Accuracy of plant assemblage predictions from species distribution models varies along environmental gradients

Aim: Climatic niche modelling of species and community distributions implicitly assumes strong and constant climatic determinism across geographic space. This assumption had however never been tested so far. We tested it by assessing how stacked-species distribution models (S-SDMs) perform for predicting plant species assemblages along elevation. Location: Western Swiss Alps. Methods: Using robust presence-absence data, we first assessed the ability of topo-climatic S-SDMs to predict plant assemblages in a study area encompassing a 2800 m wide elevation gradient. We then assessed the relationships among several evaluation metrics and trait-based tests of community assembly rules. Results: The standard errors of individual SDMs decreased significantly towards higher elevations. Overall, the S-SDM overpredicted far more than they underpredicted richness and could not reproduce the humpback curve along elevation. Overprediction was greater at low and mid-range elevations in absolute values but greater at high elevations when standardised by the actual richness. Looking at species composition, the evaluation metrics accounting for both the presence and absence of species (overall prediction success and kappa) or focusing on correctly predicted absences (specificity) increased with increasing elevation, while the metrics focusing on correctly predicted presences (Jaccard index and sensitivity) decreased. The best overall evaluation - as driven by specificity - occurred at high elevation where species assemblages were shown to be under significant environmental filtering of small plants. In contrast, the decreased overall accuracy in the lowlands was associated with functional patterns representing any type of assembly rule (environmental filtering, limiting similarity or null assembly). Main Conclusions: Our study reveals interesting patterns of change in S-SDM errors with changes in assembly rules along elevation. Yet, significant levels of assemblage prediction errors occurred throughout the gradient, calling for further improvement of SDMs, e.g., by adding key environmental filters that act at fine scales and developing approaches to account for variations in the influence of predictors along environmental gradients.

Axial sub-nanometer accuracy in digital holographic microscopy

We present state-of-the-art dual-wavelength digital holographic microscopy (DHM) measurement on a calibrated 8.9 nm high chromium thin step sample and demonstrate sub-nanometer axial accuracy. By using a modified DHM reference calibrated hologram (RCH) reconstruction method, a temporal averaging procedure and a specific dual-wavelength DHM arrangement, it is shown that specimen topography can be measured with an accuracy, defined as the axial standard deviation, reduced to at least 0.9 nm. Indeed for the first time to the best of our knowledge, it is reported that averaging each of the two wavefronts recorded with real-time dual-wavelength DHM can provide up to 30% spatial noise reduction for the given configuration. Moreover, the presented experimental configuration achieves a temporal stability below 0.8 nm, thus paving the way to Angström range for dual-wavelength DHM.

Accuracy of four cardiovascular risk scores in a Swiss population-based cohort

Purpose: To assess the global cardiovascular (CV) risk of an individual, several scores have been developed. However, their accuracy and comparability need to be evaluated in populations others from which they were derived. The aim of this study was to compare the predictive accuracy of 4 CV risk scores using data of a large population-based cohort. Methods: Prospective cohort study including 4980 participants (2698 women, mean age± SD: 52.7±10.8 years) in Lausanne, Switzerland followed for an average of 5.5 years (range 0.2 - 8.5). Two end points were assessed: 1) coronary heart disease (CHD), and 2) CV diseases (CVD). Four risk scores were compared: original and recalibrated Framingham coronary heart disease scores (1998 and 2001); original PROCAM score (2002) and its recalibrated version for Switzerland (IAS-AGLA); Reynolds risk score. Discrimination was assessed using Harrell's C statistics, model fitness using Akaike's information criterion (AIC) and calibration using pseudo Hosmer-Lemeshow test. The sensitivity, specificity and corresponding 95% confidence intervals were assessed for each risk score using the highest risk category ([20+ % at 10 years) as the "positive" test. Results: Recalibrated and original 1998 and original 2001 Framingham scores show better discrimination (>0.720) and model fitness (low AIC) for CHD and CVD. All 4 scores are correctly calibrated (Chi2<20). The recalibrated Framingham 1998 score has the best sensitivities, 37.8% and 40.4%, for CHD and CVD, respectively. All scores present specificities >90%. Framingham 1998, PROCAM and IAS-AGLA scores include the greatest proportion of subjects (>200) in the high risk category whereas recalibrated Framingham 2001 and Reynolds include <=44 subjects. Conclusion: In this cohort, we see variations of accuracy between risk scores, the original Framingham 2001 score demonstrating the best compromise between its accuracy and its limited selection of subjects in the highest risk category. We advocate that national guidelines, based on independently validated data, take into account calibrated CV risk scores for their respective countries.

Assessment of early-stage optic nerve invasion in retinoblastoma using high-resolution 1.5 Tesla MRI with surface coils: a multicentre, prospective accuracy study with histopathological correlation.

