Financial Markets and Real Ecinomy: Four Essays in International Trade

Financial markets play an important role in an economy performing various functions like mobilizing and pooling savings, producing information about investment opportunities, screening and monitoring investments, implementation of corporate governance, diversification and management of risk. These functions influence saving rates, investment decisions, technological innovation and, therefore, have important implications for welfare. In my PhD dissertation I examine the interplay of financial and product markets by looking at different channels through which financial markets may influence an economy.My dissertation consists of four chapters. The first chapter is a co-authored work with Martin Strieborny, a PhD student from the University of Lausanne. The second chapter is a co-authored work with Melise Jaud, a PhD student from the Paris School of Economics. The third chapter is co-authored with both Melise Jaud and Martin Strieborny. The last chapter of my PhD dissertation is a single author paper.Chapter 1 of my PhD thesis analyzes the effect of financial development on growth of contract intensive industries. These industries intensively use intermediate inputs that neither can be sold on organized exchange, nor are reference-priced (Levchenko, 2007; Nunn, 2007). A typical example of a contract intensive industry would be an industry where an upstream supplier has to make investments in order to customize a product for needs of a downstream buyer. After the investment is made and the product is adjusted, the buyer may refuse to meet a commitment and trigger ex post renegotiation. Since the product is customized to the buyer's needs, the supplier cannot sell the product to a different buyer at the original price. This is referred in the literature as the holdup problem. As a consequence, the individually rational suppliers will underinvest into relationship-specific assets, hurting the downstream firms with negative consequences for aggregate growth. The standard way to mitigate the hold up problem is to write a binding contract and to rely on the legal enforcement by the state. However, even the most effective contract enforcement might fail to protect the supplier in tough times when the buyer lacks a reliable source of external financing. This suggests the potential role of financial intermediaries, banks in particular, in mitigating the incomplete contract problem. First, financial products like letters of credit and letters of guarantee can substantially decrease a risk and transaction costs of parties. Second, a bank loan can serve as a signal about a buyer's true financial situation, an upstream firm will be more willing undertake relationship-specific investment knowing that the business partner is creditworthy and will abstain from myopic behavior (Fama, 1985; von Thadden, 1995). Therefore, a well-developed financial (especially banking) system should disproportionately benefit contract intensive industries.The empirical test confirms this hypothesis. Indeed, contract intensive industries seem to grow faster in countries with a well developed financial system. Furthermore, this effect comes from a more developed banking sector rather than from a deeper stock market. These results are reaffirmed examining the effect of US bank deregulation on the growth of contract intensive industries in different states. Beyond an overall pro-growth effect, the bank deregulation seems to disproportionately benefit the industries requiring relationship-specific investments from their suppliers.Chapter 2 of my PhD focuses on the role of the financial sector in promoting exports of developing countries. In particular, it investigates how credit constraints affect the ability of firms operating in agri-food sectors of developing countries to keep exporting to foreign markets.Trade in high-value agri-food products from developing countries has expanded enormously over the last two decades offering opportunities for development. However, trade in agri-food is governed by a growing array of standards. Sanitary and Phytosanitary standards (SPS) and technical regulations impose additional sunk, fixed and operating costs along the firms' export life. Such costs may be detrimental to firms' survival, "pricing out" producers that cannot comply. The existence of these costs suggests a potential role of credit constraints in shaping the duration of trade relationships on foreign markets. A well-developed financial system provides the funds to exporters necessary to adjust production processes in order to meet quality and quantity requirements in foreign markets and to maintain long-standing trade relationships. The products with higher needs for financing should benefit the most from a well functioning financial system. This differential effect calls for a difference-in-difference approach initially proposed by Rajan and Zingales (1998). As a proxy for demand for financing of agri-food products, the sanitary risk index developed by Jaud et al. (2009) is used. The empirical literature on standards and norms show high costs of compliance, both variable and fixed, for high-value food products (Garcia-Martinez and Poole, 2004; Maskus et al., 2005). The sanitary risk index reflects the propensity of products to fail health and safety controls on the European Union (EU) market. Given the high costs of compliance, the sanitary risk index captures the demand for external financing to comply with such regulations.The prediction is empirically tested examining the export