Identifying psychotic defenses in a clinical interview.

The Defense Mechanisms Rating Scales (DMRS), one of the most widely used and validated instruments in the study of defense mechanisms, does not include psychotic defenses. The Psychotic-DMRS (P-DMRS) has been developed to include 6 psychotic defense mechanisms: psychotic denial, autistic withdrawal, distortion, delusional projection, fragmentation, and concretization. We discuss psychotic defenses, including the difference between psychotic defenses and psychotic symptoms. Six clinical illustrations demonstrate how the 6 P-DMRS defenses can be identified in patients' narratives selected from the transcripts of dynamic interviews. Implications with respect to patient evaluation and treatment are discussed.

Sustained antipsychotic effect of metacognitive training in psychosis: a randomized-controlled study.

Persistent psychotic symptoms represent a major challenge for psychiatric care. Basic research has shown that psychotic symptoms are associated with cognitive biases. Metacognitive training (MCT) aims at helping patients to become aware of these biases and to improve problem-solving. Fifty-two participants fulfilling diagnostic criteria of schizophrenia or schizoaffective disorders and persistent delusions and stabilized antipsychotic medication were enrolled in this study. Following baseline assessment patients were randomized either to treatment as usual (TAU) conditions or TAU+MCT. The intervention consisted of eight weekly 1-hour sessions (maximum: 8 hours). Participants were assessed at 8 weeks and 6-months later by blind assessors. Participants were assessed with the Psychotic Symptoms Rating Scales (PSYRATS) and the positive subscale of the PANSS. Between-group differences in post- and pre-test values were significant at a medium effect size in favor of the MCT for the PSYRATS delusion scale and the positive scale of the PANSS both at post and follow-up. The results of this study indicate that MCT training has a surplus antipsychotic effect for patients suffering from schizophrenia-related disorders who demonstrate only a partial response to antipsychotic treatment and that the effect of the intervention persists for at least 6 months after the intervention.

What factors influence long-term antidepressant use in primary care? Findings from the Australian diamond cohort study.

BACKGROUND: Antidepressants are one of the most commonly prescribed drugs in primary care. The rise in use is mostly due to an increasing number of long-term users of antidepressants (LTU AD). Little is known about the factors driving increased long-term use. We examined the socio-demographic, clinical factors and health service use characteristics associated with LTU AD to extend our understanding of the factors that may be driving the increase in antidepressant use. METHODS: Cross-sectional analysis of 789 participants with probable depression (CES-D≥16) recruited from 30 randomly selected Australian general practices to take part in a ten-year cohort study about depression were surveyed about their antidepressant use. RESULTS: 165 (21.0%) participants reported <2 years of antidepressant use and 145 (18.4%) reported ≥2 years of antidepressant use. After adjusting for depression severity, LTU AD was associated with: single (OR 1.56, 95%CI 1.05-2.32) or recurrent episode of depression (3.44, 2.06-5.74); using SSRIs (3.85, 2.03-7.33), sedatives (2.04, 1.29-3.22), or antipsychotics (4.51, 1.67-12.17); functional limitations due to long-term illness (2.81, 1.55-5.08), poor/fair self-rated health (1.57, 1.14-2.15), inability to work (2.49, 1.37-4.53), benefits as main source of income (2.15, 1.33-3.49), GP visits longer than 20min (1.79, 1.17-2.73); rating GP visits as moderately to extremely helpful (2.71, 1.79-4.11), and more self-help practices (1.16, 1.09-1.23). LIMITATIONS: All measures were self-report. Sample may not be representative of culturally different or adolescent populations. Cross-sectional design raises possibility of "confounding by indication". CONCLUSIONS: Long-term antidepressant use is relatively common in primary care. It occurs within the context of complex mental, physical and social morbidities. Whilst most long-term use is associated with a history of recurrent depression there remains a significant opportunity for treatment re-evaluation and timely discontinuation.

Oral and intravenous methadone use: some clinical and pharmacokinetic aspects.