OBJECTIVES: To assess the accuracy of high-resolution (HR) magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in diagnosing early-stage optic nerve (ON) invasion in a retinoblastoma cohort. METHODS: This IRB-approved, prospective multicenter study included 95 patients (55 boys, 40 girls; mean age, 29 months). 1.5-T MRI was performed using surface coils before enucleation, including spin-echo unenhanced and contrast-enhanced (CE) T1-weighted sequences (slice thickness, 2 mm; pixel size <0.3 × 0.3 mm(2)). Images were read by five neuroradiologists blinded to histopathologic findings. ROC curves were constructed with AUC assessment using a bootstrap method. RESULTS: Histopathology identified 41 eyes without ON invasion and 25 with prelaminar, 18 with intralaminar and 12 with postlaminar invasion. All but one were postoperatively classified as stage I by the International Retinoblastoma Staging System. The accuracy of CE-T1 sequences in identifying ON invasion was limited (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.55 - 0.72) and not confirmed for postlaminar invasion diagnosis (AUC = 0.64; 95 % CI, 0.47 - 0.82); high specificities (range, 0.64 - 1) and negative predictive values (range, 0.81 - 0.97) were confirmed. CONCLUSION: HR-MRI with surface coils is recommended to appropriately select retinoblastoma patients eligible for primary enucleation without the risk of IRSS stage II but cannot substitute for pathology in differentiating the first degrees of ON invasion. KEY POINTS: • HR-MRI excludes advanced optic nerve invasion with high negative predictive value. • HR-MRI accurately selects patients eligible for primary enucleation. • Diagnosis of early stages of optic nerve invasion still relies on pathology. • Several physiological MR patterns may mimic optic nerve invasion.

Test result-based sampling: an efficient design for estimating the accuracy of patient safety indicators.

OBJECTIVE: Accuracy studies of Patient Safety Indicators (PSIs) are critical but limited by the large samples required due to low occurrence of most events. We tested a sampling design based on test results (verification-biased sampling [VBS]) that minimizes the number of subjects to be verified. METHODS: We considered 3 real PSIs, whose rates were calculated using 3 years of discharge data from a university hospital and a hypothetical screen of very rare events. Sample size estimates, based on the expected sensitivity and precision, were compared across 4 study designs: random and VBS, with and without constraints on the size of the population to be screened. RESULTS: Over sensitivities ranging from 0.3 to 0.7 and PSI prevalence levels ranging from 0.02 to 0.2, the optimal VBS strategy makes it possible to reduce sample size by up to 60% in comparison with simple random sampling. For PSI prevalence levels below 1%, the minimal sample size required was still over 5000. CONCLUSIONS: Verification-biased sampling permits substantial savings in the required sample size for PSI validation studies. However, sample sizes still need to be very large for many of the rarer PSIs.

Radiographic total disc replacement angle measurement accuracy using the Oxford Cobbometer: precision and bias.

Total disc replacement (TDR) clinical success has been reported to be related to the residual motion of the operated level. Thus, accurate measurement of TDR range of motion (ROM) is of utmost importance. One commonly used tool in measuring ROM is the Oxford Cobbometer. Little is known however on its accuracy (precision and bias) in measuring TDR angles. The aim of this study was to assess the ability of the Cobbometer to accurately measure radiographic TDR angles. An anatomically accurate synthetic L4-L5 motion segment was instrumented with a CHARITE artificial disc. The TDR angle and anatomical position between L4 and L5 was fixed to prohibit motion while the motion segment was radiographically imaged in various degrees of rotation and elevation, representing a sample of possible patient placement positions. An experienced observer made ten readings of the TDR angle using the Cobbometer at each different position. The Cobbometer readings were analyzed to determine measurement accuracy at each position. Furthermore, analysis of variance was used to study rotation and elevation of the motion segment as treatment factors. Cobbometer TDR angle measurements were most accurate (highest precision and lowest bias) at the centered position (95.5%), which placed the TDR directly inline with the x-ray beam source without any rotation. In contrast, the lowest accuracy (75.2%) was observed in the most rotated and off-centered view. A difference as high as 4 degrees between readings at any individual position, and as high as 6 degrees between all the positions was observed. Furthermore, the Cobbometer was unable to detect the expected trend in TDR angle projection with changing position. Although the Cobbometer has been reported to be reliable in different clinical applications, it lacks the needed accuracy to measure TDR angles and ROM. More accurate ROM measurement methods need to be developed to help surgeons and researchers assess radiological success of TDRs.

Quantifying Accuracy Improvement in Sets of Pooled Judgments: Does Dialectical Bootstrapping Work?

