P value and the theory of hypothesis testing: an explanation for new researchers.

In the 1920s, Ronald Fisher developed the theory behind the p value and Jerzy Neyman and Egon Pearson developed the theory of hypothesis testing. These distinct theories have provided researchers important quantitative tools to confirm or refute their hypotheses. The p value is the probability to obtain an effect equal to or more extreme than the one observed presuming the null hypothesis of no effect is true; it gives researchers a measure of the strength of evidence against the null hypothesis. As commonly used, investigators will select a threshold p value below which they will reject the null hypothesis. The theory of hypothesis testing allows researchers to reject a null hypothesis in favor of an alternative hypothesis of some effect. As commonly used, investigators choose Type I error (rejecting the null hypothesis when it is true) and Type II error (accepting the null hypothesis when it is false) levels and determine some critical region. If the test statistic falls into that critical region, the null hypothesis is rejected in favor of the alternative hypothesis. Despite similarities between the two, the p value and the theory of hypothesis testing are different theories that often are misunderstood and confused, leading researchers to improper conclusions. Perhaps the most common misconception is to consider the p value as the probability that the null hypothesis is true rather than the probability of obtaining the difference observed, or one that is more extreme, considering the null is true. Another concern is the risk that an important proportion of statistically significant results are falsely significant. Researchers should have a minimum understanding of these two theories so that they are better able to plan, conduct, interpret, and report scientific experiments.

Whole-body vibration training: metabolic cost of synchronous, side-alternating or no vibrations.

Whole-body vibration training improves strength and can increase maximal oxygen consumption ([·V]O(2max)). No study has compared the metabolic demand of synchronous and side-alternating whole-body vibration. We measured [·V]O₂ and heart rate during a typical synchronous or side-alternating whole-body vibration session in 10 young female sedentary participants. The 20-min session consisted of three sets of six 45-s exercises, with 15 s recovery between exercises. Three conditions were randomly tested on separate days: synchronous at 35 Hz and 4 mm amplitude, side-alternating at 26 Hz and 7.5 mm amplitude (peak acceleration matched at 20 g in both vibration conditions), and no vibrations. Mean [·V]O₂ (expressed as %[·V]O(2max)) did not differ between conditions: 29.7 ± 4.2%, 32.4 ± 6.5%, and 28.7 ± 6.7% for synchronous, side-alternating, and no vibrations respectively (P = 0.103). Mean heart rate (% maximal heart rate) was 65.6 ± 7.3%, 69.8 ± 7.9%, and 64.7 ± 5.6% for synchronous, side-alternating, and no vibrations respectively, with the side-alternating vibrations being significantly higher (P = 0.019). When analysing changes over exercise sessions, mean [·V]O₂ was higher for side-alternating (P < 0.001) than for synchronous and no vibrations. In conclusion, side-alternating whole-body vibration elicits higher heart rate responses than synchronous or no vibrations, and could elevate [·V]O₂, provided the session lasts more than 20 min.

Personalized care in neuro-oncology coming of age: why we need MGMT and 1p/19q testing for malignant glioma patients in clinical practice.

Histological subtyping and grading by malignancy are the cornerstones of the World Health Organization (WHO) classification of tumors of the central nervous system. They shall provide clinicians with guidance as to the course of disease to be expected and the choices of treatment to be made. Nonetheless, patients with histologically identical tumors may have very different outcomes, notably in patients with astrocytic and oligodendroglial gliomas of WHO grades II and III. In gliomas of adulthood, 3 molecular markers have undergone extensive studies in recent years: 1p/19q chromosomal codeletion, O(6)-methylguanine methyltransferase (MGMT) promoter methylation, and mutations of isocitrate dehydrogenase (IDH) 1 and 2. However, the assessment of these molecular markers has so far not been implemented in clinical routine because of the lack of therapeutic implications. In fact, these markers were considered to be prognostic irrespective of whether patients were receiving radiotherapy (RT), chemotherapy, or both (1p/19q, IDH1/2), or of limited value because testing is too complex and no chemotherapy alternative to temozolomide was available (MGMT). In 2012, this situation has changed: long-term follow-up of the Radiation Therapy Oncology Group 9402 and European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer 26951 trials demonstrated an overall survival benefit from the addition to RT of chemotherapy with procarbazine/CCNU/vincristine confined to patients with anaplastic oligodendroglial tumors with (vs without) 1p/19q codeletion. Furthermore, in elderly glioblastoma patients, the NOA-08 and the Nordic trial of RT alone versus temozolomide alone demonstrated a profound impact of MGMT promoter methylation on outcome by therapy and thus established MGMT as a predictive biomarker in this patient population. These recent results call for the routine implementation of 1p/19q and MGMT testing at least in subpopulations of malignant glioma patients and represent an encouraging step toward the development of personalized therapeutic approaches in neuro-oncology.