A sample of 15 patients participating in an injectable methadone trial and of 15 patients in an oral methadone maintenance treatment, who admitted injecting part or all of their methadone take-home doses, were compared to 20 patients in maintenance treatment who use methadone exclusively by mouth. The present study confirms the poorer general health, the higher levels of emotional, psychological or psychiatric problems, the higher use of illicit drugs, and the higher number of problems related to employment and support associated with the use of the intravenous mode of administration of methadone. As expected, due to the shunt of metabolism in the gut wall and of the liver first-pass effect, higher concentration to dose ratios of (R)-methadone, which is the active enantiomer, were measured in the intravenous group (23% increase). This difference reached an almost statistically significant value (P = 0.054). This raises the question whether the effect of a higher methadone dose could be unconsciously sought by some of the intravenous methadone users.

Impact of stressful life event on the global functioning outcome after an assertive community treatment

Background: Assertive community treatment (ACT) was reported to be an effective treatment to improve global functioning of ultra-high risk (UHR) adolescents. However, the infl uence of stressful life event (SLE) was not extensively studied which represent our objective. Method: The SLE (encompassing adoption, migration, family member's deceased, sexual or physical abuse, etc.) of 20 UHR adolescents, treated with an ACT model, were rated. 10 adolescents having 0 to 1 SLE (mainly parents' divorce; low SLE group) were compared 10 adolescents with 2 to 5 SLE (high SLE group). The adolescents were assessed at baseline and after treatment with the Health of Nation Outcome Scale for Children and Adolescents (HoNOSCA). The HoNOSCA allowed rating different diffi culties such as behavior, symptoms, disorders and social. Results: First, results on the whole sample indicated signifi cant improvement after ACT (compared to baseline) on the total (P = .04), symptoms (P = .025) and social (P = .009) scores of the HoNOSCA. Second, the improvement on the HoNOSCA's score of the high SLE group were signifi cantly higher for the total (P = .016), symptoms (P = .019) and behavior (P = .033) scores compared to the low SLE group. Discussion/Conclusion: Globally, ACT seems to be an appropriate treatment to enhance global functioning and more specifi cally the social and symptoms diffi culties of UHR adolescents. Additionally, UHR adolescents with a high numbers of SLE were observed to have a better benefi t of the ACT on global, symptoms and behavioral diffi culties.

Combined written and oral information prior to gastrointestinal endoscopy compared with oral information alone: a randomized trial.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about how to most effectively deliver relevant information to patients scheduled for endoscopy. METHODS: To assess the effects of combined written and oral information, compared with oral information alone on the quality of information before endoscopy and the level of anxiety. We designed a prospective study in two Swiss teaching hospitals which enrolled consecutive patients scheduled for endoscopy over a three-month period. Patients were randomized either to receiving, along with the appointment notice, an explanatory leaflet about the upcoming examination, or to oral information delivered by each patient's doctor. Evaluation of quality of information was rated on scales between 0 (none received) and 5 (excellent). The analysis of outcome variables was performed on the basis of intention to treat-analysis. Multivariate analysis of predictors of information scores was performed by linear regression analysis. RESULTS: Of 718 eligible patients 577 (80%) returned their questionnaire. Patients who received written leaflets (N = 278) rated the quality of information they received higher than those informed verbally (N = 299), for all 8 quality-of-information items. Differences were significant regarding information about the risks of the procedure (3.24 versus 2.26, p < 0.001), how to prepare for the procedure (3.56 versus 3.23, p = 0.036), what to expect after the procedure (2.99 versus 2.59, p < 0.001), and the 8 quality-of-information items (3.35 versus 3.02, p = 0.002). The two groups reported similar levels of anxiety before procedure (p = 0.66), pain during procedure (p = 0.20), tolerability throughout the procedure (p = 0.76), problems after the procedure (p = 0.22), and overall rating of the procedure between poor and excellent (p = 0.82). CONCLUSION: Written information led to more favourable assessments of the quality of information and had no impact on patient anxiety nor on the overall assessment of the endoscopy. Because structured and comprehensive written information is perceived as beneficial by patients, gastroenterologists should clearly explain to their patients the risks, benefits and alternatives of endoscopic procedures. Trial registration: Current Controlled trial number: ISRCTN34382782.

