3.4) for the three variables of Achilles+ and from 2.2 (95% CI, 1.7, 3.0) to 2.4 (95% CI, 1.8, 3.2) for the three variables of Sahara. Risk gradients did not differ significantly among the variables of the two heel QUS devices. On the other hand, the phalanges QUS (DBM Sonic 1200) was not predictive of hip fracture risk, with an adjusted hazard risk of 1.2 (95% CI, 0.9, 1.5), even after reanalysis of the digitalized data and using different cut-off levels (1700 or 1570 m/s). CONCLUSIONS: In this elderly women population, heel QUS devices were both predictive of hip fracture risk, whereas the phalanges QUS device was not.

Genome-wide prediction of matrix attachment regions that increase gene expression in mammalian cells.

Gene transfer in eukaryotic cells and organisms suffers from epigenetic effects that result in low or unstable transgene expression and high clonal variability. Use of epigenetic regulators such as matrix attachment regions (MARs) is a promising approach to alleviate such unwanted effects. Dissection of a known MAR allowed the identification of sequence motifs that mediate elevated transgene expression. Bioinformatics analysis implied that these motifs adopt a curved DNA structure that positions nucleosomes and binds specific transcription factors. From these observations, we computed putative MARs from the human genome. Cloning of several predicted MARs indicated that they are much more potent than the previously known element, boosting the expression of recombinant proteins from cultured cells as well as mediating high and sustained expression in mice. Thus we computationally identified potent epigenetic regulators, opening new strategies toward high and stable transgene expression for research, therapeutic production or gene-based therapies.

A genetic risk score combining 32 SNPs is associated with body mass index and improves obesity prediction in people with major depressive disorder.

BACKGROUND: Obesity is strongly associated with major depressive disorder (MDD) and various other diseases. Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple risk loci robustly associated with body mass index (BMI). In this study, we aimed to investigate whether a genetic risk score (GRS) combining multiple BMI risk loci might have utility in prediction of obesity in patients with MDD. METHODS: Linear and logistic regression models were conducted to predict BMI and obesity, respectively, in three independent large case-control studies of major depression (Radiant, GSK-Munich, PsyCoLaus). The analyses were first performed in the whole sample and then separately in depressed cases and controls. An unweighted GRS was calculated by summation of the number of risk alleles. A weighted GRS was calculated as the sum of risk alleles at each locus multiplied by their effect sizes. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis was used to compare the discriminatory ability of predictors of obesity. RESULTS: In the discovery phase, a total of 2,521 participants (1,895 depressed patients and 626 controls) were included from the Radiant study. Both unweighted and weighted GRS were highly associated with BMI (P <0.001) but explained only a modest amount of variance. Adding 'traditional' risk factors to GRS significantly improved the predictive ability with the area under the curve (AUC) in the ROC analysis, increasing from 0.58 to 0.66 (95% CI, 0.62-0.68; χ(2) = 27.68; P <0.0001). Although there was no formal evidence of interaction between depression status and GRS, there was further improvement in AUC in the ROC analysis when depression status was added to the model (AUC = 0.71; 95% CI, 0.68-0.73; χ(2) = 28.64; P <0.0001). We further found that the GRS accounted for more variance of BMI in depressed patients than in healthy controls. Again, GRS discriminated obesity better in depressed patients compared to healthy controls. We later replicated these analyses in two independent samples (GSK-Munich and PsyCoLaus) and found similar results. CONCLUSIONS: A GRS proved to be a highly significant predictor of obesity in people with MDD but accounted for only modest amount of variance. Nevertheless, as more risk loci are identified, combining a GRS approach with information on non-genetic risk factors could become a useful strategy in identifying MDD patients at higher risk of developing obesity.