Urban Governance und nachhaltige Quartiere: Ein Beitrag zur Förderung einer dauerhaft nachhaltigen Stadtentwicklung

Seit den 1990er Jahren werden zunehmend nachhaltige Quartiere realisiert. Dabei besteht häufig eine beachtliche Diskrepanz zwischen den Zielen, die von den beteiligten Akteuren angestrebt werden, deren Umsetzung (Realisierungsphase) und deren Erhalt auf Dauer (Nutzungsphase). Es stellt sich folglich die Frage, auf welche Weise die Projektqualität im Sinne einer nachhaltigen Quartiersentwicklung verbessert werden kann. Diese Projekte sind jedoch enorm komplex aufgrund der großen Interdisziplinarität und Interdependenz ihrer Ziele sowie der vielschichtigen Akteursstrukturen. Sie stellen daher be-sonders hohe Anforderungen an die Projektsteuerung. Das konkrete Ziel dieser Arbeit besteht darin, die Bedeutung einer Prozesssteuerung im Sinne von Urban Governance zur Realisierung und zum Erhalt nachhaltiger Quartiere zu untersuchen. Damit soll einen Beitrag zur Förderung einer nachhalti-gen Stadtentwicklung geleistet werden. Die Arbeit stützt sich auf ein umfassendes theoretisches Fundament zum Thema Governance, wobei die relevanten Elemente für den Kontext nachhaltiger Quartiere herausgearbeitet werden. Die Hypothesen prüfen die Bedeutung der Schlüsselcharakteristika von Urban Governance (Kooperation, Partizipation, Verhandlungen) für die Projektqualität während der Realisierungs- und Nutzungsphase. Eine erste empirische Untersuchung wurde an zwanzig europäischen nachhaltigen Modellquartieren vorgenommen. Stärken und Schwächen aus der Perspektive der Nachhaltigkeit werden analysiert, deren Ursachen identifiziert und Handlungsoptio-nen aufgezeigt. Die Erkenntnisse zeigen die Notwendigkeit einer Verbesserung der Projektsteuerung während der Realisierungs- und der Nutzungsphase. Auf der Grundlage dieser Erkenntnisse wird ein umfassender Ansatz zur empirischen Untersuchung von Urban Governance im Kontext nachhaltiger Quartiere entwickelt. Dieser beruht auf dem akteurzentrierten Institutionalismus und den Merkmalen der Urban Governance. Anhand dieses Ansatzes wird mithilfe von Experteninterviews der Realisierungsprozess des nach-haltigen Quartiers Kronsberg (Hannover) analysiert. Betrachtet werden dabei die beteiligten Akteure und ihre Handlungso-rientierungen, die verwendeten Schlüsselinstrumente sowie aufgetretene Divergenzen zwischen Akteuren und deren Auswirkungen auf die Projekt- und Prozessqualität. Eine Vertiefung relevanter Themenfelder wird anhand der Fallstudie Neu-Oerlikon (Zürich) vorgenommen. Diese empirische Arbeit zeigt, dass eine Prozesssteuerung im Sinne von Urban Governance im Vergleich zu einer klassis-chen hierarchischen Steuerung eine notwendige aber nicht hinreichende Bedingung zur Verbesserung der Projektqualität nachhaltiger Quartiere darstellt. An konkreten Beispielen wird herausgearbeitet, dass der Mehrwert einer solchen Steuerung nur unter bestimmten Voraussetzungen erzielt werden kann: In manchen Situationen ist die Steuerungsform Kooperation und die Interaktionsform Verhandlung in ihrer Wirksamkeit zur Sicherung der Projektqualität begrenzt und hierarchische Interventionen sind notwendig. Nicht ein bestimmtes Steuerungsmodell per se ist geeignet, sondern es kommt auf den Ein-zelfall an: auf die Akteursstruktur, die individuellen und institutionellen Handlungsorientierungen der Akteure und deren Ver-haltensweisen, die Rahmenbedingungen und die Ausgestaltung des Urban Governance-Prozesses. Wenn die Spielregeln dieses Prozesses von den Akteuren nicht wirklich angenommen und gelebt werden, dominieren individuelle und institutio-nelle Akteursinteressen zu Lasten der Projektqualität. Ferner zeigen die Untersuchungen, dass die Partizipation der zukünftigen Quartiersnutzer in der Praxis häufig unzureichend ist. Dies führt zu Einbußen in der Projektqualität. Entscheidend ist auf jeden Fall, dass mindestens ein Akteur, in der Regel die öffentliche Hand, präsent ist, der die Definition anspruchsvoller Nachhaltigkeitsstandards, deren Umsetzung und deren Erhalt sichert sowie die notwendigen Rahmenbedingungen dafür schafft. Diese Arbeit belegt darüber hinaus, dass der Erhalt der Projektqualität während der Nutzungsphase (Faktor Zeit) bisher un-zureichend beachtet und in die Projektplanung einbezogen wird. Gerade dieser Aspekt bestimmt aber, ob das Quartier auch auf Dauer dem Nachhaltigkeitsanspruch gerecht werden kann! Tatsächlich handelt es sich um einen fortlaufenden Prozess, der nicht mit der Einweihung des Quartiers abgeschlossen ist. Vor diesem Hintergrund werden relevante Handlungsfelder beschrieben und die Notwendigkeit der langfristigen Fortsetzung einer Steuerung im Sinne von Urban Governance bzw. der Herausbildung einer Urban Governance-Kultur aufgezeigt. Aus den empirischen Erhebungen werden Erfolgs- und Risikofaktoren für Urban Governance-Prozesse während der Realisierungs- und der Nutzungsphase abgeleitet. Ferner werden bisher vernachlässigte Handlungsfelder (langfristiges Umwelt-management, ökologische Finanzierungsformen, urbane