Monnaie, citoyenneté et globalisation financière. Les citoyens entre protection sociale et promesses de la capitalisation boursière

La monnaie a été étudiée par des économistes hétérodoxes, des sociologues et des historiens qui ont souligné ses rapports à l'ordre collectif, mais elle n'est que rarement analysée sous l'angle de la citoyenneté. Notre thèse propose une réflexion théorique sur quatre types de fonctions (politique, symbolique, socioéconomique et psychoaffective) qui permettent à la monnaie de jouer un rôle de médiation de la citoyenneté. A partir d'une perspective qui combine les apports de l'économie politique internationale et de l'école de la régulation, nous montrons que cette médiation ne mobilise pas seulement des mécanismes sociopolitiques nationaux, mais aussi des mécanismes internationaux qui rétroagissent sur la sphère domestique des États et affectent leur capacité à définir leur régime de citoyenneté. Cette relation est analysée dans le contexte de l'institutionnalisation du système monétaire international de Bretton Woods (1944) et du développement de la globalisation financière depuis les années 1970. Si la monnaie a été mise au service d'un principe de protection des droits sociaux des citoyens contre les pressions financières extérieures après la Seconde guerre mondiale, elle contribue aujourd'hui à l'ouverture de la sphère domestique des Etats aux flux de capitaux transnationaux et à la création d'un ordre politique et juridique favorable aux droits des investisseurs. Cette dynamique est impulsée par l'essor de nouveaux intermédiaires financiers (notamment les agences de notation et les investisseurs institutionnels) et l'émergence concomitante d'une nouvelle forme d'Etat légitimée à partir d'un discours politique néolibéral insistant sur la quête de compétitivité, la réduction de la protection sociale et la responsabilisation individuelle. Elle se traduit par la privatisation des régimes de retraite et le développement des politiques d'éducation financière qui incitent les citoyens à se comporter en « preneurs de risques » actifs et responsables, assurant eux-mêmes leur sécurité économique à travers le placement de leur épargne retraite sur les marchés financiers. Nous soulignons toutefois les difficultés institutionnelles, cognitives et socioéconomiques qui rendent cette transformation de la citoyenneté contradictoire et problématique. Money has been studied by heterodox economists, sociologists and historians who stressed its relationship to collective order. However, it has hardly been analysed from the viewpoint of its relationship to citizenship. We propose a theoretical account of four types of functions (political, symbolic, socioeconomic and psychoaffective) enabling money to operate as a mediation of citizenship. From a perspective that combines the contributions of international political economy and the regulation school, we show that this mediation mobilises not only national sociopolitical mechanisms, but also international mechanisms which feed back on the domestic sphere of states and affect their capacity to define their regime of citizenship. This relationship is analysed in the context of the institutionalisation of the international monetary system of Bretton Woods (1944) and the development of financial globalization since the 1970s. If money has served to protect the social rights of citizens against external financial pressures after the Second World War, today it contributes to the opening of the domestic sphere of states to transnational capital flows and to the creation of a political and legal order favorable to the rights of investors. This dynamic is driven by the rise of new financial intermediaries (in particular rating agencies and institutional investisors) and the simultaneous emergence of a new form of state legitimized from a neoliberal political discourse emphasizing the quest for competitiveness, reduced social protection and individual responsibilization. It results in the privatization of pension systems and the development of policies of financial education that encourage citizens to behave as active and responsible « risk takers », ensuring their own economic security through the investment of their savings retirement on financial markets. However, we emphasize the institutional, cognitive and socioeconomic difficulties that make this transformation of citizenship contradictory and problematic. - Money has been studied by heterodox economists, sociologists and historians who stressed its relationship to collective order. However, it has hardly been analysed from the viewpoint of its relationship to citizenship. We propose a theoretical account of four types of functions (political, symbolic, socioeconomic and psychoaffective) enabling money to operate as a mediation of citizenship. From a perspective that combines the contributions of international political economy and the regulation school, we show that this mediation mobilises not only national sociopolitical mechanisms, but also international mechanisms which feed back on the domestic sphere of states and affect their capacity to define their regime of citizenship. This relationship is analysed in the context of the institutionalisation of the international monetary system of Bretton Woods (1944) and the development of financial globalization since the 1970s. If money has served to protect the social rights of citizens against external financial pressures after the Second World War, today it contributes to the opening of the domestic sphere of states to transnational capital flows and to the creation of a political and legal order favorable to the rights of investors. This dynamic is driven by the rise of new financial intermediaries (in particular rating agencies and institutional investisors) and the simultaneous emergence of a new form of state legitimized from a neoliberal political discourse emphasizing the quest for competitiveness, reduced social protection and individual responsibilization. It results in the privatization of pension systems and the development of policies of financial education that encourage citizens to behave as active and responsible « risk takers », ensuring their own economic security through the investment of their savings retirement on financial markets. However, we emphasize the institutional, cognitive and socioeconomic difficulties that make this transformation of citizenship problematic.