HIV testing in Switzerland.

OBJECTIVES: To obtain information about the prevalence of, reasons for, and adequacy of HIV testing in the general population in Switzerland in 1992. DESIGN: Telephone survey (n = 2800). RESULTS: Some 47% of the sample underwent one HIV test performed through blood donation (24%), voluntary testing (17%) or both (6%). Of the sample, 46% considered themselves well or very well informed about the HIV test. Patients reported unsystematic pre-test screening by doctors for the main HIV risks. People having been in situations of potential exposure to risk were more likely to have had the test than others. Overall, 85% of those HIV-tested had a relevant, generally risk-related reason for having it performed. CONCLUSIONS: HIV testing is widespread in Switzerland. Testing is mostly performed for relevant reasons. Pre-test counselling is poor and an opportunity for prevention is thus lost.

Looking for Validity or Testing It? The Perils of Stepwise Regression, Extreme-Scores Analysis, Heteroscedasticity, and Measurement Error

When researchers introduce a new test they have to demonstrate that it is valid, using unbiased designs and suitable statistical procedures. In this article we use Monte Carlo analyses to highlight how incorrect statistical procedures (i.e., stepwise regression, extreme scores analyses) or ignoring regression assumptions (e.g., heteroscedasticity) contribute to wrong validity estimates. Beyond these demonstrations, and as an example, we re-examined the results reported by Warwick, Nettelbeck, and Ward (2010) concerning the validity of the Ability Emotional Intelligence Measure (AEIM). Warwick et al. used the wrong statistical procedures to conclude that the AEIM was incrementally valid beyond intelligence and personality traits in predicting various outcomes. In our re-analysis, we found that the reliability-corrected multiple correlation of their measures with personality and intelligence was up to .69. Using robust statistical procedures and appropriate controls, we also found that the AEIM did not predict incremental variance in GPA, stress, loneliness, or well-being, demonstrating the importance for testing validity instead of looking for it.

Vibration Training Elicits a Mixed Aerobic and Resistance-type Exercise in Sedentary Subjects

PURPOSE: We hypothesize that untrained subjects can benefit from a greater cardiovascular stimulation than trained athletes, resembling classical aerobic-type activity, in addition to eliciting strength gains.METHODS: 3 groups of male subjects, inactive (SED), endurance trained (END) and strength trained (STR) underwent fitness (VO2max) and lower-body strength tests (isokinetic). Subjects were submitted to a session of oscillating VT, composed of 3 exercises (isometric half-squat, dynamic squat, dynamic squat with added load), each of 3 minutes duration, and repeated at 3 vibration frequencies (20, 26 and 32 Hz). VO2, heart rate and Borg scale were monitored.RESULTS: 27 healthy subjects (10 SED, 9 END and 8 STR), mean age 24.5 (SED), 25.0 (STR) and 29.8 (END) were included. VO2max was significantly different as expected (47.9 vs. 52.9 vs. 63.9 mL?min-1?kg-1, resp. for SED, STR and END). Isokinetic dominant leg extensors strength was higher in STR (3.32 N?m?kg-1 vs. 2.60 and 2.74 in SED and END). During VT, peak oxygen consumption (% of VO2max) attained was 59.3 in SED, 50.8 in STR and 48.0 in END (P<0.001 between SED and other subjects). Peak heart rate (% of heart rate max) was 82.7 in SED, 80.4 in STR and 72.4 in END. In SED, dynamic exercises without extra load elicited 51.0 % of VO2max and 72.1 % of heart rate max, and perceived effort reached 15.1/20.CONCLUSIONS: VT is an unconventional type of exercise, known to enhance strength, bone density, balance and flexibility. Users are attracted by the relative passivity. In SED, VT elicits sufficient cardiovascular response to benefit overall fitness in addition to the strength effects. VT's higher acceptance as an exercise in sedentary people, compared to jogging or cycling, can lead to better adherence to physical activity. Although long-term effects of VT on health are not available, we believe this type of mixed aerobic and resistance-type exercise can be beneficial on multiple health parameters, especially cardiovascular health.

KRAS mutation testing for predicting response to anti-EGFR therapy for colorectal carcinoma: proposal for an European quality assurance program.

Novel therapeutic agents targeting the epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) have improved outcomes for patients with colorectal carcinoma. However, these therapies are effective only in a subset of patients. Activating mutations in the KRAS gene are found in 30-40% of colorectal tumors and are associated with poor response to anti-EGFR therapies. Thus, KRAS mutation status can predict which patient may or may not benefit from anti-EGFR therapy. Although many diagnostic tools have been developed for KRAS mutation analysis, validated methods and standardized testing procedures are lacking. This poses a challenge for the optimal use of anti-EGFR therapies in the management of colorectal carcinoma. Here we review the molecular basis of EGFR-targeted therapies and the resistance to treatment conferred by KRAS mutations. We also present guideline recommendations and a proposal for a European quality assurance program to help ensure accuracy and proficiency in KRAS mutation testing across the European Union.