Landwirtschaft, Umweltkommunikation, etc.) eruiert. Die Berücksichtigung dieser Erkenntnisse ist unerlässlich für eine Verbesserung der Projektqualität nachhaltiger Quartiere. ---------------------------------------------- Gouvernance urbaine et quartiers durables: Entre intensions et mise en oeuvre --- Résumé --- Depuis les années 90, la thématique des quartiers durables a gagné en importance, même si leur développement s'est avéré difficile. Le décalage entre les objectifs, leur mise en oeuvre et le projet tel qu'il est vécu par ses habitants est souvent important et nécessite d'être réduit. Un quartier durable est par nature un projet complexe, aux objectifs ambitieux situé à la croisée de multiples champs disciplinaires, mobilisant de nombreux acteurs aux intérêts divergents. De plus, chaque projet, du fait des ses spécificités, requiert un pilotage adapté. L'objectif principal de la recherche vise à analyser la nature du pilotage du processus de conception, de réalisation et d'exploitation des quartiers durables. Ses résultats ont pour ambition de contribuer à optimiser et promouvoir le développement urbain durable. Le fondement théorique de la recherche se base sur le concept de gouvernance urbaine, adapté au contexte particulier de la gouvernance des quartiers durables. La gouvernance urbaine, au sens où nous l'entendons, est un mode de pilotage basé sur la coopération entre les acteurs publics et privés. Les hypothèses centrales du travail testent la portée et les limites des caractéristiques-clefs de la gouvernance urbaine (coopération, participation, négociation), ainsi que l'importance de la notion de pérennité pour la qualité du projet. Dans un premier temps, nous avons analysé vingt quartiers durables modèles européens et identifié leurs atouts et leurs faiblesses en termes de durabilité, ainsi que leurs divers modes de pilotage. Les enseignements tirés de ces exemples révèlent la nécessité d'améliorer le pilotage des projets. Dans un deuxième temps, nous avons élaboré une grille d'analyse fine fondée sur l'approche institutionnelle des acteurs et les caractéristiques-clefs de la gouvernance urbaine. En nous appuyant sur cette grille, nous avons analysé le processus de conception et de réalisation du quartier durable de « Kronsberg » (Hanovre) à l'aide des éléments suivants : les acteurs (avec leurs intérêts et objectifs propres), les instruments d'aménagement du territoire, les modes de pilotage, les zones de divergence et de convergence entre les acteurs, ainsi que leurs impacts sur le processus et le projet. Dans un troisième temps, les hypothèses centrales ont été testées sur le quartier de « Neu-Oerlikon » (Zurich) afin d'approfondir et d'élargir les enseignements tirés de celui de « Kronsberg ». Les résultats des analyses mettent en évidence le fait qu'un pilotage de projet selon le modèle de la gouvernance urbaine est certes une condition nécessaire mais non suffisante pour améliorer la qualité du projet. De plus, la valeur ajoutée de la gouvernance urbaine n'est valable qu'à certaines conditions. En effet, la coopération et la négociation peuvent même, dans certaines situations, réduire la qualité du projet ! Le principal enseignement de la recherche révèle qu'il n'y a pas de mode de pilotage idéal, mais que la qualité d'un projet dépend d'une multitude de facteurs, tels que les constellations d'acteurs, leurs intérêts personnels et institutionnels, les conditions cadres et les « règles du jeu » de la gouvernance urbaine. Si les « règles du jeu » en particulier ne sont pas réellement appropriées par l'ensemble des acteurs, les intérêts et les comportements personnels ou institutionnels prédominent au détriment de la qualité du projet. De même, si la participation des futurs usagers à l'élaboration du projet de quartier durable n'est pas assurée, tant la qualité du projet que sa pérennité en pâtissent. Nous avons également constaté que la présence d'un acteur (en règle générale les autorités publiques) qui veille à la définition d'objectifs ambitieux en matière de développement durable et à leur application constitue un apport essentiel à la qualité du projet. En outre, la recherche met en évidence les carences dans le suivi et le maintien à long terme des qualités de durabilité de la phase d'exploitation des projets de quartiers durables analysés. Dans la phase d'exploitation, le degré de coopération diminue généralement et les modes de fonctionnement et de pilotage sectoriels se mettent en place au détriment de la qualité du projet. Cela confirme la nécessité de poursuivre le processus de pilotage selon le modèle de la gouvernance urbaine au-delà de la phase de réalisation des projets. La recherche précise les enjeux des champs d'action de la phase d'exploitation (domaine encore peu étudié) et démontre la pertinence du mode de pilotage préconisé. Enfin, les analyses permettent d'identifier des facteurs de réussite et de risque susceptibles d'influencer les systèmes de gouvernance urbaine, ainsi que les enjeux des domaines de la durabilité encore négligés (agriculture urbaine, gestion environnementale dans la durée, comportement des usagers, financement équitable, etc.). La prise en compte de ces enseignements est essentielle à l'amélioration de la gestion de futurs projets de quartiers durables. ---------------------------------------------- Urban Governance and Sustainable Neighbourhoods: A Contribution to a Lasting Sustainable Development --- Abstract --- Since the 1990s, sustainable neighbourhoods have become an increasingly important topic. However, their development has proven to be difficult. There is an often considerable gap, which must be reduced, between the initial goals, the way they are implemented and how the project is finally inhabited. A sustainable neighbourhood is inherently a complex project, with ambitious goals that lie at the intersection of multiple disciplines, involving numerous stakeholders with diverging interests. Moreover, each project, due to its specific characteristics, requires an adapted steering. The main goal of this research is to analyse the nature of the steering process during the planning, realisation and use of sustainable neighbourhoods. The results aim to contribute to the promotion of sustainable urban development. The theoretical foundation of this research is based on the concept of urban governance, adapted to the particular context of sustainable neighbourhoods. Urban governance is understood in this work, as a mode of project steering based on the cooperation between public and private stakeholders. The central hypotheses of this work test the importance and the limits of the key characteristics of urban governance (cooperation, participation, negotiation) as well as the importance of continuity for the project quality. To begin with, we surveyed and analysed twenty exemplary European sustainable neighbourhoods and identified their strengths and weaknesses in terms of sustainability, as well as their diverse steering modes. The lessons learned from these examples reveal the need to improve the projects' steering. Secondly we elaborated a detailed framework for analysis founded on stakeholder-centred institutionalism and the key characteristics of urban governance. By systematically applying this framework, we analysed the planning and implementation process of the sustainable neighbourhood "Kronsberg" (Hannover). Our focus was on the following dimensions: the stakeholders (with their particular interests and goals), the instruments of spatial planning, the steering modes, the points of divergence and convergence amongst the stakeholders, as well as their impacts on the process and on the project. The final step was to test the core hypotheses on the neighbourhood "Neu-Oerlikon" (Zürich) in order to broaden the lessons learned from "Kronsberg". The results of the analysis highlight the fact that an urban governance type project steering is certainly a necessary but insufficient condition to improve the project quality. Moreover, the added value of urban governance is only valid under certain conditions. In fact, cooperation and negotiation can even in certain situations reduce the project's quality! The main lesson of this research is that there is not an ideal steering mode, but rather that the quality of the project depends on numerous factors, such as the stakeholder constellation, their individual and institutional interests, the general conditions and the "rules of the game" of urban governance. If these "rules of the game" are not really appropriated by all stakeholders, individual and institutional interests and behaviours predominate at the expense of the project's quality. Likewise, if the future users' participation in the project development is insufficient, both the project's quality and its continuity suffer. We have also observed that the presence of a stakeholder (in general the public authorities) who ensures the definition of ambitious goals in terms of sustainable development and their implementation is crucial for the project's quality. Furthermore, this research highlights the deficiencies in the follow-up and long-term preservation of the sustainability qualities in the neighbourhood projects which we have analysed. In the use phase, the degree of cooperation generally diminishes. Attitudes and project management become more sectorial at the expense of the project's quality. This confirms the need to continue the steering process according to the principles of urban governance beyond the project's implementation phase. This research specifies the challenges that affect the use phase (a still neglected area) and shows the relevance of the recommended steering mode. Finally, the analyses also identify the success and risk factors that may influence urban-governance systems, as well as the challenges of still neglected fields of sustainability (urban agriculture, long-term environmental management, user behaviour, fair funding, etc.). Taking into account these outcomes is essential to improve the management of future sustainable-neighbourhood projects.