Stereologic estimates of total spinophilin-immunoreactive spine number in area 9 and the CA1 field: Relationship with the progression of Alzheimer's disease

The loss of presynaptic markers is thought to represent a strong pathologic correlate of cognitive decline in Alzheimer's disease (AD). Spinophilin is a postsynaptic marker mainly located to the heads of dendritic spines. We assessed total numbers of spinophilin-immunoreactive puncta. in the CA I and CA3 fields of hippocampus and area 9 in 18 elderly individuals with various degrees of cognitive decline. The decrease in spinophilin-immunoreactivity was significantly related to both Braak neurofibrillary tangle (NFT) staging and clinical severity but not A beta deposition staging. The total number of spinophilin-immunoreactive puncta in CA I field and area 9 were significantly related to MMSE scores and predicted 23.5 and 61.9% of its variability. The relationship between total number of spinophilin-immunoreactive puncta in CA I field and MMSE scores did not persist when adjusting for Braak NFT staging. In contrast, the total number of spinophilin-immunoreactive puncta in area 9 was still significantly related to the cognitive outcome explaining an extra 9.6% of MMSE and 25.6% of the Clinical Dementia Rating scores variability. Our data suggest that neocortical dendritic spine loss is an independent parameter to consider in AD clinicopathologic correlations.

Increased prevalence of bladder and intestinal dysfunction in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is predominantly characterized by a progressive loss of motor function. While autonomic dysfunction has been described in ALS, little is known about the prevalence of lower urinary tract symptoms (LUTS) and intestinal dysfunction. We investigated disease severity, LUTS and intestinal dysfunction in 43 patients with ALS attending our outpatient department applying the ALS functional rating scale, the International Consultation on Incontinence Modular Questionnaire, the Urinary Distress Inventory and the Cleveland Clinic Incontinence Score. Results were compared to the German population of a cross-sectional study assessing LUTS in the healthy population, the EPIC study. Results showed that urinary incontinence was increased in patients with ALS aged ≥ 60 years compared to the EPIC cohort (female: 50%/19% (ALS/EPIC), p = 0.026; male: 36%/11% (ALS/EPIC), p = 0.002). No difference was seen at 40-59 years of age. Urge incontinence was the predominant presentation (73% of symptoms). A high symptom burden was stated (ICIQ-SF quality of life subscore 5.5/10). Intake of muscle relaxants and anticholinergics was associated with both urinary incontinence and severity of symptoms. Furthermore, a high prevalence of constipation (46%), but not stool incontinence (9%), was noted. In conclusion, the increased prevalence of urge incontinence and high symptom burden imply that in patients with ALS, LUTS should be increasingly investigated for.

Early clarification processes in clients presenting with borderline personality disorder: Relations with symptom level and change

Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy (COP), an integrative treatment form with a basis in process-experiential psychotherapy, is particularly relevant for clients with Personality Disorders (PDs). We argue here that two related core therapeutic COP principles, "dual action regulation" and "interactional games" have consequences for symptom severity and therapeutic outcome for clients with PDs. A high quality COP clarification process requires that client's interactional games may be quickly assessed and treated in all (preferably early) therapy sessions. These processes can be observed and measured using the observer-rated Bochum Process and Relationship Rating Scales (BPRRS) which measure both clients' and therapists' contributions to the quality of the clarification processes engaged in therapy. This measure has been successfully applied to COP-therapies, but not, as yet, to therapies other than experiential, nor to specific client populations such as borderline personality disorder. The present study is a first attempt to evaluate the application of COP processes to other therapies and populations. We measured action regulation and interactional games using the BPRRS during intake sessions of a 10-session psychodynamic treatment of borderline personality disorder for a total of N = 30 clients and N = 8 therapists. Significant relationships were found between the client's degree of interactional games and both pretherapy symptom level and symptom change across therapy. These results are discussed in the context of Clarification-Oriented Psychotherapy, and more generally Person-Centered and Process-Experiential Psychotherapies. The potential relevance of the findings for psychodynamic psychotherapists are explored as well as the potential usefulness of taking into account a detailed analysis of interactional games for the training of psychotherapists working with any model of therapy working with clients presenting with BPD.