Galton (1907) first demonstrated the "wisdom of crowds" phenomenon by averaging independent estimates of unknown quantities given by many individuals. Herzog and Hertwig (2009; hereafter H&H in Psychological Science) showed that individuals' own estimates can be improved by asking them to make two estimates at separate times and averaging them. H&H claimed to observe far greater improvement in accuracy when participants received "dialectical" instructions to consider why their first estimate might be wrong before making their second estimates than when they received standard instructions. We reanalyzed H&H's data using measures of accuracy that are unrelated to the frequency of identical first and second responses and found that participants in both conditions improved their accuracy to an equal degree.

Accuracy and predictability in use of AO three-dimensionally preformed titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital reconstruction: a pilot study.

The aim of this study was to prospectively evaluate the accuracy and predictability of new three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction.We analyzed the preoperative and postoperative clinical and radiologic data of 10 patients with isolated blow-out orbital fractures. Fracture locations were as follows: floor (N = 7; 70%), medial wall (N = 1; 1%), and floor/medial wall (N = 2; 2%). The floor fractures were exposed by a standard transconjunctival approach, whereas a combined transcaruncular transconjunctival approach was used in patients with medial wall fractures. A three-dimensional preformed AO titanium mesh plate (0.4 mm in thickness) was selected according to the size of the defect previously measured on the preoperative computed tomographic (CT) scan examination and fixed at the inferior orbital rim with 1 or 2 screws. The accuracy of plate positioning of the reconstructed orbit was assessed on the postoperative CT scan. Coronal CT scan slices were used to measure bony orbital volume using OsiriX Medical Image software. Reconstructed versus uninjured orbital volume were statistically correlated.Nine patients (90%) had a successful treatment outcome without complications. One patient (10%) developed a mechanical limitation of upward gaze with a resulting handicapping diplopia requiring hardware removal. Postoperative orbital CT scan showed an anatomic three-dimensional placement of the orbital mesh plates in all of the patients. Volume data of the reconstructed orbit fitted that of the contralateral uninjured orbit with accuracy to within 2.5 cm(3). There was no significant difference in volume between the reconstructed and uninjured orbits.This preliminary study has demonstrated that three-dimensionally preformed AO titanium mesh plates for posttraumatic orbital wall reconstruction results in (1) a high rate of success with an acceptable rate of major clinical complications (10%) and (2) an anatomic restoration of the bony orbital contour and volume that closely approximates that of the contralateral uninjured orbit.

Development of a dose-controlled multiculture cell exposure chamber for efficient delivery of airborne and engineered nanoparticles

In order to study the various health influencing parameters related to engineered nanoparticles as well as to soot emitted b diesel engines, there is an urgent need for appropriate sampling devices and methods for cell exposure studies that simulate the respiratory system and facilitate associated biological and toxicological tests. The objective of the present work was the further advancement of a Multiculture Exposure Chamber (MEC) into a dose-controlled system for efficient delivery of nanoparticles to cells. It was validated with various types of nanoparticles (diesel engine soot aggregates, engineered nanoparticles for various applications) and with state-of-the-art nanoparticle measurement instrumentation to assess the local deposition of nanoparticles on the cell cultures. The dose of nanoparticles to which cell cultures are being exposed was evaluated in the normal operation of the in vitro cell culture exposure chamber based on measurements of the size specific nanoparticle collection efficiency of a cell free device. The average efficiency in delivering nanoparticles in the MEC was approximately 82%. The nanoparticle deposition was demonstrated by Transmission Electron Microscopy (TEM). Analysis and design of the MEC employs Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) and true to geometry representations of nanoparticles with the aim to assess the uniformity of nanoparticle deposition among the culture wells. Final testing of the dose-controlled cell exposure system was performed by exposing A549 lung cell cultures to fluorescently labeled nanoparticles. Delivery of aerosolized nanoparticles was demonstrated by visualization of the nanoparticle fluorescence in the cell cultures following exposure. Also monitored was the potential of the aerosolized nanoparticles to generate reactive oxygen species (ROS) (e.g. free radicals and peroxides generation), thus expressing the oxidative stress of the cells which can cause extensive cellular damage or damage on DNA.

Accuracy of out-of-field dose calculation of tomotherapy and cyberknife treatment planning systems: A dosimetric study.