Building the niche through time: using 13,000 years of data to predict the effects of climate change on three tree species in Europe

Aim Species distribution models (SDMs) based on current species ranges underestimate the potential distribution when projected in time and/or space. A multi-temporal model calibration approach has been suggested as an alternative, and we evaluate this using 13,000 years of data. Location Europe. Methods We used fossil-based records of presence for Picea abies, Abies alba and Fagus sylvatica and six climatic variables for the period 13,000 to 1000yr bp. To measure the contribution of each 1000-year time step to the total niche of each species (the niche measured by pooling all the data), we employed a principal components analysis (PCA) calibrated with data over the entire range of possible climates. Then we projected both the total niche and the partial niches from single time frames into the PCA space, and tested if the partial niches were more similar to the total niche than random. Using an ensemble forecasting approach, we calibrated SDMs for each time frame and for the pooled database. We projected each model to current climate and evaluated the results against current pollen data. We also projected all models into the future. Results Niche similarity between the partial and the total-SDMs was almost always statistically significant and increased through time. SDMs calibrated from single time frames gave different results when projected to current climate, providing evidence of a change in the species realized niches through time. Moreover, they predicted limited climate suitability when compared with the total-SDMs. The same results were obtained when projected to future climates. Main conclusions The realized climatic niche of species differed for current and future climates when SDMs were calibrated considering different past climates. Building the niche as an ensemble through time represents a way forward to a better understanding of a species' range and its ecology in a changing climate.