survival of different agri-food products from firms operating in Ghana, Mali, Malawi, Senegal and Tanzania. The results suggest that agri-food products that require more financing to keep up with food safety regulation of the destination market, indeed sustain longer in foreign market, when they are exported from countries with better developed financial markets.Chapter 3 analyzes the link between financial markets and efficiency of resource allocation in an economy. Producing and exporting products inconsistent with a country's factor endowments constitutes a serious misallocation of funds, which undermines competitiveness of the economy and inhibits its long term growth. In this chapter, inefficient exporting patterns are analyzed through the lens of the agency theories from the corporate finance literature. Managers may pursue projects with negative net present values because their perquisites or even their job might depend on them. Exporting activities are particularly prone to this problem. Business related to foreign markets involves both high levels of additional spending and strong incentives for managers to overinvest. Rational managers might have incentives to push for exports that use country's scarce factors which is suboptimal from a social point of view. Export subsidies might further skew the incentives towards inefficient exporting. Management can divert the export subsidies into investments promoting inefficient exporting.Corporate finance literature stresses the disciplining role of outside debt in counteracting the internal pressures to divert such "free cash flow" into unprofitable investments. Managers can lose both their reputation and the control of "their" firm if the unpaid external debt triggers a bankruptcy procedure. The threat of possible failure to satisfy debt service payments pushes the managers toward an efficient use of available resources (Jensen, 1986; Stulz, 1990; Hart and Moore, 1995). The main sources of debt financing in the most countries are banks. The disciplining role of banks might be especially important in the countries suffering from insufficient judicial quality. Banks, in pursuing their rights, rely on comparatively simple legal interventions that can be implemented even by mediocre courts. In addition to their disciplining role, banks can promote efficient exporting patterns in a more direct way by relaxing credit constraints of producers, through screening, identifying and investing in the most profitable investment projects. Therefore, a well-developed domestic financial system, and particular banking system, would help to push a country's exports towards products congruent with its comparative advantage.This prediction is tested looking at the survival of different product categories exported to US market. Products are identified according to the Euclidian distance between their revealed factor intensity and the country's factor endowments. The results suggest that products suffering from a comparative disadvantage (labour-intensive products from capital-abundant countries) survive less on the competitive US market. This pattern is stronger if the exporting country has a well-developed banking system. Thus, a strong banking sector promotes exports consistent with a country comparative advantage.Chapter 4 of my PhD thesis further examines the role of financial markets in fostering efficient resource allocation in an economy. In particular, the allocative efficiency hypothesis is investigated in the context of equity market liberalization.Many empirical studies document a positive and significant effect of financial liberalization on growth (Levchenko et al. 2009; Quinn and Toyoda 2009; Bekaert et al., 2005). However, the decrease in the cost of capital and the associated growth in investment appears rather modest in comparison to the large GDP growth effect (Bekaert and Harvey, 2005; Henry, 2000, 2003). Therefore, financial liberalization may have a positive impact on growth through its effect on the allocation of funds across firms and sectors.Free access to international capital markets allows the largest and most profitable domestic firms to borrow funds in foreign markets (Rajan and Zingales, 2003). As domestic banks loose some of their best clients, they reoptimize their lending practices seeking new clients among small and younger industrial firms. These firms are likely to be more risky than large and established companies. Screening of customers becomes prevalent as the return to screening rises. Banks, ceteris paribus, tend to focus on firms operating in comparative-advantage sectors because they are better risks. Firms in comparative-disadvantage sectors finding it harder to finance their entry into or survival in export markets either exit or refrain from entering export markets. On aggregate, one should therefore expect to see less entry, more exit, and shorter survival on export markets in those sectors after financial liberalization.The paper investigates the effect of financial liberalization on a country's export pattern by comparing the dynamics of entry and exit of different products in a country export portfolio before and after financial liberalization.The results suggest that products that lie far from the country's comparative advantage set tend to disappear relatively faster from the country's export portfolio following the liberalization of financial markets. In other words, financial liberalization tends to rebalance the composition of a country's export portfolio towards the products that intensively use the economy's abundant factors.