PURPOSE: Late toxicities such as second cancer induction become more important as treatment outcome improves. Often the dose distribution calculated with a commercial treatment planning system (TPS) is used to estimate radiation carcinogenesis for the radiotherapy patient. However, for locations beyond the treatment field borders, the accuracy is not well known. The aim of this study was to perform detailed out-of-field-measurements for a typical radiotherapy treatment plan administered with a Cyberknife and a Tomotherapy machine and to compare the measurements to the predictions of the TPS. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Individually calibrated thermoluminescent dosimeters were used to measure absorbed dose in an anthropomorphic phantom at 184 locations. The measured dose distributions from 6 MV intensity-modulated treatment beams for CyberKnife and TomoTherapy machines were compared to the dose calculations from the TPS. RESULTS: The TPS are underestimating the dose far away from the target volume. Quantitatively the Cyberknife underestimates the dose at 40cm from the PTV border by a factor of 60, the Tomotherapy TPS by a factor of two. If a 50% dose uncertainty is accepted, the Cyberknife TPS can predict doses down to approximately 10 mGy/treatment Gy, the Tomotherapy-TPS down to 0.75 mGy/treatment Gy. The Cyberknife TPS can then be used up to 10cm from the PTV border the Tomotherapy up to 35cm. CONCLUSIONS: We determined that the Cyberknife and Tomotherapy TPS underestimate substantially the doses far away from the treated volume. It is recommended not to use out-of-field doses from the Cyberknife TPS for applications like modeling of second cancer induction. The Tomotherapy TPS can be used up to 35cm from the PTV border (for a 390 cm(3) large PTV).

Prospective randomized study of two cryopreservation policies avoiding embryo selection: the pronucleate stage leads to a higher cumulative delivery rate than the early cleavage stage.

OBJECTIVE: To compare the cumulative live birth rates obtained after cryopreservation of either pronucleate (PN) zygotes or early-cleavage (EC) embryos. DESIGN: Prospective randomized study. SETTING: University hospital. PATIENT(S): Three hundred eighty-two patients, involved in an IVF/ICSI program from January 1993 to December 1995, who had their supernumerary embryos cryopreserved either at the PN (group I) or EC (group II) stage. For 89 patients, cryopreservation of EC embryos was canceled because of poor embryo development (group III). Frozen-thawed embryo transfers performed up to December 1998 were considered. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURE(S): Age, oocytes, zygotes, cryopreserved and transferred embryos, damage after thawing, cumulative embryo scores, implantation, and cumulative live birth rates. RESULT(S): The clinical pregnancy and live birth rates were similar in all groups after fresh embryo transfers. Significantly higher implantation (10.5% vs. 5.9%) and pregnancy rates (19.5% vs. 10.9%; P< or = .02 per transfer after cryopreserved embryo transfers were obtained in group I versus group II, leading to higher cumulative pregnancy (55.5% vs. 38.6%; P < or = .002 and live birth rates (46.9% vs. 27.7%; P< or = .0001.Conclusion(s): The transfer of a maximum of three unselected embryos and freezing of all supernumerary PN zygotes can be safely done with significantly higher cumulative pregnancy chances than cryopreserving at a later EC stage.

Release of vancomycin and teicoplanin from a plasticized and resorbable gelatin sponge: in vitro investigation of a new antibiotic delivery system with glycopeptides.

BACKGROUND: The aim of this study was to evaluate the efficacy of sustained release of vancomycin and teicoplanin from a resorbable gelatin glycerol sponge, in order to establish a new delivery system for local anti-infective therapy. MATERIALS AND METHODS: 60 plasticized glycerol gelatin sponges containing either 10 or 20% gelatin (w/v) were incubated in vancomycin or teicoplanin solution at 20 degrees C for either 1 or 24 h. In vitro release properties of the sponges were investigated over a period of 1 week by determining the levels of vancomycin and teicoplanin eluted in plasma using fluorescent polarization immunoassay. The rate constant and the half-life for the antibiotic release of each group were calculated by linear regression assuming first order kinetics. RESULTS: Presoaking for 24 h was associated with a significant increase in the total antibiotic release in all groups opposed to 1 h of incubation, except for the 10% sponges presoaked in teicoplanin. Doubling the gelatin content of the sponges from 10 to 20% significantly increased the total release of antibiotic load only in teicoplanin-containing sponges after 24 h incubation. In all corresponding groups investigated, release of vancomycin was more prolonged compared to teicoplanin, which allowed a gradual release beyond 5 days. The half-life (h +/- SEM) of both types of vancomycin-containing sponges was significantly prolonged by 24 h incubation in comparison to 1 h incubation (29.1 +/- 5.9 vs 5.9 +/- 1.0; p < 0.001, 30.0 +/- 2.1 vs 11.1 +/- 1.9; p < 0.001). However, neither doubling the gelatin content of the sponges nor a prolonged incubation was associated with a significantly prolonged delivery of teicoplanin. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrated a better diffusion-controlled release of vancomycin-impregnated glycerol gelatin sponges compared to those pretreated with teicoplanin. The plasticized glycerol gelatin sponge may be a promising carrier for the application of vancomycin to infected wounds for local anti-infective therapy.