Reconstruction Of Past Climate Conditions Over Central Europe From Groundwater Data

Here we present a 30 000 years low-resolution climate record reconstructed from groundwater data. The investigated site is located in the Bohemian Cretaceous Basin, in the corridor between the Scandinavian ice sheet and the Alpine ice field. Noble gas temperatures (NGT), obtained from groundwater data, preserved multicentennial temperature variability and indicated a cooling of at least 5-7 °C during the last glacial maximum (LGM). This is further confirmed by the depleted δ18O and δ2H values at the LGM. High excess air (ΔNe) at the end of the Pleistocene is possibly related to abrupt changes in recharge dynamics due to progression and retreat of ice covers and permafrost. These results agree with the fact that during the LGM permafrost and small glaciers developed in the inner valleys of the Giant Mountains (located in the watershed of the aquifers). A temporal decrease of deuterium excess from the pre-industrial Holocene to present days is linked to an increase of the air temperatures, and probably also to an increase of water pressure at the source region of precipitation over the past few hundred years

Emergence of Swiss metropole and scaling properties of urban clusters

Defining the limits of an urban agglomeration is essential both for fundamental and applied studies in quantitative and theoretical geography. A simple and consistent way for defining such urban clusters is important for performing different statistical analysis and comparisons. Traditionally, agglomerations are defined using a rather qualitative approach based on various statistical measures. This definition varies generally from one country to another, and the data taken into account are different. In this paper, we explore the use of the City Clustering Algorithm (CCA) for the agglomeration definition in Switzerland. This algorithm provides a systemic and easy way to define an urban area based only on population data. The CCA allows the specification of the spatial resolution for defining the urban clusters. The results from different resolutions are compared and analysed, and the effect of filtering the data investigated. Different scales and parameters allow highlighting different phenomena. The study of Zipf's law using the visual rank-size rule shows that it is valid only for some specific urban clusters, inside a narrow range of the spatial resolution of the CCA. The scale where emergence of one main cluster occurs can also be found in the analysis using Zipf's law. The study of the urban clusters at different scales using the lacunarity measure - a complementary measure to the fractal dimension - allows to highlight the change of scale at a given range.

Climate change and plant distribution: local models predict high-elevation persistence

Mountain ecosystems will likely be affected by global warming during the 21st century, with substantial biodiversity loss predicted by species distribution models (SDMs). Depending on the geographic extent, elevation range and spatial resolution of data used in making these models, different rates of habitat loss have been predicted, with associated risk of species extinction. Few coordinated across-scale comparisons have been made using data of different resolution and geographic extent. Here, we assess whether climate-change induced habitat losses predicted at the European scale (10x10' grid cells) are also predicted from local scale data and modeling (25x25m grid cells) in two regions of the Swiss Alps. We show that local-scale models predict persistence of suitable habitats in up to 100% of species that were predicted by a European-scale model to lose all their suitable habitats in the area. Proportion of habitat loss depends on climate change scenario and study area. We find good agreement between the mismatch in predictions between scales and the fine-grain elevation range within 10x10' cells. The greatest prediction discrepancy for alpine species occurs in the area with the largest nival zone. Our results suggest elevation range as the main driver for the observed prediction discrepancies. Local scale projections may better reflect the possibility for species to track their climatic requirement toward higher elevations.

