Implementing statistical learning methods through Bayesian networks. Part 1: a guide to Bayesian parameter estimation using forensic science data

As a thorough aggregation of probability and graph theory, Bayesian networks currently enjoy widespread interest as a means for studying factors that affect the coherent evaluation of scientific evidence in forensic science. Paper I of this series of papers intends to contribute to the discussion of Bayesian networks as a framework that is helpful for both illustrating and implementing statistical procedures that are commonly employed for the study of uncertainties (e.g. the estimation of unknown quantities). While the respective statistical procedures are widely described in literature, the primary aim of this paper is to offer an essentially non-technical introduction on how interested readers may use these analytical approaches - with the help of Bayesian networks - for processing their own forensic science data. Attention is mainly drawn to the structure and underlying rationale of a series of basic and context-independent network fragments that users may incorporate as building blocs while constructing larger inference models. As an example of how this may be done, the proposed concepts will be used in a second paper (Part II) for specifying graphical probability networks whose purpose is to assist forensic scientists in the evaluation of scientific evidence encountered in the context of forensic document examination (i.e. results of the analysis of black toners present on printed or copied documents).

Molecular crime and cellular punishment: active detoxification of misfolded and aggregated proteins in the cell by the chaperone and protease networks.

Labile or mutation-sensitised proteins may spontaneously convert into aggregation-prone conformations that may be toxic and infectious. This hazardous behavior, which can be described as a form of "molecular criminality", can be actively counteracted in the cell by a network of molecular chaperone and proteases. Similar to law enforcement agents, molecular chaperones and proteases can specifically identify, apprehend, unfold and thus neutralize "criminal" protein conformers, allowing them to subsequently refold into harmless functional proteins. Irreversibly damaged polypeptides that have lost the ability to natively refold are preferentially degraded by highly controlled ATP-consuming proteases. Damaged proteins that escape proteasomal degradation can also be "incarcerated" into dense amyloids, "evicted" from the cell, or internally "exiled" to the lysosome to be hydrolysed and recycled. Thus, remarkable parallels exist between molecular and human forms of criminality, as well as in the cellular and social responses to various forms of crime. Yet, differences also exist: whereas programmed death is the preferred solution chosen by aged and aggregation-stressed cells, collective suicide is seldom chosen by lawless societies. Significantly, there is no cellular equivalent for the role of familial care and of education in general, which is so crucial to the proper shaping of functional persons in the society. Unlike in the cell, humanism introduces a bias against radical solutions such as capital punishment, favouring crime prevention, reeducation and social reinsertion of criminals.

Stochastic models and numerical algorithms for a class of regulatory gene networks.

Regulatory gene networks contain generic modules, like those involving feedback loops, which are essential for the regulation of many biological functions (Guido et al. in Nature 439:856-860, 2006). We consider a class of self-regulated genes which are the building blocks of many regulatory gene networks, and study the steady-state distribution of the associated Gillespie algorithm by providing efficient numerical algorithms. We also study a regulatory gene network of interest in gene therapy, using mean-field models with time delays. Convergence of the related time-nonhomogeneous Markov chain is established for a class of linear catalytic networks with feedback loops.

Regional deterministic characterization of fracture networks and its application to GIS-based rock fall risk assessment

The study investigates the possibility to incorporate fracture intensity and block geometry as spatially continuous parameters in GIS-based systems. For this purpose, a deterministic method has been implemented to estimate block size (Bloc3D) and joint frequency (COLTOP). In addition to measuring the block size, the Bloc3D Method provides a 3D representation of the shape of individual blocks. These two methods were applied using field measurements (joint set orientation and spacing) performed over a large field area, in the Swiss Alps. This area is characterized by a complex geology, a number of different rock masses and varying degrees of metamorphism. The spatial variability of the parameters was evaluated with regard to lithology and major faults. A model incorporating these measurements and observations into a GIS system to assess the risk associated with rock falls is proposed. The analysis concludes with a discussion on the feasibility of such an application in regularly and irregularly jointed rock masses, with persistent and impersistent discontinuities.

Plastic modifications within inhibitory control networks induced by practicing a stop-signal task: an electrical neuroimaging study.