Experience of meaning in life in bereaved informal caregivers of palliative care patients.

PURPOSE: Providing care for terminally ill family members places an enormous burden on informal caregivers. Meaning in life (MiL) may be a protective factor, but is jeopardised in caregiving and bereavement. This study evaluates the following questions: To what extent do bereaved informal caregivers of palliative care (PC) patients experience meaning in their lives? What differences emerge in carers compared to the general German population? How does MiL relate to well-being in former caregivers? METHODS: Eighty-four bereaved PC caregivers completed the Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation, the Brief Symptom Inventory, the WHOQOL-BREF, a single-item numerical rating scale of quality of life, and the Satisfaction with Life Scale. The experience of MiL of bereaved caregivers was compared to a representative population sample (n=977). RESULTS: The overall MiL fulfillment of bereaved caregivers (69 % female, age 55.5 ± 12.9 years) was significantly lower than in the general population (68.5 ± 19.2 vs. 83.3 ± 14, p<.001), as was the overall importance ascribed to their meaning framework (76.6 ± 13.6 vs. 85.6 ± 12.3, p< .001). PC caregivers are far more likely to list friends, leisure, nature/animals, and altruism. Higher MiL was correlated with better life satisfaction and quality of life. CONCLUSION: Coping with the loss of a loved one is associated with changes in MiL framework and considerably impairs a carer's experience of MiL fulfillment. Individual MiL is associated with well-being in PC caregivers during early bereavement. Specific interventions for carers targeted at meaning reconstruction during palliative care and bereavement are needed to help individuals regain a sense of meaning and purpose.

Interhemispheric distribution of Alzheimer disease and vascular pathology in brain aging

BACKGROUND AND PURPOSE: Most of the neuropathological studies in brain aging were based on the assumption of a symmetrical right-left hemisphere distribution of both Alzheimer disease and vascular pathology. To explore the impact of asymmetrical lesion formation on cognition, we performed a clinicopathological analysis of 153 cases with mixed pathology except macroinfarcts. METHODS: Cognitive status was assessed prospectively using the Clinical Dementia Rating scale; neuropathological evaluation included assessment of Braak neurofibrillary tangle and Ass deposition staging, microvascular pathology, and lacunes. The right-left hemisphere differences in neuropathological scores were evaluated using the Wilcoxon signed rank test. The relationship between the interhemispheric distribution of lesions and Clinical Dementia Rating scores was assessed using ordered logistic regression. RESULTS: Unlike Braak neurofibrillary tangle and Ass deposition staging, vascular scores were significantly higher in the left hemisphere for all Clinical Dementia Rating scores. A negative relationship was found between Braak neurofibrillary tangle, but not Ass staging, and vascular scores in cases with moderate to severe dementia. In both hemispheres, Braak neurofibrillary tangle staging was the main determinant of cognitive decline followed by vascular scores and Ass deposition staging. The concomitant predominance of Alzheimer disease and vascular pathology in the right hemisphere was associated with significantly higher Clinical Dementia Rating scores. CONCLUSIONS: Our data show that the cognitive impact of Alzheimer disease and vascular lesions in mixed cases may be assessed unilaterally without major information loss. However, interhemispheric differences and, in particular, increased vascular and Alzheimer disease burden in the right hemisphere may increase the risk for dementia in this group.