Providing more informative projections of climate change impact on plant distribution in a mountain environment

Summary Due to their conic shape and the reduction of area with increasing elevation, mountain ecosystems were early identified as potentially very sensitive to global warming. Moreover, mountain systems may experience unprecedented rates of warming during the next century, two or three times higher than that records of the 20th century. In this context, species distribution models (SDM) have become important tools for rapid assessment of the impact of accelerated land use and climate change on the distribution plant species. In my study, I developed and tested new predictor variables for species distribution models (SDM), specific to current and future geographic projections of plant species in a mountain system, using the Western Swiss Alps as model region. Since meso- and micro-topography are relevant to explain geographic patterns of plant species in mountain environments, I assessed the effect of scale on predictor variables and geographic projections of SDM. I also developed a methodological framework of space-for-time evaluation to test the robustness of SDM when projected in a future changing climate. Finally, I used a cellular automaton to run dynamic simulations of plant migration under climate change in a mountain landscape, including realistic distance of seed dispersal. Results of future projections for the 21st century were also discussed in perspective of vegetation changes monitored during the 20th century. Overall, I showed in this study that, based on the most severe A1 climate change scenario and realistic dispersal simulations of plant dispersal, species extinctions in the Western Swiss Alps could affect nearly one third (28.5%) of the 284 species modeled by 2100. With the less severe 61 scenario, only 4.6% of species are predicted to become extinct. However, even with B1, 54% (153 species) may still loose more than 80% of their initial surface. Results of monitoring of past vegetation changes suggested that plant species can react quickly to the warmer conditions as far as competition is low However, in subalpine grasslands, competition of already present species is probably important and limit establishment of newly arrived species. Results from future simulations also showed that heavy extinctions of alpine plants may start already in 2040, but the latest in 2080. My study also highlighted the importance of fine scale and regional. assessments of climate change impact on mountain vegetation, using more direct predictor variables. Indeed, predictions at the continental scale may fail to predict local refugees or local extinctions, as well as loss of connectivity between local populations. On the other hand, migrations of low-elevation species to higher altitude may be difficult to predict at the local scale. Résumé La forme conique des montagnes ainsi que la diminution de surface dans les hautes altitudes sont reconnues pour exposer plus sensiblement les écosystèmes de montagne au réchauffement global. En outre, les systèmes de montagne seront sans doute soumis durant le 21ème siècle à un réchauffement deux à trois fois plus rapide que celui mesuré durant le 20ème siècle. Dans ce contexte, les modèles prédictifs de distribution géographique de la végétation se sont imposés comme des outils puissants pour de rapides évaluations de l'impact des changements climatiques et de la transformation du paysage par l'homme sur la végétation. Dans mon étude, j'ai développé de nouvelles variables prédictives pour les modèles de distribution, spécifiques à la projection géographique présente et future des plantes dans un système de montagne, en utilisant les Préalpes vaudoises comme zone d'échantillonnage. La méso- et la microtopographie étant particulièrement adaptées pour expliquer les patrons de distribution géographique des plantes dans un environnement montagneux, j'ai testé les effets d'échelle sur les variables prédictives et sur les projections des modèles de distribution. J'ai aussi développé un cadre méthodologique pour tester la robustesse potentielle des modèles lors de projections pour le futur. Finalement, j'ai utilisé un automate cellulaire pour simuler de manière dynamique la migration future des plantes dans le paysage et dans quatre scénarios de changement climatique pour le 21ème siècle. J'ai intégré dans ces simulations des mécanismes et des distances plus réalistes de dispersion de graines. J'ai pu montrer, avec les simulations les plus réalistes, que près du tiers des 284 espèces considérées (28.5%) pourraient être menacées d'extinction en 2100 dans le cas du plus sévère scénario de changement climatique A1. Pour le moins sévère des scénarios B1, seulement 4.6% des espèces sont menacées d'extinctions, mais 54% (153 espèces) risquent de perdre plus 80% de leur habitat initial. Les résultats de monitoring des changements de végétation dans le passé montrent que les plantes peuvent réagir rapidement au réchauffement climatique si la compétition est faible. Dans les prairies subalpines, les espèces déjà présentes limitent certainement l'arrivée de nouvelles espèces par effet de compétition. Les résultats de simulation pour le futur prédisent le début d'extinctions massives dans les Préalpes à partir de 2040, au plus tard en 2080. Mon travail démontre aussi l'importance d'études régionales à échelle fine pour évaluer l'impact des changements climatiques sur la végétation, en intégrant des variables plus directes. En effet, les études à échelle continentale ne tiennent pas compte des micro-refuges, des extinctions locales ni des pertes de connectivité entre populations locales. Malgré cela, la migration des plantes de basses altitudes reste difficile à prédire à l'échelle locale sans modélisation plus globale.