INTRODUCTION: Inhibitory control refers to our ability to suppress ongoing motor, affective or cognitive processes and mostly depends on a fronto-basal brain network. Inhibitory control deficits participate in the emergence of several prominent psychiatric conditions, including attention deficit/hyperactivity disorder or addiction. The rehabilitation of these pathologies might therefore benefit from training-based behavioral interventions aiming at improving inhibitory control proficiency and normalizing the underlying neurophysiological mechanisms. The development of an efficient inhibitory control training regimen first requires determining the effects of practicing inhibition tasks. METHODS: We addressed this question by contrasting behavioral performance and electrical neuroimaging analyses of event-related potentials (ERPs) recorded from humans at the beginning versus the end of 1 h of practice on a stop-signal task (SST) involving the withholding of responses when a stop signal was presented during a speeded auditory discrimination task. RESULTS: Practicing a short SST improved behavioral performance. Electrophysiologically, ERPs differed topographically at 200 msec post-stimulus onset, indicative of the engagement of distinct brain network with learning. Source estimations localized this effect within the inferior frontal gyrus, the pre-supplementary motor area and the basal ganglia. CONCLUSION: Our collective results indicate that behavioral and brain responses during an inhibitory control task are subject to fast plastic changes and provide evidence that high-order fronto-basal executive networks can be modified by practicing a SST.

Stimulus statistics shape oscillations in nonlinear recurrent neural networks.

Rhythmic activity plays a central role in neural computations and brain functions ranging from homeostasis to attention, as well as in neurological and neuropsychiatric disorders. Despite this pervasiveness, little is known about the mechanisms whereby the frequency and power of oscillatory activity are modulated, and how they reflect the inputs received by neurons. Numerous studies have reported input-dependent fluctuations in peak frequency and power (as well as couplings across these features). However, it remains unresolved what mediates these spectral shifts among neural populations. Extending previous findings regarding stochastic nonlinear systems and experimental observations, we provide analytical insights regarding oscillatory responses of neural populations to stimulation from either endogenous or exogenous origins. Using a deceptively simple yet sparse and randomly connected network of neurons, we show how spiking inputs can reliably modulate the peak frequency and power expressed by synchronous neural populations without any changes in circuitry. Our results reveal that a generic, non-nonlinear and input-induced mechanism can robustly mediate these spectral fluctuations, and thus provide a framework in which inputs to the neurons bidirectionally regulate both the frequency and power expressed by synchronous populations. Theoretical and computational analysis of the ensuing spectral fluctuations was found to reflect the underlying dynamics of the input stimuli driving the neurons. Our results provide insights regarding a generic mechanism supporting spectral transitions observed across cortical networks and spanning multiple frequency bands.

The α1-adrenergic receptors: diversity of signaling networks and regulation.

The α(1)-adrenergic receptor (AR) subtypes (α(1a), α(1b), and α(1d)) mediate several physiological effects of epinephrine and norepinephrine. Despite several studies in recombinant systems and insight from genetically modified mice, our understanding of the physiological relevance and specificity of the α(1)-AR subtypes is still limited. Constitutive activity and receptor oligomerization have emerged as potential features regulating receptor function. Another recent paradigm is that β arrestins and G protein-coupled receptors themselves can act as scaffolds binding a variety of proteins and this can result in growing complexity of the receptor-mediated cellular effects. The aim of this review is to summarize our current knowledge on some recently identified functional paradigms and signaling networks that might help to elucidate the functional diversity of the α(1)-AR subtypes in various organs.

Evolution of Coordination in Social Networks: A Numerical Study

Coordination games are important to explain efficient and desirable social behavior. Here we study these games by extensive numerical simulation on networked social structures using an evolutionary approach. We show that local network effects may promote selection of efficient equilibria in both pure and general coordination games and may explain social polarization. These results are put into perspective with respect to known theoretical results. The main insight we obtain is that clustering, and especially community structure in social networks has a positive role in promoting socially efficient outcomes.

Learning about Bayesian networks for forensic interpretation : An example based on the "the problem of multiple propositions"

Both, Bayesian networks and probabilistic evaluation are gaining more and more widespread use within many professional branches, including forensic science. Notwithstanding, they constitute subtle topics with definitional details that require careful study. While many sophisticated developments of probabilistic approaches to evaluation of forensic findings may readily be found in published literature, there remains a gap with respect to writings that focus on foundational aspects and on how these may be acquired by interested scientists new to these topics. This paper takes this as a starting point to report on the learning about Bayesian networks for likelihood ratio based, probabilistic inference procedures in a class of master students in forensic science. The presentation uses an example that relies on a casework scenario drawn from published literature, involving a questioned signature. A complicating aspect of that case study - proposed to students in a teaching scenario - is due to the need of considering multiple competing propositions, which is an outset that may not readily be approached within a likelihood ratio based framework without drawing attention to some additional technical details. Using generic Bayesian networks fragments from existing literature on the topic, course participants were able to track the probabilistic underpinnings of the proposed scenario correctly both in terms of likelihood ratios and of posterior probabilities. In addition, further study of the example by students allowed them to derive an alternative Bayesian network structure with a computational output that is equivalent to existing probabilistic solutions. This practical experience underlines the potential of Bayesian networks to support and clarify foundational principles of probabilistic procedures for forensic evaluation.

