Cluster recognition in spatial-temporal sequences: The case of forest fires

Forest fire sequences can be modelled as a stochastic point process where events are characterized by their spatial locations and occurrence in time. Cluster analysis permits the detection of the space/time pattern distribution of forest fires. These analyses are useful to assist fire-managers in identifying risk areas, implementing preventive measures and conducting strategies for an efficient distribution of the firefighting resources. This paper aims to identify hot spots in forest fire sequences by means of the space-time scan statistics permutation model (STSSP) and a geographical information system (GIS) for data and results visualization. The scan statistical methodology uses a scanning window, which moves across space and time, detecting local excesses of events in specific areas over a certain period of time. Finally, the statistical significance of each cluster is evaluated through Monte Carlo hypothesis testing. The case study is the forest fires registered by the Forest Service in Canton Ticino (Switzerland) from 1969 to 2008. This dataset consists of geo-referenced single events including the location of the ignition points and additional information. The data were aggregated into three sub-periods (considering important preventive legal dispositions) and two main ignition-causes (lightning and anthropogenic causes). Results revealed that forest fire events in Ticino are mainly clustered in the southern region where most of the population is settled. Our analysis uncovered local hot spots arising from extemporaneous arson activities. Results regarding the naturally-caused fires (lightning fires) disclosed two clusters detected in the northern mountainous area.

La construction face au physicalisme

Les textes inédits traduits et présentés dans ce volume constituent un témoignage exceptionnel quant à l'évolution de la pensée de Carnap, l'un des fondateurs de la philosophie analytique. Des premières ébauches d'une construction logique du monde à l'analyse logique des propositions du langage, ils nous font en effet assister aux différents moments d'un programme philosophique inscrit dans le débat du physicalisme et de l'unité de la science. La réductibilité des termes de la psychologie puis de la biologie aux termes de la physique implique-t-elle la dérivabilité de leurs lois aux siennes ? Y a-t-il bonne conséquence d'une épistémologie de la réduction à une réduction ontologique ? Le monde, en somme, est-il entièrement explicable par le langage, et si oui, lequel ?

Pattern recognition of sleep in rodents using piezoelectric signals generated by gross body movements.

Current research on sleep using experimental animals is limited by the expense and time-consuming nature of traditional EEG/EMG recordings. We present here an alternative, noninvasive approach utilizing piezoelectric films configured as highly sensitive motion detectors. These film strips attached to the floor of the rodent cage produce an electrical output in direct proportion to the distortion of the material. During sleep, movement associated with breathing is the predominant gross body movement and, thus, output from the piezoelectric transducer provided an accurate respiratory trace during sleep. During wake, respiratory movements are masked by other motor activities. An automatic pattern recognition system was developed to identify periods of sleep and wake using the piezoelectric generated signal. Due to the complex and highly variable waveforms that result from subtle postural adjustments in the animals, traditional signal analysis techniques were not sufficient for accurate classification of sleep versus wake. Therefore, a novel pattern recognition algorithm was developed that successfully distinguished sleep from wake in approximately 95% of all epochs. This algorithm may have general utility for a variety of signals in biomedical and engineering applications. This automated system for monitoring sleep is noninvasive, inexpensive, and may be useful for large-scale sleep studies including genetic approaches towards understanding sleep and sleep disorders, and the rapid screening of the efficacy of sleep or wake promoting drugs.

La parole éthique des Eglises européennes face à la crise du travail (1975-1985).

Cette thèse compare et analyse les affirmations de plus de 300 publications d'Eglises européennes sur la crise de l'emploi des années 1975-1985. Il en ressort des approches concernant tantôt l'évolution de la situation économique, tantôt la place de l'emploi dans la vie humaine, tantôt les conflits sociaux autour des emplois. Les différents types de discours éthiques prononcés sont valorisés, chacun dans son espace; certains points font l'objet de remarques critiques. Ces considérations sont complétées de perspectives tirées des discours bibliques correspondants et portant sur les enjeux des débats éthiques actuels sur la place du travail dans l'économie et la société.