Paediatric cardiac CT examinations: impact of the iterative reconstruction method ASIR on image quality--preliminary findings.

BACKGROUND: Radiation dose exposure is of particular concern in children due to the possible harmful effects of ionizing radiation. The adaptive statistical iterative reconstruction (ASIR) method is a promising new technique that reduces image noise and produces better overall image quality compared with routine-dose contrast-enhanced methods. OBJECTIVE: To assess the benefits of ASIR on the diagnostic image quality in paediatric cardiac CT examinations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Four paediatric radiologists based at two major hospitals evaluated ten low-dose paediatric cardiac examinations (80 kVp, CTDI(vol) 4.8-7.9 mGy, DLP 37.1-178.9 mGy·cm). The average age of the cohort studied was 2.6 years (range 1 day to 7 years). Acquisitions were performed on a 64-MDCT scanner. All images were reconstructed at various ASIR percentages (0-100%). For each examination, radiologists scored 19 anatomical structures using the relative visual grading analysis method. To estimate the potential for dose reduction, acquisitions were also performed on a Catphan phantom and a paediatric phantom. RESULTS: The best image quality for all clinical images was obtained with 20% and 40% ASIR (p < 0.001) whereas with ASIR above 50%, image quality significantly decreased (p < 0.001). With 100% ASIR, a strong noise-free appearance of the structures reduced image conspicuity. A potential for dose reduction of about 36% is predicted for a 2- to 3-year-old child when using 40% ASIR rather than the standard filtered back-projection method. CONCLUSION: Reconstruction including 20% to 40% ASIR slightly improved the conspicuity of various paediatric cardiac structures in newborns and children with respect to conventional reconstruction (filtered back-projection) alone.

Rapid Improvement in Health-Related Quality of Life in Gouty Arthritis Patients Treated with Canakinumab (ACZ885) Compared to Triamcinolone Acetonide

Background: Gout patients initiating urate lowering therapy have an increased risk of flares. Inflammation in gouty arthritis is induced by interleukin (IL)-1b. Canakinumab inhibits IL-1b effectively in clinical studies. This study compared different doses of canakinumab vs colchicine in preventing flares in gout patients initiating allopurinol therapy.Methods: In this 24 wk double blind study, gout patients (20-79 years) initiating allopurinol were randomized (1:1:1:1:1:1:2) to canakinumab s.c. single doses of 25, 50, 100, 200, 300 mg, or 150mg divided in doses every 4 wks (50þ50þ25þ25mg [q4wk]) or colchicine 0.5mg p.o. daily for 16 wks. Primary outcome was to determine the canakinumab dose giving comparable efficacy to colchicine with respect to number of flares occurring during first 16 wks. Secondary outcomes included number of patients with flares and C-reactive protein (CRP) levels during the first 16 wks.Results: 432 patients were randomized and 391 (91%) completed the study. All canakinumab doses were better than colchicine in preventing flares and therefore, a canakinumab dose comparable to colchicine couldn't be determined. Based on a negative binomialmodel, all canakinumab groups, except 25 mg, reduced the flare rate ratio per patient significantly compared to colchicine group (rate ratio estimates 25mg 0.60, 50mg 0.34, 100mg 0.28, 200mg 0.37, 300mg 0.29, q4wk 0.38; p_0.05). Percentage of patients with flares was lower for all canakinumab groups (25mg 27.3%, 50mg 16.7%, 100mg 14.8%, 200mg 18.5%, 300mg 15.1%, q4wk 16.7%) compared to colchicine group (44.4%). All patients taking canakinumab were significantly less likely to experience at least one gout flare than patients taking colchicine (odds ratio range [0.22 - 0.47]; p_0.05 for all). Median baseline CRP levels were 2.86 mg/L for 25 mg, 3.42 mg/L for 50 mg, 1.76 mg/L for 100 mg, 3.66 mg/L for 200 mg, 3.21 mg/L for 300 mg, 3.23 mg/L for q4wk canakinumab groups and 2.69 mg/L for colchicine group. In all canakinumab groups with median CRP levels above the normal range at baseline, median levels declined within 15 days of treatment and were maintained at normal levels (ULN¼3 mg/L) throughout the 16 wk period. Adverse events (AEs) occurred in 52.7% (25 mg), 55.6% (50 mg), 51.9% (100 mg), 51.9% (200 mg), 54.7% (300 mg), 58.5% (q4wk) of patients on canakinumab vs 53.7% of patients on colchicine. Serious AEs (SAE) were reported in 2 (3.6%; 25 mg), 2 (3.7%, 50 mg), 3 (5.6%, 100 mg), 3 (5.6%, 200 mg), 3 (5.7%, 300 mg), 1 (1.9%, q4wk) patients on canakinumab and in 5 (4.6%) patients on colchicine. 1 fatal SAE (myocardial infarction, not related to study drug) occurred in colchicine group.Conclusions: In this randomized, double-blind active controlled study of flare prevention in gout patients initiating allopurinol therapy, treatment with canakinumab led to a statistically significant reduction in flares compared with colchicine and was well tolerated.Disclosure statement: U.A., A.B., G.K., D.R. and P.S. are employees of and have stock options or bold holdings with Novartis Pharma AG. E.M. is a principal investigator for Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. E.N. has received consulting fees from Roche. N.S. has received research grants from Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation. A.S. has received consultancy fees from Novartis Pharma AG, Abbott, Bristol-Myers Squibb, Essex, Pfizer, MSD, Roche, UCB and Wyeth. All other authors have declared no conflicts of interest.