EEG-based functional networks in schizophrenia.

Schizophrenia is often considered as a dysconnection syndrome in which, abnormal interactions between large-scale functional brain networks result in cognitive and perceptual deficits. In this article we apply the graph theoretic measures to brain functional networks based on the resting EEGs of fourteen schizophrenic patients in comparison with those of fourteen matched control subjects. The networks were extracted from common-average-referenced EEG time-series through partial and unpartial cross-correlation methods. Unpartial correlation detects functional connectivity based on direct and/or indirect links, while partial correlation allows one to ignore indirect links. We quantified the network properties with the graph metrics, including mall-worldness, vulnerability, modularity, assortativity, and synchronizability. The schizophrenic patients showed method-specific and frequency-specific changes especially pronounced for modularity, assortativity, and synchronizability measures. However, the differences between schizophrenia patients and normal controls in terms of graph theory metrics were stronger for the unpartial correlation method.

Cognate microRNA-Gene Regulatory Networks Mediating Glioblastoma Oncogenic Properties

Malignant gliomas, including the most common and fatal form glioblastoma (GBM, WHO grade IV astrocytoma), remain a challenge to treat. In the United States and Europe, more than 30,000 patients per year are newly diagnosed with GBM. Despite ongoing trials, the best currently available multimodal treatment approaches include surgical resection followed by concomitant and adjuvant radiation (RT) and temozolomide (TMZ) therapy, resulting in a low median overall survival (OS) rate ranging from 12.2 - 15.9 months. The important role of genetic and epigenetic changes in DNA, RNA, and protein alteration as well as epigenetic changes secondary to the tumor microenvironment and outside selection pressure (therapeutic interventions), are increasingly being recognized. In GBM treatment, the focus is shifting toward a more patient-centered (personalized) therapy. In this regard, in particular, microRNAs are being increasingly studied. MicroRNAs are non¬protein coding small RNAs that serve as negative gene regulators by binding to a specific sequence in the promoter region of a target gene, thus regulating gene expression. A single microRNA potentially targets hundreds of genes; thus, microRNAs and their cognate target genes have important roles as tumor suppressors and oncogenes as well as regulators of various cancer- specific cellular features, such as proliferation, apoptosis, invasion, and metastasis. The identification of distinct microRNA-gene regulatory networks in GBM patients can be expected to provide novel therapeutic insights by identifying candidate patients for targeted therapies. To this end, in this work we identified and validated clinically relevant and meaningful novel gene- microRNA regulatory networks that correlated with MR tumor phenotypes, histopathology, and patient survival and response rates to therapy. - Le traitement des gliomes malins, y compris sous leur forme la plus commune et meurtrière, le glioblastome (GBM, ou astrocytome de grade IV selon l'OMS), demeure à ce jour un défi. Aux États-Unis et en Europe, un nouveau diagnostic de GBM est prononcé dans plus de 30Ό00 cas par an. En dépit de tests en cours, les meilleures approches thérapeutiques combinées actuellement disponibles comprennent la résection chirurgicale de la tumeur, suivie d'une radiothérapie adjuvante ainsi que d'un traitement au temozolomide (RT/TMZ), thérapies dont résulte une médiane de survie globale basse (overall survival, OS), comprise entre 12.2 et 15.9 mois. On reconnaît de plus en plus le rôle majeur de l'ADN, de l'ARN et de l'altération des protéines ainsi que des modifications épigénétiques, secondaires par rapport au microenvironnement de la tumeur et à la pression de sélection extérieure (les interventions thérapeutiques). Dans le traitement du GBM, le centre d'intérêt se déplace vers une thérapie centrée sur le cas individuel du patient. Dans ce but, en particulier les microARN sont de plus en plus analysés. Les microARN sont de petits ARN non-codants (les protéines) qui servent de régulateurs négatifs de gènes en s'attachant à une séquence spécifique dans la région promotrice d'un gène-cible, régulant ainsi l'expression du gène. Un seul microARN cible potentiellement des centaines de gènes; on a ainsi découvert que les microARN et leurs gènes-cibles apparentés ont une fonction importante en tant que suppresseurs de tumeurs et d'oncogènes, ainsi que comme régulateurs de diverses caractéristiques cellulaires spécifiques du cancer, comme la prolifération, l'apoptose, l'invasion et la métastase. On peut s'attendre à ce que l'identification de réseaux microARN régulateurs de gènes, distincts selon les patients de GBM, fournisse une approche thérapeutique inédite par la détermination des patients susceptibles de réagir favorablement à des thérapies ciblées.