Elevation gradient of successful plant traits for colonizing alpine summits under climate change

Upward migration of plant species due to climate change has become evident in several European mountain ranges. It is still, however, unclear whether certain plant traits increase the probability that a species will colonize mountain summits or vanish, and whether these traits differ with elevation. Here, we used data from a repeat survey of the occurrence of plant species on 120 summits, ranging from 2449 to 3418 m asl, in south-eastern Switzerland to identify plant traits that increase the probability of colonization or extinction in the 20th century. Species numbers increased across all plant traits considered. With some traits, however, numbers increased proportionally more. The most successful colonizers seemed to prefer warmer temperatures and well-developed soils. They produced achene fruits and/or seeds with pappus appendages. Conversely, cushion plants and species with capsule fruits were less efficient as colonizers. Observed changes in traits along the elevation gradient mainly corresponded to the natural distribution of traits. Extinctions did not seem to be clearly related to any trait. Our study showed that plant traits varied along both temporal and elevational gradients. While seeds with pappus seemed to be advantageous for colonization, most of the trait changes also mirrored previous gradients of traits along elevation and hence illustrated the general upward migration of plant species. An understanding of the trait characteristics of colonizing species is crucial for predicting future changes in mountain vegetation under climate change.

Density, climate and varying return points: an analysis of long-term population fluctuations in the threatened European tree frog.

Experimental research has identified many putative agents of amphibian decline, yet the population-level consequences of these agents remain unknown, owing to lack of information on compensatory density dependence in natural populations. Here, we investigate the relative importance of intrinsic (density-dependent) and extrinsic (climatic) factors impacting the dynamics of a tree frog (Hyla arborea) population over 22 years. A combination of log-linear density dependence and rainfall (with a 2-year time lag corresponding to development time) explain 75% of the variance in the rate of increase. Such fluctuations around a variable return point might be responsible for the seemingly erratic demography and disequilibrium dynamics of many amphibian populations.

Genetic diversity in caribou linked to past and future climate change

Climate-driven range fluctuations during the Pleistocene have continuously reshaped species distribution leading to populations of contrasting genetic diversity. Contemporary climate change is similarly influencing species distribution and population structure, with important consequences for patterns of genetic diversity and species' evolutionary potential1. Yet few studies assess the impacts of global climatic changes on intraspecific genetic variation2, 3, 4, 5. Here, combining analyses of molecular data with time series of predicted species distributions and a model of diffusion through time over the past 21 kyr, we unravel caribou response to past and future climate changes across its entire Holarctic distribution. We found that genetic diversity is geographically structured with two main caribou lineages, one originating from and confined to Northeastern America, the other originating from Euro-Beringia but also currently distributed in western North America. Regions that remained climatically stable over the past 21 kyr maintained a high genetic diversity and are also predicted to experience higher climatic stability under future climate change scenarios. Our interdisciplinary approach, combining genetic data and spatial analyses of climatic stability (applicable to virtually any taxon), represents a significant advance in inferring how climate shapes genetic diversity and impacts genetic structure.