Validation of the potentially avoidable hospital readmission rate as a routine indicator of the quality of hospital care

BACKGROUND: The hospital readmission rate has been proposed as an important outcome indicator computable from routine statistics. However, most commonly used measures raise conceptual issues. OBJECTIVES: We sought to evaluate the usefulness of the computerized algorithm for identifying avoidable readmissions on the basis of minimum bias, criterion validity, and measurement precision. RESEARCH DESIGN AND SUBJECTS: A total of 131,809 hospitalizations of patients discharged alive from 49 hospitals were used to compare the predictive performance of risk adjustment methods. A subset of a random sample of 570 medical records of discharge/readmission pairs in 12 hospitals were reviewed to estimate the predictive value of the screening of potentially avoidable readmissions. MEASURES: Potentially avoidable readmissions, defined as readmissions related to a condition of the previous hospitalization and not expected as part of a program of care and occurring within 30 days after the previous discharge, were identified by a computerized algorithm. Unavoidable readmissions were considered as censored events. RESULTS: A total of 5.2% of hospitalizations were followed by a potentially avoidable readmission, 17% of them in a different hospital. The predictive value of the screen was 78%; 27% of screened readmissions were judged clearly avoidable. The correlation between the hospital rate of clearly avoidable readmission and all readmissions rate, potentially avoidable readmissions rate or the ratio of observed to expected readmissions were respectively 0.42, 0.56 and 0.66. Adjustment models using clinical information performed better. CONCLUSION: Adjusted rates of potentially avoidable readmissions are scientifically sound enough to warrant their inclusion in hospital quality surveillance.

Influence of the quality of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease.

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the influence of nursing on the duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. DESIGN: Data were collected prospectively over a 1-yr period (study year) and compared with previously collected prospective data recorded in our chronic obstructive pulmonary disease database during a 5-yr period. SETTING: The medical intensive care unit (ICU) of a university hospital. PATIENTS: Eighty-seven patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Fifteen patients had chronic obstructive pulmonary disease that required mechanical ventilation for acute exacerbation of their disease (study year), and 72 were patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease from the previously collected data. INTERVENTIONS: The ICU course (duration of mechanical ventilation, mortality) was recorded, as well as several respiratory parameters (pulmonary function tests and arterial blood gases in stable conditions, and nutritional status), and they were compared with an "index of nursing." MEASUREMENTS AND MAIN RESULTS: We developed an "index of nursing", comparing the effective workforce of the nurses (number and qualifications) with the ideal workforce required by the number of patients and the severity of their diseases. A value of 1.0 represented a perfect match between the needed and the effectively present nurses, whereas a lesser value signified a diminished available workforce. This index was compared with the complications and duration of weaning from mechanical ventilation. During the first 5 yrs, the duration of mechanical ventilation increased progressively from 7.3 +/- 8.0 to 38.2 +/- 25.8 days (p = .006). A significant inverse correlation between the duration of mechanical ventilation and the nursing index (p = .025) was found. In the sixth comparative year, the number of nurses increased (nursing index = 1.05) and the duration of mechanical ventilation decreased to 9.9 +/- 13 days (p < .001, yr 5 vs. yr 6). CONCLUSIONS: The quality of nursing appears to be a measurable and critical factor in the weaning from mechanical ventilation of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Below a threshold in the available workforce of ICU nurses, the weaning duration of patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease increases dramatically. Therefore, very close attention should be given to the education and number of ICU nurses.

Quality assurance of the EORTC 22043-30041 trial in post-operative radiotherapy in prostate cancer: Results of the Dummy Run procedure.