Sequential therapist interventions and the therapeutic alliance: a pilot study

(from the journal abstract) Scientific interest for the concept of alliance has been maintained and stimulated by repeated findings that a strong alliance is associated with facilitative treatment process and favourable treatment outcome. However, because the alliance is not in itself a therapeutic technique, these findings were unsuccessful in bringing about significant improvements in clinical practice. An essential issue in modern psychotherapeutic research concerns the relation between common factors which are known to explain great variance in empirical results and the specific therapeutic techniques which are the primary basis of clinical training and practice. This pilot study explored sequences in therapist interventions over four sessions of brief psychodynamic investigation. It aims at determining if patterns of interventions can be found during brief psychodynamic investigation and if these patterns can be associated with differences in the therapeutic alliance. Therapist interventions where coded using the Psychodynamic Intervention Rating Scale (PIRS) which enables the classification of each therapist utterance into one of 9 categories of interpretive interventions (defence interpretation, transference interpretation), supportive interventions (question, clarification, association, reflection, supportive strategy) or interventions about the therapeutic frame (work-enhancing statement, contractual arrangement). Data analysis was done using lag sequential analysis, a statistical procedure which identifies contingent relationships in time among a large number of behaviours. The sample includes N = 20 therapist-patient dyads assigned to three groups with: (1) a high and stable alliance profile, (2) a low and stable alliance profile and (3) an improving alliance profile. Results suggest that therapists most often have one single intention when interacting with patients. Large sequences of questions, associations and clarifications were found, which indicate that if a therapist asks a question, clarifies or associates, there is a significant probability that he will continue doing so. A single theme sequence involving frame interventions was also observed. These sequences were found in all three alliance groups. One exception was found for mixed sequences of interpretations and supportive interventions. The simultaneous use of these two interventions was associated with a high or an improving alliance over the course of treatment, but not with a low and stable alliance where only single theme sequences of interpretations were found. In other words, in this last group, therapists were either supportive or interpretative, whereas with high or improving alliance, interpretations were always given along with supportive interventions. This finding provides evidence that examining therapist interpretation individually can only yield incomplete findings. How interpretations were given is important for alliance building. It also suggests that therapists should carefully dose their interpretations and be supportive when necessary in order to build a strong therapeutic alliance. And from a research point of view, to study technical interventions, we must look into dynamic variables such as dosage, the supportive quality of an intervention, and timing. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2005 APA, all rights reserved)

Effect of modafinil on subjective fatigue in multiple sclerosis and stroke patients.

BACKGROUND: Modafinil has anecdotal response to neurological fatigue, but such an effect may depend on the type and location of cerebral impairment. OBJECTIVES: It was the aim of this study to compare fatigue observed in different neurological pathologies, to evaluate the tolerability to modafinil, and to describe changes in subjective fatigue. METHODS: We enrolled 14 brainstem or diencephalic stroke (BDS) patients, 9 cortical stroke (CS) patients and 17 multiple sclerosis (MS) patients. The Fatigue Assessment Instrument severity scale was performed at baseline, after 3 months of modafinil and after 1 month of washout. Cognition, mood and somnolence were assessed. A subgroup of 14 patients underwent activity measures before and during treatment. RESULTS: Thirty-one patients completed the study (10 BDS, 9 CS, 12 MS). The responder profile is more frequent in MS than in CS (p = 0.04), and in BDS than in CS patients (p = 0.04). Actiwatch measures showed no changes in activity during, before and after therapy. CONCLUSION: Modafinil was tolerated in 75% of patients at small doses and seemed to improve the severity of fatigue in the MS and BDS groups but not in the CS group. There was no modification in measured physical activity.

Stressful life events and neuroticism as predictors of late-life versus early-life depression.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of depression in younger adults is related to the combination of long-standing factors such as personality traits (neuroticism) and more acute factors such as the subjective impact of stressful life events. Whether an increase in physical illnesses changes these associations in old age depression remains a matter of debate. METHODS: We compared 79 outpatients with major depression and 102 never-depressed controls; subjects included both young (mean age: 35 years) and older (mean age: 70 years) adults. Assessments included the Social Readjustment Rating Scale, NEO Personality Inventory and Cumulative Illness Rating Scale. Logistic regression models analyzed the association between depression and subjective impact of stressful life events while controlling for neuroticism and physical illness. RESULTS: Patients and controls experienced the same number of stressful life events in the past 12 months. However, in contrast to the controls, patients associated the events with a subjective negative emotional impact. Negative stress impact and levels of neuroticism, but not physical illness, significantly predicted depression in young age. In old age, negative stress impact was weakly associated with depression. In this age group, depressive illness was also determined by physical illness burden and neuroticism. CONCLUSIONS: Our data suggest that the subjective impact of life stressors, although rated as of the same magnitude, plays a less important role in accounting for depression in older age compared to young age. They also indicate an increasing weight of physical illness burden in the prediction of depression occurrence in old age.