Climate and sea-level variations along the northwestern Tethyan margin during the Valanginian C-isotope excursion: Mineralogical evidence from the Vocontian Basin (SE France)

A high resolution mineralogical study (bulk-rock and clay-fraction) was carried out upon the hemipelagic strata of the Angles section (Vocontian Basin, SE France) in which the Valanginian positive C-isotope excursion occurs. To investigate sea-level fluctuations and climate change respectively, a Detrital Index (DI: (phyllosilicates and quartz)/calcite) and a Weathering Index (WI: kaolinite/(illite + chlorite)) were established and compared to second-order sea-level fluctuations. In addition, the mineralogical data were compared with the High Nutrient Index (HNI, based on calcareous nannofossil taxa) data obtained by Duchamp-Alphonse et al. (2007), in order to assess the link between the hydrolysis conditions recorded on the surrounding continents and the trophic conditions inferred for the Vocontian Basin. It appears that the mineralogical distribution along the northwestern Tethyan margin is mainly influenced by sea-level changes during the Early Valanginian (Pertransiens to Stephanophorus ammonite Zones) and by climate variations from the late Early Valanginian to the base of the Hauterivian (top of the Stephanophorus to the Radiatus ammonite Zones). The sea-level fall observed in the Pertransiens ammonite Zone (Early Valanginian) is well expressed by an increase in detrital inputs (an increase in the DI) associated with a more proximal source and a shallower marine environment, whereas the sea-level rise recorded in the Stephanophorus ammonite Zone corresponds to a decrease in detrital influx (a decrease in the DI) as the source becomes more distal and the environment deeper. Interpretation of both DI and WI, indicates that the positive C-isotope excursion (top of the Stephanophorus to the Verrucosum ammonite Zones) is associated with an increase of detrital inputs under a stable, warm and humid climate, probably related to greenhouse conditions, the strongest hydrolysis conditions being reached at the maximum of the positive C-isotope excursion. From the Verrucosum ammonite Zone to the base of the Hauterivian (Radiatus ammonite Zone) climatic conditions evolved from weak hydrolysis conditions and, most likely, a cooler climate (resulting in a decrease in detrital inputs) to a seasonal climate in which more humid seasons alternated with more arid ones. The comparison of the WI to the HNI shows that the nutrification recorded al: the Angles section from the top of the Stephanophorus to the Radiatus ammonite Zones (including the positive C-isotope shift), is associated with climatic changes in the source areas. At that time, increased nutrient inputs were generally triggered by increased weathering processes in the source areas due to acceleration in the hydrological cycle under greenhouse conditions This scenario accords with the widely questioned palaeoenvironmental model proposed by Lini et al., (1992) and suggests that increasing greenhouse conditions are the main factor that drove the palaeoenvironmental changes observed in the hemipelagic realm of the Vocontian Basin, during the Valanginian positive C-isotope shift. This high-resolution mineralogical study highlights short-term climatic changes during the Valanginian, probably associated to rapid changes in the C-cycle. Coeval Massive Parana-Etendeka flood basalt eruptions may explain such rapid perturbations. (C) 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Impacts of climate change on Swiss biodiversity: An indicator taxa approach

We present a new indicator taxa approach to the prediction of climate change effects on biodiversity at the national level in Switzerland. As indicators, we select a set of the most widely distributed species that account for 95% of geographical variation in sampled species richness of birds, butterflies, and vascular plants. Species data come from a national program designed to monitor spatial and temporal trends in species richness. We examine some opportunities and limitations in using these data. We develop ecological niche models for the species as functions of both climate and land cover variables. We project these models to the future using climate predictions that correspond to two IPCC 3rd assessment scenarios for the development of 'greenhouse' gas emissions. We find that models that are calibrated with Swiss national monitoring data perform well in 10-fold cross-validation, but can fail to capture the hot-dry end of environmental gradients that constrain some species distributions. Models for indicator species in all three higher taxa predict that climate change will result in turnover in species composition even where there is little net change in predicted species richness. Indicator species from high elevations lose most areas of suitable climate even under the relatively mild B2 scenario. We project some areas to increase in the number of species for which climate conditions are suitable early in the current century, but these areas become less suitable for a majority of species by the end of the century. Selection of indicator species based on rank prevalence results in a set of models that predict observed species richness better than a similar set of species selected based on high rank of model AUC values. An indicator species approach based on selected species that are relatively common may facilitate the use of national monitoring data for predicting climate change effects on the distribution of biodiversity.