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: The EORTC 22043-30041 trial investigates the role of the addition of androgen suppression to post-operative radiotherapy in patients who have undergone radical prostatectomy. As part of the quality assurance of radiotherapy (QART) a Dummy Run (DR) procedure was performed. MATERIALS AND METHOD: The protocol included detailed and published delineation guidelines. Participating institutions digitally submitted radiotherapy treatment volumes and a treatment plan for a standard clinical case. Submissions were centrally reviewed using the VODCA software platform. RESULTS: Thirty-eight submissions from thirty-one institutions were reviewed. Six were accepted without comments. Twenty-three were accepted with comments on one or more items: target volume delineation (22), OAR delineation (23), planning and dosimetry (3) or treatment verification (1). Nine submissions were rejected requiring resubmission, seven for target volume delineation reasons alone. Intervention to highlight the importance of delineation guidelines was made prior to the entry of the first patient in the trial. After this, a lower percentage of resubmissions was required. CONCLUSIONS: The EORTC 22043-30041 Dummy Run highlights the need for timely and effective QART in clinical trials. The variation in target volume and OAR definition demonstrates that clinical guidelines and radiotherapy protocols are not a substitute for QART procedures. Early intervention in response to the Dummy Run improved protocol understanding.

Parent perceived quality of life is age-dependent in children with food allergy.

Food allergy in children significantly affects their quality of life. Its impact can be analyzed by quality of life questionnaires. The aim of our study was to validate the French version of disease-specific questionnaires and to evaluate the quality of life in children with IgE-mediated food allergy. Two validated food allergy-specific questionnaires for quality of life, the parent's and children's forms (FAQLQ-PF and FAQLQ-CF), were translated from English to French and submitted to children with food allergy and their parents. Questionnaires were analyzed in terms of emotional impact, food anxiety, and social and food limitations. NCT 01480427. Sixty-two parents of children aged 0-12 yrs answered the FAQLQ-PF, and 32 children aged 8-12 yrs the FAQLQ-CF. Construct validity of both questionnaires was assessed by correlation between the FAQLQs and FAIM (r = 0.85 and 0.84, respectively). Both FAQLQs had good internal consistency (Cronbach's α = 0.748 and 0.67, respectively). Young children (0-3 yrs old) showed better quality of life scores than older children (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.02). Worse scores were also shown among children with previous severe systemic reactions (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.039), the ones with an allergic mother (FAQLQ-PF global score: p = 0.002), or allergic siblings (FAQLQ-PF emotional impact score: p = 0.034), the ones with multiple food allergy (more than 1 food) (FAQLQ-PF anxiety score: p = 0.04) and among the girls (FAQLQ-CF global score: p = 0.031). Older children, the ones with severe systemic reactions, or with mothers or siblings also affected by allergies, as well as girls, and children with multiple food allergies show worse quality of life scores.

Assessment of needs, health-related quality of life, and satisfaction with care in breast cancer patients to better target supportive care.

BACKGROUND: This study assessed whether breast cancer (BC) patients express similar levels of needs for equivalent severity of symptoms, functioning difficulties, or degrees of satisfaction with care aspects. BC patients who did (or not) report needs in spite of similar difficulties were identified among their sociodemographic or clinical characteristics. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Three hundred and eighty-four (73% response rate) BC patients recruited in ambulatory or surgery hospital services completed the European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life questionnaire (EORTC QLQ)-C30 quality of life [health-related quality of life (HRQOL)], the EORTC IN-PATSAT32 (in-patient) or OUT-PATSAT35 (out-patient) satisfaction with care, and the supportive care needs survey short form 34-item (SCNS-SF34) measures. RESULTS: HRQOL or satisfaction with care scale scores explained 41%, 45%, 40% and 22% of variance in, respectively, psychological, physical/daily living needs, information/health system, and care/support needs (P < 0.001). BC patients' education level, having children, hospital service attendance, and anxiety/depression levels significantly predicted differences in psychological needs relative to corresponding difficulties (adjusted R(2) = 0.11). Medical history and anxiety/depression levels significantly predicted differences in information/health system needs relative to degrees of satisfaction with doctors, nurses, or radiotherapy technicians and general satisfaction (adjusted R(2) = 0.12). Unmet needs were most prevalent in the psychological domains across hospital services. CONCLUSIONS: Assessment of needs, HRQOL, and satisfaction with care highlights the subgroups of BC patients requiring better supportive care targeting.