In vitro activity of gallium maltolate against Staphylococci in logarithmic, stationary, and biofilm growth phases: comparison of conventional and calorimetric susceptibility testing methods.

Ga(3+) is a semimetal element that competes for the iron-binding sites of transporters and enzymes. We investigated the activity of gallium maltolate (GaM), an organic gallium salt with high solubility, against laboratory and clinical strains of methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus aureus (MSSA), methicillin-resistant S. aureus (MRSA), methicillin-susceptible Staphylococcus epidermidis (MSSE), and methicillin-resistant S. epidermidis (MRSE) in logarithmic or stationary phase and in biofilms. The MICs of GaM were higher for S. aureus (375 to 2000 microg/ml) than S. epidermidis (94 to 200 microg/ml). Minimal biofilm inhibitory concentrations were 3,000 to >or=6,000 microg/ml (S. aureus) and 94 to 3,000 microg/ml (S. epidermidis). In time-kill studies, GaM exhibited a slow and dose-dependent killing, with maximal action at 24 h against S. aureus of 1.9 log(10) CFU/ml (MSSA) and 3.3 log(10) CFU/ml (MRSA) at 3x MIC and 2.9 log(10) CFU/ml (MSSE) and 4.0 log(10) CFU/ml (MRSE) against S. epidermidis at 10x MIC. In calorimetric studies, growth-related heat production was inhibited by GaM at subinhibitory concentrations; and the minimal heat inhibition concentrations were 188 to 4,500 microg/ml (MSSA), 94 to 1,500 microg/ml (MRSA), and 94 to 375 microg/ml (MSSE and MRSE), which correlated well with the MICs. Thus, calorimetry was a fast, accurate, and simple method useful for investigation of antimicrobial activity at subinhibitory concentrations. In conclusion, GaM exhibited activity against staphylococci in different growth phases, including in stationary phase and biofilms, but high concentrations were required. These data support the potential topical use of GaM, including its use for the treatment of wound infections, MRSA decolonization, and coating of implants.

Testing the competitive exclusion principle using various niche parameters in a native (Natrix maura) and an introduced (N. tessellata) colubrid

Despite the increase of animal and plant introductions worldwide and the strong augmentation of the reptile trade, few invasive snake populations have been studied. Dice snakes (Natrix tessellata) were introduced to the shores of Lake Geneva (Switzerland) in the early 1920s, and are now well established. This region of introduction was previously inhabited by Viperine snakes (N. maura). Ever since these two species have been under monitoring (which began in 1996) the Viperine snake population has shown drastic decline. We examine here the possibility of trophic competition by analysing diet composition, prey size and trophic niche overlap. Spatial distribution is also assessed in order to address the question of spatial competitive exclusion. We found very similar diets, and thus a high trophic niche overlap, indicating no partitioning of the trophic resource. No arguments in favour of spatial competitive exclusion were found. Our study suggests that trophic competition may occur between the two natricines and that it may give an explanation for the drastic decline of the Viperine snake in this area. Other pathways potentially playing a role in the exclusion of the Viperine snake are discussed.

Isothermal microcalorimetry for antifungal susceptibility testing of Mucorales, Fusarium spp., and Scedosporium spp.

We evaluated isothermal microcalorimetry for real-time susceptibility testing of non-Aspergillus molds. MIC and minimal effective concentration (MEC) values of Mucorales (n = 4), Fusarium spp. (n = 4), and Scedosporium spp. (n = 4) were determined by microbroth dilution according to the Clinical Laboratory Standard Institute M38-A2 guidelines. Heat production of molds was measured at 37 °C in Sabouraud dextrose broth inoculated with 2.5 × 10(4) spores/mL in the presence of amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, caspofungin, and anidulafungin. As determined by microcalorimetry, amphotericin B was the most active agent against Mucorales (MHIC 0.06-0.125 μg/mL) and Fusarium spp. (MHIC 1-4 μg/mL), whereas voriconazole was the most active agent against Scedosporium spp. (MHIC 0.25 to 8 μg/mL). The percentage of agreement (within one 2-fold dilution) between the MHIC and MIC (or MEC) was 67%, 92%, 75%, and 83% for amphotericin B, voriconazole, posaconazole, and caspofungin, respectively. Microcalorimetry provides additional information on timing of antifungal activity, enabling further investigation of drug-mold and drug-drug interaction, and optimization of antifungal treatment.