Identification of new MHC class I-restricted human tumor antigens for immunotherapy

Summary Cancer is a leading cause of morbidity and mortality in Western countries (as an example, colorectal cancer accounts for about 300'000 new cases and 200'000 deaths each year in Europe and in the USA). Despite that many patients with cancer have complete macroscopic clearance of their disease after resection, radiotherapy and/or chemotherapy, many of these patients develop fatal recurrence. Vaccination with immunogenic peptide tumor antigens has shown encouraging progresses in the last decade; immunotherapy might therefore constitute a fourth therapeutic option in the future. We dissect here and critically evaluate the numerous steps of reverse immunology, a forecast procedure to identify antigenic peptides from the sequence of a gene of interest. Bioinformatic algorithms were applied to mine sequence databases for tumor-specific transcripts. A quality assessment of publicly available sequence databanks allowed defining strengths and weaknesses of bioinformatics-based prediction of colon cancer-specific alternative splicing: new splice variants could be identified, however cancer-restricted expression could not be significantly predicted. Other sources of target transcripts were quantitatively investigated by polymerase chain reactions, as cancer-testis genes or reported overexpressed transcripts. Based on the relative expression of a defined set of housekeeping genes in colon cancer tissues, we characterized a precise procedure for accurate normalization and determined a threshold for the definition of significant overexpression of genes in cancers versus normal tissues. Further steps of reverse immunology were applied on a splice variant of the Melan¬A gene. Since it is known that the C-termini of antigenic peptides are directly produced by the proteasome, longer precursor and overlapping peptides encoded by the target sequence were synthesized chemically and digested in vitro with purified proteasome. The resulting fragments were identified by mass spectroscopy to detect cleavage sites. Using this information and based on the available anchor motifs for defined HLA class I molecules, putative antigenic peptides could be predicted. Their relative affinity for HLA molecules was confirmed experimentally with functional competitive binding assays and they were used to search patients' peripheral blood lymphocytes for the presence of specific cytolytic T lymphocytes (CTL). CTL clones specific for a splice variant of Melan-A could be isolated; although they recognized peptide-pulsed cells, they failed to lyse melanoma cells in functional assays of antigen recognition. In the conclusion, we discuss advantages and bottlenecks of reverse immunology and compare the technical aspects of this approach with the more classical procedure of direct immunology, a technique introduced by Boon and colleagues more than 10 years ago to successfully clone tumor antigens.

The forgotten face of regular physical exercise: a 'natural' anti-atherogenic activity.

Humans are not programmed to be inactive. The combination of both accelerated sedentary lifestyle and constant food availability disturbs ancient metabolic processes leading to excessive storage of energy in tissue, dyslipidaemia and insulin resistance. As a consequence, the prevalence of Type 2 diabetes, obesity and the metabolic syndrome has increased significantly over the last 30 years. A low level of physical activity and decreased daily energy expenditure contribute to the increased risk of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality following atherosclerotic vascular damage. Physical inactivity leads to the accumulation of visceral fat and consequently the activation of the oxidative stress/inflammation cascade, which promotes the development of atherosclerosis. Considering physical activity as a 'natural' programmed state, it is assumed that it possesses atheroprotective properties. Exercise prevents plaque development and induces the regression of coronary stenosis. Furthermore, experimental studies have revealed that exercise prevents the conversion of plaques into a vulnerable phenotype, thus preventing the appearance of fatal lesions. Exercise promotes atheroprotection possibly by reducing or preventing oxidative stress and inflammation through at least two distinct pathways. Exercise, through laminar shear stress activation, down-regulates endothelial AT1R (angiotensin II type 1 receptor) expression, leading to decreases in NADPH oxidase activity and superoxide anion production, which in turn decreases ROS (reactive oxygen species) generation, and preserves endothelial NO bioavailability and its protective anti-atherogenic effects. Contracting skeletal muscle now emerges as a new organ that releases anti-inflammatory cytokines, such as IL-6 (interleukin-6). IL-6 inhibits TNF-α (tumour necrosis factor-α) production in adipose tissue and macrophages. The down-regulation of TNF-α induced by skeletal-muscle-derived IL-6 may also participate in mediating the atheroprotective effect of physical activity.

Community introduction of practice parameters for autistic spectrum disorders: Advancing early recognition.

OBJECTIVES: Within a strong interdisciplinary framework, improvement in the quality of care for children with autistic spectrum disorders through a 2 year implementation program of Practice Parameters, aimed principally at improving early detection and intervention. METHOD: We developed Practice Parameters (PPs) for Pervasive Developmental Disorders and circulated the PPs to all child and adolescent psychiatrists practicing in the region. RESULTS: PP development and parallel information strategies resulted in a significant decrease of 1.5 years in the mean-age-at-diagnosis. However, further analysis indicated that improvement was only transient. CONCLUSION: Despite the encouraging improvement in mean-age-at-diagnosis 2 years after PP implementation, other indicators showed a failure to maintain the improvements. A systematic screening program would be the most reliable method to reinforce the PPs.